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CHINA PREPARES FOR
AN ICEFREE ARCTIC
ld jkobso*
SUMMARY
wThe prospect o the Arctic
being navigable during summer
months as a result o climate
change has impelled the
Chinese Government to
allocate more resources to
research in the High North.
Several Chinese academics have
encouraged their government
to be aware o the political,
economic and military
implications o shorter shipping
routes and untapped energyresources. However, Chinese
ocials advocate cautious
Arctic policies or ear o
causing alarm and provoking
countermeasures among the
Arctic states.
Chinas insistence on respect
or sovereignty as a guiding
principle o international
relations deters it rom
questioning the territorial
rights o Arctic states.Furthermore, China is aware
that its size and rise to major
power status evoke jitters, but
at the same time it is striving to
position itsel so that it will not
be excluded rom access to the
Arctic.
Smaller Arctic Council
members have an opportunity
to lay the oundation or a
unique relationship with China
by engaging Chinese ocialsand academics on Arctic
issuesranging rom climate
change and maritime rescue
operations to commercial
shipping routes and resource
exploration.
No. 2010/2 March 2010
SIPRI Insights on Peace and Security
I. Introduction
China i ain inain anin h nqn f h min fh i in h Ai Oan a a f ima han. Th f h
Ai in navia in mm mnh, ain h h hi-in an a na n , ha im h Chi-n Gvnmn aa m Ai ah. Chinia hav a a hin a wha in f ii w hChina n fm an i-f Ai nvinmn. China i a a iavan-a a i i nih an Ai ia ai ha n Ai a, an n vin ih nwa ninna hvn an AiCni mm a wih h ih aiia in h iin f Aiii. Di i min wa iin, China an x a in minin h iia famw an a fnain f f
Ai aivii.1
Th fm i-v Ai i nin an xaina an-fmain a a f h nn a wih whih h i i imin-ihin ( 1).2 Eima a whn h Ai Oan nin i-f in h mm an va a, fm 2013 2060.3 Th min f h Ai i nmi, miia an nvin-mna han h vnan f h in. In 2008 h v iaaCanaa, Dnma, Nwa, Ria an h Uni Sam-mi hmv h xiin a famw f h Ai an h mn f i vain aim.4 Di h a-
1See box 1 below for the current legal and political framework governing the Arctic.2According to one report, the annual average extent of Arctic Ocean ice has shrunk by 2.7% per
decade, with a decrease of 7.4% per decade during the summer months. Solomon, S. et al. (eds), Cli-mate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge University
Press: Cambridge, 2007), p. 7.3For estimates of 2013, 2040 and 2060 see Grupta, A., Geopolitical implications of Arctic melt-
down,Strategic Analysis, vol. 33, no. 2 (Mar. 2009), p. 174; Arctic Council, Arctic Marine Shipping
Assessment 2009 Report (Arctic Council: Apr. 2009), p. 30; and US National Snow and Ice Data
Center, Arctic Sea ice shrinks as temperatures rise, Press release, 3 Oct. 2006, .4Arctic Ocean Conference, Ilulissat Declaration, Ilulissat, Greenland, 28 May 2008, . See also UN to rule on Arctic seabed
ownership,Daily Telegraph , 29 May 2008.
* The author is indebted to Jingchao Peng for his invaluable research assistance during
the process of writing this paper. She also thanks the Norwegian Ministry of ForeignAairs for providing support for her research on China and the Arctic.
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an, h vvin iain inh Ai nia a nw iia iinvvin a nn-ia a,ia ain i a f aa an -xain ih. Cnqn,ima n n in China
a Aia, E an Nh Amia a nin hi an-in h in in ahi anfmain an i -nmi, iia an iiaimiain.
T a China ha a awai-an- aah Aivmn, wa ha aivv w a aam inh ni Chinaiz an a a a iin aw.5 Chin ia ahf v ai whnfmain hi viw n Chi-na in in h Ai.6 Th ha China Ai ah
aivii main imai f n h imai an nvinmna n-qn f h i min in h Ai. Hwv, in n a Chinia an ah hav a a a h mmia, iiaan i imiain f China f a ana i-f Ai in.7
Thi a xamin hinin amn Chin ia an ha n hiia imnin f a hanin Ai. I vi an vviw f Chinaini, mmia an i in in h Ai (in IIan III), an hn in China aah h innaina ii fh Ai (in IV). Cnin a ivn in in V.
5Guo, P., Associate Professor of Ocean University of China, Interview with the author, Qingdao,
25 June 2009.6The author had o-the-record discussions with 13 Chinese ocials and researchers dealing
with Arctic issues in Beijing and Shanghai between 4 Apr. 2009 and 9 Feb. 2010.7 See e.g. Li, Z., [Analysis of Chinas strategy on the Arctic route],
Zhongguo Ruankexue, no. 1 (2009), pp. 17; Li, Z., [Obs-
tacles to Chinas participation in the international Arctic route mechanism and countermeasures],
Zhongguo Hanghai, vol. 32, no. 2 (June 2009), pp. 98102; Guo, P., [A big powers
strategy points at the Arctic],Liaowang, no. 27 (2009), p. 64; Ren, X. and Li, Y.,
[A tentative analysis on sovereignty dispute over the Arctic Ocean and Chinas inter-
national responsibility],Langang Shian Xueyuan Xuebao (Shehui Kexue Ban), vol. 24, no. 4 (Aug.
2008), pp. 6669; and Zhao, Y., [A brief analysis of
legal challenges in the Arctic region and its inuence on China],Haiyang Fazhan Yu Guanli, vol. 26,no. 3 (Mar. 2009), pp. 1721.
1982
Recorded and projected
minimum extent of ice:
201030
204060
207090
Figure 1. Projected decrease of Arctic sea ice
Source: United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), GRID-Arendal, Maps and
Graphics Library, .
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c prepres or ce-ree rctc 3
II. Chinas expanding polar research capabilities
China ha n f h w n a ini ah aaiii.8Sin 1984 China ha aniz 26 xiin an aih 3 ahain in h Anai.9 Th Ai am a f fm 1995, whn a f Chin ini an nai av h Nh P nf an n ah n h Ai Oan i v, ima annvinmn. China Ai ah xiin a a in1999 an in hn i ha ai w m xiin, in 2003 an2008, wih a fh ann f h mm f 2010. China Aiah ain, Hanh (Yw Riv), wa fn a N-n inNwa Svaa ahia in J 2004.10
Sin 1994 China ha n a xain na h RahVXuelong(Snw Dan), whih wa ha fm Uain in 1993.Th 163-m-n v, wih a iamn f 21 000 nn, i hw a (nn-na) ia.11 Hwv, in O 2009 hSa Cni (h Chin Cain) i ha Xuelong an n nm h man f h n xanin a ah an nh an i.12 Af mnh f iain wn hain an-han fin v iin a Chin v, h vnmnav h iin f a nw hih-h a xiin ah i-
a.13 Pimina an a Chin-i ia a h f 2 iin an ($300 miin) ha n n wa wihin h Chin
Ai an Anai Aminiain (CAA) in a a a 2009. Thnw v, x aina in 2013, wi -in Chi-n an fin an an i in China.14 I wi ma han Xue-long, wih a iamn f n 8000 nn.15
Bi i wn ini xiin, China ha aa wih in-naina an mni h Ai nvinmna han. In 1997,China in h Innaina Ai Sin Cmmi (IASC), a nn-
8Zhu, Y., [We are already one of the strongest countries to con-
duct polar scientic expedition],Nanang Dushi Bao, 25 Oct. 2009; and Spears, K. J., China and the
Arctic: the awakening snow dragon, China Brie, vol. 9, no. 6 (18 Ma r. 2009).9 : [Deputy Administrator: Chinas polar expe-
dition has entered a new period of development], Xinhua, 20 Nov. 2009, .10 [Arctic region], Xinhua, 13 June 2006, ; and : [News background: the Chinese and the
Arctic], Xinhua, 11 July 2008, .
11Zhu (note 8); and Spears (note 8).12 2013 [China will build a new polar expedi-
tion icebreaker and plans to put it in use in 2013], Xinhua, 19 Nov. 2009, ; 25: [25th
anniversary of Chinas Antarctic expedition: peaceful utilization of the Antarctic will never be out
of date], Xinhua, 14 Oct. 2009, .13 25: (note 12). In addition, icebreaker supporting
facilities such as a wharf, storehouse and a training base will be built.14Xu, C., [China is planning to independently build a polar exped-
ition icebreaker with a capacity of 10 000 tonnes],Xin Jing Bao, 15 Jan. 2009, . At the time of writing the identity of the possible
foreign partners had not been made public.15 2013 (note 12).
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vnmna anizain ha aim faiia miiiina ahn h Ai in an i in h ah m. A h 2005 Ai Si-n Smmi h a Knmin, Ynnan Pvin, China wa invi inh N-n Sin Mana Cmmi, whih wa aih in1994 nhan ain amn h ah n a N-n. Fm han a a Chin ah an ia hav aiia ininnaina mina ain wih nvinmna, ini an imaii in h Ai. Fm Mah 2007 Mah 2009 a f China x w in h Innaina Pa Ya amm, an in-naina ini amm ha f n h Ai an Anai.
China ima Ai-f ah iniin a: (a ) h PaRah Ini f China (PRIC) in Shanhai, wih a a f 142 ,whih i in ha f a xiin nXuelongan n mhn-iv i f h a in; (b) h China Ini f Main Aai,h ah amn wihin h Sa Oani Aminiain (SOA) inBiin, whih main ah n innaina maiim aw anChina an vmn a; an (c) h Ini f Oan, amiiiina main in ah an vmn ini nh Chin Aam f Sin. In aiin, Ai-a ah in a h Oan Univi f China in Qina, Daian MaiimUnivi, Xiamn Univi, Tni Univi in Shanhai, h Chin
Figure 2. A Chinese view of Arctic sea routes
The captions label Shanghai, Rotterdam, New York, the North East Sea Route (red) and the North West Sea Route (blue).
Source: Chinese Arctic and Antarctic Administration, ; map drawn byHao Xiaoguang, .
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Anai Cn f Svin an Main a Whan Univi, an hRah Cn f Main Dvmn f China in Qina.16 Th aah n wa aih in 2006 an Wan Shan, fm haf h SOA, wa ain a i. Th n ima i niv, ai an mai ah nnin China mamaiim m an vi naiv vi f h SOA.17
Ahh h i n Chin iniin v ia ahn Ai ii, h a a hanf f inivia wh hav ihai an ha ha f n Ai ai an ii.Sin h mi-2000 Chin ah an ia havxan hi aiiain in innaina minafin n mmia, a an iia Aii. In a ma nhan China nanin fh iia, a an miia imnin f h Ai, inSm 2007 h Chin Gvnmn anh aah ni Ai I Rah invvinha an ia fm an China. Th 10 ah i a: h
Ai an hman i, Ai an hi xiain, Aiini ah, Ai anain, Ai aw, Ai ii anima, miia fa in h Ai, China Ai aivii, h
Ai ai iin, an China Ai i an mmnain.18Th ah , aniz h CAA, wa m 2009, h w n ma i.
III. Chinas commercial and strategic interests in the Arctic
Ba China nm i ian n fin a, h a aniammia imiain if hiin a hn in h mmmnh ah a. Na haf f China mi (GDP) ihh nn n hiin.19 Th i fm Shanhai Hamvia h Nhn Sa Rwhih n an h nh a f Ria fmh Bin Sai in h a Nvaa Zma in h wi 6400 i-m h han h via h Sai f Maaa an h Sz Cana( 2).20 Mv, ia, h f inan f hi av-in via h Gf f An wa h Sz Cana ina m han nf
wn Sm 2008 an Mah 2009.21
16The Research Centre for Marine Developments of China is managed by the Ministry of Edu-
cation and the SOA. Its oces are located at Ocean University of China.17Zhao, G., 40 [Research Center for Marine Devel-
opments of China will launch 40 research topics this year],Zhongguo Haiyang Bao, 26 June 2009,
(authors translation).18Wang, H. et al. (eds), 2008 [China ocean yearbook 2008] (Ocean Press: Beijing,
2008).19The precise share of Chinas GDP that depends on shipping is dicult to determine. It is stated
as 46% in e.g. Gao, W., Executive Vice President of COSCO Group, Development strateg y of Chinese
Shipping Company under the multilateral f ramework of WTO, Speech at the International Mari-
time Forum, 30 Oct . 2003, .20 International Northern Sea Route Programme, ; and Guo, P. et
al., [A study of the international issues of the Arctic route] (Ocean Press:
Beijing, Oct. 2009), pp. 32326. The Northern Sea Route is also known as the North East Route or
North East Passage.
21Gullestrup, P. and Stumbaum, M.-B., EU maritime interests and the piracy problem: a per-spective from the shipping industry, eds B. van Ginkel and F.-P. van der Putten, The International
Chinese research remains primarily
ocused on how the melting Arctic will
aect Chinas continental and oceanic
environment
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6 pgtopdutyo.2010/2
ChineseresearchremainsrimarilcsenhwhemelinArcic
willafecChinascninenalanceanicenvirnmenanhwinrn
schchanesclafecmesicariclralanecnmicevelmen.
Hwever,asmallnmberChineseresearchersarebliclencrain
hevernmenacivelrearerhecmmercialansraeicr-
niieshaamelinArcicresens.LiZhenDalianMariimeUni-
versihas,eherwihaeamsecialiss,assesseChinasavanaes
anisavanaeswhenheArcicsearesen(seere3).Wh-
everhascnrlverheArcicrewillcnrlhenewassaewrl
ecnmics an inernainal sraeies, wries Li, reerrin bh he
shreneshiinresbeweenEasAsiaanErerNrhAmerica
anheabnanil,as,mineralansherresrcesresmebein
heArcic.22CmmeninnhesccesslesvaesrmShKrea
Response to Somali Piracy: Challenges and Opportunities (Martinus Nijho: Leiden, forthcoming
2010).22 Li,Zhongguo Hanghai (note 7), (authors translation).
Figure 3. A Chinese specialist panels SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) assessment of use of
Arctic sea routes
Source: Li, Z., [Analysis of Chinas strategy on the Arctic route],Zhongguo Ruankexue, no. 1 (2009), pp. 17.
Chinas status as a major export country Elevation of Chinas global status
Enhancement of Chinas Arctic exploration and
research capacity
Strengthening of Chinese shipping companies
China doesnt have the absolute right to speak
in global aairs
Chinas cultural elements (most international
laws are based on Western culture) China is not an Arctic Ocean coastal state
Chinas vessel-building technology and logistic
planning techniques are not the most advanced
globally
The logistic costs of shipping companies will be
reduced
Asias high latitude ports will become new
centres for international shipping
Arctic shipping has high tourist value
Global trade and shipping patterns will change
in a way that favours China
Current international laws are not favourable to
Chinas interests in Arctic shipping
Scrambles among Arctic Ocean coastal states
such as Canada, Russia and the United States
Chinese shipping companies will face erce
competition
Negative eects on Chinas ports in lower
latitudes
Chinas successful response
to the Arctic shipping
routes problem
Strengths Weaknesses
OpportunitiesThreats
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h Nhan via h Nhn Sa R in h mm f 2009 wGman mmia v, Chn Xn f h China Ini f In-naina Si ai ha h nin f h Ai wi avan hvmn f China nh-a in an an aa aa . . . I i fiman Ea Aian ain a w.23 Chn a ai ha Chinah hav a n-m viin ain Ai hiin.
Li Zhnf ha iiiz h fa ha Chin ah n h Ai hi-in ha n n ann an n in a mhniv mann na China i in. Ain Li, China ahfai vi fnamna infmain an ini fn f China ma i Ai a an hf China w a i ih in h innaina ana i imi.24 Thi in f iiimf h vnmn aah Chin ha i a in
Ai-a iain. Li ai wa ih in anaina na amini h ii China
Aiain f Sin an Thn (CAST). Li in ha h Ai a ha inian miia va, a faniz h ni. In a a n- aia h Ai an f h P Liain Am, Sni CnHan Xn wan ha h iii f f f ann inh Ai mx vin i.25 Th inain miiaiman f an i-f Ai i in in iin inn a a v ia a nhn hi miia aaiiiin h Ai.26
Anh Chin ah n Ai ii, G Piqin f h OanUnivi f China, ha n win qi a iia a Li a vn-mn ii, in mia inviw h ha vi iava fChina minan naa in-in Ai ah an ai ii n in China in main na an a a f Ai aai.27G ha ai ha China, whih i aniinin fm a ina a aw, h m aiv in innaina Ai aai. H n haan n ha a mhniv ah n Pa ii wi x fm in a iiv w in h manamn f h Ai anhf f in a aiv iin.28
23 Zhou, Z., [The opening of Arctic shipping triggers an unclear battle
in the deep sea],Liaoning Ribao, 15 Oct. 2009.
24 Li,Zhongguo Hanghai (note 7), (authors translation). The journal, China navigation, is pub-lished by the China Institute of Navigation and administered by CAST, the largest quasi-govern-
mental supervisory body for science and technology research institutes in China.25 Han, X., [Closely watched dispute over Arctic sovereignty],Bingqi
Zhishi Fangwu Guancha Jia, vol. 253, no. 9B (Sep. 2008), pp. 1619.26 E.g. in Aug. 2007 Canada announced that it was setting up an Arctic military training centre in
Resolute Bay, on the Arctic; in Mar. 2009 Russia announced that it will establish a military force to
protect its Arctic interests; in July 2009 the Danish Parliament approved a plan to set up an Arctic
military command and task force by 2014; in Aug. 2009 Norway moved its centre of military oper-
ations from Jtt, in the south of the country, to Reitan, in the north; and in Nov. 2009 the US Navy
made public its rst Arctic road map to guide its policy, strategy and investments in the Arctic. See
e.g. Ebinger, C. K. and Za mbetakis, E., The geopolitics of Arctic melt,International Afairs, vol. 85,
no. 6 (2009); and US Navy, Chief of Naval Operations, U.S. Navy Arctic roadmap, Oct. 2009.27 New cold wars over Arctic wealth, Global Times, 27 July 2009.
28 Interview with Guo, P., in Xie, K., [The future of the polar region iscrucial to China], Cankao Xiaoxi, 8 Nov. 2007 (authors translat ion).
The Arctic has signifcant military
value, a act recognized by other
countries
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Chin Ai iai anw h am naini a man fhi Wn na whn nmain hw aiv h Ai w ima in main h n hh hSz an Panama ana.29 Ahh aa an h Nhn Sa Rfm an China Wn E w ania hn h
n, hih inan mim, a f infa an hah n-iin ma ma h Ai mmia nvia, a a in hh m. Dif i wi nin a m f hi vn whn h
Ai aa a ia m i-f.30 Ba f h min fGnan i a, h nm f i i x ina, finhi a a w an ma . Fhm, h ha-w h f m f h aa an h hiin (in aiah Bin Sai) ma h Ai ni f i a hi.
Th nin f h Ai wi a vi a nw v f hn an h naa n whih China nmi whinain i. Th US Gia Sv ima ha h Ai n-ain 30 n f h w niv a an 13 n f hw niv i .31 Aiina, h in nain va
amn f a, ni, , nn, a, zin, ,iv, iamn, manan, hmim an ianim.32
Th hnia han aia wih xainn an mina i in h Ai hav n n
h Chin an Wn v.33 T a xih Ai , China n an wih fin
mani a, a n Chin ha n, h i a ah a awn Chin an avan fin -a i xain hn. 34
Ria, whih n man f h in Ai wa, a h hhn an h aia n xa hmnin h wa f i-aa in vn in Rian wa in Chin aia an Wn
29 See e.g. Yu, B. and Li, Y., [Comprehensive evaluation of the Northern
Sea Route],Dalian Haishi Daxue Xuebao, vol. 35 (June 2009), p. 228; Bai, C., Li, Z. and Yang, Z.,
[Research of Arctic sea routes],Hanghai Jishu, no. 5 (2009), pp. 79. ; and Zha ng, X. et a l.,
[Assessment of the economic poten-
tial of Arctic sea routes and its strategic signicance for the development of Chinas economy],
Zhongguo Ruankexue, Supplementary issue 2, 2009, pp. 8693. For articles by Western specialists
questioning the practicability of the Arctic shipping routes see e.g. Lasserre, F., High North ship-
ping: myths a nd realities, eds S. G. Holtsmark and B. A. Smith-Windsor,Security Prospects in the
High North: Geostrategic Thaw or Freeze?, NATO Defense College (NDC) Forum Paper no. 7 (NDC:Rome, May 2009), pp. 17999; and Christensen, S. A., Are the northern sea routes really the short-
est?, DIIS Brief, Mar. 2009, .30 Christensen (note 29), p. 3.31Gautier, D. et al., Assessment of undiscovered oil and gas in the Arctic,Science, 29 May 2009.32 ECON,Arctic Shipping 2030: From Russia with Oil, Stormy Passage, or Arctic Great Game?,
ECON Report 2007-070 (ECON: Oslo, 2007), p. 4.33 See e.g. Feng, D., Lu, C. and Zhou, S., [Petroleum exploitation in the
Arctic region: competition and obstacles],Jieneng Jishu, vol. 27, no. 4 (July 2009); and Hai, T.,
, [Vied for by oil companies, the Arcticthe next Middle East?],
Guoji Xianqu Daobao, 29 July 2008. For scepticism expressed by Western analysts on the question of
whether energy resources in the Arctic are a competitive alternative to other u ntapped resources
see e.g. Oerdal, K., High North energ y: myths a nd realities, eds Holtsmark and Smith-Windsor
(note 29), pp. 15178.
34 Li, Q., [The situation and challenges for deep water oil andgas exploration and exploitation in China],Zhongguo Haishang Youqi, vol. 18, no. 2 (Apr. 2006).
To be able to exploit the Arctics
resources, China needs to partner with
oreign companies
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Baziian hn.35 F xam, whn in a 2009Ria a-wni man Rnf annn an a f h ain in v 30 h i n Ria Ai ninna hf, inx i ha i w n a v h i n iwn.36 Maiv aia wi n in aiin nw f hihavan hn an iaiz manamn i. Anhnia miaa in vn in whih China aia inxhan f h ni ain h xin i in -waiin i h nin ain wn Sai, Ta anGazm v h ha f h Shman a in h BanSa. Thi i a n n a a h mmia ni a afmia hnia han.37
IV. China and Arctic politics
Ahh H Zhn, Chin aian mini f fin aai, haai China n hav an Ai a, h n aa hav a a ana ain h Ai.38 H ma hi amn whianin an Ai fm aniz h Nwian Gvnmn nSvaa in Jn 2009. Hi h a h fm, an wih hi mmn Chin nai af h fm, fm h m --a an m-hniv ia aiain f China hinin n h ii f h
Ai an in vin i.In in wih h n f-a vnin ini in innaina
aai, H mhaiz China wih i a vinv af hh ia. H x China f
Ai ni vin an iia ihf xam, in ain h ninna hfnw innaina aw inin h 1982Uni Nain Cnvnin n h Law f h Sa (UNCLOS; x 1). Ah am im, ain H, China hin h aw n nan v h iman ha a aiin fm h min fh i. I n h Ai Cni a h m innia ina vn-mna anizain. China ha aiia a an a h v in w
Ai Cni miniia min, in 2007 an 2009, an h ha iaiain an mann v a wi i a na i ( x 1). H h n f ain amn Aian nn-Ai a.
In hi h a Svaa, H anw ha h Ai i main aina i ai ha i i a an in-ina i imahan an innaina hiin. H i n mnin n an hnaa . Uniin, China w i h Ai a
35 E.g. Rosneft seeks licences for 30 oshore Arctic elds,FSU Oil & Gas Monitor, 21 Oct. 2009.
British Petroleum (BP), the Brazilian state-owned company PetroBras, Royal Dutch Shell a nd the
Norwegian company Statoil are currently the worlds leading deep sea energy drillers.36 Rosneft seeks licences for 30 oshore Arctic elds (note 35).37 Anker, M., The High North and Russo-Norwegian bilateral economic relations,Russia, Fin-
land and Norway: Economic Essays, BOFIT Online no. 15 (Bank of Finla nd: Helsinki, 15 Dec. 2009),
pp. 3639.38 Ning, X., [A microcosm of the worlds
futureAssistant Minister of Foreign Aairs talks about H igh North Study Tour],Shijie Bolan,vol. 349, no. 19 (2009), p. 58.
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niz h in f nn-Ai a. A H ai, Whn mininh imiain f ninna hv, h Ai a n nn han ainhi amn hmv, m a nih ainhi wn h ninna hf an h innainamain aa ha i h mmn hman hia, n a aan faa ni in an h mmn in f h innainammni.39 Pf G Piqin i m i: Cimanain hav nan ha Ai aai a n n ina i a innaina n.40 G ha ima ha a 88 n f ha f h Ai Oan w n h n f h Ai iaa if h Cmmiin n h Limi f h Cninna Shf w av a h xiin x aim h Ai Oan ninnahf.41 Hwv, whn niin h nn f China an h nn-
Ai a i i wh ain in min ha h va mai f nwn
39 [Chinas perspective on Arctic matters], Shijie Zhishi, vol. 55, no. 15
(2009), (authors translation).40 Guo, P., [The Arctic is not desolate],Huanqiu, no. 17 (Sep. 2008).
41 Guo, P., Associate Professor, Ocean University of China, Interview with the author, Qingdao,25 June 2009.
Box 1. The international legal and political framework for the Arctic
United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS)
Opened or sig nature at Montego Bay, Jamaica, on 10 December 1982; entered into orce on 16 November 1994; 160 part ies
as o 1 January 2010; depositary UN Secretary-General
The convention aims to regulate all aspects of the resources of the sea and uses of the ocean. According to UNCLOS, coastal
(littoral) states have undisputed sovereign rights to their territorial sea and exclusive economic zone, which extend to a distance
of 200 nautical miles (370 kilometres) from their coastal baseline (articles 3 and 57). On ratication of UNCLOS, a country has
10 years to make claims to extend its 200-nautical-mile zone (Article 4).
In the case of the Arctic Ocean, the littoral states are Canada, Denmark, Norway, Russia and the United States. Russia ratied
UNCLOS in 1997 and in December 2001 it submitted to the UN Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf (CLCS) a
request that 120 million hectares of underwater terrain between the Lomonosov and Mendeleev ridges be conrmed as a
continuation of the Siberian shelf.a Norway ratied UNCLOS in 1996 and submitted its claim in November 2006.b Canada
(ratied in 2003) and Denmark (ratied in 2004) are in the process of preparing claims. The USA has not ratied UNCLOS.
Treaty text: United Nations Treaty Series, vol. 1833 (1994)
The Arctic CouncilEstablished by the Declaration on the Establishment o the Arctic Council (Ottawa Declaration), 19 September 1996;
inaugu rated 17 September 1998; 8 member states, 6 non-Arctic observer states and 3 ad hoc non-Arctic obser ver states
The Arctic Council is an intergovernmental forum for promoting cooperation among the Arctic states, in particular on issues of
sustainable development and environmental protection. The full member states are the eight circumpolar states: Canada,
Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Sweden, Norway, Russia and the United States. It is not an international organization with a rm
legal charter but rather an international forum designed to foster cooperation and collaboration on Arctic issues. Most member
states are opposed to broadening the Councils mandate to deal with legal issues, although they acknowledge that the changing
Arctic environment requires increased international cooperation on issues of trans-border interest.c
China, among others, has applied to become a permanent observer state. At the Arctic Councils April 2009 ministerial
meeting, no decision was taken on the applications. Currently, as an ad hoc observer China must apply to be admitted to each
Arctic Council meeting. dPermanent observer status does not dier from ad hoc observer status with regard to the inuence on
the decision-making process in ministerial meetings. Only Arctic Council member states have voting rights.e
Website:
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c prepres or ce-ree rctc 11
na n i in ni aa, ha i, wihin h ii-ma xiv nmi zn (EEZ) f h Ai ia a.42
Canaa an Nwa a h n ni hav h fa na wihChina in a fma iaa ia n Ai i. China an Nwa hava h a fw- ia in 2010. A h ChinaNwa ia- min in Jn 2009, ima han an a ah w ini- a h i f n mmn in, ahh h w i axhan viw n Ai ii, n i an a .43
I i na if an whn China wi i a m fma Ai a.Th i a f h 12h Fiv-Ya Pan (201115) f a xiinan a ah wi naiz af China m i 26h
Anai xiin in Mah 2010.44 In O 2009, n h v f hxiin, Chn Lianzn, D Di f h SOA, h m ih nh nx Fiv-Ya Pan na a. Th wi n China
42 See e.g. Oerdal (note 33); and Ebinger and Zambetakis (note 26).43 Gou, H., Chinese Ministr y of Foreign Aairs, Personal communication, 15 and 26 Jan. 2010;
and Svedahl, E., Minister Counsellor, Norwegian Embassy, Beijing, Personal communication,
13 Jan. 2010.44 : (note 9).
Box 1 continued
International Maritime Organization Guidelines for Ships Operating in Arctic Icecovered Waters
Approved October and December 2002; issued 23 December 2002.
The International Maritime Organization (IMO) Guidelines focus on the special climatic conditions of the Arctic and aim topromote the safety of navigation and to prevent pollution from ship operations in the Arctic. The Guidelines are not legally
binding: UNCLOS is the only existing law regulating maritime activities in the A rctic. Both Russia and Canada have adopted
strict legal regimes under UNCLOS for navigation in the Arctic within their respective area of jurisdiction.
Text: International Maritime Organization, MSC/Circ.1056 and MEPC/Circ.399, 23 Dec. 2002,
Treaty concerning the Archipelago of Spitsbergen (Svalbard Treaty)
Signed by the 9 original par ties at Paris, France, on 9 February 1920; entered into orce on 14 Augu st 1925; 40 parties as o
1 January 2010; depositary French Government
The treaty establishes Norways full sovereignty over the Svalbard archipelago but stipulates that it must remain demilitarized.
Citizens from all states party enjoy the same right of access to and residence in Svalbard. Eleven institutions from 10 countries
have established research stations at Ny-lesund, Svalbard, three of which are permanently manned.Treaty text:League o Nations Treaty Series, vol. 2 (1920)
a United Nations, Commission on Limits of Continental Shelf receives its rst submission, Press Release SEA/1729, 21 Dec. 2001, ; and Baev, P.,Russias Race or the Arctic and the New Geopolitics o the North Pole, Occa-
sional paper (Jamestown Foundation: Washington, DC, Oct. 2007), p. 4.b United Nations, Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf, Outer limits of the continental shelf beyond 200 nautical miles from the
baselines: submissions to the Commission: submission by the Kingdom of Norway, .c Ebinger, C. K. and Zambeta kis, E., The geopolitics of Arctic melt,International Afairs, vol. 85, no. 6 (2009), pp. 122730.d Bennet, M., Round-up from the Arctic Council Ministerial Meeting (2/2), The Arctic, Foreign Policy Blogs, 1 May 2009, .e Cleveland, J. W., The next generation of international organizations: lessons f rom the Arctic Council in addressing regional climate change,
Appalachian Natural Resources Law Journal, vol. 1, no. 2 (spring 2008).Jensen, ., The IMO Guidelines or Ships Operating in Arctic Ice-covered Waters: From Voluntary to Mandatory Tool or Navigation Saety and
Environmental Protection?, Fridtjof Nansen Institute (FNI) Report 2/2007 (FNI: Lysaker, Mar. 2007); and Ebinger and Zambetakis (note c).
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12 spr sgts o pece d securt y o. 2010/2
nw f h ima f ima han n h w a in, xanChina ini xain aivii, an a an aiv a in aaai an aih China ai iin. T amih h a,h SOA inn i h f w an ha w.45
V. Conclusions
Sva Chin aami a nain hi vnmn a hihiia ni an niz h iia, nmi an miiava f h Ai an hn -vaa China ih in h Ai in
an a i ai an.46 Chin iin ma, nh h han, ava ai Ai ii f fa fain aam an vin nma amn h
Ai a. Pf G Piqin ha vn ai h aam-i iii f an aian f Ai a.47 China i awa
ha i iz an i ma w a v i a h am imi i ivin iin if ha i wi n x fm a h
Ai.China aa aia wa f Ria innin in h Ai.
Chin v hav ma n f Ria iin in A 2007 m n-ian m ih v h Ai an h anin f aRian a n h Ai a ha am mnh.48 G ha ai ha hi in h Ai a in fa Ria an m h a han h innaina an innaina aw af h n f h wa.49China an h f h w w a a iavana if Ria aimv h nwa ain wn h Lmnv an Mnv ia iimiz a, in ha a, Ria an w hav ih h in ha aa ( x 1). Evn if ha aim i nf, mChin Ai iai hav x nn ha h mmiaavana f h Ai w ania a if Ria w niaa ha xian vi f f hi ain hh i EEZwa.50
I i iman n, hwv, ha Ai i hav h fa naah in a ii f ain, wih anin i manaaf.51 Innaina ain in h Ai ha f h m a
n miaa.52 Mia f miin in an i-f Ai ha
45 25: (note 12), p. 2 (authors translation).46 Li, S. et al., : [Opportunities and challenges: the trend of
global warming in t he Arctic],Kexue, vol. 61, no. 4 (25 July 2009), p. 47 (authors translat ion).47 Xie (note 28).48 See e.g. Zhao, Q., Arctic scramble strains relations amid increasing militarization, Xinhua,
30 Mar. 2009, .49 Xie (note 28).50 This concern was expressed in the authors o-the-record discussions with A rctic experts in
Beijing and Shanghai. Also, in ar ticles published in China, reference is made to a Russian regu lation
dating back to 1991 that Russia will charge high passage and ser vice fees for ships traversing the
Northern Sea Route. Zhang, J., : [The Arctic: age of expedition to
age of scramble],Jingji Cankao Bao, 10 Apr. 2009; and Liu, J. and Guan, Q.,
[Disputes arise in the Arctics golden route],Huanqiu, no. 22 (2008).51Ebinger and Zambetakis (note 26), p. 1228.
52 See e.g. Heininen, L., Remarks at the seminar Arctic resources policies in Russia, FinnishInstitute of International Aairs, Helsinki, 3 Mar. 2009, .
Chinese decision makers advocate
cautious Arctic policies or ear o
causing alarm
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c prepres or ce-ree rctc 13
mhaiz nia i an a am f h Ai ivi nai f am ni ain in h in, ia ani invvin Ria. Hwv, h i n vin ha Ria i nain h ha i w n wan n miaa in i ain vin.53
Whi h min f h Ai i a nin in ChinaRiaain, h nw nii ha wi ai a a f an i-f
Ai n ain amn Ea Aian a. A nn-Aia, China, Jaan, Nh Ka an Sh Ka a a in h am a.Eah f hm an n nm fm h mmia hi-in an i a nw hin n an h naa. A ni Ai a w in hi ma in. Fin-in wa in an i-f Ai ha h nia a a ninwinwin iain f h China an Jaan, h w Ea Aian wwhih in man h aa n i i n mmn n.
Fm China viwin, an i-f Ai wi ina h va f ni an a ain wih h Ni ni ha hwi ni h iin a w ha i i ahan. China aa ha h a fin ma inRavi, in aniiain f Ian min a ma hi-in h.54 B aiv iin fh na Chinia an aami n Ai ianin fm i-ma han an a ah mmia hiin an maiim ainNi nian aa a ain h fnain f a ia Ai-ina ainhi wih China. Nwa, wih i -a iinxi, ha an avana if i wan f a niq Ai ainhiwih China. Finin wa f Chin an Nwian mani -a in Ai n xainin, f xam, h nin in h Shman 55w f a in Chin manian w n nhn ChinaNwa ain.
Th nin ha China ha ih in h Ai an x a in ai Chin aami an in mmn Chin -ia ni i aa in iv a an a a f aai. 56Hwv, n innaina aw, China ih in h Ai a imi.Mv, China inin ha f a vin a iinini f innaina ain ma i i f China qinh Ai a vin ih. Th i m in in h amn Chin ia ain n h Ai a ni h in f man-in ha a a an ha h Ai.57 Th amn aa na China n-anin ini f f vin anh inna aai f h a. Ba n ia amn h Chi-n Gvnmn an h n- ia win Chin Aiha, China an x nin in, qi anniv, h f h Ai in ii in ai a.
53 Heininen (note 52).54 Wade, R., A warmer Arctic needs shipping rules,Financial Times, 16 Jan. 2008.55 Anker (note 37).
56 E.g. Li et a l. (note 46); and Xie (note 28).57 E.g. (note 39).
While the melting o the Arctic ice could
create tension, the new opportunities
that will arise as a result o an ice-ree
Arctic could deepen cooperation
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14 spr sgts o pece d securt y o. 2010/2
Abbreviations
CAA Chin Ai an Anai AminiainSOA Sa Oani AminiainUNCLOS Uni Nain Cnvnin n h Law f h SaEEZ Exiv nmi zn
OTHER SIPRI INSIGHTS ON PEACE AND SECURITY
Chinas engagement in nuclear arms control, disarmament and nonproliferation
SIPRI Insights on Peace and Security no. 2010/4
Bates Gill
Forthcoming, April 2010
Enduser certicates: improving standards to prevent diversion
SIPRI Insights on Peace and Security no. 2010/3
Mark Bromley and Hugh Griths
Forthcoming, March 2010
Demilitarizing mining areas in the Democratic Republic of the Congo: the case
of northern Katanga Province
SIPRI Insights on Peace and Security no. 2010/1
Ruben de Koning
SIPRI, January 2010
Prosecuting conictrelated sexual violence at the International Criminal Court
SIPRI Insights on Peace and Security no. 2009/1
Ashley DallmanSIPRI, May 2009
Stemming destabilizing arms transfers: the impact of European Union air safety
bans
SIPRI Insights on Peace and Security no. 2008/3
Hugh Griths and Mark Bromley
SIPRI, October 2008
Resourceconict links in Sierra Leone and the Democratic Republic of the
Congo
SIPRI Insights on Peace and Security no. 2008/2
Ruben de Koning
SIPRI, October 2008
The private military services industry
SIPRI Insights on Peace and Security no. 2008/1
Sam Perlo-Freeman and Elisabeth Skns
SIPRI, September 2008
OTHER RECENT SIPRI PUBLICATIONS
SIPRI Yearbook 2009: Armaments, Disarmament and International Security
Oxford University Press, 2009
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c prepres or ce-ree rctc 15
Recent trends in the arms trade
Arms transfers to Central, North and West Africa/the Americas/the Middle East/
Asia and Oceania/East and Southern Africa/Europe and Central Asia
SIPRI Background Papers
The SIPRI Arms Transfers Programme
SIPRI, April 2009February 2010
Chronology of armaments, disarmament and international security 2009
SIPRI Fact Sheet
Nenne Bodell
SIPRI, January 2010
North Koreas nuclear test explosion, 2009
SIPRI Fact Sheet
Vitaly Fedchenko
SIPRI, December 2009
SIPRI Map of Multilateral Peace Operation Deployments
SIPRI, September 2009The EU nonproliferation clause: a preliminary assessment
SIPRI Background Paper
Lina Grip
SIPRI, November 2009
Chinas Expanding Role in Peacekeeping: Prospects and Policy Implications
SIPRI Policy Paper no. 25
Bates Gill and Chin-hao Huang
SIPRI, November 2009
Building air trafc capacity in Africa: options for improving security and
governance
SIPRI Policy Brief
Hugh Griths
SIPRI, October 2009
Multilateral peace operations: Africa/Asia/Europe/personnel, 2008
SIPRI Fact Sheets
Kirsten Soder
SIPRI, July 2009
Handbook of Applied Biosecurity for Life Science Laboratories
Peter Clevestig
SIPRI, June 2009
Air Transport and Destabilizing Commodity FlowsSIPRI Policy Paper no. 24
Hugh Griths and Mark Bromley
SIPRI, May 2009
Enforcing European Union Law on Exports of DualUse Goods
SIPRI Research Report no. 24
Anna Wetter
Oxford University Press, 2009
These publications can all be ordered or downloaded from
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spr sgts o pece d secur ty o. 2010/2
CHINA PREPARES FORAN ICEFREE ARCTICld jkobso
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Linda Jakobson (Finland) is the Acting Programme Director and Beijing-based Senior
Researcher of the SIPRI China and Global Security Programme. She previously worked
for 10 years at the Finnish Institute of International Aairs (FIIA), most recently as
Director of its China Programme and Senior Researcher. She has lived and worked in
China for over 15 years and has published six books on Chinese politics, foreign policy
and East Asian society. Her current research focuses on Chinas foreign and security
policy as well as regional security issues in North East Asia.
Signalistgatan 9
SE-169 70 Solna, Sweden
Telephone: +46 8 655 97 00
Fax: +46 8 655 97 33
Email: [email protected]
Internet: www.sipri.org
SIPRI is an independent
international institute
dedicated to research intoconfict, armaments, arms
control and disarmament.
Established in 1966, SIPRI
provides data, analysis and
recommendations, based on
open sources, to policymakers,
researchers, media and the
interested public.
GOVERNING BOARD
Ambassador Rol Ekus,
Chairman (Sweden)
Dr Alexei G. Arbatov (Russia)
Ambassador Lakhdar Brahimi
(Algeria)
Jayantha Dhanapala
(Sri Lanka)
Dr Nabil Elaraby (Egypt)
Ambassador Wolgang
Ischinger (Germany)
Proessor Mary Kaldor
(United Kingdom)
The Director
DIRECTOR
Dr Bates Gill (United States)
SIPRI 2010
CONTENTS
I. Introduction 1 II. Chinas expanding polar research capabilities 3
III. Chinas commercial and strategic interests in the Arctic 5
IV. China and Arctic politics 9
V. Conclusions 12
Box 1. The international legal and political framework for the Arctic 10
Figure 1. Projected decrease of Arctic sea ice 2
Figure 2. A Chinese view of Arctic sea routes 4
Figure 3. A Chinese specialist panels SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, 6
opportunitiesand threats) assessment of use of Arctic sea routes
Abbreviations 14