![Page 1: Citizen Science and Big Data: finding the signal amidst the noise](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062315/568165bc550346895dd8bb7c/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Citizen Science and Big Data: finding the signal amidst the noise
Nick IsaacBiological Records Centre, NERC Centre for Ecology & Hydrology@drnickisaac
![Page 2: Citizen Science and Big Data: finding the signal amidst the noise](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062315/568165bc550346895dd8bb7c/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
CitizenScience Big Data
Environmental Challenges
Can Citizen Science deliver the data we need to address the environmental challenges of the 21st century?
![Page 3: Citizen Science and Big Data: finding the signal amidst the noise](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062315/568165bc550346895dd8bb7c/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Environmental Challenges
FERA
![Page 4: Citizen Science and Big Data: finding the signal amidst the noise](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062315/568165bc550346895dd8bb7c/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Big Biodiversity Data is here
www.cloudtimes.com
![Page 5: Citizen Science and Big Data: finding the signal amidst the noise](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062315/568165bc550346895dd8bb7c/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
![Page 6: Citizen Science and Big Data: finding the signal amidst the noise](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062315/568165bc550346895dd8bb7c/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
http://www.entangled-bank.org.uk/index.php
![Page 7: Citizen Science and Big Data: finding the signal amidst the noise](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062315/568165bc550346895dd8bb7c/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
www.left.zoo.ox.ac.uk
SUMMARY ECOLOGICAL VALUE
![Page 8: Citizen Science and Big Data: finding the signal amidst the noise](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062315/568165bc550346895dd8bb7c/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Citizen Science
Citizens
Researchers
Publications
Data collection Feedback, Outreach
![Page 9: Citizen Science and Big Data: finding the signal amidst the noise](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062315/568165bc550346895dd8bb7c/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
![Page 10: Citizen Science and Big Data: finding the signal amidst the noise](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062315/568165bc550346895dd8bb7c/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Citizen Science is the new black
http://www.ceh.ac.uk/products/publications/understanding-citizen-science.html
![Page 11: Citizen Science and Big Data: finding the signal amidst the noise](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062315/568165bc550346895dd8bb7c/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Citizen Science Environmental Challenges
paisagemfabricada.com.br
![Page 12: Citizen Science and Big Data: finding the signal amidst the noise](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062315/568165bc550346895dd8bb7c/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
iBats: Citizen Science Big Data
www.ibats.org.uk
![Page 13: Citizen Science and Big Data: finding the signal amidst the noise](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062315/568165bc550346895dd8bb7c/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
The Big Question
• Can Citizen Science deliver the data we need to address the environmental challenges of the 21st century?
![Page 14: Citizen Science and Big Data: finding the signal amidst the noise](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062315/568165bc550346895dd8bb7c/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
The Medium-sized Question
• Can we use existing Citizen Science data to report on the status of biodiversity?
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20100
20
40
60
80
100
120
Year
Num
ber o
f site
s
![Page 15: Citizen Science and Big Data: finding the signal amidst the noise](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062315/568165bc550346895dd8bb7c/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Target 12By 2020 the extinction of known threatened species has been prevented and their conservation status, particularly of those most in decline, has been improved and sustained.
![Page 16: Citizen Science and Big Data: finding the signal amidst the noise](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062315/568165bc550346895dd8bb7c/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
• Population time-series• Annual estimates of status• Taxonomically restricted
How do we know if the targets have been met?
• Red List indices• Many species• Temporally-imprecise
Botham et al (2011) UK Butterfly Monitoring Scheme Annual Report 2011.
![Page 17: Citizen Science and Big Data: finding the signal amidst the noise](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062315/568165bc550346895dd8bb7c/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Occurrence records: the third way
• 440 million records on
• 90 million records on
• Big Data Citizen Science Environmental Challenges
• Huge potential to detect signals of change
• But the data are noisy!
![Page 18: Citizen Science and Big Data: finding the signal amidst the noise](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062315/568165bc550346895dd8bb7c/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Problem: ad hoc recording is biased
![Page 19: Citizen Science and Big Data: finding the signal amidst the noise](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062315/568165bc550346895dd8bb7c/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Problem: ad hoc recording is biased
• in time• in space• detectability• effort per visit
19701975
19801985
19901995
20002005
201010
100
1000
10000
100000
1000000
ButterfliesBryophyteOrthopteraMyriapodIsopodsColeopteraMothsBeesWaspsAntsHoverfliesOdonata
Num
ber o
f rec
ords
Effort
N
umbe
r of S
peci
es
![Page 20: Citizen Science and Big Data: finding the signal amidst the noise](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062315/568165bc550346895dd8bb7c/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Aggregation into Atlas periods
![Page 21: Citizen Science and Big Data: finding the signal amidst the noise](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062315/568165bc550346895dd8bb7c/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Selection & Correction methods
Selection• Remove the bias, leave the signal• The ‘well-sampled set’
Correction• by time period, by year, by visit• in space
![Page 22: Citizen Science and Big Data: finding the signal amidst the noise](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062315/568165bc550346895dd8bb7c/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Occupancy: modelling data collection
Extant Extinct Occupancy (unobserved)
Statistical separation of “state” and “data generation” processes into separate submodels
Observations
Data generation process
Year 1 Year 2 Year 4Year 3 Year 5
![Page 23: Citizen Science and Big Data: finding the signal amidst the noise](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062315/568165bc550346895dd8bb7c/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Testing the solutions by simulation
• Simple ‘correction’ models fail easily
• Selection methods are robust but less powerful
• Occupancy performs well• in combination with correction and selection
Isaac et al (in press) Methods in Ecology & Evolution
![Page 24: Citizen Science and Big Data: finding the signal amidst the noise](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062315/568165bc550346895dd8bb7c/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Trends in British Biodiversity 1990-2000• Good news: Median change +2.4%• Bad news: >1000 species would qualify as VU or worse
![Page 25: Citizen Science and Big Data: finding the signal amidst the noise](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062315/568165bc550346895dd8bb7c/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Identifying drivers of change
Declines in 2-spot ladybird are attributable to the arrival of the invasive Harlequin ladybird
Similar patterns across 8 native species in both GB & Belgium
Roy et al (2012) Diversity & Distributions, 18: 717–725
Mike Majerus
davidkennardphotography.com
![Page 26: Citizen Science and Big Data: finding the signal amidst the noise](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062315/568165bc550346895dd8bb7c/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
The Priority Species Indicator
Source: Biodiversity in Your Pocket 2013
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Inde
x (1
970
= 10
0)
95% Confidence interval max
95% Confidence interval min
United Kingdom
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Long term
Perc
enta
ge o
f spe
cies
Decline Increase
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Inde
x (1
970
= 10
0)
95% Confidence interval max
95% Confidence interval min
United Kingdom
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Long term Short term
Perc
enta
ge o
f spe
cies
Decline Increase
![Page 27: Citizen Science and Big Data: finding the signal amidst the noise](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062315/568165bc550346895dd8bb7c/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Technology-An easy way to record
-Great potential for harvesting meta-data
-Provide instant feedback to the citizen scientist
![Page 28: Citizen Science and Big Data: finding the signal amidst the noise](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062315/568165bc550346895dd8bb7c/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
"The more instantaneously feedback can be provided, the more motivating it is“
www.ebird.org
Phenology Species frequency Species distribution
![Page 29: Citizen Science and Big Data: finding the signal amidst the noise](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062315/568165bc550346895dd8bb7c/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
@NatureNearMe
![Page 30: Citizen Science and Big Data: finding the signal amidst the noise](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062315/568165bc550346895dd8bb7c/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
@NatureNearMe
![Page 31: Citizen Science and Big Data: finding the signal amidst the noise](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062315/568165bc550346895dd8bb7c/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Looking to the future: more questions
• Which organisms should we prioritize?• Earthworms, Mycorrhizae ….
• How to build and nourish a network of citizen scientists?• Feedback, motivation
• What challenges and opportunities from new data types?• Barcoding, eDNA
• What environmental challenges are on the horizon?• Nanoparticles, Geo-engineering, Biodiversity offsetting
![Page 32: Citizen Science and Big Data: finding the signal amidst the noise](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062315/568165bc550346895dd8bb7c/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
![Page 33: Citizen Science and Big Data: finding the signal amidst the noise](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062315/568165bc550346895dd8bb7c/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Conclusions
We can report on biodiversity targets for a much wider range of taxa than previously possible
A little bit of meta-data would go a long way
Support the citizens to become more scientific
Addressing big environmental challenges requires fresh thinking
![Page 34: Citizen Science and Big Data: finding the signal amidst the noise](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062315/568165bc550346895dd8bb7c/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Acknowledgments
Bill Sutherland
Chris Thomas
Tom August
David Roy
Gary Powney
Michael Pocock
Arco van Strien