![Page 1: CHAPTER 10 Case Example: Chermack’s Scenario Planning Theory](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062408/56813bbc550346895da4eb09/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
CHAPTER 10
Case Example:Chermack’s Scenario
Planning Theory
![Page 2: CHAPTER 10 Case Example: Chermack’s Scenario Planning Theory](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062408/56813bbc550346895da4eb09/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Chapter 9 – Chermack’s Scenario Planning Theory
Chapter Outline• The Conceptualization Phase Applied• The Operationalize Phase Applied• The Confirm Phase Applied• The Apply Phase Applied• The Refine Phase Applied
![Page 3: CHAPTER 10 Case Example: Chermack’s Scenario Planning Theory](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062408/56813bbc550346895da4eb09/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
The Conceptualize Phase
![Page 4: CHAPTER 10 Case Example: Chermack’s Scenario Planning Theory](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062408/56813bbc550346895da4eb09/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
The Operationalize Phase
Proposition 1: If scenarios are positively associated with learning, then learning will increase as a result of participation in scenario planning.Proposition 2: If learning is positively associated with the alteration of mental models, then mental models change as a result of learning.Proposition 3: If a change in mental models alters decision-structure, then a change in mental model implies a change in the approach to decision making.Proposition 4: If changes in decision making are positively associated with firm performance, then firm performance will improve as a result of altered decision-making strategies.Proposition 5: If scenarios are positively associated with dialogue, conversation quality and engagement, then dialogue, conversation quality, and engagement will increase as a result of participation in scenario planning.
![Page 5: CHAPTER 10 Case Example: Chermack’s Scenario Planning Theory](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062408/56813bbc550346895da4eb09/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
The Apply Phase
![Page 6: CHAPTER 10 Case Example: Chermack’s Scenario Planning Theory](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062408/56813bbc550346895da4eb09/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
The Apply Phase
Application taking place through:Chermack Scenarios [www.thomaschermack.com]
AndThe Scenario Planning Institute [www.scenarioplanning.colostate.edu
![Page 7: CHAPTER 10 Case Example: Chermack’s Scenario Planning Theory](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062408/56813bbc550346895da4eb09/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
The Refine Phase
The refine phase is underway. The theory is relatively new, and confirmation, application and refine activities are all taking place currently.
![Page 8: CHAPTER 10 Case Example: Chermack’s Scenario Planning Theory](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062408/56813bbc550346895da4eb09/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Conclusion
Chermack’s theory of scenario planning is a good example because it was developed with the phases of theory building in mind. As it is a relatively new example, it does not yet have the track record in the confirm, apply, and refine phases, but shows promise in the work currently being done.