Download - Chapter 2 Deteriorating Oil and Food Security Yen Ha & Jessica Hallenbeck CORE: Human Population
Chapter 2Deteriorating Oil and
Food Security
Yen Ha & Jessica Hallenbeck
CORE: Human Population
Part I
Crude Oil
The Demand For Oil
Our society has become an oil-based civilization
Cars, trains, planes Urbanization: cities, suburbs
There has been an annual increase of about 1% for the world’s demand for oil
2005-2006= 0.77% increase 2006-2007= 1% increase Third straight year that annual
growth is less than 2% The world currently consumes 85.7
million barrels/day in 2007 The leading country: United States 1972- 1 bushel of wheat= 1 barrel
of oil 2007- 8 bushel of wheat= 1 barrel
http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/ene_oil_con-energy-oil-consumption
Top 25 Countries of Oil Consumption
* http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/ene_oil_con-energy-oil-consumption
Annual Growth Rate of Oil United States
Unchanged within the past three years with an average of 20.7 million barrels/day
China 5.5% increased
from 2006-2007 Currently
consumes 7.7 million barrels/day
The huge increases in Asia and China over the last four decades are very clear.
http://wolf.readinglitho.co.uk/mainpages/consumption.html
Available Oil
Estimated 2 trillion barrels of oil are available in the world
However, 1 trillion has already been harvested Easy oil: close to shores, near the surface,
large reservoirs Tough oil: off shores, deep underground,
difficult to find Energy Information Administration of the U.S.
Department of Energy estimates that there still are 1.28 trillion barrels of oil reserves available in the world
Available Oil Cont… Cambridge Energy Research
Associates (CERA) have found in 2006 that there is an estimate of 3.74 trillion barrels of oil remaining in the world
• This could raise questions of new technologies, geopolitical conflicts, and economics to find these new frontiers
http://www.cera.com/aspx/cda/public1/news/pressReleases/pressReleaseDetails.aspx?CID=8444
Measuring the Decline of Oil
Computer Models Analysis of Reserves and Production
Relationship Separate the World’s Oil Production
Countries into 3 groups
Computer Models
Projects future oil production and prices based on the past
http://www.eia.doe.gov/steo
http://www.eia.doe.gov/steo
Reserves and Production Relationship
Look to see future production trends M. King Hubbert (US Geological Survey) predicted the
production peak based on the time between new discoveries Used the information that the US had new discoveries in
1930 Estimated that the US oil production would peak in 1970
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/mcrfpus1a.htm
Separating the World
Group 1: Falling productionUnited States, Venezuela, United
Kingdom, Norway Group 2: Rising production
Russia, Canada, Kazakhstan, Algeria, Angola, Brazil, Nigeria, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Libya
Group 3: Verge of a downfall in productionSaudi Arabia, Mexico, China
Separating the World cont.
• The predictions for many of the countries are true
•Countries that have already peaked (US, Venezuela, UK, Norway)
•BUT how about…
•Saudi Arabia, Mexico,China, Libya
• For the most part, categorizing these countries are inaccurate at the true representation of their oil production
http://www.worldoil.com/INFOCENTER/STATISTICS_DETAIL.ASP?STATFILE=_WORLDOILPRODUCTION
Problems With Discovering New Oil
95% of the oil in the world has already been discovered Due to the lack of exploration and new discoveries suggests that oil companies are
agreeing to this fact Husseini (former head of exploration at Aramco) claimed that it’s impossible
to discover enough new oil reserves to compensate for all the oil demand Need enough to cover the 2 million barrels/day increase of oil demand each year Also need enough new oil to cover for the declining 4 million barrels/day from old
oil reserves International Energy Agency (IEA) claims that the demands of 2007 (84.75
mbpd) cannot even reach the oil production of 2006 (85.01 mbpd) Currently, 2007 has produced 85.7 million barrels per day
18 of the top 20 oil reserves were discovered in the 1970’s None of the new oil reserves found within the past decade made the top 20
However, if the CERA is correct in its claims about the 3.7 trillion of oil that still remains means that we have NOT discovered most of the oil available on this earth
Plus, the annual increase of oil consumption has not increased 2 million barrels/day within the past 3 years
Hubbert’s Peak Utilizes a bell-shaped curve to predict the oil
production for the future Use the patterns seen from 1992-2006 to
predict for 2006-2020 1992: 67 million barrels/day 2006: 85 million barrels/day (18 mbpd increase) 2020: 67 million barrels/day
• Would require a 21% drop within this 14 years period
• Nevertheless, with an increase of 1% oil consumption annually, we would need to produce 106 million barrels/day to meet the needs of consumers
Critics of Hubbert’s Peak Jerome R. Corsi:
Argues that we are constantly finding new oil reserves so the idea of us completely running dry of oil by 2050 is impossible
In September of 2006, ExxonMobil claimed that oil in place estimates to about 6-8 trillion barrels per day and 3 trillion barrels per day in oil shale deposits
Others The peak of 2006 is lower than the oil production of
2008 Estimates of oil productions are expected to
increase within the next years
Actual Hubbert’s Peak•Hubbert’s Peak falls short of prediction
•2006 was not the peak of oil production since production in 2008 has surpassed it
•This shifts the prediction curve
http://www.theoildrum.com/files/PU200808_Fig3b_0.png
Actual Hubbert’s Peak Cont.
Furthermore, the United States is estimated to increase its production within the next two years according to Energy Information Administration
- This dramatic decrease in oil production after the peak of 2006 is yet to be seen
http://www.eia.doe.gov/steo
Other Options for Oil The remaining 5% of the oil is in the Artic
Which country controls which parts? Problems:
• Wars, environmental regulations, devastation to the ecological systems
Tar sands—products of oil shale Canada has an estimate 1.8 tbpd but only 300 bbpd can be
recovered Venezuela has 1.2 tbpd but only 400 bbpd can be recovered Problems:
• Extremely hazardous to the environment: heating, need lots of natural gas, carbon-intensive
• 2 tons of sand= 1 barrel of oil• Extremely costly: takes 2 barrels out of 3 barrels to pay for the
costs
Other Options Cont…
Oil Shale: conversion of kerogen, an organic material, into oil and gasColorado, Wyoming, UtahProblems:
• Requires several barrels of water= one barrel of oil
• Very costly, climate destruction, time
Problems with Declining Oil
High demand and low supply IEA estimates that by 2030,
we will need 120 million barrels/day to meet our consumer needs in the US
We do not change Industries still continues to
make cars, airplanes, food, ect. as if the oil will continue to last
http://www.marktaw.com/culture_and_media/politics/GlobalOilImages/productionandconsumption.gif
Problems Cont… Growth of modern cities
400 cities, 20 mega cities with more than 10 million people Requires lots of oil for transportation, operation of large buildings,
new technologies, ect. Garbage—needs to go longer distances as the cities grow larger
which requires more oil and higher costs Suburbs
People need to commute to work Highly dependent in the US where most people still transport
using cars rather than public transits Shopping malls, Wal-Marts, roads
Bottom line INC in oil prices= INC in cost of food= INC in everything else Without oil, we will no longer be able to travel far distances, get
fresh produces, and have our luxurious lifestyles
Reality of Oil Consumption
http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/world_oil_consumption
Part II
Food and Oil Since 1950
Cheap Oil Boosts Food Production
World grain harvest quadrupled last century.
1950-1972: 1 bushel of wheat =1 barrel of oil on the world market = $2
2007: 8 bushels of wheat = 1 barrel of oil
•When oil >$60, becomes cheaper to convert food crops to oil
"What is driving oil prices so high?", BBC (November 5, 2007).
World Grain Harvest
1950: 630 million tons Now: 2 billion tons Productivity (with little new land) tripled due
to: Tripling of Irrigation 10 times more fertilizer used High yield crops
• Hybrid corn in US• Dwarf wheat and rice in Asia
World farmland
According to satellite imagery, 15 million km2 of farmland in 2000.
New farmland has been created, but much farmland is lost to urbanization and overuse.
Food prices are going up to equal oil prices 2006: In US, 16%
food crops to oil
In 2008, 30% use projected by Lester Brown
2007: According to the USDA projections the share of ethanol in total corn use will rise from 14% in 2005/06 to 31% in 2016/17.
Image fromNew York Times Jan 19, 2008.
Grain Exporters/Importers
Image from Theoildrum.com
Food vs. Population
Grain 1984: 342
kilograms grain/person
2006: 302 kg/person
Why was there no worldwide famine?
Soybean 1984: 68 million
tons 2007: 222 million
tons
US Agriculture Energy:
19% farm energy to pump water.2/3 of agriculture energy used by
transportation.7% of agriculture energy used in
packaging –more energy for packaging than the food contains.
Refrigeration
Refrigeration uses the most energy in the food industry.
Energy Star models use 50% less energy than those made before 1993.
Up to 4kWh per day.
QuickTime™ and aTIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Image from wikipedia.com
The US has become more energy efficient
Year Gallons of Fuel Gallons of Fuel per Ton of Grain
1973 7.7 billion 33
2005 4.2 billion 12