Download - CES and LAUS: Advanced
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CES and LAUS: AdvancedCES and LAUS: Advanced
Current Employment Statistics
Local Area Unemployment Statistics
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CES: CHANGES & DATA
• CODE STRUCTURE, SIC TO NAICS
• DATA REVISIONS
• MSA DEFINITIONS
• SAMPLE AND ESTIMATION METHODS
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CES DATA
• INDUSTRY CODE CHANGES ARE SMOOTHED
• CES IS A TRUE TIME SERIES
• THERE HAS BEEN A HISTORICAL RECONSTRUCTION OF NAICS DATA BACK TO 1990
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CES DATA: REVISIONS
• CES DATA IS REVISED MONTHLY (ONCE) AND ANNUALY (TWICE)
• THE MONTHLY REVISION, BASED ON A MORE COMPLETE SAMPLE COLLECTION, IS PUBLISHED WITH THE FOLLOWING MONTHS DATA RELEASE
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CES DATA: REVISIONS
• IN THE ANNUAL BENCHMARK PROCESS THE PREVIOUS YEARS DATA IS REPLACED BY ADJUSTED QCEW (TAX RECORD) DATA THROUGH THE BENCHMARK MONTH AND THE BALANCE OF THE YEAR IS
RE-ESTIMATED
• AT THE SAME TIME, THE DATA FOR THE SECOND YEAR PREVIOUS IS COMPLETELY REPLACED BY ADJUSTED QCEW DATA
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MSA CHANGES: COLORADO SPRINGS
Present Additions
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MSA CHANGES: DENVER
PRESENT ADDITIONS
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CES: SAMPLING
• THE BASIC SAMPLE UNIT IS THE UEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE (UI) ACCOUNT
• MULTIPLE WORKPLACE ENITIES ARE INCLUDED IN THE UI ACCOUNT
• THERE ARE ADJUSTMENTS FOR BIRTH/DEATH
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CES: SAMPLING
• CES HAS CHANGED SAMPLING AND ESTIMATION METHODS.
• OLD METHOD: QUOTA NON-RESPONSE PROBLEMS WERE ADDRESSED BY FREE
SUBSTITUTION, INTRODUCING BIAS.
BIRTH/DEATH ADJUSTMENT WAS MULTIPLICTIVE.
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CES: SAMPLING
• NEW METHOD: PROBABILITYRANDOM SAMPLE SELECTION.
WEIGHTED ESTIMATORS CAN BE USED.
CONFIDENCE INTERVALS CAN BE ESTABLISHED.
IMPROVED MONITORING OF ACTUAL ECONOMIC CONDITIONS.
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CES: MODEL
• OLD METHOD: CURRENT LINK RELATIVE L = aec/aepWhere: aec = all employment for current
month's current matched sample aep = total ae for previous month's current
matched sample.
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CES: MODEL EXAMPLE
• A SAMPLE OF 3 MEMBERS WITH DIFFERENT EMPLOYMENT SIZES:COMPANY ‘x’ HAS 10 WORKERS THIS MONTH,
LAST MONTH 9. THERE ARE 10 COMPANIES THIS SIZE IN THE STATE
COMPANY ‘y’ HAS 100 NOW, 99 LAST MONTH. THERE ARE 5 THIS SIZE
COMPANY ‘z’ HAS 500 BOTH MONTHS. IT’S THE ONLY COMPANY THIS SIZE
THERE ARE 10,000 EMPLOYEES IN THE INDUSTRY STATEWIDE
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CES: MODEL EXAMPLE OLD
• THE CURRENT LINK WOULD BE:L = ( x + y + z )now/(x + y + z)last
L = (10 + 100 + 500) / (9 + 99 + 500)
L = 1.0033
LINK IS STABLIZED BY COMPANY z, THE ONLY COMPANY ITS SIZE
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CES: MODEL
• OLD MODEL - APPLY LINK TO GET THE EMPLOYMENT ESTIMATE:
• AEc = (L)(Fc) (AEp)Where: AEc = AE estimate for current month AEp = AE estimate for previous month L = current link relative
Fc = bias adjustment factor for current month
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CES: MODEL EXAMPLE OLD
• LET THE AEp = 10,000• LET THE ADJUSTMENT FOR BIAS, Fc = 1.001• THE ESTIMATE WOULD BE:
AEc = (L)(Fc)(AEp)AEc = (1.0033)(1.001)(10,000)AEc = 1043THE BIAS ADJUSTMENT INTERACTS WITH THE
LINK
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CES: MODEL
• NEW MODEL; WEIGHTED LINK RELATIVE AEc = AEp ((Σ(w * aec )/(Σ(w*aep)) + (BIRTH/DEATH
FACTOR)WHERE w IS THE WEIGHT OF A INDIVIDUAL
SAMPLE MEMBER aec IS THAT MEMBER’S CURRENT EMPLOYMENT
aep IS THE PREVIOUS MONTHS EMPLOYMENT
THE B/D FACTOR IS A SEPARATE BLS ESTIMATE
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CES: MODEL EXAMPLE NEW
• USING THE SAME COMPANIES, AND A B/D FACTOR OF 10THE WEIGHTS ARE DETERMINED BY THE
NUMBER OF COMPANIES OF A GIVEN SIZE IN THE INDUSTRY BEING SAMPLED
COMPANY x HAS WEIGHT, w = 10COMPANY y HAS w = 5COMPANY z HAS w = 1
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CES: MODEL EXAMPLE NEW
• USING THE SAME DATA AS IN THE OLD EXAMPLE THE NEW ESTIMATE IS:AEc = AEp ((Σ(w * aec )/(Σ(w*aep)) + (BIRTH/DEATH
FACTOR)AEc = 10,000 (((10 * 10) + (5 * 100) + (1 * 500))/((10 *
9) + (5 * 99) + (1 * 500))) + 10AEc = 10,000 * 1.0138 + 10AEc = 10138 + 10 = 10148
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CES: MODEL EXAMPLE NEW vs OLD
• THE OLD ESTIMATE WAS 10,043• THE NEW MODEL ESTIMATE IS 10,148• THE DIFFERENCE IS THE IMPACT OF
SMALLER BUSINESS ON THE LINK• IF THE ESTIMATING CELL HAS LARGER
EMPLOYMENT OR A GREATER LINK, THE OLD BIAS ADJUSTMENT FACTOR HAS A LARGER IMPACT
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CES: MODEL
• WHY THE CHANGES? THE NEW SAMPLE IS MORE REPRESENATIVE
AND RESPONSIVE
THE WEIGHTED SAMPLE GIVES MORE MODEL IMPACT TO SMALL BUSINESS
THE BIRTH/DEATH ADJUSTMENT IS ADDITIVE SO ITS NOT SCALED TO MONTHLY RESULT
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CES DATA LIMITATIONS
• Limited by area• Limited by industry detail• The results are designed to track direction as the
primary item of interest• The absolute measure of level is the secondary
item of interest, but this is addressed by Benchmarking the data
• No demographic data is published