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Chile’s Economic Growth
Joel CohenVidaur Durazo
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History of Economic Growth & Volatility
• 1986-2005– 4.8% GDP per capita Growth• Exceeds world average of 1.4%
– 3.1% Standard Deviation (Low Relative• 1810-2005– 1.7% GDP per capita Growth • With periods of negative growth
– 6.3% Standard Deviation
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History of Economic Growth & Volatility
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External Economic Shocks
1. WW12. Declining world demand of Chilean nitrate3. Great Depression
- Greatest GDP loss in the world (1930-1932)
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History of Economic Growth (Political Explanations)
• Post Great Depression– Import Substitution Strategy based on
government led industrialization strategy. – Strategy peaked in 1970-1973– After 1974 Military Coup, Market based policies,
deregulation– Structural reforms in 1970-80s lead to
macroeconomic stability.
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Chilean Economic Growth: International Comparison
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World Growth Determinants
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Regional & Sector Growth (1960-2005)
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Regional Income Convergence
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Sector Level TFP Dynamics
Sources of Growth at Economic Sector Level:
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World Growth
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Estimates for Sources of Chilean Growth
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Deep Growth Determinants
• Domestic Policies• Quality of Institutions• International Factors• Geography • Luck
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Cyclical Growth
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Questions & Concerns