CIO Trend ReportInfo-Tech Research Group Inc. is a global leader in providing IT research and advice. Info-Tech’s products and services combine actionable insight and relevant advice with ready-to-use tools and templates that cover the full spectrum of IT concerns. © 1997-2018 Info-Tech Research Group Inc.
IntroductionHow can the business identify and seize relevant technology at the height of its promise?Make no mistake; in 2018 the CIO is a business partner. The pressure is on to move beyond supporting operations to become a driving force behind business growth. In the sea of emerging tech, you are the business' navigator. Do you know where your business needs to go?
Let business outcomes be your compass.A strategic direction is essential to making the right technological investments. Not every trend is worth pursuing, but missing the ones that are can be costly. An outcomes-focused approach gives you a framework to strategically evaluate emerging technology's alignment with your business’ direction. Use a business-outcomes-centered outlook to effectively separate opportunities from distractions.
Go from browsing to doing.Learn what is driving each trend and how it has evolved from previous years. Most importantly, use the business outcomes framework presented in this report to create the foundation for your adoption strategy. Determine which trends are worth your attention, chart an adoption course, and build a business case for your stakeholders.
— Info-Tech Business Vision Survey
A recent survey of over 20,000 IT and business executives concluded that innovation leadership is three times as important as it is perceived to be, in determining overall satisfaction with IT.
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This year introduces four key trends that draw their impact from both technological innovation and an alignment with key business outcomes.
Each trend represents the convergence of several previously trending technologies to enable new advances that are greater than the sum of their parts. Assessing these transformative technologies with an eye to their ability to drive business outcomes reveals their unprecedented opportunities for business impact.
Trends User-Facing AI
Blockchain 2.0
Robotics
Digital Twin
01
02
03
04
EXECUTIVE BRIEF
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2018 Trends Opportunities to
Drive Business Outcomes
2017 Trends Strategic Priorities
The Digital Ecosystem
Immersive UXAutonomous Machines
Automated Cognition
Distributed Validation
Everything-as-a-Platform
Decentralized Making
Opportunitiesfor Business Impact
In 2018, your priority is to drive business outcomes through emerging technology.
Blockchain 2.0 Digital Twin Robotics User-Facing AI
EXECUTIVE BRIEF
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Trend Summaries
User-Facing AI
01Robotics
02Digital Twin
The boom of IoT and Industry 4.0 has created an
abundance of data. So much so that an entire system can
be characterized, and the collected data used to create a real-time, living model – its digital twin. The opportunities for decentralized monitoring and predictive analytics are
truly extraordinary.
03Blockchain
2.0
The blockchain has outgrown bitcoin. Innovations are being
developed to tailor distributed ledger technology to specific use cases outside of cryptocurrency, creating
possibilities for scale, contract enforcement, and
returning data ownership to the individual.
04
EXECUTIVE BRIEF
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Increasing robotic sophistication is allowing
machines to work with humans, but not replace them.
Emerging opportunities to augment human performance
means businesses can use technology to make the most
of their human capital.
Communication barriers between humans and
machines are coming down. Businesses can leverage this
emerging connection to automate basic customer service tasks, improving
experiences for customers and users alike.
User-Facing AI
“27% of consumers weren’t sure if their last customer service interaction was with a human or a chatbot.”
— PwC, "Bot.Me: A revolutionarypartnership"
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EXECUTIVE BRIEF
Robotics
47% of jobs in the US could be replaced by robotics and other computerisation by 2034. 58% of CEOs intend to reduce headcount over the next 5 years as a result of robotics.
— PwC, "Pulse on robotics"
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EXECUTIVE BRIEF
Digital Twin
Using digital twin technology to monitor and optimize wind turbine operation can boost energy production up to 20%, resulting in around $100 million in extra revenue over the life of a turbine.
— GE Renewable Energy, "A Breakdown of the Digital Wind Farm"
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EXECUTIVE BRIEF
Blockchain 2.0
28% of CEOs in major US companies have spent $5 million or more in blockchain technology. An additional 25% of CEOs in major US companies expect to spent $5 million or more in blockchain technology in the coming calendar year.— Deloitte US, "Blockchain survey 2017"
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EXECUTIVE BRIEF
All of these trends have the potential to transform not just the bottom line, but the business itself, changing its internal processes and external positioning within industry and society.
Several axes have emerged along which this transformation can take place. These axes are represented by five key business outcomes.
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EXECUTIVE BRIEF
AutomationThe ability to be lean through the replacement of aspects of human-based organizational processes and activities with technology.
IntegrationThe ability of the technology in the trend to integrate with the technology of customers, partners, and suppliers.
ScaleThe ability for the product and/or service offering in the trend to quickly increase capacity.
IntelligenceThe ability for the trend technology to leverage organizational outputs to make processes smarter and more efficient.
ImpactThe ability of the trend to deliver a positive or negative social impact on user and customer experience.
Five Key Business Outcomes
Innovate Purposefully
EXECUTIVE BRIEF
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What outcomes is your business hoping to achieve? Which trends have the most impact potential in these domains? Focus your efforts for the biggest return on investment.
Use outcomes-based thinking to zero-in on the trends that matter to your business. We scored each trend according to its potential for impact on each of the five key business outcomes. The resulting table should be your first strategic touchpoint.
Identify at a glance which trends are most relevant to your business' current direction. Cut through the deluge of information and get to action sooner.
User-Facing AI
Robotics
Digital Twin
Blockchain 2.0
How to read this report
Get current information
Description:• Each trend is introduced with a key point
summary and statistic, highlighting its growth and impact.
In 2018, technology is an opportunity to create lasting business impact.
TREND REPORT 2018 / Info-Tech Research Group
Business Outcomes:• We present five key domains of business
impact, and each trend's relevance to those domains.
Viewing trends through an outcomes-focused lens allows you to align innovative initiatives with key business objectives.
Case Study:• Each trend is illustrated by a case study
that examines how the trend was leveraged to achieve the desired business outcomes.
Every organization will approach the business outcomes in its own way. What does success look like for your business?
Resources & Recommendations:• We provide links to relevant Info-Tech
resources for each trend. We are constantly growing our toolkit so
that you can grow yours.
Evolution:• For each trend, we highlight the cutting
edge of what is new for 2018.
Technology doesn't stay still. Keep abreast of the latest developments to give yourself an edge in selecting the best tool for your purpose.
12
Evaluate strategically
Signals & Drivers:• We analyze the driving forces behind each
trend, and the way it is manifesting in different scenarios.
Understand the technological and societal changes that are driving each trend to determine whether they are relevant to your business.
Put theory into practice
Risk & Uncertainty:• We list the key risks and critical
unknowns that result from technological advancement.
No matter your organization's risk tolerance, awareness of the risk is always the first step. Learn what questions you should be asking.
EXECUTIVE BRIEF
Bibliography
EXECUTIVE BRIEF
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CIO staff. "IT-business alignment (finally) gets real." State of the CIO. CIO.com. 24 Jan. 2018. Web.
Deloitte US. “Innovation: Blockchain survey 2017.” Deloitte United States. Web. Accessed 7 Feb. 2018.
GE Renewable Energy. "A Breakdown of the Digital Wind Farm." Web. Accessed 1 Feb. 2018.
KPMG. "CIO Survey 2017." Web. Accessed 24 Nov. 2017.
PwC. “Bot.Me: A revolutionary partnership.” Consumer Intelligence Series. Web. Accessed 25 Jan. 2018.
PwC. “CEO Agenda: Pulse on Robotics.” 2016. Web. Accessed 5 Jan. 2018.
Volans. “Breakthrough Business Models: Exponentially More Social, Lean, Integrated and Circular.” Web. Accessed 18 Jan. 2018.
User-Facing AIThe disappearing user interface
What is user-facing AI?
Imagine if launching a video conference were as simple as saying, "Please call the main boardroom.” The call would then automatically be put through by a virtual assistant running a natural language processing algorithm.
Artificial intelligence (AI) in user-facing scenarios refers to the automation of user- or customer-facing tasks. The end goal is two-fold: to decrease the burden on human support service providers while increasing user satisfaction.
This development comes at the junction of two previous trends: automated cognition (intelligent systems) and immersive UX. It goes beyond previous thinking of simplifying user interfaces to removing them altogether. Intelligent machines are learning to live in our ecosystem and speak our language, sometimes literally. AI is also reaching us using digital tools we already have, as with chatbotsinteracting over Facebook messenger to book flights or doctor’s appointments.
This will impact customer satisfaction as well as user efficiency within the organization.
— Capgemini Digital Transformation Institute, “Turning AI into concrete value: the successful implementers’ toolkit”
“75% of organizations using
AI enhance customer
satisfaction by more than
10%.”
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What’s new in 2018?Previously, the focus surrounding human-computer interfaces was on digitizing the user's environment, creating a more immersive experience using technology: “This new immersed individual [was] using technology in increasingly complex and different ways" (CIO Trend Report 2017).
In 2018, immersive technology becomes intelligent. Artificial intelligence, which has excelled in cognitive analytics on the back end, comes to the forefront of user experience. User-facing technology is beginning to anticipate our needs and adjust to them automatically. We begin to engage with technology in the same way we engage with humans – through speech and natural language. Rather than simplifying the user interface, 2018 seeks to remove it altogether.
Customers and users both benefit from this change, which results in greater customer satisfaction and user efficiency, translating directly to benefits for the business.
USER-FACING AI: EVOLUTION
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0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Mill
ions
Estimated number of users of digital assistants worldwide
– Statista, “Digital Assistants -Always at Your Service”
“Worldwide AI revenue will grow from $643.7 million in 2016 to $36.8 billion by 2025.”
— Tractica, “Artificial Intelligence Revenue to Reach $36.8 Billion Worldwide by 2025”
USER-FACING AI: GROWTH
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62
64
66
68
70
72
74
Reduced churn Reduced customercomplaints
Enhanced customersatisfaction
Perc
ent
Share of organizations implementing AI that observe more than 10 percentage point gain on the following
benefits
USER-FACING AI: IMPACT
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– Capgemini Digital Transformation Institute, “Turning AI into concrete value: the successful implementers’ toolkit”
What Is Driving This Trend?
Advances in natural language processing, machine learning, and increasing user adoption of technological communication channels set the stage for AI to take on user-facing roles effectively.
At the forefront of this trend are concepts such as augmented reality, the smart home or office and the concept of “zero-UI.” Zero-UI refers to a shift in thinking around human-technology interfaces. Computers will now adapt to human ways of communication through natural language processing, rather than relying on us to learn to engage with their interfaces. Even the least tech-savvy user is now able to command state-of-the-art technology.
The concept of human-in-the-loop – the idea that AI will augment human capabilities rather than replace them – is shaping the development of user-facing AI. AI roles are constrained to automating the simple and repetitive, enabling human agents to devote more attention to critical and complex tasks.
“43% of millennials and 28%
of business execs would
pay a premium for a hybrid
service run by AI that offers
direct access to humans,
versus a human-only
service.”
USER-FACING AI: SIGNALS & DRIVERS
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— PwC, “Bot.Me: A revolutionary partnership”
How does the trend score on the five key business outcomes?
USER-FACING AI: BUSINESS OUTCOMES SCORECARD
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Spot-on
High
Medium
Low
To what extent does the trend allow the business to free up human capital through automation? Does it integrate with stakeholders’ existing technology? Is the technology able to quickly increase capacity? Can it learn from its own outputs? Will it deliver a strong social impact on user and customer experience?
Automation: Spot-onEmploying AI in user-facing scenarios has great potential for
automating repetitive human resource intensive work, freeing
up human capital for the highest value tasks.
USER-FACING AI: BUSINESS OUTCOMES SCORECARD
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Integration: HighThe exponential adoption of user-facing AI results from its ability to
make use of customers' existing means of communication, like voice
chat and popular instant messenger platforms. Businesses can
leverage this to reach customers through familiar venues, removing
a barrier to engagement with the business. Integration is further
streamlined by AI's ability to interface with both complex APIs and
end-user tools, creating the potential for a seamless interface
between systems and users.
How does the trend score on the five key business outcomes?
USER-FACING AI: BUSINESS OUTCOMES SCORECARD
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Scale: HighPersonalization at scale – this is the promise of chatbots, virtual
assistants and related user-facing AI technology. It allows the
business to expand customer service without hiring more staff, and
therefore plays an important supporting role in maintaining customer
satisfaction as the business grows.
A word of caution: some customer support functions, especially if
they form the core services of a business, are typically too complex
to automate given the current state of AI. AI can't replace your entire
customer service team just yet.
Intelligence: MediumAutomating customer service tasks through AI allows for greater
capabilities to both collect and use large amounts of user data to
improve service delivery. Data quality is significantly impacted by
removing human error in data handling, forming a solid foundation
for analysis at scale through cognitive analytics.
Impact: Spot-onParadoxically, outsourcing tasks like call desk and appointment
scheduling to an AI can create a more human experience for the
end user. In many cases, these tasks have already been
outsourced to less flexible technology, like call queue software. By
bringing some of the human element back through human-like AI,
you get the next best thing to actually putting more humans on the
task, at a fraction of the cost. The result is greater user satisfaction,
both through better outcomes (shorter hold times) and a more
pleasant experience (more intuitive interface through voice, rather
than pressing keys).
How does the trend score on the five key business outcomes?
USER-FACING AI: RISK & UNCERTAINTY
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Risk Considerations
With AI’s ability to aggregate unprecedented amounts of user data, the need to protect data privacy grows ever greater. Risk further intensifies as communication shifts to commonly adopted platforms, such as instant message clients. Protections must be built in to ensure this new technology continues to comply with data privacy standards to maintain legal impunity and client trust.
In the case of interfacing with third-party platforms, it is critical to ensure the platform is capable of supporting the necessary levels of data protection for the type of data you are handling. This is especially true in fields such as healthcare, where communication over technological channels is often restricted to ensure confidentiality. As AI expands the range of platforms used for communication, platform creators and enterprise users alike will need to be judicious in selecting solutions capable of upholding appropriate data confidentiality standards.
Critical Uncertainties
The rapid development of AI and the speed of its adoption have created gaps in regulation surrounding data ownership. Although regulations are starting to emerge (e.g. GDPR), this space is still very much in flux, and legal provisions around data use will likely change over the next few years
Concerns of job loss have been somewhat mitigated by the concept of human-in-the-loop. This is the idea that AI will augment, rather than replace, human performance in most cases. However, some concerns remain that the rate of change could still outstrip the pace of job market recovery. A definitive conclusion will likely only emerge in practice.
Action• The client created a virtual reality game to ease children's stress
when going into medical procedures. The game combines emerging VR technology with a smart stress-reduction algorithm. The game’s AI automatically adjusts gameplay to the child's stress level, to ensure that at the end of play, stress levels are lower than at the start.
• The client engaged Info-Tech to develop a venture capital presentation for a go-to-market strategy, including selection of markets for initial entry.
Result• Over the course of the week-long engagement, the client gained
the ammunition necessary to put together a venture capital presentation for the healthcare market, as well as identify other markets for later expansion.
• The venture capital presentation was successful, securing an 8-figure amount and distribution partnerships.
• The project launch was a win, with adoption of the VR game complete or pending at over 20 hospitals.
Situation• Pre-procedure anxiety and stress are a major
concern in healthcare settings, particularly in the case of pediatric hospitals.
• Hospitals provide a variety of stress management services to patients, ranging from books and educational videos, to personalized sessions with counselors and social workers.
• The client was a company in the entertainment industry who wanted to improve children's hospital experiences using stress-reduction methods that would be easy to implement on a large scale.
Case StudyIndustry:
Healthcare
Desired business outcomes:
Social Impact, Scale
USER-FACING AI: CASE STUDY
24
Resources & Recommendations
Recommendations• Stay up to date regarding data privacy regulations in
your sector. In addition to maintaining compliance within your organization, watch for changes in vendors' service contracts regarding use and ownership of data.
• Consider the impact of automation on human performance and ensure any humans-in-the-loop maintain enough practice to keep their skills current.
USER-FACING AI: RESOURCES &
RECOMMENDATIONS
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For Premium Members• Learn why chatbots are a quick win in healthcare• Strike the right balance of personalization with customer-
facing AI• Put a number on the business value of customer-facing
applications• Keep user data safe
Upcoming Research • Implement AI Into Your Manufacturing Process
Although tremendously exciting, the adoption of emerging
technologies is also risky and uncertain. Info-Tech provides research
and recommendations across industries to support a business-
outcome-driven approach that ensures you get the value from your
technology investments.
Bibliography
USER-FACING AI: BIBLIOGRAPHY
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Biewald, Lukas. “Why human-in-the-loop computing is the future of machine learning.” Computerworld. 13 Nov. 2015. Web.
Borowski, Craig. “The Impact of Demographics on Live Chat Customer Service.” Software Advice, 6 Jan. 2015. Web.
Brooke, Sophia. “How Chatbots Will Shape the Future of Healthcare.” Chatbots Magazine, 23 Oct. 2017. Web.
Brownlee, John, et al. “What Is Zero UI? (And Why Is It Crucial To The Future Of Design?).” Co. Design, 2 July 2015. Web.
Capgemini Digital Transformation Institute. “Turning AI into concrete value: the successful implementers’ toolkit.” Capgemini. 2017. Web.
Credence Research. “Chatbots Market By Type (Stand-alone, Web-based), End User (Large, Small and Medium-sized Enterprises) - Growth, Share, Opportunities & Competitive Analysis, 2015 - 2022.” Credence Research, June 2016. Web.
Deloitte UK. “Adopting the power of conversational UX.” Deloitte, 2017. Web.
Devaney, Erik. “Infographic: Rise of the Chatbots.” Chatbots Magazine, 8 Sept. 2016. Web.
Engelbert, Cathy, and John Hagel III. “Fulfilling the Promise of AI Requires Rethinking the Nature of Work Itself.” Harvard Business Review, 18 Dec. 2017. Web.
Forani, Jonathan. “Toronto hospitals embrace virtual reality.” The Toronto Star, 20 Mar. 2017. Web.
Foye, Lauren. “Chatbot Conversations to deliver $8 billion in Cost savings by 2022.” Juniper Research Analyst Press. Web. Accessed 9 Jan. 2018.
Furness, Dyllan. “The chatbot will see you now: AI may play doctor in the future of healthcare.” Digital Trends, 7 Oct. 2016. Web.
George, Sharon. “How to Tell When Vendors Are Hyping AI Capabilities.” Smarter With Gartner, 13 Nov. 2017. Web.
Grenacher, Manuel. “Artificial Intelligence In Customer Service.” Flarrio, Web. Accessed 13 Dec. 2017.
Griffin, Anne. “Improving the Patient Waiting Room Experience: ChatbotsCould Be the Prescription We Need.” Medium, 18 May 2017. Web.
“Growth of Chatbots in Health Care Industry | Health Care Chatbots.” Dr. Hempel Digital Health Network, 24 June 2017. Web.
“Harnessing Your Data with ‘Human in the Loop.’” AI Business, 29 Aug. 2017. Web.
Husek, Stepan. “Chatbots: Let artificial intelligence speak for your business.” Deloitte Czech Republic. Web. Accessed 11 Dec. 2017.
Juniper Research. “AI-Powered Chatbots to Drive Dramatic Cost Savings in Healthcare, Saving $3.6 Billion by 2022.” Juniper Research Press Release. Web. Accessed 9 Jan. 2018.
Kerravala, Zeus. “5 use cases for AI in the workplace.” The Digital CIO, 16 Nov. 2017, Web.
Bibliography
USER-FACING AI: BIBLIOGRAPHY
TREND REPORT 2018 / Info-Tech Research Group 27
Kessler, Sarah. “Automation can replace at least some work in almost all job sectors.” The Atlas, 8 Mar. 2017. Web.
Lardinois, Frederic. “Twilio study: most consumers now want to use messaging to interact with businesses.” TechCrunch, 12 Sept. 2016. Web. Accessed 5 Jan. 2018.
McKinsey & Company. “Artificial intelligence in health insurance.” McKinsey & Company, Sept. 2017. Web.
Olivi, Giangiacomo and Gareth Stokes of DLA Piper. “Data protection: patient confidentiality in the age of AI.” Lexology, 6 Oct. 2017. Web. Accessed 10 Jan. 2018.
Oracle. “Can Virtual Experiences Replace Reality?” Oracle, 2016. Web.
PwC. “Bot.Me: A revolutionary partnership.” PwC, 2017. Accessed 25 Jan. 2018.
Reddy, Trips. “The code of ethics for AI and chatbots that every brand should follow.” IBM blogs, Watson. 15 Oct. 2017. Web. Accessed 21 Nov. 2017.
Richter, Felix. “Digital Assistants - Always at Your Service.” Statista Infographics, Web. 26 Aug. 2016. Web. Accessed 11 Feb. 2018.
Rosenthal, Vivian. “Here’s Why Chat Bots Are So Important To Your Business.” Forbes, 2 Aug. 2016. Web. Accessed 9 Jan. 2018.
“Saint Elizabeth Health Care tests AI chatbot that supports caregivers.” Canadian Healthcare Technology, 30 Oct. 2017. Web. Accessed 5 Jan. 2018.
Siwicki, Bill. “AI chatbots might be the money-savers hospitals are looking for.” Healthcare IT News, 18 Sept. 2017. Web.
Solar, Rod. “Healthcare Chatbots Using Artificial Intelligence Likely to Replace Your Telephone Receptionist or Medical Secretary.” LiveseySolar, 16 May 2017. Web.
The Tincture Collective. “A Reality Check on Mobile Mental Health Apps with Dr. John Torous—The 5Q.” Tincture, 20 June 2016. Web.
Tractica. “Artificial Intelligence Revenue to Reach $36.8 Billion Worldwide by 2025.” Tractica. 25 Aug. 2016. Web. Accessed 8 Jan. 2018.
van Loon, Ronald. “Enterprise AI needs high data quality to succeed.” ReadWrite, 9 Oct. 2017. Web.
Wallace, Nick. “EU’s Right to Explanation: A Harmful Restriction on Artificial Intelligence.” TechZone360, 25 Jan. 2017. Web. Accessed 10 Jan. 2018.
Robotics Factory floor to the living room
What is robotics?The goal of robotics is to create process-focused intelligent automation, incorporating artificial intelligence and machine learning algorithms. Robotics encompasses both robotic process automation (RPA), i.e. the automation of virtual or clerical processes using software “taskbots,” and robotic automation of physical tasks.
The aim is to replace humans in a variety of repetitive, rule-based, or dangerous tasks. These tasks can refer to business processes like employee onboarding or processing accounts payable, or physical tasks like lifting heavy loads, inventory management, or entering dangerous environments. Although the aim is to substitute human effort on a task level, at the job level the goal is more to augment human performance, a concept known as “human-in-the-loop.”
The intent is to make human workers more efficient, safer, and more engaged by automating part of the work. An example of this would be employing a machine-learning system, like Watson, to read radiological images and make recommendations to a human radiologist, who manually reviews complex cases and signs off on the final determination.
— McKinsey & Company, “Where machines could replace humans—and where they can’t (yet)”
“We showed that currently
demonstrated technologies
could automate 45 percent
of the activities people are
paid to perform and that
about 60 percent of all
occupations could see 30
percent or more of their
activities automated. “
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ROBOTICS: EVOLUTION
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— Cynthia Breazeal, NOVA ScienceNOWdocumentary series on PBS
“If you look at the field of
robotics today, you can say that
robots have been in the
deepest oceans, they’ve been to
Mars, you know? They’ve been
all these places, but now they’re
just starting to come into your
living. Your living room is the
final frontier for robots.”
What’s new in 2018?Robotics is the convergence and evolution of two trends previously covered by Info-Tech: autonomous machines and automated cognition. Autonomous machines represents another industrial revolution, where humans can stop performing undesirable activities. Monotonous activities that require repetitive and extreme physical exertion can be done by robots. Automated cognition and RPA speak to an extension of the human mind. Ever increasing data sets require the outsourcing of certain computational processes to machines that can better respond to them.
Robots in 2018 are no longer machines that perform rote structured tasks or calculations – they are evolving to perform in dynamic environments. Robots are moving from working in isolation to working with humans. Robots are shifting from programmed to learned behavior through artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML).
In short, robots have crossed into the final frontier – our living rooms and our workplaces. Working, interacting, and living with robots has become all but an inevitability.
“The global market for RPA Software and Services is expected to grow to $1.2 billion by 2021 at a compound annual growth rate of 36%. The direct services market includes implementation and consulting services focused on building RPA capabilities within an organization.”
— Phil Fersht, “Enterprise Automation and AI will reach $10 billion in 2018 to engineer the OneOffice”
ROBOTICS: GROWTH
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“RPA is a promising new development in business automation that offers a potential ROI of 30–200 percent—in the first year.”
— McKinsey & Company, ”The next acronym you need to know about: RPA (robotic process automation)”
ROBOTICS: IMPACT
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What Is Driving This Trend?
Advances in artificial intelligence, machine learning,
internet of things, sensors, and natural language
processing are bringing robots into everyday life.
Evolution in these different domains of technology has
allowed robotics to become dynamic, human-facing,
and economical.
Compounding these technological advances are the
economic benefits that RPA can bring to organizations.
Employees are faced with an abundance of data and
increased complexity. Cost reduction, error avoidance,
quality of work improvements, and time returned to
employees are some of the most commonly cited
reasons organizations are pursuing investments in
RPA. — CiGen RPA, “Security Risks in Robotic Process Automation (RPA): How You Can Prevent Them”
“3Gem Research ran a survey on 250 heads of department in the US and the UK, in various sectors such as business services, finance, banking and manufacturing. According to the respondents, ‘productivity and 24/7 availability ranked 1st and 2nd highest in terms of the benefits (62% and 61% respectively), followed by 58.4% of respondents agreeing ‘the end of repetitive work’ as a top benefit.’”
ROBOTICS: SIGNALS & DRIVERS
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How does the trend score on the five key business outcomes?
ROBOTICS: BUSINESS OUTCOMES SCORECARD
34TREND REPORT 2018 / Info-Tech Research Group
To what extent does the trend allow the business to free up human capital through automation? Does it integrate with stakeholders’ existing technology? Is the technology able to quickly increase capacity? Can it learn from its own outputs? Will it deliver a strong social impact on user and customer experience?
Spot-on
High
Medium
Low
ROBOTICS: BUSINESS OUTCOMES SCORECARD
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Automation: HighThey key benefit of robotics is its ability to automate mundane tasks
and move humans toward tasks that produce higher value. When line
of business managers were asked to name the biggest benefits of
robotics, 24/7 availability and increased productivity topped the list.
Despite a high level of automation, the technology will not be ready to
automate dynamic roles in the near future (CiGen RPA).
How does the trend score on the five key business outcomes?
Integration: MediumRobots are becoming more dynamic than ever before. Yet the ability
for robots to interact with the machines of suppliers and consumers
is still far away. There are issues with standardization because all
systems involved in the process must be compatible. It goes beyond
basic connectivity between systems, such as software, and it will
take time for players along an industry vertical to align.
ROBOTICS: BUSINESS OUTCOMES SCORECARD
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Intelligence: HighThe technological advances that have brought robots into our
everyday lives are a result of increasing robot intelligence. Machine
learning and artificial intelligence are becoming more advanced each
year, allowing an increased percentage of robots in the workforce to
learn and improve from experience. This experience will likely still be
confined to simple tasks in the near future.
Impact: Spot-onThere are great social implications for RPA. On one hand, the robots
promise to liberate individuals from mundane tasks, so that they can
focus on high-value, mentally stimulating activities. Robots can also
cause great pain. In the near future, many human workers may be
completely replaced by robots. It is predicted by 2025 that there will be
5.25 robots per 1,000 human workers. This will contribute to 3.4 million
lost jobs (McRae).
How does the trend score on the five key business outcomes?
Scale: MediumWe will see the mass proliferation of robots in every facet of life within
the next 3 years. Cobots, robots that collaborate with humans to
complete tasks, now sell for an average of $30,000. By 2020, that price
will be $15,000, less than the price of most cars. The issue will not be
supply, but rather demand, in that robots may not provide the exact fit
organizations or customers are looking for (PwC, “Five ways robots are
going mainstream”).
ROBOTICS: RISK & UNCERTAINTY
TREND REPORT 2018 / Info-Tech Research Group 37
Risk Considerations
Robots cannot easily adapt to small changes in a certain process. A change in a drop-down menu or the way data is entered can cause significant data corruption. At this point, the ability of a robot to recognize these small changes and make corresponding adjustments pales in comparison to that of a human. Changes to upstream and downstream steps in a process can easily disrupt a robot and result in heavy spending. For example, new regulations requiring minor changes to an application form could necessitate reconfiguration for all robots involved.
The scripts that program robots to perform a specific action should be treated like software code. Scripts should be designed using industry-standard methodologies that focus on reuse and abstractions. They should also be versioned and properly logged so that quality assurance processes can be executed against them. This will help organizations avoid the nightmare that may ensue if scripts are not designed for reuse and robots must be removed from business processes each time a small change is made to a process.
Critical Uncertainties
RPA implementation is nine times more expensive than the robots themselves. Uncertainties around enterprise architecture constraints and IT security concerns can easily drive costs up. We also don’t know how the current workforce will respond to an RPA implementation. If change management is conducted poorly, employees may get the sense that they are being replaced by robots (Deckard).
Action
• Infosys BPM was hired to assess opportunities for automation to improve the delivery of service for the HR function. Infosys studied each process and analyzed the steps in detail to determine the suitability of RPA. It categorized the level of RPA suitability into five groups: Very High, High, Medium, Low, and Nil.
• Suitability for RPA was determined by looking at processes by their volume, their average handling time, and risk of error. Infosys automated several processes identified during the analysis.
• An example of an automated process was the generation of offer letters for new employees. The process was a series of steps that had to be adhered to perfectly to ensure both accuracy and compliance to regulations. The process required 15 minutes per new employee because of the manual steps involved. The entire process was automated and processing time was reduced by 90% without compromising adherence to procedure and regulations.
Result
• When all the processes that were suitable for RPA were enhanced with automation, the HR function achieved significant monetary and time savings. There was a 70% reduction in manual effort, 55% average improvement in processing time, and $680,000 in net savings.
Situation
• Infosys BPM worked with a multinational corporation (MNC) to implement robotic process automation (RPA) in its human resources function.
• The HR function at the MNC handled a variety of responsibilities. Some of these included talent acquisition, talent administration, talent development, employee lifecycle management, employee experience, compensation, and benefits support.
• The client grew rapidly in recent years, and the HR function found it difficult to process an increasing volume of transactions. Processing these transactions demanded both speed to meet recipient demands and high attention to detail.
Case StudyIndustry:
Professional Services
Desired business outcomes:
Automation
ROBOTICS: CASE STUDY
Source: Infosys BPM Case Studies38
Resources & Recommendations
Recommendations• Change management must focus on the how RPA
can enhance the work experience of current employees.
• Manage scripts for robots like software code. Use industry-standard methodologies that focus on reuse and abstractions.
• Map out processes that involve RPA and robots so that when changes are made to downstream or upstream steps, implications can be easily determined.
ROBOTICS: RESOURCES &
RECOMMENDATIONS
TREND REPORT 2018 / Info-Tech Research Group 39
For Premium Members• Know why it is time for insurance to learn through direct
adoption of autonomous machines• Enable your manufacturing crystal ball to predict and
prevent downtime in manufacturing robots• Prepare your organization for the automation that is
coming• Learn about the benefits that chatbots can bring to banking
Upcoming Research • Implement AI Into Your Manufacturing Process
Although tremendously exciting, the adoption of emerging
technologies is also risky and uncertain. Info-Tech provides research
and recommendations across industries to support a business-
outcome-driven approach that ensures you get the value from your
technology investments.
Bibliography
ROBOTICS: BIBLIOGRAPHY
TREND REPORT 2018 / Info-Tech Research Group 40
Breazeal, Cynthia. NOVA ScienceNOW Documentary Series Transcript. November 21, 2006. PBS. Web. Accessed 22 Feb. 2018.
Chui, Michael, James Manyika, and Mehdi Miremadi. “Where machines could replace humans—-and where they can’t (yet).” McKinsey & Company. July 2016. Web. Accessed 22 Feb. 2018.
CiGen RPA. “Security Risks in Robotic Process Automation (RPA): How You Can Prevent Them.” Medium, 22 Nov. 2017. Web.
DeBrusk, Chris. “Five Robotic Process Automation Risks to Avoid.” MIT Sloan Management Review, 24 Oct. 2017. Web. Accessed 6 Feb. 2018.
Deckard, Mina. “RPA Implementation Anxieties? You’re Not Alone.” UiPath. 28 Sept. 2017. Web. Accessed 6 Feb. 2018.
Fersht, Phil. “Enterprise Automation and AI will reach $10 billion in 2018 to engineer the OneOffice.” Horses for Sources, 4 Nov. 2017. Web.
Infosys BPM. “Robotic Process Automation (RPA) simplifies HR processes for a global MNC.” Robotics Process Automation Case Studies. Infosys. Web. Accessed 6 Feb. 2018.
Kalakota, Ravi. “Robotic Process Automation and Analytics.” DZone.com, 26 Mar. 2016. Web. Accessed 6 Feb. 2018.
Knoll, Christian et al. “Robotic Process Automation – Robots conquer business processes in back offices.” Capgemini. 2016. Web. Accessed 6 Feb. 2018.
Lhuer, Xavier. “The next acronym you need to know about: RPA (robotic process automation).” McKinsey & Company. Dec. 2016. Web. Accessed 6 Feb. 2018.
McRae, Mike. “Unsettling New Statistics Reveal Just How Quickly Robots Can Replace Human Workers.” ScienceAlert, 31 Mar. 2017. Web. Accessed 6 Feb. 2018.
Morphy, Erika. “Will the Real Robotic Process Automation Please Stand Up?” CMSWire.com, 7 Dec. 2017. Web. Accessed 6 Feb. 2018.
Overby, Stephanie. “How robotic process automation threatens workers today.” CIO, 5 Jan. 2016. Web.
PwC. “Five ways robots are going mainstream.” Next In Tech, 22 Apr. 2017. Web.
Digital TwinA living model
What is a digital twin?When an expensive component of a critical mechanical system fails, operations can be seriously impacted. Work stops, a replacement must be ordered, and a technician scheduled. If only you could know two weeks in advance when this critical part would fail. What if the part itself could tell you?
Digital twin refers to the creation of digital models of real-life objects using data from sensors on the objects themselves. More than a simulation, a digital twin is a living model. It allows the user to inspect an object or physical system remotely, or interact with it in a sandbox environment.
The digital twin comes as a natural extension of the Industry 4.0 movement, at the convergence of increased IoT adoption, better and cheaper sensors, and exponential growth in computing power. These advances have allowed simulations and physics models to move from the design phase to monitoring, and even to predictive analytics.
The digital twin removes reliance on physical proximity and introduces the possibility of predictive analytics through simulation. The applications span multiple industries, from optimizing transportation routes, to monitoring performance in manufacturing, to a surgeon digitally exploring a copy of a patient's heart anatomy to prepare for the surgery.
— Colin J. Parris, VP of GE Software Research, GE Global Research
“A digital twin is a living
model that drives a
business outcome, and this
model gets real-time
operational and
environmental data and
constantly updates itself.”
TREND REPORT 2018 / Info-Tech Research Group 42
What’s new in 2018?The digital twin is a technology that has been slowly coming into influence in the world of IoT and the digitized factory. The idea is not new – at its most basic, a computer-aided design image used to produce a physical object can be called a digital twin. The idea driving a revolution, however, is the reversal of this data flow, from physical object back into the model, allowing the object to be monitored and interacted with in a sandbox environment.
At the cutting edge of digital twin is the move from monitoring to prediction and optimization. Growing computing power is allowing for sophisticated analytics and simulations to be performed, allowing businesses to predict failure events and schedule maintenance. These data persist beyond the lifetime of the physical object – to inform the design of the next generation.
A fleet of digital twins, operating in concert, allows for the benefits to extend to the system level. Businesses can not only predict and mitigate failure at the part level, but also optimize physical asset use and allocation so that the efficiency of the system as a whole is increased. System-level optimization will produce the biggest impact of this trend in the near future.
DIGITAL TWIN: EVOLUTION
TREND REPORT 2018 / Info-Tech Research Group 43
— Dimitri Volkmann
"It becomes a learning system.
The more you relate past and
present data and the more you
analyze it, the more knowledge
you have, and you can redeploy
that.
Even when you decommission
a valuable asset, you have all
the data and intelligence of its
whole lifetime, which you can
use to find patterns for the next
generation you're designing.“
“By 2020, 30% of G2000 companies will be using data from digital twins of IoT connected products and assets to improve product innovation success rates and organizational productivity, achieving gains of up to 25%.”
— Turner and MacGillivray, "IDC FutureScape: Worldwide IoT 2018 Predictions"
DIGITAL TWIN: GROWTH
TREND REPORT 2018 / Info-Tech Research Group 44
“Optimizing operations using a digital twin can increase the efficiency of a power plant by 1.5%. This, in turn, can lead to significant reductions in carbon dioxide emissions.”
— Aucotec, “How Digital Twinning Makes Plants More Productive and Efficient”
DIGITAL TWIN: IMPACT
TREND REPORT 2018 / Info-Tech Research Group 45
What Is Driving This Trend?
Digital twin is a consequence of exponential digitization in the Industry 4.0 movement. The proliferation of inexpensive sensors has enabled the capture of enormous amounts of data. Increasing computing power and growing adoption of cloud-based infrastructure has enabled us to work with these data sets effectively.
The economic power of digital twin is in its scale. Applying the optimization learned from one object to the entire fleet allows efficiency gains and cost savings to scale, resulting in large gains on the bottom line.
Increasing globalization of processes, from manufacturing to medicine, has created a need for decentralization and cloud-based accessibility. Digital twin fills this need by removing the reliance on physical proximity to the original physical object, enabling many functions to be performed remotely. A wealth of data combined with a sophisticated physics model of an object allows us to interact with the digital twin remotely, and ask questions with the same freedom we would if we had the object in hand.
— Aucotec, “3 Industries Being Transformed by Digital Twins”
“Last year, GE Renewable
Energy signed a 5-year
contract with two aging
wind farms in Japan with
the goal of boosting annual
energy production by 2%
and 5%. Even at 2%, the
technology is expected to
increase revenue by up to
$650,000 over the life of the
project.”
DIGITAL TWIN: SIGNALS & DRIVERS
TREND REPORT 2018 / Info-Tech Research Group 46
How does the trend score on the five key business outcomes?
DIGITA TWIN: BUSINESS OUTCOMES SCORECARD
47TREND REPORT 2018 / Info-Tech Research Group
To what extent does the trend allow the business to free up human capital through automation? Does it integrate with stakeholders’ existing technology? Is the technology able to quickly increase capacity? Can it learn from its own outputs? Will it deliver a strong social impact on user and customer experience?
Spot-on
High
Medium
Low
DIGITAL TWIN: BUSINESS OUTCOMES SCORECARD
TREND REPORT 2018 / Info-Tech Research Group 48
Integration: Spot-onThe prevalence of multiple proprietary standards creates issues in the
sharing and therefore interpretation of data. The digital twin has the
potential to solve this by bringing data to a digital space in a workable
format, and where access can be controlled through APIs. This
impacts both analytical capabilities and the potential to integrate and
share data across systems. Should a business export its data, the
digital twin makes this a more valuable endeavor.
How does the trend score on the five key business outcomes?
Automation: LowDigital twin can be used for automation, but in many cases, it
should not be. Although it is possible to automate control of a
physical part through its digital twin, currently this option demands
tight control, certification, and risk assessments. In many cases,
other technologies are able to perform automation better, at least
at the current state of technological development.
DIGITAL TWIN: BUSINESS OUTCOMES SCORECARD
TREND REPORT 2018 / Info-Tech Research Group 49
Scale: HighThe maximum potential of the digital twin is realized at scale.
Lessons learned from one implementation can be applied to all
objects of that type. When you move from optimizing individual
components to optimizing systems, profit and savings become
exponential, feeding into business growth. Decentralization, enabled
by remote access to a digital twin, removes location-related
constraints around staffing and access, facilitating business
processes, and when interacting with a digital twin can replace a
destructive interaction with its physical counterpart, resources are
saved as well.
How does the trend score on the five key business outcomes?
Intelligence: Spot-onA digital twin captures the data produced in the course of regular
operation with the goal of optimizing at the part and system levels. In
a manufacturing context, this can be used to optimize the process
itself. Currently, this is not automatic – a skilled person is still
required to make the determination – but the versatility of a digital
representation of an object and the ability to run simulations without
altering the functionality of the real system make this person's job
much easier.
Impact: MediumDigital twinning can render certain low-skill jobs redundant, and this
effect on human capital must be considered in implementing the
technology. However, the positive impact of improved operations on
customers, e.g. increased efficiency in power generation, cannot be
ignored.
DIGITAL TWIN: RISK & UNCERTAINTY
TREND REPORT 2018 / Info-Tech Research Group 50
Risk Considerations
Increasing integration of data carries many benefits but also renders the system more vulnerable to attack. This is a risk worth taking, in light of the benefits, but measures must be taken to mitigate the risks. Potential risks to be on guard against are:
• Data theft – digital twin data falling into the wrong hands.
• Identity management – pairing a physical object with another object's digital twin, accidentally or maliciously.
• Data spoofing – malicious attack that creates false data.
The good news is that development of security protections has accompanied digital twin development. The digital ghost is a monitoring system with the sole purpose of detecting irregularities within a digital twin's data, indicative of tampering. The digital twin's sophistications come into play, as detection is done both on the basis of typical values and by calculating whether the observed values are possible given the physics of the system.
Critical Uncertainties
The amount of data captured by a digital twin creates tremendous value, but for whom? There are many stakeholders, from the original manufacturer of the part, to its current owners/operator, to the company contracted to service it. All these entities play some part in generating the data, and the coming years will see disputes over how data should be divided along this value chain.
Action• GE provides remote maintenance and diagnostic services for
airlines through digital twin technology.
• By incorporating the wealth of data generated by each engine into its digital twin, it is possible to track real-time wear patterns, predict when failure will occur, and re-route the engine to a less taxing flight schedule to extend its service life before the maintenance window.
• GE builds a fleet of digital twins to correspond to the physical fleet of engines. This enables the use of predictive analytics and simulations on a system level to determine optimal flight distribution. The result is maximized efficiency not just for a given engine, but for the entire fleet.
Result• Using a digital twin to detect anomalous functioning predicts
potential failure 15-30 days in advance.
• Predictive analytics used to estimate the lifespan of parts saves $44 million in maintenance costs.
• $10 million in savings results from optimizing engine flight routes with respect to maintenance schedules and service locations.
Situation• Jet engines experience differential wear
depending on factors such as weather, flight duration, locale, and even pilot flight style.
• Maintenance is costly, but so is unexpected failure and downtime. Optimization of engine use and service-window timing is essential to maximize ROI.
• Airlines are looking for a data-driven approach to optimize operations.
Case StudyIndustry:
Aviation
Desired business outcomes:
Intelligence, Scale
DIGITAL TWIN: CASE STUDY
Source: GE Predix Technology Brief51
Resources & Recommendations
Recommendations• Even if you don’t know what you will do with the data,
start capturing it from day one. • Be aware that other stakeholders will be doing the
same. Be on the lookout for data ownership and API clauses in contracts, and get ready to negotiate shared ownership and monetization.
DIGITAL TWIN: RESOURCES &
RECOMMENDATIONS
TREND REPORT 2018 / Info-Tech Research Group 52
For Premium Members• Develop a culture of innovation in your organization• Build a case for radical disruption in manufacturing• Identify IoT quick wins to build a solid foundation for digital
twinning• Learn how IoT is laying the foundation of smart cities• Use IoT to make chemicals manufacturing smarter
Although tremendously exciting, the adoption of emerging
technologies is also risky and uncertain. Info-Tech provides research
and recommendations across industries to support a business-
outcome-driven approach that ensures you get the value from your
technology investments.
Bibliography
DIGITAL TWIN: BIBLIOGRAPHY
TREND REPORT 2018 / Info-Tech Research Group 53
Aucotec. “3 Industries Being Transformed by Digital Twins.” Aucotec Blog, 28 Aug. 2017. Web.
Aucotec. “How Digital Twinning Makes Plants More Productive and Efficient.” Aucotec Blog, 19 July 2017. Web.
Biba, Erin. “The jet engines with ‘digital twins.’” BBC Autos, 14 Feb. 2017. Web.
Bouchard, Jerome. “Digital Twins: Identical, But Different.” Oliver Wyman, Sept. 2016. Web.
Briodagh, Ken. “IoT Time Podcast S.3 Ep. 3 GE Digital Twin.” IoT Evolution World. 17 Jan. 2018. Web. Accessed 29 Jan. 2018.
Buntz, Brian. “GE Exec on Predix Platform, Digital Twins and Diversity.” IoT Institute, 30 Jan. 2018. Web..
“Digital twins - rise of the digital twin in Industrial IoT and Industry 4.0.” i-SCOOP. Web. Accessed 22 Nov. 2017.
Dignan, Larry. “GE aims to replicate Digital Twin success with security-focused Digital Ghost.” ZDNet, 24 Mar. 2017. Web. Accessed 29 Jan. 2018.
GE. “Digital Twins: The Bridge Between Industrial Assets and the Digital World.” GE Digital Blog, 30 June 2017. Web.
GE. “Digital Twin At Work: The Technology That’s Changing Industry.” GE Digital Blog, 16 Dec. 2016. Web.
GE. “Digital Twin.” Predix Technology Brief, vol. 1, Feb. 2017. Predix. Web.
GE. “GE Digital Twin: Analytic Engine for the Digital Power Plant.” GE Power Digital Solutions, 2016. Web.
Geissbauer, Reinhard, et al. “Digital Factories 2020: Shaping the future of manufacturing.” PwC, Apr. 2017. Web.
Grieves, Michael and John Vickers. “Digital Twin: Mitigating Unpredictable, Undesirable Emergent Behavior in Complex Systems.” Transdisciplinary Perspectives on Complex Systems, Springer, 2017, pp. 85–113.
Grieves, Michael and John Vickers. “Digital Twin: Mitigating Unpredictable, Undesirable Emergent Behavior in Complex Systems (Excerpt).” Web. Accessed 18 Jan. 2018.
Gutierrez, Carlo and Alex Khizhniak. “Digital Twins for Aerospace: Better Fleet Reliability and Performance.” Altoros, 3 Aug. 2017. Web.
Hamilton, Dean. “Seeing double: why IoT digital twins will change the face of manufacturing.” Network World, 25 Aug. 2017. Web.
Honrubia, Mario. “Industrial IoT is booming thanks to a drop in Sensor Prices.” Ennomotive, 17 Aug. 2017. Web.
Kimpel, Nathan. “Digital twin technology is shaping the future of connectivity.” Certification Magazine, 9 Jan. 2018. Web.
Maravich, John Nash. “Digital Twins or Digital Doppelgangers?” ndustrial.io Blog, 8 Aug. 2017. Web.
Bibliography
DIGITAL TWIN: BIBLIOGRAPHY
TREND REPORT 2018 / Info-Tech Research Group 54
Miller, Ron. “Cheaper Sensors Will Fuel The Age Of Smart Everything.” TechCrunch, 10 Mar. 2015. Web. Accessed 29 Jan. 2018.
Parris, Colin. “How A 10-Minute Conversation With A Machine Saved $12 Million.” GE Reports, 17 Jan. 2017. Web.
Pettey, Christy. “Prepare for the Impact of Digital Twins.” Smarter With Gartner, 18 Sept. 2017. Web.
Rao, Anand. “Digital twins beyond the industrials.” PwC Next In Tech, 13 Feb. 2017. Web.
Shetty. “How to Use Digital Twins in Your IoT Strategy.” Smarter With Gartner, 8 June 2017. Web.
Stackpole, Beth. “Digital Twin Spawns Automation Efficiencies.” Automation World, 6 June 2017. Web. Accessed 8 Feb. 2018.
Stöcker, Carsten. “Implementing First Industry 4.0 Use Cases with DAG Tangle—Machine Tagging for Digital Twins.” Medium, 24 June 2017. Web.
Tam, Miguel. “The Democratization of the Digital Twin.” Propel, 23 Aug. 2017. Web.
Turner, Vernon, Carrie MacGillivray and Patrick Gorman. “Connecting the IoT: The Road to Success.” IDC Infographic. Web. Accessed 25 Jan. 2018.
Turner, Vernon and Carrie MacGillivray. “IDC FutureScape: Worldwide IoT 2018 Predictions.” IDC. 2017. Web.
Volkmann, Dimitri. “The Rise of Digital Twins.” LinkedIn, 7 Nov. 2016. Web. Accessed 20 Jan. 2018.
Wired Brand Lab. “Digital Twin: Bridging the physical-digital divide.” IBM Internet of Things Blog, 1 Nov. 2017. Web.
Blockchain 2.0The technology beyond the cryptocurrency hype
What is blockchain 2.0?Blockchain is a distributed computing principle that removes reliance on
a single master copy of a digital record by keeping a "distributed ledger" –
multiple duplications of a record, all stored on different devices.
This is a fundamental departure from traditional approaches that rely on
keeping a single central master record and protecting it using restricted
user permissions. It goes beyond cryptocurrency. The technology
underlying it – blockchain – is what is truly valuable. Blockchain's value
is in its universality. It can be applied to almost any situation that calls for
keeping a secure record. Examples include shipment tracking, recording
asset ownership, and legal contracts.
Other capabilities beyond the distributed ledger are being explored and
added to the blockchain universe. Smart contracts and proof of stake are
the new frontier for blockchain. These innovations add new capabilities to
blockchain technology and enhance the applicability of the distributed
ledger.
— Larry Summers, US Former Treasury Secretary (quoted in Guarda)
“I’m reasonably confident…
that the blockchain will
change a great deal of
financial practice and
exchange 40 years from
now. Blockchain and all
that followed from it will
figure more prominently in
that story than will bitcoin.”
TREND REPORT 2018 / Info-Tech Research Group 56
What’s new in 2018?Previously, the focus of blockchain was its ability to provide distributed validation. The blockchain refers to a distributed ledger that augments dispersed consensus building. Consensus is built by sharing a transaction with a distributed network of computers that run algorithms independently to verify that the transaction has occurred. Once a transaction has been confirmed by the network, a “block” of data is added to the chain. After additional blocks are added, it becomes nearly impossible to change or remove.
Blockchain technology has evolved and experts are experimenting with additional applications to enhance its capabilities. Smart contracts and proof of stake, a new method to validate transactions on the blockchain, are two particularly exciting enhancements.
Experts are working to overcome challenges with scalability on blockchain network transactions. Smart contracts are contracts written in computer code that enable automatic execution of the contract once a set of conditions is met. Wide-scale implementation of smart contracts will allow for increased decentralization, lessen contract disputes, and enhance privacy (Gupta).
BLOCKCHAIN 2.0: EVOLUTION
TREND REPORT 2018 / Info-Tech Research Group 57
— Deloitte US, “Blockchain survey 2017”
“42% of executives believe
blockchain will disrupt their
industry. 55% of executives say
they will lose competitiveness if
they do not adopt.”
“The global blockchain market size is expected to grow to USD 7,683.7 million by 2022, at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 79.6%.”— Business Wire, "Global Blockchain Market 2017-2022“
*These numbers represent the underlying technology that supports cryptocurrencies, blockchain. This does not include the value of cryptocurrencies.
BLOCKCHAIN 2.0: GROWTH
TREND REPORT 2018 / Info-Tech Research Group 58
“20 percent of central banks will be using Blockchain technology by 2019, and 40 percent will have active Blockchain applications within a decade.”
— Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance, referenced in Buck
BLOCKCHAIN 2.0: IMPACT
TREND REPORT 2018 / Info-Tech Research Group 59
What Is Driving This Trend?
Proof of Stake
Proof of work (PoW) is the current method by which most public blockchains reward
individuals for validating transactions and adding "blocks" to the blockchain. PoW
involves solving a computational puzzle; the group (miner) that solves the puzzle first will
receive the rewards. Mining requires a great deal of computing power, and as more
miners try to solve the puzzle, electricity consumption increases.
Given that profitability is a function of the electricity cost, mining has ignited a race to
secure the cheapest power possible. Some miners are cutting corners, resorting to low-
cost coal or hydroelectric generators, and siphoning from power plants. A bitcoin mine
has been reported to emit the same amount of carbon dioxide as a Boeing 747. Mining is
becoming environmentally hazardous, and the rate of power consumption is growing
unsustainable. As of December 2017, Bitcoin mining power consumption was equivalent
to the power consumption of the country of Serbia (Irfan).
Proof of stake (PoS) is a new way to validate transactions on a public blockchain that will
mitigate the adverse impacts of PoW. Miners will still exist, but will be limited to mining
their "stake" in any transaction. For example, a miner owning 3% of bitcoins will only be
able to receive 3% of the validation reward. This lessens competition for increasing
computational power in the race to obtain a validation reward. Validation rewards will be
spread across the different miners based on their "stake“ (Momoh).
— Malmo, “One Bitcoin Transaction Now Uses as Much Energy as Your House in a Week”
“As of November 2017, Bitcoin
miners used 215 kilowatt
hours to validate one
transaction. The average
American household
consumes 901 kilowatt hours
per month.”
BLOCKCHAIN 2.0: SIGNALS & DRIVERS
TREND REPORT 2018 / Info-Tech Research Group 60
Smart Contracts
Smart contracts are contracts that can be executed automatically once certain
conditions have been met, and they have the potential to deliver several key benefits.
Smart contracts facilitate the exchange of assets, including money, property, and shares,
without the use of costly intermediaries. Each year, $150 billion US worth of crude oil
transactions are disputed. Information is easily lost through processes that involve
multiple parties, across great geographic distances, requiring the tracking of thousands
of distinct assets (e.g. barrels of oil). Compare this to a smart contract that can be set up
to transfer funds automatically upon receipt of the barrels of oil. The transaction can
include tokens representing the underlying asset (e.g. a barrel of oil), issued by a trusted
authority for the needs of the participating companies. The tokens would remain digitally
attached to their underlying asset throughout the supply chain. Once the transaction is
complete, the smart contract is triggered and tokens change hands (Cann).
Smart contracts protect a party's anonymity, only revealing the information necessary to
complete the transaction. In 2017, 55% of individuals surveyed stated that they declined
to buy items online because of reservations about how third parties would use their
identities. Likewise, 82% stated that they would not be comfortable with the sale of their
data to third parties in exchange for speed, convenience, product range, home delivery, or
pricing comparisons. Smart contracts can be coded to provide an avenue to share only
the necessary information, alleviating consumer concerns (KPMG).
— Panetta, “Why Blockchain’s Smart Contracts Aren’t Ready for the Business World”
It is estimated “that by 2022,
ratified unbundled (that is,
defined impact) smart
contracts will be in use by
more than 25% of global
organizations.”
BLOCKCHAIN 2.0: SIGNALS & DRIVERS
TREND REPORT 2018 / Info-Tech Research Group 61
How does the trend score on the five key business outcomes?
BLOCKCHAIN 2.0: BUSINESS OUTCOMES SCORECARD
62TREND REPORT 2018 / Info-Tech Research Group
To what extent does the trend allow the business to free up human capital through automation? Does it integrate with stakeholders’ existing technology? Is the technology able to quickly increase capacity? Can it learn from its own outputs? Will it deliver a strong social impact on user and customer experience?
Spot-on
High
Medium
Low
BLOCKCHAIN 2.0: BUSINESS OUTCOMES SCORECARD
TREND REPORT 2018 / Info-Tech Research Group
Integration: Spot-onBlockchain is best suited for organizations with complex value chains
and multiple partners, and those wishing to improve data consistency.
Blockchain's major benefits integrate disparate systems and
resources. By providing a distributed ledger, blockchain gives each
partner in the chain access to an up-to-date copy of the data. Data will
no longer go unverified across separate systems.
How does the trend score on the five key business outcomes?
Automation: HighDistributed ledger technology and smart contracts enable a level of
automation in numerous industries and across numerous
processes. These technologies enhance automation through the
elimination of intermediaries and record disputes. Time is also
saved from auditing records by the distributed ledger. Automation
will be further enhanced when blockchain converges with other
technologies such as AI, robotics, and internet of things.
63
BLOCKCHAIN 2.0: BUSINESS OUTCOMES SCORECARD
TREND REPORT 2018 / Info-Tech Research Group
Scale: MediumCurrent blockchain technology providers and cryptocurrencies that
leverage blockchain technology are not equal to the scalability of
traditional providers. Bitcoin can provide 6 transactions per second,
Ethereum can provide 20 transactions per second, and Visa can
provide 1,667 transactions per second. There are blockchain
networks with the same scalability as traditional providers, but each
can only transact a specific process (Steemit).
How does the trend score on the five key business outcomes?
Intelligence: LowThere are no current instances of blockchain technology leveraging
past transactions to optimize future transactions without the
assistance of human analysis. As applications of blockchain increase,
this could be a field for future development.
Impact: Spot-onAt its core, blockchain provides a digital mechanism for transparently
recording and viewing any transaction ever made on a ledger. It
operates through a decentralized computing network with a record of
transactions that cannot be hacked or altered. While the internet
serves as an information exchange, blockchain offers a “value
exchange.” The highest value will be achieved in parts of the world
where trust of centralized institutions is low. Blockchain's
decentralization and immutability holds centralized institutions
accountable for their records and enables people to exchange value
without intermediaries.
64
BLOCKCHAIN 2.0: RISK & UNCERTAINTY
TREND REPORT 2018 / Info-Tech Research Group 65
Risk Considerations
Proof of Stake
While proof of stake (PoS) is a promising answer to the power consumption
limits of proof of work, it is not without a downside. Perhaps most alarmingly,
PoS creates a situation where the rich get richer.
PoS rests on the concept that each validating user will receive a reward equal to
the amount of currency they have. If PoS were used by the bitcoin blockchain,
an individual owning 3% of bitcoin would receive 3% of the reward. Each
validator grows their share in the total pool of currency by the amount they
currently own. This means that those who start with less currency will have a
hard time catching up.
Critical Uncertainties
Proof of Stake
PoS could decimate the up-and-coming
cryptocurrency mining industry, rendering
mining rigs obsolete. Mining companies that
have invested billions of dollars in this
specialized hardware may not recover. This
could lead to serious fluctuations in the
pricing of cryptocurrencies, and in turn affect
the economy as a whole.
BLOCKCHAIN 2.0: RISK & UNCERTAINTY
TREND REPORT 2018 / Info-Tech Research Group 66
Risk Considerations
Smart Contracts
Smart contracts that have been written flawlessly promise significant
benefit, but the technology is immature. Smart contracts execute based on
written code, and flaws in this code can be exploited with devastating
financial repercussions for users. The fact that actions executed by the
smart contract are immutable only compound these risks. The only proven
way to alleviate the damage caused by these code flaws is to have the
majority stakeholders in the blockchain network intervene. This was
demonstrated with Ethereum's DAO hack.
Critical Uncertainties
Smart Contracts
There is no means of ensuring that the code in
smart contracts is flawless, and errors in even a
single line of code can be disastrous. Reversal
of damages caused by contracts is ad hoc, and
at the discretion of the majority stakeholders in
a public blockchain. Losses that result from
contract code flaws should be treated as
definite and irreversible.
Situation• “The DAO” is the name of a particular DAO, conceived of and programmed by
the team behind German start-up Slock.it – a company building “smart locks” that let people share their things (cars, boats, apartments) in a decentralized version of Airbnb.
• The DAO launched with a 28-day funding window. It became the largest crowdfunding in history, raising over $150 million. This was the equivalent of 12.7 million ether.
• During the crowdsale, several people expressed concerns that the code was vulnerable to attack (Siegel).
Action• An attacker managed to drain more than 3.6 million ether into a “child DAO” that
had the same structure as The DAO. The code of the smart contract itself is meant to be the ultimate arbiter of "the deal" it represents, and any flaws in the code can allow for funds to be stolen with the invested parties unable to do anything to stop the hackers.
• Two solutions were proposed to resolve the issue: One was a soft fork. This installs a “switch” in the basic Ethereum code that prevents the movement of any ether out of the DAO or its children. The second was a hard fork. It asked the miners to completely unwind the theft and return all ether to The DAO, where it could be redeemed by token holders automatically, thereby ending The DAO (Madeira).
Result• The vast majority of people (89%) voted for the hard fork, and it was approved
by Ether holders.
• The investors were only able to recover their funds with the cryptocurrency equivalent of a central bank bailout from the Ethereum Foundation. This attack demonstrates the serious nature of smart contract risks, and the cost required to respond to an attack.
Background
The Ethereum network runs a blockchain that allows people to exchange tokens of value, called ether. Ethereum also allows people to write smart contracts and input them onto the network.
DAO stands for decentralized autonomous organization. Its goal is to codify the rules and decision making of an organization. This eliminates the need for documents and people in governance, creating a structure with decentralized control.
Here’s how it works:• A group of people writes the smart contracts (programs)
that will run the organization.
• There is an initial funding period, when people add funds to the DAO by purchasing tokens that represent ownership. DAOs created on Ethereum collect ether from investors and distribute DAO tokens. Sometimes, this is called a crowdsale, or an initial coin offering (ICO).
• When the funding period is over, the DAO begins to operate.
• People can then make proposals to the DAO on how to spend the money, and the members who have bought in can vote to approve these proposals (Siegel).
Case Study (1/2)
Industry:
Technology
Desired business outcomes:
Automation
BLOCKCHAIN 2.0: CASE STUDY
Risks of Smart Contracts
67
Action• The Estonian government partnered with Guardtime, a company specializing in
blockchain for government security. The government deployed a blockchain called "KSI" through its networks.
• The Estonian government has worked with Guardtime to store and secure all of the country's health records on the blockchain. Every update to healthcare records and every instance of access to healthcare records is now registered in the blockchain (Williams-Grut).
• Using blockchain, the Estonian government has created the Electronic Coordination System for Draft Legislation. Every law drafted since February 2003 has been uploaded onto the system. Readers can now view submitted legislation and see status and changes made to legislation in one location.
Result• Healthcare records are stored on the blockchain, making it impossible for
government, doctors, and hackers to change or tamper with a citizen’s record. Citizens can also sue if they discover their records have been accessed without a just reason.
• Blockchain technology contributed to Estonia achieving the record for second-fastest court proceedings in Europe. Interpreting laws is easier when the most up-to-date laws are accessible in one place, saving valuable time. Blockchain technology also helps ensure that involved parties can only access the information they are entitled to, and can validate who sees what information and when (e-Estonia).
Situation
• In 2007, Estonia experienced a cyberattack across most of the country’s critical government information technology infrastructure. The attack crippled dozens of government sites and jeopardized countless document records.
• At the time of attack, Estonia was one of the most "wired" countries in the world. The attack prompted Estonia to look for ways to prevent future attacks.
• A digital society is by its nature exposed to cyber-attacks. Since the 2007 attacks, Estonia has invested in blockchain technology to ensure government data integrity and protect it against threats (Davis).
Case Study (2/2)
Industry:
Government
Desired business outcomes:
Impact, Automation
BLOCKCHAIN 2.0: CASE STUDY
Blockchain in Government
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Resources & Recommendations
Recommendations• Set up smart contracts in non-critical processes first or re-
use existing smart contracts that have been tried and proven.
• Uncover what business processes in your organization may be automated with smart contracts. Focus on processes that require multiple parties.
• For organizations that leverage distributed applications, ICOs, or work with vendors building distributed applications on a public blockchain, keep an eye on the PoS shift. Any unforeseen issues that occur with the shift to PoS can impact vendors that work with these public blockchains. If your organization works with these vendors, this can impact your business.
BLOCKCHAIN 2.0: RESOURCES &
RECOMMENDATIONS
TREND REPORT 2018 / Info-Tech Research Group 69
For Premium Members• Learn about blockchain basics and underpinning blockchain
technology. • Explore Blockchain: Foundational Technology of the Future
to understand the disruptive nature of blockchain. • Explore Blockchain in Oil and Gas
Although tremendously exciting, the adoption of emerging
technologies is also risky and uncertain. Info-Tech provides research
and recommendations across industries to support a business-
outcome-driven approach that ensures you get the value from your
technology investments.
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BLOCKCHAIN 2.0: BIBLIOGRAPHY
TREND REPORT 2018 / Info-Tech Research Group 70
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Contributors
2018 CIO TRENDS
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Tom AndriolaCIOUniversity of California
Tom brings over 25 years of experience as a global business and technology executive. Those years have been spent in a variety of roles ranging from a business transformation leader for a multi-billion dollar enterprise to a global CIO with staff around the world to being employee #1 of a new business.
Ken BaineyFormer CIOAlberta Government
Ken is a retired senior IT professional with 35 years of industry experience. He has functioned in the roles of CIO, senior performance manager, enterprise/systems architect, and IT management consultant at many organizations in Canada and the United States. He has leadership experience in performance management and implementing numerous business application systems in private, public, and academic sectors. Ken is a researcher, speaker, lecturer and author of two highly acclaimed textbooks on IT project management and IT performance management.
Rui DongAngel Investor, Blockchain Advisor, Speaker
Rui writes about the blockchain industry from the perspective of an investor, focusing on cutting through the hype to underlying technological transformations. He has a diverse background spanning actuarial science, psychology, and full track web development. He is a successful portfolio fund manager, focusing on cryptocurrency.
Contributors
2018 CIO TRENDS
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Dean HamiltonGeneral Manager, Service Enablement Business UnitAccelerite
Dean is an engineer, serial entrepreneur, and technology executive with over 30 years of innovation experience. Dean has led successful technology innovation efforts in the areas of next-generation networking, cloud orchestration, machine-to-machine communications, internet of things, and enterprise network security, in both large public companies and venture-backed start-ups.
Jas KhehraCo-FounderEspresso Claims
Jas Khehra is the Co-Founder of Espresso Claims, a start-up looking to help foster further innovation in the insurance industry. He holds a Master's in International Business from Hult International Business School, where he spent time in San Francisco and the UAE implementing market penetration strategies for start-ups. He is part of Cloud Security Alliance (San Francisco Chapter) currently as a research and contributor to blockchain use cases within the health sector.
Christopher MalmoFreelance Reporter and Communications Officer,BC Financial Institutions Commission
Christopher Malmo is a freelance reporter and communications officer at the BC Financial Institutions Commission. He has been covering blockchain technology, digital and trade policy, and virtual reality for Motherboard since 2013. In 2015, Chris was the first reporter to publish a story in a mainstream publication about bitcoin's extraordinary energy consumption, and has since written updates examining Ethereum energy use and a comparison of gold mining and bitcoin mining's energy footprints.
Contributors
2018 CIO TRENDS
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Wayne SadinChief Information & Digital OfficerAffinitas Life
Wayne is an experienced executive who assesses complex IT and business environments, then develops tactical and strategic plans to transform IT into a strategic asset. Wayne has experience managing rapid growth and changes in business strategy and technology.
Shane SaundersonPhD student, Human-robot interaction, University of TorontoFormer VP, IC/Things at Idea Couture
A veteran of the start-up space, Shane has a background in product design, mobile robotics, connected devices, and automation. Shane holds an MBA in Technology and Innovation from the Ted Rogers School of Management at Ryerson University in Toronto and a B. Eng., Mechanical from McGill University in Montreal.
Elton TuckerIT Architect and Strategist
Elton has over 20 years’ experience in IT, including ITIL and operations, infrastructure design, project management, enterprise architecture, cloud strategy, team leadership, and executive management.
Contributors
2018 CIO TRENDS
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Jean-Philippe VergneAssociate Professor of StrategyIvey Business School, Western University
Dr. Vergne's research focuses on organization theory and strategy, with expertise in cryptocurrency, blockchain, and FinTech. He is the founding coordinator of the Crypto Capitalism Center and the co-Director of the Scotiabank Digital Banking Lab at Ivey Business School. He has co-authored a book entitled The Pirate Organization: Lessons from the Fringes of Capitalism, published with Harvard Business Review Press, and regularly speaks at major conferences, including Google Zeitgeist, TEDx, and South by Southwest Interactive. You can find him on Twitter @PirateOrg.
Dimitri VolkmannIndustry Expert in Business Data and (Industrial) IoT
Dimitri is a Products and Markets Executive with 25+ years of expertise in Information Technology, and specifically on how to build strategy and drive product management and product marketing teams to bring technology products to market successfully. He is considered a leader in enterprise applications platforms, enterprise collaboration and social software, software as a service, cloud computing, and digital twin technologies.