Download - City of Detroit Cash Flow Forecast Report
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4A
+
8F
Cash
Flow
Forecast
Report
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TableofContents
Page Title Comments
4 CashPosition City'scashpositionon10/28/11of$96.1million
6 GeneralFund:Variance17weeksended10/28/11 Variancebetween08/09/11Forecast(OriginalForecast)andactualreceipts
anddisbursementsforthe17weeks ended10/28/11
9 GeneralFund:Reforecast13weeksending01/27/12 13weekreforecastofcashreceiptsanddisbursementsthrough01/27/12
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10 GeneralFund:Reforecast4A+8F MonthlyreforecastthroughendofFY2012,06/30/12with$44millionshortfall
12 16 Water&Sewerage:Variancereportandreforecast Variancereportfor17weeksended10/28/11andmonthlyreforecastthrough06/30/11
18 22 DDOT(Transportation)Variancereportandreforecast Variancereportfor17weeksended10/28/11andmonthlyreforecastthrough06/30/11
24 28 MunicipalParking:Variancereportandreforecast Variancereportfor17weeksended10/28/11andmonthlyreforecastthrough06/30/11
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Cash
Position
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Variance
Report
&
ReforecastGeneralFund
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Reforecastthrough06/30/12
$inmillionsEndingcashonJune30,2012(perOriginalForecast) 54.9$ Note
Neteffectoflowerpropertytaxcollections currentyear (18.1) 1
Propertytax
distributions
prior
year (11.9)
2
Incometaxcollections (11.5) 3
Gamingtaxes 4.2 4
Municipalservicesfee:casinos (1.2) 5
DistributableStateaid 15.1 6
Payroll (5.1) 7
Pension (6.5) 8
Subsidy (1.5) 9
Other 3.5
EndingcashonJune30,2012(reforecast) 22.0
Riskadjustments
IncrementalDDOTsubsidy (18.2) 10
Incometaxrevenueinitiatives (22.9) 11
Electricalfees(DPS) 12
Parkingbootinitiative (10.0) 13
Costsavings (15.0) 14
Totalriskadjustments (66.1)
EndingcashbalanceonJune30,2012(riskadjusted) (44.1)$
Notes:
1. Loweractualreceiptstodateassumedtobepermanent
2. Distributionsrelatedtoprioryearwerehigherthanforecast;amountassumedtobepermanent
3. Loweractualreceiptstodateassumedtobepermanent
4. $4.2millionincrementalcasinotaxreceivedforcasinoreceiptsgreaterthan$400million
5. ActualreceiptinAugustwas$1.2millionlowerthanforecast;assumedtobepermanent
6. Higheractualreceipttodateassumedtobepermanent
7. $2.4millionduetopaymentrelatedtowithholdingsfromprioryear;$2.6millionFY2012varianceassumedtobepermanent
8. EstimatedGRScontributionpaymentsrevisedbasedonmostrecentactuarialreport
9.
Includes$1.5
million
of
permanent
variance
for
Airport
and
Museum
subsidies.
DDOT
subsidy
variance
considered
timing
related
10.BasedonDDOTOctober28,2011cashforecastforFY2012;totalriskof$18.2million
11.Assumesportionofincometaxrevenueinitiativesarenotrealized,basedonactualperformancetodate
12.DPSriskadjustmentremovedbasedonagreementwithDPStopay$15millionofpastdueamount
13.Reductionduetopotentialdelayofbootrevenueinitiative
14.Assumes$15millionoftheCityCouncilmandated$25millionofcostsavingsarenotrealizedduringFY2012
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VarianceReport&Reforecast
WaterandSewerage
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Variance17weeksended10/28/11
$inmillionsEndingcashbalanceasof10/28/11
Actual 32.8$
Forecast(per
Original
Forecast) 46.2
Variance (13.4)
Variancedetail Note
Lowerwater/seweragebillingcollections (39.5) 1
Highercollectionofdelinquentwater/seweragebills 7.4 2
Higherpayrolldisbursements (1.3)
Lowerbenefitspayments 11.4 3
HigherA/Pdisbursements (4.7) 4
HigherIABpayments (8.3) 5
LowerI&E
Fund
set
asides 32.0
6
Highersetasidesfordebtpayments (9.8) 7
Other (0.6)
Totalvariance (13.4)$
Notes:
1. Expectedtobetimingrelated
2. Collectionofdelinquentbillswerenotforecast
3. Expectedtobetimingrelated
4. Relatedtopastduepaymentsthatwerenotforecast
5.
Timingrelated;
entire
FY
2012
payment
made
in
September
2011
6. Expectedtobetimingrelated;setasidesmadeasfundsareavailable
7. Expectedtobetimingrelated;setasidesmadeasfundsareavailable
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PRELIMINARYDRAFTWater&Sewerage
ReforecastFY20124A+8F
$inmillionsEndingcashonJune30,2012(perOriginalForecast) 44.3$ Note
Pastdue
collections 8.3
1
Capitalprojectsreimbursements 0.7 2
Investmentearnings (3.5) 3
Misc.receipts (3.8) 4
Payroll (2.0) 5
Benefits (3.8) 6
Pension (0.6) 7
A/P (4.7) 8
Utilities (5.4) 9
IAB 18.2
10Misc.disbursements (4.3) 11
Other 0.2
EndingcashonJune30,2012(reforecast) 43.4$
Notes:
1. Higheractualpastduebillingcollections
2. Highercapitalprojectreimbursementsforecastduetohighercapitalprojectrelateddisbursementsforecast
3.
Removedinvestment
earnings
collections
due
to
current
market
conditions
and
minimal
cash
available
to
invest
4. Removedmiscellaneousreceiptcollectionsduetoactualrunrate;actualmiscellaneousreceiptshavebeenminimal
5. Higherpayrolldisbursementsforecastduetoactualrunrate
6. Higheractualbenefitspaymentsduetopastduepayments
7. Loweractualpensionpayments;actualFY2011pastduepaymentlowerthanforecast
8. HigheractualA/Pdisbursementsduetopastduepayments
9. Higherutilitiespaymentsforecastduetoactualrunrate
10. LoweractualIABpayments;FY2011actualassumedinforecast,additionalresearchunderwaytodeterminewhetherpastduepayments
wereincluded
11.
Highermiscellaneous
disbursements
forecast
due
to
actual
run
rate
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VarianceReport&Reforecast
DDOT
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PRELIMINARYDRAFTTransportation
Variance17weeksended10/28/11
$inmillionsEndingcashbalanceasof10/28/2011
Actual 7.8$
Forecast(per
Original
Forecast) 3.2
Variance 4.5
Variancedetail Note
Highercollections 0.5
Lowergrantcollections (4.7) 1
HigherGeneralFundsubsidy 1.5
Lowerbenefitspayments 6.0 2
HigherIABpayments (4.0) 3
HigherA/Pdisbursements (7.4) 4
Lower
grant
disbursements 2.1
5LowerGeneralFundloanrepayment 8.0 6
HigherDTC(PeopleMover)grantrelateddisbursements 2.1 7
Other 0.5
Total 4.5$
Notes:
1. Expectedtobetimingrelated
2. $3.4millionpastduepaymentoffsetby$9.4millionofcurrentyearpaymentsnotmade
3. Timingrelated;entireFY2012paymentmade
4.
Primarilydue
to
higher
past
due
payments
5. Expectedtobetimingrelated
6. Loanrepaymentwillnotoccur;permanentvariance
7. Expectedtobetimingrelated;full$3.4millionpaymentwasforecastinOctober
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Transportation
ReforecastFY20124A+8F
$inmillionsEndingcashonJune30,2012(perOriginalForecast) (25.5)$ Note
Collections 1.5
1Benefits (1.5) 2
Pension (1.2) 3
A/P (7.4) 4
Maintenancegrant 7.4 5
GeneralFundloanrepayment 8.0 6
Other 0.5
EndingcashonJune30,2012(reforecast) (18.2)$
Notes:
1. Actualcollectionshigherthanforecast
2. Higheractualpastduebenefitspayments($3.4millionpastduepayment,$1.9millionpaymenthadbeenforecast)
3. Higheractualpensionpaymentsduetopastduepayments
4. HigheractualA/Pdisbursementsprimarilyduetopastduepayments
5. Lowermaintenancegrantdisbursements;removed$8millionrelatedtopayrollbeingcapturedinpayrolldisbursements
6. GrantrelateddisbursementswerenotmadeonDDOT'sbehalfbyGeneralFund;loanhadnotbeenmadesorepaymentnotrequired
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VarianceReport&Reforecast
MunicipalParking
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Parking
Variance17weeksended10/28/11
$inmillionsEndingcashbalanceasof10/28/2011
Actual 4.8$
Forecast
(per
Original
Forecast) 5.0
Variance (0.2)
VarianceDetail Note
Highergarage&lotcollection 0.6
HigherIABpayments (0.7) 1
Other (0.1)
Total (0.2)$
Notes:
1.
$0.6million
entire
FY
2012
payment
made
(timing)
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Parking
ReforecastFY20124A+8F
$inmillionsEndingcashonJune30,2012(perOriginalForecast) 5.2$ Note
Collections 0.6
1Revenueinitiativecollections (0.2) 2
A/P (0.1) 3
IAB (0.1) 4
Other 0.0
EndingcashonJune30,2012(reforecast) 5.3$
Notes:
1. Actualcollectionshigherthanforecast
2.
Revenueinitiative
collections
removed
as
project
has
not
yet
been
approved
3. HigheractualA/Pdisbursementsduetopastduepayments
4. HigheractualIABdisbursementsduetopastduepayments,partiallyoffsetbylowerFY2012payment
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Disclaimer
Theattachedscheduleofcashflowvariances(theVarianceAnalysis)andcashflows(theForecastedCashFlows),itsassumptionsandunderlyingdataaretheproductoftheCityofDetroit(COD)
anditsmanagement(Management)andconsistofinformationobtainedsolelyfromCOD.
WithrespecttoprospectivefinancialinformationrelativetoCOD,Ernst&YoungLLP(EY)didnotexamine,compileorapplyagreeduponprocedurestosuchinformationinaccordancewithattestation
standardsestablishedbytheAICPAandEYexpressesnoassuranceofanykindontheinformationpresented. EYdidnotassistinthepreparationorassemblyofCOD'sprospectivefinancialinformation
orinthedevelopmentofanyassumptionstherein.
ItisCODsresponsibilitytomakeitsowndecisionbasedontheinformationavailabletoit. Managementhastheknowledge,experienceandabilitytoformitsownconclusionsrelatedtoCODsVariance
AnalysisandForecastedCashFlows.
Therewillusuallybedifferencesbetweenforecastedandactualresultsbecauseeventsandcircumstancesfrequentlydonotoccurasexpectedandthosedifferencesmaybematerial.EYtakesno
responsibilityfortheachievementofforecastedresults. Accordingly,relianceonthisreportisprohibitedbyanythirdpartyastheprojectedfinancialinformationcontainedhereinissubjecttomaterial
changeandmaynotreflectactualresults.
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