NCAR
CAM T341- Jim Hack NCAR/ORNLLawrence Buja,
National Center for Atmospheric Research
Boulder, Colorado
Climate 2.0: Usable Climate Science and Services for Decision Makers
“Science exists to serve human welfare. It’s wonderful to have the opportunity given
us by society to do basic research, but in return, we have a very important moral
responsibility to apply that research to benefiting humanity.” Walter Orr Roberts
Lawrence Buja
National Center for Atmospheric Research
Boulder, Colorado
CLIMATE 2.0:
Usable Climate Science & Services
for Decision Makers
NCAR
Climate and Climate Models
The IPCC Process
A Dark Future: Geoengineering
Looking Forward: IPCC AR5
The Rise of Regional Modeling
Usable Science for Society
NCAR/NSF Scientific facilities
CISLComputational & Information Systems
NESLNCAR Earth System Laboratory
- US National Science Foundation FFRDC- 900 Staff, 500 Scientists/Engineers, 4 Boulder campuses- Governed by > 70 universities
EOLEarth Observing Laboratory
RAL Research Applications Laboratory
ISP: Integrated Science Program (crosscutting)
Spin, Science and Climate Change
“Climategate”
4 Core Conclusions from Climate Science
1. Climate Change is occurring.
2. Main cause is human activity.
3. Changes in climate are already
harming humans & the environment.
4. Harm is like to grow to higher levels
w/o extensive Adaptation & Mitigation
Robust results, independent of hacked
emails or minor errata in the IPCC report
“Society has three choices: Mitigate, Adapt or Suffer” John Holdren (US Science Adviser)
“Climate Change
is undeniable”
NCARTra
nsp
ort
atio
n
Fo
recast L
ead
Tim
e
Warnings & Alert
Coordination
Watches
Forecasts
Threats
Assessments
Guidance
Outlook
Pro
tectio
n o
f
Life
& P
rop
ert
y
Sp
ace
Op
era
tio
n
Re
cre
atio
n
Eco
sys
tem
Sta
te/L
oca
l
Pla
nnin
g
Envi
ronm
ent
Flo
od
Mitig
atio
n
& N
avi
ga
tio
n
Ag
ricultu
re
Re
se
rvo
ir
Co
ntr
ol
Ene
rgy
Co
mm
erc
e
Benefits
Hyd
rop
ow
er
Fir
e W
ea
the
r
He
alth
Forecast
Uncertainty
Minutes
Hours
Days
1 Week
2 Week
Months
Seasons
Years
Initial Conditions
Boundary Conditions
Weather vs Climate
Weather Prediction (WRF)
Climate
Prediction
(NRCM)
Climate
Change
(CESM)
Trenberth
The Earth Climate System
NCAR
CAM T341- Jim Hack/ORNL
What does a climate model look like?
NCAR
Climate of the last Millennium
Caspar AmmannNCAR/CGD
NCAR
Climate and Climate Models
The IPCC Process
A Dark Future: Geoengineering
Looking Forward: IPCC AR5
The Rise of Regional Modeling
Usable Climate for Society
NCAR
NSF/DOE IPCC ProjectNCAR, ORNL, NERSC, ANL
6-Year Timeline
2008: Climate Model/Data-systems development
2009: Climate Model Control Simulations
2010: IPCC Historical and Future Simulations
2011: Data Postprocessing & Analysis
2012: Scientific Synthesis
2013: Publication
Observations
of the
Earths Climate System
Simulations
Past, Present
Future Climate States
Ch. 10, Fig. 10.4, TS-32
Stage 3. Future Scenarios: 4 2000-2100 IPCC Scenarios from end of historical run
Commit 2100
B1 2100
A1B 2100
A1 2100
3. Future Scenarios
01000
Years
TS (G
lob
ally
ave
rage
d s
urf
ace
tem
per
atu
re)
Stage 1. 1870 control run: 1000 years with constant 1870 forcing: Solar, GHG, Volcanic Sulfate, O3
1. 1870 control
Stage 2. Historical: 1870-2000 run using time-evolving, observed, Solar, GHG, Volcanoes, O3
1870
2000
2. Historicala
Probablistic Climate Simulations
b c d e
18701870 1870 1870
20002000
20002000
NCAR
NCAR
2030: A Warmer and Wetter World
NCAR
Temperature
at 2030
Averages and Extremes
NCAR
Precipitation
at 2030
Averages and Extremes
Abrupt Transitions in the Summer Sea Ice
Observations
Simulated
5-year running mean
• Gradual forcing results in abrupt
Sept ice decrease
• Extent decreases from 80 to 20% coverage in 10 years.
“Abrupt”
transition
Simulation of Future Climate
Marika Holland, NCAR
If anything, we are being
much too conservative!
Is the IPCC being too Alarmist?
M. R. Manning, J. Edmonds, S. Emori, A. Grubler, K. Hibbard, F. Joos, M. Kainuma, R. F. Keeling, T. Kram, A. C. Manning, M. Meinshausen, R. Moss, N. Nakicenovic, K. Riahi, S. K. Rose, S. Smith, R. Swart & D. P. van
VuurenNature Geoscience 3, 376 - 377 (2010)doi:10.1038/ngeo880
Arctic September Sea Ice Extent
Observations and IPCC Projections
Observed Emissions vs SRES
Scenarios for IPCC AR4
NCAR
Climate and Climate Models
The IPCC Process
A Dark Future: Lessons from the
Past and Geoengineering
Looking Forward: IPCC AR5
The Rise of Regional Modeling
Usable Climate for Society
But, should
we really be
worried?
Lessons from the Past
If we continue on the “Business as
usual” scenario, significant changes
begin to be observed at 4x CO2
NCAR
Global Annual Mean Energy Budget
Annual Mean Surface Temperature
Permian coupled model run for
2700 years to new equilibrium state
Forcing of 10X increase in CO2and Permian paleogeography
Ts> = 8°C
CCSM3 T31X3
Kiehl and Shields
NCARWignall(2005)
Clear
Some
None
Evidence
Inefficient mixing seen
in Permian ocean:
Indicative of anoxia,
consistent with large
extinction event
Geoengineering strategies
• Space mirrors, (Wood, Angel)
• High Altitude Sulphur injections
• Seeding stratocumulus clouds
to brighten clouds
• Sequestration of CO2
• Iron Fertilization, ...
Phil Rasch NCAR
We are not proposing that geo-engineering be carried out!
We are proposing that the implications should be carefully
explored.
Title slide
From Church, White, & Arblaster
Mt Pinatubo eruption in the Philippines, June 15, 1991. Gases and solids injected 20 km into the stratosphere.
NCAR
NCAR
Add sulfate at a rate of 0.5 Pinatubo/yr
1650 Little Ice Age
1: IPCC A2
2: 0.3%
3: 0.3-0.9%
NCAR
2: 0.3%
3: 0.3-0.9%
4. Commitment
1. A2
Maintaining A2 TS at commitment level by reducing solar irradiance
Question: These geoengineering approaches both involve “dimming” the sun. What is
the impact on global food production of a 1% decrease in incoming solar radiation
NCAR
Climate and Climate Models
The IPCC Process
A Dark Future: Geoengineering
Looking Forward: IPCC AR5
The Rise of Regional Modeling
Usable Climate for Society
IPCC Modeling Centers & AR5 Timeline
T42 2.8°
FV 2.0°
T85 1.4°
FV 1.0°
T170 0.7°
FV 0.5°
T340 .36°
FV 0.25°
FV 0.1°
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Ho
rizo
nta
l G
rid
Siz
e (
Km
)310km
220km
160km
110km
78km
55km
39km
28km
11km
Lawrence Buja (NCAR)
GlobalGeneral Atm/Ocn
Circulation
Continental Scale
Flow
Carbon Cycle
+ BGC Spinups
Regional
MJO/MLC
Convergence
IPCC AR31998
IPCC AR42004 4TF
Sub-Regional
Hurricanes
IPCC AR52010 500TF
CCSM Grand Challenge2010 1PF
Source: GSFC
CCSM at ¼ ° ATM 1/10°OCN
Courtesy Dr. David Bader, PCMDI/LLNL/DOE
IPCC AR5 (2013) Scenarios
1. IPCC “Classic + ” Mitigation Scenarios:
• 100 & 300-year climate change simulations
• Medium resolution
• Core “required” + optional Tier 1 and Tier 2 simulations
• Carbon, Nitrogen & Biogeochemical cycles
• 4 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)
from IAM community
• Quantify investment return of mitigation strategies
2. New Climate Change “Adaptation” Simulations:
• Short-term (30-year) climate predictions
• Single scenario
• High-resolution (0.5 or 0.25 resolution)
• For impacts, policy and decision making communities.
2010
2030
3. Future Scenario
01000
Years
TS
(G
lob
ally
ave
rag
ed
surf
ace
tem
pe
ratu
re)
1. 1965 Spin-up
Deterministic Climate Prediction
2. Historical(Data Assimilation)
NCAR
RCPs in perspective – CO2 emissions
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
1202000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
Em
issio
ns (
GtC
O2)
MiniCAM 4.5
IMAGE 2.6
AIM 6.0
MES-A2R 8.5
IMAGE 2.9
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
Em
issi
on
s (M
tN2O
)
Stabilization range (10-90th percentile)
Baseline range (10-90th percentile)
Post-SRES (min/max)
Selected scenarios (min/max)
( 671ppm, +3.7 , NIES )
( 900ppm, +4.5 , IIASA )
( 550ppm, +--- , PNNL )
( 424ppm, <2 , MNP )
( 370ppm, <2 , MNP )
From Moss et al., 2008
NCAR
CCSM4 IPCC AR5 Simulations
NCAR IBM P575 “Bluefire”
NCAR
Climate and Climate Models
The IPCC Process
A Dark Future: Geoengineering
Looking Forward: IPCC AR5
The Rise of Regional Modeling
Usable Climate for Society
Image courtesy of Canada DND
Climate 2.0 - Usable Science for Society
The fundamental question that society is asking
of climate science has dramatically changed.
Climate 1.0 Is anthropogenic climate change occurring?• Classic, low-resolution, global climate modeling (past 40 years)• After IPCC AR4 findings, the question is now….
Climate 2.0 What is the impact of this climate change
on our coupled human & natural systems?
• Magnitude and speed? Direct and indirect impacts?
• Adaptation and mitigation - options & limits?
• Regional/Local focus on “usable” science• Sustainable Systems: Energy, Food, Water, Health, Cities, Ecosystems
• Societal Impacts: GIS, extremes, climate services
Addressing these much more complex, questions requires:• Vast improvements to existing climate tools ( CESM & WRF/NRCM )
• Integrating new approaches, priorities, capabilities,
• New collaborators & partners
NCAR
NCAR’s very high-resolutionWeather Research Forecast Model
WRF Real-time 36hr Prediction
at 1.33 km Resolution
Radar Observations for
Time of Prediction
(Weisman 2008)
Springtime storms
NCAR
Precision WRF: WRF-Hurricane,
WRF-Chem, WRF-Health, WRF-Crop
WRF Chem predicting CO concentrations across US
based on known emissions and prevailing weather
(Barth 2010)Barth
NCAR
NCAR
WRF Example: Extreme Applications
Hurricane
Simulation
62 m Resolution
Resolving
Turbulence Scales
(Rotunno 2009)
NCAR
Regional Climate Simulation for 2046
Holland
NCAR
NCAR
Multi-decadal Regional Climate Predictions of High-
Impact Weather Over North America & the Caribbean
12 km
36 km
4 km
4 km
• Global Model: 3 Ensembles from 1950-2060
• NRCM: 1995-2005 Obs, 1995-2005, 2020-2030, 2045-2055,
• 3 ensembles at 36km, 1 at 12 km, specific cases at 4 km.
• Use of statistical downscaling to fill in intermediate periodsGreg Holland
Application of Indices to Directly Assess
Damage from Weather Extremes
3 2( ) 5( ) 5( )65 50 15
65,
7, 7,
m h t
m
t t
v R vWHI
For v
If v v
The Willis
Hurricane Index
vm is the maximum winds
Rh is the radius of hurricane force winds
Vt is the translational speed
Now being applied to both real-time WRF forecasts and
NRCM climate predictions
Recent extension to coastal infrastructure
(Holland and Owens 2009)
CAPRA Example:
Costa Rican earthquake and historical hurricane risk at canton level, using a general socioeconomic model to assess exposed value and vulnerability.
What is Costa Rica’s risk in 2050?
NCAR
WRF Next Generation Model
Icosahedral grid with local refinement capability;
- For both weather and regional earth system predictions
- Basis for LANL’s next-gen climate ocean model
- Includes Coupled Data Assimilation
(Skamarock 2010)
40-320 km grid baroclinic wave simulation, 10 days
Vertical velocity contours at 1, 5, and 10 km (c.i. = 3 m/s)
500 m Hex grid supercell at 2 hours
NCAR
Climate and Climate Models
The IPCC Process
A Dark Future: Geoengineering
Looking Forward: IPCC AR5
The Rise of Regional Modeling
Usable Science for Society
Weather, Climate and HealthMary Hayden, Andy Monaghan
Phoenix: An Framework of local Vulnerability
& Adaptive capacity to Extreme Heat
Ghana: The WX-Meningitis Project
Uganda: CDC Modeling Human
Plague Incidence
North America: Aedes aegyti range
expansion in the Americas
Mexico: Dengue transects
Resource
management
Impacts, outcomes,
decision-making
Resource use
and
management
N-VIA: Quantifying Societal Impactsto Climate and Weather Risks
Governance
Decisions
Policies
Scenarios
(N-VIA: NCAR - Vulnerability, Impacts, Adaptation framework)
Extreme Heat Vulnerability Framework
Plague in Uganda
• Plague is a highly virulent and flea-borne
disease caused by Yersinia pestis.
• Infected fleas travel on rats that intermittently
come into contact with humans
• Local rat populations fluctuate in response to
weather and climate variability
53
Hayden and Monaghan, NCAR
NCAR/CDC Collaboration
NCAR is working with CDC to:
• Generate a multi-year high resolution climate dataset over Uganda
for employment in a model to simulate plague incidence
• Improve surveillance for plague cases by training the regional
network of traditional healers to diagnose and refer suspect plague
cases to clinics
• Couple spatio-temporal risk maps with focal dissemination of health
information and provider training to target high risk populations
54
Hayden and Monaghan, NCAR
NCAR
WRF Model Domain and Topography
Terrain Elevation (m)
SUDAN
UGANDA
D.R.C.
Lake
Albert
55Hayden and Monaghan, NCAR
NCAR
2-m Temperature (C)
NCEP-DOE-II WRF 2-kmWRF 18-km
Problem: Current climate datasets are too coarse (~200-km resolution)
to resolve the complex topography and land use variability in the WN
Solution: Dynamical Downscaling over WN: 200-km to 2-km resolution
Example for 2 meter Temperature:
56
Hayden and Monaghan, NCAR
1999-2008 Annual Mean Climate Fields
Total RainfallNear-surface Temperature
57Hayden and Monaghan, NCAR
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Pre
cip
itat
ion
(m
m/m
on
th)
Month
RAIN
Plague cases are associated with wetter areas above the
Rift Valley escarpment
• Case and control locations were
discriminated based on the following climatic variables (10 yr averages).
•Total precipitation in February
(dry season) (+)
•Total precipitation in October (wet
season) (+)
•January specific humidity (-)
•Above 1300 m (+)
•AUC = 0.93
MacMillan et al., in prep Hayden and Monaghan, NCAR
Traditional Healers
59Hayden and Monaghan, NCAR
Training
60
Hayden and Monaghan, NCAR
Low-literacy educational materials
61
Hayden and Monaghan, NCAR
NCAR
The Challenge…Maintaining healthy national and local economies,
in a rapidly changing world of increasing population and GNP,
all accessing a finite resource base.
It’s all about sustainability of Energy, Food & Water…
While maintaining your critical Human systems
- Transportation, Agriculture, Health & Quality of life…
Without disrupting your critical natural ecosystems…
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Thanks! Any Questions?
Lawrence Buja, National Center for Atmospheric Research
www.ral.ucar.edu/csap
NCAR
Extra
Slides