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MATTHIASFINKENRATH, JULIANSMITH ANDDENNISVOLK
INFORMATION PAPER
CCS RETROFIT
Analysis of the Globally Installed
Coal-Fired Power Plant Fleet
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MATTHIASFINKENRATH, JULIANSMITH ANDDENNISVOLK
CCS RETROFIT
Analysis of the Globally Installed
Coal-Fired Power Plant Fleet
This paper is published under the authority of the Sustainable Energy Policy and Technology Directorate
and may not reflect the views of individual International Energy Agency (IE A) member or non-member countries.
Data and information is provided for informational purposes only, and the IEA is not liable for any errors in their content.For further information, please contact Dennis Volk at: [email protected]
2012
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
The International Energy Agency (IEA), an autonomous agency, was established in November 1974.Its primary mandate was and is two-fold: to promote energy security amongst its membercountries through collective response to physical disruptions in oil supply, and provide authoritative
research and analysis on ways to ensure reliable, affordable and clean energy for its 28 membercountries and beyond. The IEA carries out a comprehensive programme of energy co-operation amongits member countries, each of which is obliged to hold oil stocks equivalent to 90 days of its net imports.The Agencys aims include the following objectives:
n Secure member countries access to reliable and ample supplies of all forms of energy; in particular,through maintaining effective emergency response capabilities in case of oil supply disruptions.
n Promote sustainable energy policies that spur economic growth and environmental protectionin a global context particularly in terms of reducing greenhouse-gas emissions that contributeto climate change.
n Improve transparency of international markets through collection and analysis ofenergy data.
n Support global collaboration on energy technology to secure future energy supplies
and mitigate their environmental impact, including through improved energyefficiency and development and deployment of low-carbon technologies.
n Find solutions to global energy challenges through engagement anddialogue with non-member countries, industry, international
organisations and other stakeholders.IEA member countries:
Australia
Austria
Belgium
Canada
Czech Republic
Denmark
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Ireland
Italy
Japan
Korea (Republic of)
Luxembourg
NetherlandsNew Zealand
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Slovak Republic
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Turkey
United Kingdom
United States
The European Commission
also participates in
the work of the IEA.
Please note that this publication
is subject to specific restrictions
that limit its use and distribution.
The terms and conditions are available
online at www.iea.org/about/copyright.asp
OECD/IEA, 2012
International Energy Agency9 rue de la Fdration
75739 Paris Cedex 15, France
www.iea.org
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Tableofcontents
Acknowledgements..........................................................................................................................6
Backgroundandmotivation.............................................................................................................7
Scopeofthisstudy............................................................................................................................8
Retrofitassessmentcriteria.............................................................................................................9
DefinitionofthepotentialforCCSretrofitting..........................................................................9
Keyfindingsfromliterature.....................................................................................................10
Informationavailablefromglobaldatabases..........................................................................11
Limitationsanduncertainties........................................................................................................11
Analysisofthegloballyinstalledfleet...........................................................................................14
Globalprofileoftheinstalledcoalfiredpowerplantfleet.....................................................14
CountrieswiththelargestCO2emissionsfromcoalfiredpowergeneration........................15
Caseanalyses..................................................................................................................................17
Impactofminimumpowerplantsizeandageonplantpopulation.......................................18
Case1(units100MW)resultsonagloballevel..............................18
Case2(units300MW)resultsonagloballevel..............................19
Case3(units300MW)resultsonagloballevel..............................20
AnalysisformajorCO2emittingcountries.....................................................................................21
China........................................................................................................................................21
Generalobservationsfromthecaseanalysis..................................................................21
Keycountryspecificconclusions.....................................................................................22
UnitedStatesofAmerica.........................................................................................................22
Generalobservationsfromthecaseanalysis..................................................................23
Keycountryspecificconclusions.....................................................................................23
India.........................................................................................................................................23
Generalobservationsfromthecaseanalysis..................................................................23
Keycountryspecificconclusions.....................................................................................24
Germany..................................................................................................................................25
Generalobservationsfromthecaseanalysis..................................................................25
Keycountryspecificconclusions.....................................................................................26
Russia.......................................................................................................................................26
Generalobservationsfromthecaseanalysis..................................................................26
Keycountryspecificconclusions.....................................................................................27
Japan........................................................................................................................................27
Generalobservationsfromthecaseanalysis..................................................................27
Keycountryspecificconclusions.....................................................................................28
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SouthAfrica.............................................................................................................................28
Generalobservationsfromthecaseanalysis..................................................................29
Keycountryspecificconclusions.....................................................................................29
Australia...................................................................................................................................30
Generalobservationsfromthecaseanalysis..................................................................30
Keycountryspecificconclusions.....................................................................................31
RepublicofKorea.....................................................................................................................31
Generalobservationsfromthecaseanalysis..................................................................31
Keycountryspecificconclusions.....................................................................................32
Poland......................................................................................................................................32
Generalobservationsfromthecaseanalysis..................................................................32
Keycountryspecificconclusions.....................................................................................33
Summary..................................................................................................................................33
Analysisof
expected
new
installations..........................................................................................35
Summaryandconclusions..............................................................................................................37
Observationsfromanalysingthegloballyinstalledfleet........................................................37
Perspectivesonnewinstallationsinthecomingdecades......................................................38
Findingsfromthecountrylevelanalysis.................................................................................39
Keyconclusions.......................................................................................................................39
Acronyms,abbreviationsandunitsofmeasure............................................................................41
References......................................................................................................................................42
ListofFigures
Figure1 Definitionsofretrofitpotential.......................................................................................9
Figure2 WEPPandeGRIDdataoftheinstalledcoalfiredpowerplantfleet
intheUnitedStates.......................................................................................................12
Figure3 WEPPandBNetzAdataoftheinstalledcoalfiredpowerplantfleetinGermany.......13
Figure4 Totalcoalfiredpowerplantcapacityglobally,brokendownbyageand
generationcapacity.......................................................................................................14
Figure5 Totalcoalfiredpowerplantcapacityglobally,brokendownbyageand
performancelevel.........................................................................................................15
Figure6 BreakdownofglobalCO2emissionsfromcoal/peatthroughthe
productionofelectricity,heat,andpowergenerationcapacity..................................16
Figure7 Installedtotalcoalfiredpowerplantcapacityinallcountriesandbreakdown
byageandcapacity.......................................................................................................18
Figure8 Breakdownofyoung(100MW)coalfiredpowerplants.........18
Figure9 Installedtotalcoalfiredpowerplantcapacityinallcountriesandbreakdown
byageandcapacity.......................................................................................................19
Figure10 Breakdownofyoung(300MW)coalfiredpowerplants.........19
Figure11 Installedtotalcoalfiredpowerplantcapacityinallcountriesandbreakdown
byageandcapacity.......................................................................................................20
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Figure12 Furtherbreakdownofyoung(300MW)
coalfiredpowerplants.................................................................................................20
Figure13 China:Profileofoperatingfleetofcoalfiredpowerplants.........................................21
Figure14 UnitedStatesofAmerica:Profileofoperatingfleetofcoalfiredpowerplants..........22
Figure15 India:Profileofoperatingfleetofcoalfiredpowerplants..........................................24
Figure16 Germany:Profileofoperatingfleetofcoalfiredpowerplants....................................25
Figure17 Russia:Profileofoperatingfleetofcoalfiredpowerplants........................................26
Figure18 Japan:Profileofoperatingfleetofcoalfiredpowerplants.........................................28
Figure19 SouthAfrica:Profileofoperatingfleetofcoalfiredpowerplants...............................29
Figure20 Australia:Profileofoperatingfleetofcoalfiredpowerplants....................................30
Figure21 Korea:Profileofoperatingfleetofcoalfiredpowerplants.........................................31
Figure22 Poland:Profileofoperatingfleetofcoalfiredpowerplants.......................................33
Figure23 New(gross)installationsofcoalfiredpowerplantsaccordingtothe
WEO2011NewPoliciesScenario(GW)........................................................................35
List
of
Tables
Table1 Steamconditionsofpulverizedcoalfiredpowerplanttechnologies..........................11
Table2 Countriesthataccountformorethan85%ofglobalCO2emissions
fromcoal/peatthroughtheproductionofelectricityandheat...................................16
Table3 Overviewoncaseresults...............................................................................................34
Table4 RegionalfocusofthisanalysisversusregionalbreakdowninWEO2011....................35
Table5 New(gross)installationsofcoalfiredpowerplantsaccordingtothe
WEO2011NewPoliciesScenario(GW)........................................................................36
Table6 Totalretirementsofcoalfiredpowerplantsaccordingtothe
WEO2011NewPoliciesScenario(GW)........................................................................36
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Acknowledgements
The authors of thisdocumentwould like to thankall the contributorsand reviewers for their
inputandcomments.
Significantcontributions,valuablecommentsand feedbackwere received fromwithin the IEA,
including Keith Burnard, Osamu Ito, Dafydd Elis, Marco Baroni and Sean McCoy and from the
panelofexternalreviewers.Inthatregard,weofferspecialthankstoChristopherShortfromthe
GlobalCCSInstitute,ColinHendersonfromInternationalEnergyAgencys(IEA)CleanCoalCentre,
John Davison from the International Energy Greenhouse Gas (IEAGHG) Programme and Ping
ZhongfromAdministrativeCentreforChinasAgenda21(ACCA21).
We would also like to thank Bo Diczfalusy, Director of the Sustainable Energy Policy and
Technology Directorate, Juho Lipponen, Head of the Carbon Capture and Storage Technology
Unitat the IEA,andLszloVarr,Headof theGas,CoalandPowerMarketsDivision, for their
valuableadviceandsupport.
Cheryl Haines, Muriel Custodio and Angela Gosmann at the IEAs Communication andInformationOfficeprovidedessentialsupportintermsofediting,productionandpublication.
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Backgroundandmotivation
Withmorethan1600GWofinstalledgenerationcapacityin2010accordingtoIEAanalysesthe
globalcoalfiredpowerplantfleetaccountsformorethan8.5Gigatonnes(Gt)ofcarbondioxide
(CO2)emissionseachyear.ThisrepresentsroughlyonequarteroftheworldsanthropogenicCO2emissions. Despite everpresent climate change concerns, coalfired power generation is
expanding faster than ever: over the last five years, capacity additions experienced record
growthofmorethan350GW.
Further, energy scenarios by the International Energy Agency (IEA) expect an additional
1000GWby2035.Withoutfurtheractiontomitigatetheeffectsofgrowingunabatedcoalfired
power generation capacity, this represents a massive threat to the global climate. IEA
assessments suggest that CCS deployed to the global coalfired power plant fleet might
contribute to 10% of worldwide energyrelated CO2 emission reductions required to stabilise
globalwarmingby2050(IEA,2010a).InordertoachievedeepcutsinworldwideCO2emissions,
lowestcost scenarios suggest that nearly all newbuild fossilfuel power plants need to be
equippedwithCCSinthecomingdecades.
Inaddition,CCSequipmentwouldneedtobeaddedtothealreadyinstalledglobalfleetoffossil
fuelpowerplants.Thisapproach,knownasCCSretrofitting,isexpectedtoplayanimportantrole
inaddressingtheproblemofCO2emissionsfromfossilfuelpowerplantsthathavebeenalready
lockedin.TheimportanceforCCSretrofittingisfurtherexacerbatedbythesignificantlifetime
ofexistingpowerplantsandthevery largenumberofplants likelytobebuiltoverthecoming
decadeswithoutCO2emissionsabatement.
Modelling resultsprovideestimatesof the requiredoveralldeploymentofCCS retrofittocoal
firedpowerplants.Inordertomeetambitiousemissionreductionlevelsat lowestcost,theIEA
Energy
Technology
Perspectives
2010 (ETP2010)analysissuggeststhatCCSretrofitwillplayan
increasingly significant role until 2030. New fossilfuel power plants built in the next ten totwentyyearsshould,hence,bedesignedinamannerthatwouldallowforCCSretrofitting.Until
2050,ETP2010projectsthat114GWofcoalfiredcapacitywouldneedtoberetrofittedwithCCS
globally,inordertoachievestabilisationofglobalwarmingatsustainablelevelsatlowestcosts.
Thisisasignificantsharerelativetothe550GWofnewcoalfiredpowerplantsand298GWof
newgasfiredcapacitywithCCStobeinstalledgloballyoverthesameperiod(until2050)inthe
same scenario. While nearly the entire global coalfired power plant fleet will need to be
equippedwithCCSfromthebeginning,16%ofthetotalcoalcapacityoperatingwithCCSby2050
willneedtoberetrofittedpowerplants.
Retrofitting CCS, is, however, a complex task that requires consideration of many sitespecific
aspects. An exactanalysisof thepotential to retrofit CCS to theglobal coalfiredpower plant
fleet, including all of the many parameters critical towards an assessment of the technical,
economicandsocialviabilitytoretrofitCCS,isnotpossibleduetolackofavailabledataandthe
diversityofmarketcircumstances. Informationfromglobaldatabases, IEAstatisticsandthe IEA
World
Energy
Outlook
2011 (WEO 2011), however, provides an indication of the present and
futuresize,ageandperformanceprofile,aswellastheregionaldistributionoftheglobalcoal
firedpowerplantfleet.Thisstudypresentsdatafromthetencountrieswhichtogetheraccount
formorethan85%oftheworldsCO2emissionsfromcoalfiredpowergenerationanddiscusses
thepercentageofthatpopulationofplantsthatcouldbeparticularlyattractive forconsidering
CCS retrofit. This study does not assess the potentiallimiting technical, economic and other
constraintstoarriveattherealisticretrofitpotential.
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Scopeofthisstudy
Alargenumberofcoalfiredpowerplantsarecurrentlyinoperationworldwide.Nocompleteset
of technical information of individual units of this globally installed fleet exists. However,
availabledatabasescoverthebulkoftheseplants inarelativelycomprehensivemanner.Thesedatabasestypicallyincludekeyinformationrelatedtothesize,age,andperformancelevelofthe
vastmajorityofthegloballyinstalledcoalfiredpowerplants.
Thefollowinganalysis isbasedon IEAstatistical information incombinationwithdatafromthe
UDIWorldElectricPowerPlantsDataBase (Platts,2011), referred tohenceforthas theWEPP
database.Data fromthe IEAareused inthisstudy forvalidationofWEPPresults. IEAdataare
typicallybasedondirectsubmissionsbyIEAmemberandnonmembercountries,aswellasthe
agencysownanalysis.Submitteddataareoftenaggregatedonacountrywidelevel.
Thisstudy illustratesthesizeandregionaldistributionoftheglobally installedcoalfiredpower
plantfleetthatispotentiallyrelevantforCCSretrofitting.Thestudydrawsuponexistingresearch
on
CCS
retrofitting:
several
studies
have
estimated
the
effective
potential
for
retrofitting
on
a
regionallevel,oftenbasedongenericassumptions.Whilesignificantprogresshasbeenmadeon
understanding the importance of different aspects relevant for assessing CCS retrofitting, the
realisticglobalpotential is stillunclear.Nodetailedeconomicanalysis isperformedunder this
study. Instead,a rangeof selected criteria forcoalfiredpowerplants isextracted fromglobal
databases and combined with fundamental economic considerations in order to provide a
realisticestimateofthepotentialforretrofittingplantswithCCS.Morespecifically,thefollowing
analysis illustratestheglobalandregionaldistributionbrokendowntoagenerationunitlevel
(orpowerplantblocksize)ofpowergenerationcapacities,performancelevels,andplantage.
Thesecriteriarepresentonlyafractionofvarioustechnicalandnontechnicalparameterstobe
taken intoaccount forassessing the realisticglobalpotential for retrofittingCCS.Forexample,
theanalysiscoversneitheradetailedassessmentofthecurrentinterestorpaceofdevelopmentofaspecificregionindeployingCCS,northeavailabilityandeconomicviabilityofrequiredlocal
CO2transportationandstorage.Thestudy isthusnotdesignedtoprovideanaccurateestimate
oftheactual,realisticglobalpotentialforretrofittingCCSonacommercialbasis.
However, the study does shed further light on several key aspects that are important for
consideringthefundamentalabilitytoretrofitCCS,suchas:
Relativetothegloballyinstalledfleetofcoalpowergenerationtoday,howbigistheshareof
comparativelyyoungpowerplantsthatmightbeparticularlyattractiveforCCSretrofit,andin
whichcountriesaretheylocated?
Similarly,howprevalentistheshareofcomparativelyefficientorverylargeplantsandwhatis
theirregionaldistribution?
BasedondatafromtheIEAWEO2011publication,inwhichregionsarenewcoalfiredpower
plantslikelybelocatedinthecomingdecades,andhowsignificantwilltheirpowergeneration
capacitybe,relativetotheexistingfleet?
Thisreportanalysesingreaterdetailthosetencountriesthattogetherrepresentmorethan85%
oftheworldsCO2emissionsfromtheproductionofelectricityandheatusingcoalandpeat.
Toalsoincludelikelyfuturedevelopments,dataforthepresentinstalledfleetarecomplemented
byresultsforcoalpowerplantdeployment(IEA,2011)thatareexpectedforthecomingdecades.
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Retrofitassessmentcriteria
Inthischapterdifferentdefinitionsoftheterm CCSretrofitpotentialareclarified. Inaddition,
key findings from previous studies are summarised and compared with the set of available
informationfromdatabasesontheinstalledglobalcoalfiredpowerplantfleet.Itisnecessarytostress that the resultsof this study showa fairlyvast retrofitpotential, since theassessments
methodologyuseddoesnotincludeallrelevantfactorstoarriveattheregionspecificpotential.
Thisstudy,therefore,doesnotassess thepotentiallimiting influenceofotheraspects,suchas
spaceforequipment,storageavailability,powermarketsdesignorpublicacceptance,whichare
allabsolutelynecessaryaspectstoconsiderforrealisticretrofitpotential(seeFigure1below).
DefinitionofthepotentialforCCSretrofitting
Manyparametersarecriticalforanassessmentofthetechnical,economicandsocialviabilityto
retrofitCCS.WhilethetheoreticalpotentialofCCSretrofitincludesthetotalglobalfleetoffossil
powergeneration, the technical,costeffectiveand realisticpotential to successfullyapplyCCS
retrofits will be significantly lower, as illustrated in Figure 1. The focus of this study is on
specifying the theoretical potential for CCS retrofit, and providing an approximation of the
magnitude of upper limit estimates for the technical and costeffective potential. Due to the
complexityoftheassessmentandlackofsitespecificdataonagloballevel,assessingtheactual
realisticpotentialforCCSretrofitisbeyondthescopeofthestudy.
Figure1Definitionsofretrofitpotential
Evenonaplantlevel,itisahighlycomplextasktoassessthetechnicalandeconomicalviabilityas
wellasthesocialacceptabilityofaspecificretrofitproject.Henceanyattempttoextrapolatea
sitespecific analysis to the globally installed power plant fleet in order to quantify a realistic
potentialforretrofittingCCStopowerplantsgloballyorevenwithinawiderregionisnotfeasible.
Alloperating
powerplants
CO2storage and
transportavailability
Spaceforequipment
Accesstoutilities
Fluegaspollutants
treatment
requirements
Size
of
unitAgeofunit
Performanceofunit
Publicacceptance
Powermarket
conditionsand
competitivenessRegulatory
framework
Theoretical Technical&
CosteffectiveRealistic
P
otentialforCCS
Retrofit Consideringsite
specifictechnical
&economical
constraints
Considering
additional
constraints
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Keyfindingsfromliterature
ManypublicationshaveanalysedCCSretrofittingofcoalfiredpowerplants,suchastherecent
comprehensivestudybytheIEAGreenhouseGasImplementingAgreement(IEAGHG,2011).This
study provides very useful technical background information and an overview of the related
relevantliteraturethatwaspublishedoverthelastyears.
Globalenergy scenarios suggest thatCCS retrofit isanecessity fordeepCO2emission cuts, in
addition to constructing new power plants with CCS. Most studies, however, agree with
conclusions fromanearlierassessmentby the InternationalPanelonClimateChange (IPCC) in
2005thatstates:RetrofittingexistingplantswithCO2captureisexpectedtoleadtohighercosts
andsignificantlyreducedoverallefficienciesthanfornewlybuiltpowerplantswithcapture.The
costdisadvantagesofretrofittingmaybereducedinthecaseofsomerelativelynewandhighly
efficientexistingplantsorwhereaplant issubstantiallyupgradedor rebuilt (IPCC,2005).The
samereport listssomeadditionaldisadvantagesofCCSretrofits,dependingon the typeof the
existingpowerplant,suchas:
Potential sitespecific constraints, such as lack of availability of land for the capture
equipment;
Incomparisontonewbuildpowerplants,reducedremainingplantlifeofthepowerplant, if
not upgraded or retrofitted. A long plant life would be beneficial forjustifying the large
expenseofinstallingcaptureequipment;
Tendencytohave lowefficienciesand,consequently,aproportionallygreater impactonthe
netoutputthaninhighefficiencyplants.
Inordertominimisesitespecificconstraints,ithasbeenproposedthatnewplantsbebuiltCCS
ready to reduce these and other disadvantages apparent when CCS retrofitting an already
operationalplant.ThisconceptisanimportantoptionfornotfurtherlockinginCO2emissions
frompowerplantsthatwillbebuilt inthenearfuture.Intermsofthecurrentglobalcoalfiredpowerfleet,thenumberofplantsthathavebeenalreadydesignedCCSreadyis,however,verylow.
Another relatively recent publication underlined the advantages of preferring modern power
plants for retrofitting CCS. Summary notes of a workshop on retrofitting CCS held at the
MassachusettsInstituteofTechnology(MIT)in2009concludethat:relativelylarge(300MWeor
greater), high efficiency coal plants with installed FGD [flue gas desulphurization] and SCR
[selective catalytic reduction] capability are the best candidates for CCS retrofit. By contrast,
retrofit is not attractive for old, lower efficiency, smaller, subcritical units. Rebuilding or
repowering isanoptiondependingon significantCO2pricesbeing inplace. (MIT,2009).Asa
generalfindingfromtheworkshop,costeffectiveretrofitsforcarboncapturearemostsuitable
fornewer, largerplants.NthplantCO2avoidancecostsforsupercriticalplantsaresignificantly
lower than those for subcritical plants. Analysis by EPRI that was presented at the same
workshopconcludesthatcosteffectiveretrofitsforcarboncapturearemostsuitableforboilers
thatare300MWorlargerandlessthanabout35yearsold.
ThedetailedstudybyIEAGHGfrom2011ingeneralsupportsthestatementthatCCSretrofitsto
plantswithlowerefficiencieswilltendtohavehighergenerationcostsandsoaregenerallyless
likely to be competitive with new build CCS replacements (IEAGHG, 2011). Costs of CCS per
tonne of CO2 captured are found likely somewhat higher for retrofitted plants. However, the
study emphasizes the strong effect of other sitespecific factors on retrofit generation costs
makesadefiniteminimumefficiencythresholdforretrofittinginappropriate.Thestudyactually
identifiesarangeofconditionsunderwhichcostsofelectricitymayeven lookmorefavourable
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forpowerplants with retrofittedCCS, compared to newbuild power plants withCCS. For the
specific set of parameter assumptions chosen in this study, the threshold lower heatingvalue
(LHV)efficiencybelowwhichretrofitoncoalplantswouldbecomeunattractivewasfoundtobe
intheregionof35%(about33%efficiencyintermsofhigherheatingvalue(HHV)).
Another detailed study on the potential of CCS retrofitting the currently operating coalfiredpower plant fleet in the United States was performed by the US National Energy Technology
Laboratory (NETL,2011).ParametersusedbyNETL forscreeningandsinglingoutpowerplants
thatarenotamenabletoCO2captureretrofitincludedthosethat:
arenotcurrentlyoperating;
haveacapacitylessthan100MW;
havea2008reportedheatrategreaterthan12500Btu/kWh (HHV)orabout29%efficiency
(LHV);
donothaveadefinedCO2repositorywithin25miles(40kilometres).
Informationavailable
from
global
databases
Basedonthefindingsfrom literaturethataresummarisedabove,thisstudyusesdatafromthe
WEPPdatabaseorganisedinawaythatillustratestheprofileofthegloballyinstalledcoalpower
fleetindifferentrelevantdimensions.Thesedimensionsincludeabreakdownintermsof:
Size,whichisthenameplatepowergenerationcapacityinMW:
upto100MWnetelectricpoweroutput,
between100and500MWnetelectricpoweroutput,brokendowninstepsof100,
above500MWnetelectricpoweroutput;
Age,whichistheyearoffirstoperation,groupingtheresultsinto5yearintervals; Performance level, differentiating between sub, super or ultrasupercritical steam
parameters.
Very limited detailed information is available in databases with a global coverage on the
performance characteristics of individual units. Steam parameters or plant power generation
efficiencydataare typicallyonlyprovided fora small fractionofplants.Asa rough indication,
Table 1 correlates general performance levels of coalfired power plants that are provided in
globalpowerplantdatabaseswithtypicalsteamparametersandpowergenerationefficiencies.It
shouldbenoted,though,thatcorrespondingsitespecificefficiency levelsmayvarysignificantly
dependingonlocalfactorssuchasambientconditions,maintenanceoroperatingregimes.
Table1Steamconditionsofpulverizedcoalfiredpowerplanttechnologies
Type of coal-fired power plant Temperature (C) Pressure (bar)Typical maximumefficiency (LHV)
Subcritical (SUBCR) 538 167 39%
Supercritical (SUPERC) 540-566 250 42%
Ultra-supercritical* (ULTRSC) 580-620 270-290 47%
Source:Hendriksetal,2004.
*Itshouldbenotedthatnointernationallyaccepteddefinitionofultrasupercriticalcurrentlyexists.Forexample,theIEAETPanalysis
(IEA,2010)definesultrasupercriticalasplantswithoperatingsteamtemperatures 600C.
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Limitationsanduncertainties
Availabledatabasesontheinstalledglobalcoalfiredpowerplantfleetareextensive,butnotable
to cover the full fleet. Databases such as WEPP typically claim anearly complete coverage of
extantplantsintheorderof95%ormoreofthefacilities.DataforChinaareanexception,wheretheconsiderablemajority,ormorethan75%offacilities,areclaimedtobecovered.
Figure2WEPPandeGRIDdataoftheinstalledcoalfiredpowerplantfleetintheUnitedStates
For the purposes of this study, most countries are well covered by the WEPP database. An
exampleisprovidedinFigure2,whichcomparesdataoftheinstalledcoalfiredpowerplantfleet
in theUnitedStates from theWEPPdatabase,and from theEmissions&GenerationResource
IntegratedDatabase(eGRID)databaseoftheUSEnvironmentalProtectionAgency(eGRID,2011).
The overall age and capacity profiles of databases are matching very well. The total installed
capacityaccordingtoWEPPis317GW,whichisabout95%ofthecapacitythatisreportedbythe
eGRIDdatabase.
Inorderto illustratetherangeofuncertaintyofWEPPdata,Figure3presentsacomparisonof
WEPP
data
with
coal
power
plant
data
by
the
German
Federal
Network
Agency
for
Electricity,
Gas,Telecommunications,PostandRailway,Bundesnetzagentur(BNetzA,2011).
While coverageofplantsyounger than26years isquite similar, theWEPPdatabase reportsa
highershareofolderpowerplantscomparedtotheofficialdata.Thetotalcoalpowergeneration
capacity estimated for Germany by WEPP is about 19% above the data by the German
authorities.1
1 Itisbeyondthescopeofthisstudytoidentifytheexactreasonforthisdifference.PowerplantoperatorsinGermanyare
obligedtoreporttheirdatatotheGermanauthorities.ItthusmightbethattheWEPPdatabasestilllistssomeolderpower
plantsthatarenolongeroperatingtoday.
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
05
610
11
15
16
20
21
25
26
30
31
35
36
40
41
45
46
50
51
55
56
60
61
65
66
70
71
75
Installedcapacityperages
egment(MW)
Plantage
(years)
eGriddata
WEPPdata
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OECD/IEA2012 CCSRetrofitAnalysisoftheGloballyInstalledCoalFiredPowerPlantFleet
Page|13
Figure3WEPPandBNetzAdataoftheinstalledcoalfiredpowerplantfleetinGermany
EvaluatingthepotentialandtechnoeconomicviabilityofCCSretrofittinganindividualcoalfired
powerplant ischallenging. It requiresabreadthof technicalandnontechnicalconsiderations,
whichareusuallyhighlymarket,region andsitespecific.Itisunrealistictoexpectaglobaldata
analysis
to
provide
an
exact
picture
of
the
realistic
potential
of
retrofitting
worldwide.
It is, hence, beyond the scope of this study to assess in detail the technical feasibility and
economicalattractivenessofCCSretrofittingacrossthegloballyinstalledfleet.Nonetheless,this
analysis aims to support and inform the ongoing discussion on the effective potential for
retrofitting. Further, it focuses on the likely potential of retrofitting, based on available data
relatedtotheglobalcoalfiredpowerplantfleet.
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)
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CCSRetrofitAnalysisoftheGloballyInstalledCoalFiredPowerPlantFleet OECD/IEA2012
Page|14
Analysisofthegloballyinstalledfleet
Thischapterpresentsresultsoftheanalysisoftheglobalcoalfiredpowerplantfleetbasedon
theWEPPdatabaseandIEAstatistics.Alldatapresentedinthisstudyconsideronlyinstalledcoal
firedpower
plants
currently
in
operation.
Power
plants
that
are
either
under
construction
or
havebeenmothballed,retiredorshutdownalsoexist,butarenotpresentinthisstudy.Although
data are referred to as power plant data throughout the document, the underlying data are
basedonindividualpowergenerationunits(blocks).
Globalprofileoftheinstalledcoalfiredpowerplantfleet
Figure4 illustratestheageandsizeprofileoftheglobally installedcoalfiredpowerplantfleet,
whichconsistsofapproximately1627GWgeneratingcapacity intotal.Thefigureshowsavery
steepincreaseinnetpowergeneratingcapacityfromcoalfiredpowerplantsoverthelastfiveyears,
inparticular for largepowerplantsabove300MWcapacity.Basedontheavailabledata,more
thanone
fifth
of
the
currently
installed
fleet
worldwide
is
younger
than
five
years
old,
and
more
thanhalfof the installed fleet isyounger than20years. In termsof retrofitopportunities, the
comparably largeshareof fairlyyoungand largepowerplants thatare installedandoperating
wouldsuggestaratherlargepopulationofpowerplantstobesuitableforretrofittingCCS.
Figure4Totalcoalfiredpowerplantcapacityglobally,brokendownbyageandgenerationcapacity
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
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50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
Percentageofglobalcapacity
Totalglobalcapacityperagesegment(MW)
Plantage(years)
500+MW
400499MW
300399MW
200299MW
100199MW
099MW
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OECD/IEA2012 CCSRetrofitAnalysisoftheGloballyInstalledCoalFiredPowerPlantFleet
Page|15
Figure5showsthemovetowards installingsupercriticalandultrasupercriticalcoalfiredpower
plants over the last two decades. Nonetheless, the vast majority of installed plants still use
subcriticalsteamconditions,andcannotreachperformancelevelsofstateofthearttechnology.
In fact, the totalcapacityof installed subcriticalcoalfiredpowerplants reacheda recordhigh
overthelastfiveyears.
Figure5Totalcoalfiredpowerplantcapacityglobally,brokendownbyageandperformancelevel
CountrieswiththelargestCO2emissionsfromcoalfired
powergeneration
Together,onlytencountriesrepresentmorethan85%of theworlds totalCO2emissions from
coal or peat through the production of electricity and heat, which, based on IEA statistics,
accumulated
to
8.2
Gt
in
2008.
These
ten
countries
and
the
annual
CO2
emissions
are
listed
in
Table 2. In addition, the total power generation capacity of coalfired power plants in these
countriesisprovided.Overall,thesetencountriesaccountforover1300GWor,moreprecisely,
84% of the globally installed and operating coalfired power plant fleet, which today totals
approximately1627GWworldwide.
Theinstalledglobalcoalfiredpowerplantcapacityisbrokendownpercentagewisepercountry
in Figure 6. Differences between the shares CO2 emissions and power generation can be
attributed to differences in the performance and operating profile of the actual power plant
fleetsinthedifferentcountries.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
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100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
Percentageofglobalcap
acity
Totalglobalcapacityperage
segment(MW)
Plantage(years)
ULTRSC
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CCSRetrofitAnalysisoftheGloballyInstalledCoalFiredPowerPlantFleet OECD/IEA2012
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Table2Countriesthataccountformorethan85%ofglobalCO2emissionsfromcoal/peatthrough
theproductionofelectricityandheat
CO2emissions in Megatonnes(Mt) from electricity and heat
productionCoal power units Total capacity (MW)
China 3 017 2 929 669 259
United States 1 929 1 368 336 332
India 663 809 100 540
Germany 250 273 51 071
Russia 223 487 50 456
Japan 217 155 41 031
South Africa 203 114 37 500
Australia 203 109 29 971
Korea 150 86 26 296
Poland 149 544 32 067
Source:IEA,2010b.
Figure6BreakdownofglobalCO2emissionsfromcoal/peatthroughtheproductionofelectricity,heat,
andpowergenerationcapacity
Source:IEA,2010b.
China
37%
UnitedStates
23%India
8%
Germany
3%
Russian
Federation
3%
Japan
3%
SouthAfrica
2%
Australia
2%
Korea
2%
Poland
2%
Restofthe
world
15%
Percentofglobalemissions
China
41%
UnitedStates
21%India
6%
Germany
3%
Russia
3%
Japan
2%
SouthAfrica
2%
Poland2%
Australia
2%
Korea
2%
Restofthe
world
16%
Coalfiredpowerplantfleet(1627GW)
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OECD/IEA2012 CCSRetrofitAnalysisoftheGloballyInstalledCoalFiredPowerPlantFleet
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Caseanalyses
Thisstudy illustratesthepotentialsizeoftheglobally installedcoalfiredpowerplantfleetthat
couldbemostattractiveforconsideringCCSretrofit.
Resultsfordifferentglobalcaseanalysesarepresentedassumingcertainminimumrequirements
relatedtothreedimensions:1)generatingcapacity,2)plantage,and3)performancelevel.While
these results only indicate quantities of the theoretical potential of CCS retrofitting, they
nonetheless provide the reader with an idea of the order of magnitude and potential, while
providing guidance on which geographic regions are most attractive for further followup
analysis.
Forthepurposeofthisstudy,threeCCSretrofitcasesarechosen:
Case1:PlantsconsideredattractiveforCCSretrofitthatareyoungerthan30yearsandhavea
powergenerationcapacityabove100MW;
Case2:PlantsconsideredattractiveforCCSretrofitthatareyoungerthan20yearsandhavea
powergenerationcapacityabove300
MW;
Case3:PlantsconsideredattractiveforCCSretrofitthatareyoungerthan10yearsandhavea
powergenerationcapacityabove300MW.
Theparameter limitsforthethreecasesarederivedfromfindingsfromsitespecificstudies,as
outlinedearlier,and shouldnotbe construedashavinganyother legitimacybeyond this.The
levels for generating capacity,age,and performance level arebestestimatesand intended to
supportthereadersownjudgementonrealisticpotentialforCCSretrofitting.
Allcasesarebasedononly twohighlevelcriteria related to theageand capacity levelof the
operating coalfired power plants covered in the used databases. Any further sitespecific
considerations,suchasavailabilityofspaceforretrofit,technicalpossibilitytoretrofit,accessto
costeffective,sufficientCO2transportationandstorageinfrastructure,economicattractiveness,
sufficient legislative support and social acceptance are beyond the scope of this study. These
considerationswill,however, likely to lead toa significant reduction in theactualpotential to
realizeCCSretrofitting.
Resultsfrompreviousstudiescanprovideafirstimpressiononhowthepopulationofpotentially
attractivecoalfiredpowerplantsisimpactedbyconsideringadditionalparameters.
Forexample,arecentstudybyNETL(NETL,2011)analysedthepopulationofcoalpowerplants
that are attractive for retrofit was reduced by 13% when considering if a potential CO2
sequestrationtargetwaswithin25miles(40km)distance.
Inaddition,adetailedstudyoftheCCSretrofittingpotentialinChinaconcludedthatbynumber
ofsitesabove1000MW installedcapacityonly19%appeartohaveahighretrofitpotential
(Li,2010).Thepotentialfor35%oftheanalysedsitesremaineduncertain,while43%ofthesites
wereconsiderednotsuitableforCCSretrofitting.
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CCSRetrofitAnalysisoftheGloballyInstalledCoalFiredPowerPlantFleet OECD/IEA2012
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Impactofminimumpowerplantsizeandageonplantpopulation
Basedonavailabledata,thecapacityofthecurrentlyoperatingglobalfleetofcoalfiredpower
plantsis1627GW.
Case1(units
100
MW)
results
on
aglobal
level
Figure7Installedtotalcoalfiredpowerplantcapacityinallcountriesandbreakdownbyageandcapacity
Figure7 illustratesthatabout1519GW,ormorethan93%oftotalglobally installed fleet,are
actually units that have a power generation output above 100 MW. More than 63% of the
globally installed fleet, or 1036 GW, are both above 100 MW in capacity and younger than
30years
old.
Nearly
60%
of
these
plants
are
located
in
China,
in
total
600
GW.
Figure8Breakdownofyoung(100MW)coalfiredpowerplants
Figure 8 illustrates the exceptional role thatChinaplays in this context.Not only is the total
generationcapacityinChinaoverwhelming,aspresentedinTable2,butnoothercountryhasa
similarlylargeoperatingcoalpowerfleetinthisageandcapacitysegment.
China,600
UnitedStates,86
India,79
Germany,24
Russia,12
Japan,34
SouthAfrica,24
Poland,10
Australia,20
Korea,24
Restofthe
world,124
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OECD/IEA2012 CCSRetrofitAnalysisoftheGloballyInstalledCoalFiredPowerPlantFleet
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Case2(units300MW)resultsonagloballevel
Approximately1113GWor68%ofunits in theglobalcoalfiredpowerplant fleetcurrently in
operationareabove300MWofpowergenerationoutput,as illustrated inFigure9.Underthis
morestringentsecondcase,ifonlyplantsthatareyoungerthan20yearsareconsidered,665GW
remainpotential
candidates
for
CCS
retrofitting,
or
about
41%
of
the
global
operational
fleet.
Out
ofthispopulationofplantsthatappearparticularlyattractiveforCCSretrofitting,481GWor72%
arelocatedinChina.
Figure9Installedtotalcoalfiredpowerplantcapacityinallcountriesandbreakdownbyageandcapacity
Consideringtheregionalbreakdown,itisremarkablethatthecontributionoftheinstalledfleetin
anyothercountrythanChinatotheglobalpopulationofplantswithsimilarcharacteristicsdoes
notexceed
25
GW,
as
shown
in
Figure
10.
Figure10Breakdownofyoung(300MW)coalfiredpowerplants
These data underline the overwhelming importance that should be attributed to further
understanding the realisticpotentialofCCS, ingeneral,and retrofitting, inparticular, inChina
compared to other large CO2 emitting countries. The size, capacity and age profile of the
operating Chinese coalfired power plant fleet is remarkable in the context of better
understandingandquantifyingarealisticpotentialforCCSretrofitting.
China,481
UnitedStates,20
India,24
Germany,9
Russia,1
Japan,25
SouthAfrica,7
Poland,2
Australia,7
Korea,21
Restofthe
world,58
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CCSRetrofitAnalysisoftheGloballyInstalledCoalFiredPowerPlantFleet OECD/IEA2012
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Case3(units300MW)resultsonagloballevel
Under these highest stringent requirements, only taking into account bigger sized coalfired
powerplantsatanagebelow10years,471GWremainpotentialcandidatesforCCSretrofitting,
orabout29%oftheglobaloperationalfleet.Outofthispopulationofplantsthatappeartobe
attractivefor
retrofit,
390
GW
or
83%
are
located
in
China.
Figure11Installedtotalcoalfiredpowercapacityinallcountriesandbreakdownbyageandcapacity
In comparison to the resultsof the second caseanalysis, these results further amplifyChinas
prospectsforretrofittingCCSduetotheageoftheexistingplants.
Figure12Furtherbreakdownofyoung(300MW)coalfiredpowerplants
Irrespectiveoftheparametersappliedinthisstudyfornarrowingthetechnicalretrofitpotential
oftodays
installed
fleet,
other
factors
such
as
technological
maturity
will
influence
the
realistic
potentialforCCSretrofitting.There isuncertaintyonwhenCCScanreach itscommercialisation
phase in thepowersector,but theexperienceswithsomecurrentdemonstrationprojectscan
leavedoubtsonreachingthatphaseby2020.2Evenifthecommercialisationstageisreachedby
2020,thiswillmeanthatthepotentialgivenabovewillbereduced,sinceplantswillgrowolder.
Therefore,itisofspecificinteresttoassessboththeexistingcoalfiredpowerplantfleet,aswell
asplants likely tobebuilt in the future.This leads to theconclusion thatspecialconsideration
shouldbegiventoallowingforcosteffectiveCCSretrofitting inthefuturewhendesigningnew
powerplantsnotyetequippedwithCCS.
2Forexample,theIEAWorldEnergyOutlook2011examinestheresultsofatenyeardelayforCCS.
China,390
UnitedStates,14
India,18
Germany,1
Russia,1
Japan,10
SouthAfrica,1
Poland,1
Australia,3
Korea,11
Restoftheworld,23
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OECD/IEA2012 CCSRetrofitAnalysisoftheGloballyInstalledCoalFiredPowerPlantFleet
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AnalysisformajorCO2emittingcountries
Thischapterpresentsamoredetailedbreakdownoftheoperatingcoalfiredpowerplantfleetin
those ten countries that account for more than 85% of the worlds CO2 emissions from coal
powergeneration.
China
Characteristics of the current coal power plant fleet in China are illustrated in the following
figure,whichshowstheageandperformanceprofileofthecompletecoalpowerplantfleet.
Figure13China:Profileofoperatingfleetofcoalfiredpowerplants
Generalobservationsfromthecaseanalysis
ThefundamentalcharacteristicsofthecoalpowerfleetinChinacanbesummarisedasfollows:
Thereportedtotalgenerationcapacityoftheoperatingfleetis669GW;
89%ofthetotaloperatingcoalfiredpowerplantfleetisyoungerthan20years;
69%ofthetotaloperatingcoalfiredpowerplantisyoungerthan10years;
75% of the total operating coalfired power plant fleet has a generation capacity above
300MW;
25%ofthetotaloperatingcoalfiredpowerplantfleethassuper orultrasupercriticalsteam
parameters;
27% of the total operating coalfired power plant fleet that is younger than 20 years has
super orultrasupercriticalsteamparameters;
34% of the total operating coalfired power plant fleet that is younger than 10 years has
super orultrasupercriticalsteamparameters.
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(MW)peragesegment
Plantage(years)
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CCSRetrofitAnalysisoftheGloballyInstalledCoalFiredPowerPlantFleet OECD/IEA2012
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Case1 (powerplantsyoungerthan30yearsandabove100MWcapacity):90%ofthetotal
operatingcoalfiredpowerplantfleet,or600GW;
Case2 (powerplantsyoungerthan20yearsandabove300MWcapacity):72%ofthetotal
operatingcoalfiredpowerplantfleet,or481GW;
Case3(power
plants
younger
than
10
years
and
above
300
MW
capacity):
58%
of
the
total
operatingcoalfiredpowerplantfleet,or390GW.
Keycountryspecificconclusions
Chinahasclearlythelargestcoalfiredpowerplantfleetinstalledinasinglecountry.Inaddition,
amongthetencountrieswiththelargestcoalfiredpowergenerationcapacityworldwide,China
hasbyfartheyoungestfleetcurrentlyinoperation.Itistobenotedhoweverthat,ofthe293GW
plant capacity installed over the last five years, almost 50% employed subcritical steam
conditions.
Consideringthe largetotaloperatingcapacity,thehighaveragecapacityofsingleunitsandthe
youngage
profile
of
the
Chinese
coal
power
fleet,
it
has
by
far
the
largest
population
of
coal
powergenerationunitsthatshouldbeconsideredattractiveforCCSretrofitting.
Giventherelativelyrecent,verysteep,increaseincapacityadditionsofcoalfiredpowerplantsin
China, it is incumbentonpolicymakerstoanalyseandconsidertheneedtodesignnewpower
plantsCCSreadyand,hence,avoidthefuturelockinofCO2emissions.
UnitedStatesofAmerica
Characteristicsof the currentlyoperating coalfiredpowerplant fleet in theUnited States are
illustrated in the following figure. The figure shows the age and performance profile of the
completecoal
power
plant
fleet.
Figure14UnitedStatesofAmerica:Profileofoperatingfleetofcoalfiredpowerplants
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Installednewcapacity
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OECD/IEA2012 CCSRetrofitAnalysisoftheGloballyInstalledCoalFiredPowerPlantFleet
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Generalobservationsfromthecaseanalysis
ThefundamentalcharacteristicsofthecoalpowerfleetintheUnitedStatescanbesummarised
asfollows:
The reported total generation capacity of the operating coalfired power plant fleet is
336GW;
8%ofthetotaloperatingcoalfiredpowerplantfleetisyoungerthan20years;
5%ofthetotaloperatingcoalfiredpowerplantfleetisyoungerthan10years;
74% of the total operating coalfired power plant fleet has a generation capacity above
300MW;
27%ofthetotaloperatingcoalfiredpowerplantfleethassuper orultrasupercriticalsteam
parameters;
27% of the total operating coalfired power plant fleet that is younger than 20 years has
super orultrasupercriticalsteamparameters;
36% of the total operating coalfired power plant fleet that is younger than 10 years hassuper orultrasupercriticalsteamparameters.
Case1 (powerplantsyoungerthan30yearsandabove100MWcapacity):25%ofthetotal
operatingcoalfiredpowerplantfleet,or86GW;
Case2 (powerplantsyounger than20yearsandabove300MWcapacity):6%of the total
operatingcoalfiredpowerplantfleet,or20GW;
Case3 (powerplantsyounger than10yearsandabove300MW capacity):4%of the total
operatingcoalfiredpowerplantfleet,or14GW.
Keycountry
specific
conclusions
The coalfiredpowerplant fleet in theUnitedStates is the second largest installed ina single
country.Amongthetencountrieswiththelargestcoalpowergenerationcapacityworldwide,the
UnitedStateshasthelowestshareofpowerplantsthatareyoungerthan20yearsold.Theshare
ofpowergenerationunitswithacapacityabove300MWishowevercomparativelyhigh.3
India
Characteristics of the currently operating coal power plant fleet in India are illustrated in the
Figure15below.Thefigureshowstheageandperformanceprofileofthecompletecoalpower
plantfleet.
Generalobservationsfromthecaseanalysis
ThefundamentalcharacteristicsofthecoalpowerfleetinIndiacanbesummarisedasfollows:
Thetotaloperatingcoalfiredpowerplantfleethas101GWofgenerationcapacity;
57%ofthetotaloperatingcoalfiredpowerplantfleetisyoungerthan20years;
37%ofthetotaloperatingcoalfiredpowerplantfleetisyoungerthan10years;
3ThesmallshareofveryoldultrasupercriticalpowerplantsintheUnitedStatesrepresentslikelytheveryfirstunitsofthis
technologythatwereunderdevelopmentatthattime(asimilarphenomenoncanbefoundforRussia).
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CCSRetrofitAnalysisoftheGloballyInstalledCoalFiredPowerPlantFleet OECD/IEA2012
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29% of the total operating coalfired power plant fleet has a generation capacity above
300MW;
1%ofthetotaloperatingcoalfiredpowerplant fleethassuper orultrasupercriticalsteam
parameters;
1%ofthe
total
operating
coal
fired
power
plant
fleet
that
is
younger
than
20
years
has
super
orultrasupercriticalsteamparameters;
2%ofthetotaloperatingcoalfiredpowerplantfleetthatisyoungerthan10yearshassuper
orultrasupercriticalsteamparameters.
Case1 (powerplantsyoungerthan30yearsandabove100MWcapacity):79%ofthetotal
operatingcoalfiredpowerplantfleet,or79GW;
Case2(powerplantsyoungerthan20yearsandabove300MWcapacity):24%ofthetotal
operatingcoalfiredpowerplantfleet,or24GW;
Case3 (powerplantsyoungerthan10yearsandabove300MWcapacity):18%ofthetotal
operatingcoal
fired
power
plant
fleet,
or
18
GW.
Figure15India:Profileofoperatingfleetofcoalfiredpowerplants
Keycountryspecificconclusions
Thecoalfiredpowerplantfleet in India isthethird largest installed inasinglecountry.Among
thetencountrieswiththelargestcapacitycoalfiredpowerplantfleetsworldwide,Indianplants
haveacomparablyhighshareofgenerationunitswithrelativelysmallgenerationcapacity.Apart
from a very few recentlybuilt exceptions, the Indian coalfiredpowerplant fleet isbasedon
subcriticaltechnology.
ThesteepincreaseincoalfiredpowerplantadditionsoverthelastyearsinIndiarequiresspecial
consideration in terms ofdesigning new plants not already equippedwith CCS in away that
wouldallowcosteffectiveCCSretrofitinthefuture.However,otherfactorssuchasthegeneral
acceptanceofCCShavetoimprove,toraiseIndiasretrofitpotential.
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capacity
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OECD/IEA2012 CCSRetrofitAnalysisoftheGloballyInstalledCoalFiredPowerPlantFleet
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Germany
CharacteristicsofthecurrentlyoperatingcoalfiredpowerplantfleetinGermanyare illustrated
inthe following figure.Thefigureshowstheageandperformanceprofileofthecompletecoal
powerplantfleet.
Figure16Germany:Profileofoperatingfleetofcoalfiredpowerplants
Generalobservationsfromthecaseanalysis
The
fundamental
characteristics
of
the
coal
power
fleet
in
Germany
can
be
summarised
as
follows:
Thereportedtotalgenerationcapacityoftheoperatingcoalfiredpowerplantfleetis51GW;
22%ofthetotaloperatingcoalfiredpowerplantfleetisyoungerthan20years;
4%ofthetotaloperatingcoalfiredpowerplantfleetisyoungerthan10years;
75%of the total operating coalfired power plant fleet has a generation capacity above
300MW;
21%ofthetotaloperatingcoalfiredpowerplantfleethassuper orultrasupercriticalsteam
parameters;
77% of the total operating coalfired power plant fleet that is younger than 20 years has
super orultrasupercriticalsteamparameters;
92% of the total operating coalfired power plant fleet that is younger than 10 years has
super orultrasupercriticalsteamparameters.
Case1(powerplantsyoungerthan30yearsandabove100MWcapacity):48%ofthetotal
operatingcoalfiredpowerplantfleet,or24GW;
Case2 (powerplantsyoungerthan20yearsandabove300MWcapacity):17%ofthetotal
operatingcoalfiredpowerplantfleet,or9GW;
Case 3 (powerplantsyounger than10yearsandabove300MW capacity):2%of the total
operatingcoalfiredpowerplantfleet,or1GW.
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46
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55
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(MW)
peragesegment
Plantage(years)
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CCSRetrofitAnalysisoftheGloballyInstalledCoalFiredPowerPlantFleet OECD/IEA2012
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Keycountryspecificconclusions
ThefleetinGermanyisthefourthlargestcoalfiredpowerplantfleetinstalledinasinglecountry.
BasedonWEPPdata, fouroutof fiveof the coalfiredpowerplants currently inoperation in
Germany are older than 20 years.4Germany has a fairlyhigh share of large coalfired power
plantunits.
Russia
Characteristicsofthecurrentlyoperatingcoalfiredpowerplantfleet inRussiaare illustrated in
the following figure. The figure shows the age and performance profile of the complete coal
powerplantfleet.
Figure17Russia:Profileofoperatingfleetofcoalfiredpowerplants
Generalobservations
from
the
case
analysis
ThefundamentalcharacteristicsofthecoalpowerfleetinRussiacanbesummarisedasfollows:
Thereportedtotalgenerationcapacityoftheoperatingcoalfiredpowerplantfleetis50GW;
19%ofthetotaloperatingcoalfiredpowerplantfleetisyoungerthan20years;
13%ofthetotaloperatingcoalfiredpowerplantfleetisyoungerthan10years;
30% of the total operating coalfired power plant fleet has a generation capacity above
300MW;
4SeefurtherremarksondataaccuracyandadiscussionofdataforGermanyinthechapterLimitationsandUncertaintiesof
thisreport.
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55
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(MW
)peragesegment
Plantage(years)
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29%ofthetotaloperatingcoalfiredpowerplantfleethassuper orultrasupercriticalsteam
parameters;
32% of the total operating coalfired power plant fleet that is younger than 20 years has
super orultrasupercriticalsteamparameters;
37% of the total operating coalfired power plant fleet that is younger than 10 years hassuper orultrasupercriticalsteamparameters.
Case1 (powerplantsyoungerthan30yearsandabove100MWcapacity):24%ofthetotal
operatingcoalfiredpowerplantfleet,or12GW;
Case2 (powerplantsyounger than20yearsandabove300MW capacity):3%of the total
operatingcoalfiredpowerplantfleet,or1.4GW;
Case3 (powerplantsyounger than10yearsandabove300MW capacity):1%of the total
operatingcoalfiredpowerplantfleet,or1GW.
Keycountry
specific
conclusions
Russiahasthe fifth largestcoalfiredpowerplant fleet installed inasinglecountry.Amongthe
ten countries with the largest coalfired power generation worldwide, Russia is one of the
countrieswiththelowestshareofpowerplantsthatareyoungerthan20years,andthelowest
shareofpowerplantsthatlargerthan300MWcapacity.5
Japan
Characteristicsofthecurrentlyoperatingcoalfiredpowerplant fleet inJapanare illustrated in
the Figure 18 below. The figure shows the age and performance profile of the complete coal
powerplantfleet.
Generalobservationsfromthecaseanalysis
ThefundamentalcharacteristicsofthecoalpowerfleetinJapancanbesummarisedasfollows:
Thereportedtotalgenerationcapacityoftheoperatingcoalfiredpowerplantfleetis41GW;
70%ofthetotaloperatingcoalfiredpowerplantfleetisyoungerthan20years;
30%ofthetotaloperatingcoalfiredpowerplantfleetisyoungerthan10years;
77% of the total operating coalfired power plant fleet has a generation capacity above
300MW;
73%ofthetotaloperatingcoalfiredpowerplantfleethassuper orultrasupercriticalsteamparameters;
86% of the total operating coalfired power plant fleet that is younger than 20 years has
super orultrasupercriticalsteamparameters;
83% of the total operating coalfired power plant fleet that is younger than 10 years has
super orultrasupercriticalsteamparameters.
5ThesmallshareofveryoldultrasupercriticalpowerplantsinRussiarepresentslikelytheveryfirstunitsofthistechnology
thatwereunderdevelopmentatthattime(asimilarphenomenoncanbefoundfortheUnitedStates).
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Case1 (powerplantsyoungerthan30yearsandabove100MWcapacity):84%ofthetotal
operatingcoalfiredpowerplantfleet,or34GW;
Case2 (powerplantsyoungerthan20yearsandabove300MWcapacity):60%ofthetotal
operatingcoalfiredpowerplantfleet,or25GW;
Case3(power
plants
younger
than
10
years
and
above
300
MW
capacity):
25%
of
the
total
operatingcoalfiredpowerplantfleet,or10GW.
Figure18Japan:Profileofoperatingfleetofcoalfiredpowerplants
Keycountryspecificconclusions
FollowingKoreaandChina,Japanhasoneoftheyoungestcoalfiredpowerplantfleetamongthe
ten countrieswith the largest coalfiredpowergeneration capacityworldwide.Next toKorea,
Japan has one of the highest shares of super or ultrasupercritical power plants currently in
operation.
SouthAfrica
Characteristics of the currently operating coalfired power plant fleet in South Africa are
illustrated in the following figure. The figure shows the age and performance profile of the
completecoalpowerplantfleet.
0
2500
5000
7500
10
000
12500
15000
05
6
10
11
15
16
20
21
25
26
30
31
35
36
40
41
45
46
50
51
55
Installednewcapacity
(MW)peragesegment
Plantage(years)
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Figure19SouthAfrica:Profileofoperatingfleetofcoalfiredpowerplants
Generalobservationsfromthecaseanalysis
The fundamentalcharacteristicsof the coalpower fleet inSouthAfrica canbe summarisedas
follows:
Thereportedtotalgenerationcapacityoftheoperatingcoalfiredpowerplantfleetis38GW;
19%ofthetotaloperatingcoalfiredpowerplantfleetisyoungerthan20years;
2%ofthetotaloperatingcoalfiredpowerplantfleetisyoungerthan10years;
86%ofthe
total
operating
coal
fired
power
plant
fleet
has
ageneration
capacity
above
300MW;
Noneofthetotaloperatingcoalfiredpowerplantfleethassuper orultrasupercriticalsteam
parameters.
Case1 (powerplantsyoungerthan30yearsandabove100MWcapacity):64%ofthetotal
operatingcoalfiredpowerplantfleet,or24GW;
Case2 (powerplantsyoungerthan20yearsandabove300MWcapacity):19%ofthetotal
operatingcoalfiredpowerplantfleet,or7GW;
Case 3 (powerplantsyounger than10yearsandabove300MW capacity):2%of the total
operatingcoal
fired
power
plant
fleet,
or
1GW.
Keycountryspecificconclusions
Amongthetencountrieswiththe largestcoalfiredpowergenerationworldwideandaccording
totechnicalcriteriaobtainedfromtheWEPPdatabase,SouthAfricahasthe leastefficientfleet
currentlyinoperation,whichconsistsonlyofsubcriticalpowerplants6.Inaddition, ithasavery
lowshareofpowerplantsyoungerthan20years.
6Theoperationalefficiencyofcoalfiredpowerplants isalsoaffectedby factors suchascoalquality, cooling temperature
conditions, or the quality of the maintenance regime. It is beyond the scope of this study to identify the plantspecific
conditionsandefficiencyrates.
0
2500
5000
7500
10000
12500
15000
05
610
11
15
16
20
21
25
26
30
31
35
36
40
41
45
46
50
51
55
Installednewcapacity
(MW)peragesegment
Plantage(years)
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Australia
Characteristicsofthecurrentlyoperatingcoalfiredpowerplantfleet inAustraliaare illustrated
inthe following figure.The figureshowstheageandperformanceprofileofthecompletecoal
powerplantfleet.
Figure20Australia:Profileofoperatingfleetofcoalfiredpowerplants
Generalobservations
from
the
case
analysis
ThefundamentalcharacteristicsofthecoalpowerfleetinAustraliacanbesummarisedasfollows:
Thereportedtotalgenerationcapacityoftheoperatingcoalfiredpowerplantfleetis30GW;
26%ofthetotaloperatingcoalfiredpowerplantfleetisyoungerthan20years;
12%ofthetotaloperatingcoalfiredpowerplantfleetisyoungerthan10years;
76%ofthetotaloperatingcoalfiredpowerplantfleethasagenerationcapacityabove300MW;
10%ofthetotaloperatingcoalfiredpowerplantfleethassuper orultrasupercriticalsteam
parameters;
38% of the total operating coalfired power plant fleet that is younger than 20 years has
superor
ultra
supercritical
steam
parameters;
83% of the total operating coalfired power plant fleet that is younger than 10 years has
super orultrasupercriticalsteamparameters.
Case1(powerplantsyoungerthan30yearsandabove100MWcapacity):65%ofthetotal
operatingcoalfiredpowerplantfleet,or20GW;
Case2 (powerplantsyoungerthan20yearsandabove300MWcapacity):24%ofthetotal
operatingcoalfiredpowerplantfleet,or7GW;
Case3(powerplantsyoungerthan10yearsandabove300MWcapacity):10%ofthetotal
operatingcoalfiredpowerplantfleet,or3GW.
0
1000
2000
3000
40005
000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
05
610
11
15
16
20
21
25
26
30
31
35
36
40
41
45
46
50
51
55
Installednewcapacity
(MW)per
agesegment
Plantage(years)
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Keycountryspecificconclusions
Among the ten countrieswith the largest coalfiredpower generationworldwide,Australia is
amongthefourcountrieswiththelowestshareofsuper orultrasupercriticalpowergeneration
intheinstalledfleetcurrentlyinoperation.Inaddition,thefractionofpowerplantsyoungerthan
20years
is
comparably
low.
RepublicofKorea
Characteristicsofthecurrentlyoperatingcoalfiredpowerplant fleet inKoreaare illustrated in
thefollowingFigure21below.Thefigureshowstheageandperformanceprofileofthecomplete
coalpowerplantfleet.
Figure21Korea:Profileofoperatingfleetofcoalfiredpowerplants
Generalobservationsfromthecaseanalysis
ThefundamentalcharacteristicsofthecoalpowerfleetinKoreacanbesummarisedasfollows:
Thereportedtotalgenerationcapacityoftheoperatingcoalfiredpowerplantfleetis26GW;
82%ofthetotaloperatingcoalfiredpowerplantfleetisyoungerthan20years;
40%of
the
total
operating
coal
fired
power
plant
fleet
is
younger
than
10
years;
8% of the total operating coalfired power plant fleet has a generation capacity above
300MW;
74%ofthetotaloperatingcoalfiredpowerplantfleethassuper orultrasupercriticalsteam
parameters;
90% of the total operating coalfired power plant fleet that is younger than 20 years has
super orultrasupercriticalsteamparameters;
100%of the totaloperating coalfiredpowerplant fleet that is younger than10 yearshas
super orultrasupercriticalsteamparameters.
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
05
610
11
15
16
20
21
25
26
30
31
35
36
40
41
45
46
50
51
55
Installednewcapacity
(MW)peragesegment
Plantage(years)
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Case1 (powerplantsyoungerthan30yearsandabove100MWcapacity):90%ofthetotal
operatingcoalfiredpowerplantfleet,or24GW;
Case2 (powerplantsyoungerthan20yearsandabove300MWcapacity):78%ofthetotal
operatingcoalfiredpowerplantfleet,or21GW;
Case3 (powerplantsyoungerthan10yearsandabove300MWcapacity):40%ofthetotal
operatingcoalfiredpowerplantfleet,or11GW.
Keycountryspecificconclusions
Among the ten countries with the largest coalfired power generation worldwide, the fleet in
Koreahasoneof the largest sharesof super orultrasupercritical coalpowergeneration ina
singlecountry.Inaddition, it isamongthethreecountrieswiththeyoungest installedfleetand
thelargestshareoflargegenerationunitsthatiscurrentlyoperating.
Thesteepincreaseinadditiontocoalfiredpowerplantoverthelast20yearsinKorearequires
specialconsiderationintermsofdesigningnewpowerplantsthatarenotalreadyequippedwith
CCSinawaythatwouldallowforcosteffectiveCCSretrofittinginthefuture.
Poland
CharacteristicsofthecurrentlyoperatingcoalfiredpowerplantfleetinPolandareillustratedin
thefollowingFigure22below.Thefigureshowstheageandperformanceprofileofthecomplete
coalpowerplantfleet.
Generalobservationsfromthecaseanalysis
ThefundamentalcharacteristicsofthecoalpowerfleetinPolandcanbesummarisedasfollows:
Thereportedtotalgenerationcapacityoftheoperatingcoalfiredpowerplantfleetis32GW;
16%ofthetotaloperatingcoalfiredpowerplantfleetisyoungerthan20years;
6%ofthetotaloperatingcoalfiredpowerplantfleetisyoungerthan10years;
25% of the total operating coalfired power plant fleet has a generation capacity above
300MW;
3%ofthetotaloperatingcoalfiredpowerplantfleethassuper orultrasupercriticalsteam
parameters;
18% of the total operating coalfired power plant fleet that is younger than 20 years has
super orultrasupercriticalsteamparameters;
53% of the total operating coalfired power plant fleet that is younger than 10 years hassuper orultrasupercriticalsteamparameters.
Case1 (powerplantsyoungerthan30yearsandabove100MWcapacity):31%ofthetotal
operatingcoalfiredpowerplantfleet,or10GW;
Case2 (powerplantsyounger than20yearsandabove300MW capacity): 8%of the total
operatingcoalfiredpowerplantfleet,or2.4GW;
Case3 (powerplantsyounger than10yearsandabove300MW capacity):3%of the total
operatingcoalfiredpowerplantfleet,or1GW.
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Figure22Poland:Profileofoperatingfleetofcoalfiredpowerplants
Keycountryspecificconclusions
Among the ten countrieswith the largest coalfiredpowerplant fleetworldwide, the fleet in
Polandisamongthethreecountrieswiththelowestshareofsuper orultrasupercriticalsteam
parameters,thehighestage,andthelowestshareoflargepowergenerationunits.
Summary
Key
country
level
data
related
to
the
case
analysis
are
summarised
in
Table
3
below.
In
comparisontootherregionsintheworld,thecoalpowerplantfleetsinChina,JapanandKorea
areyoung,basedonahighshareofgenerationunitswith largeindividualgenerationcapacities
and modern steam parameters. From a fundamental perspective, these conditions are
advantageousfortheeconomicsofCCSretrofitting.7
Incontrast,coalfiredpowerplantfleetsintheUnitedStates,Russia,andPolandaredominated
bycomparablyoldplants.Inaddition,theIndiancoalfiredpowerplantfleetischaracterisedbya
highshareofsmallgenerationcapacityunitsandplantsbasedonsubcriticaltechnology. Inthe
caseofRussiaandPoland,acomparablylargeshareofsmallerunitsisinstalled.Theseconditions
arebasedongenericcriteria,andnotconsideringsitespecificaspectsdisadvantageous for
the economicsof apure retrofit.However, in combinationwithupgrades, lifetime extension
measuresand
re
powering
of
older
power
plants,
CCS
retrofitting
can
still
be
an
option
also
for
thesepopulationsofcoalfiredpowerplants. Inordertonarrow the realistic retrofitpotential,
further assessments are required. This would include assessments of space availability for
retrofit,technicalpossibilitytoretrofit,accesstocosteffective,andsufficientCO2transportation
and storage infrastructure, economic attractiveness, sufficient legislative support and social
acceptance.
7ManyadditionalcriterianeedtobeconsideredwhenevaluatingCCSretrofits.Forexample,inJapanCO2storagecapacityis
consideredlimited,whichcouldsignificantlyreducetherealisticretrofitpotentialinJapan.
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
05
610
11
15
16
20
21
25
26
30
31
35
36
40
41
45
46
50
51
55
Installednewcapacity
(MW)peragesegment
Plantage(years)
SUPERC
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Table3Overviewoncaseresults
CountryTotal
Capacity
Share of plants that are
Case*youngerthan ...
years
largerthan
300 MW
super-or ultra-super-critical
super- orultra-
supercritical
and youngerthan ... years
20 10 20 10 1 2 3
China 669 GW 90% 69% 75% 25% 27% 34%90%
(600 GW)
72%
(481 GW)
58%
(390 GW)
UnitedStates
336 GW 8% 5% 74% 27% 27% 36%25%
(86 GW)
6%
(20 GW)
4%
(14 GW)
India 101 GW 58% 38% 29% 1% 1% 2%79%
(79 GW)
24%
(24 GW)
18%
(18 GW)
Germany 51 GW 21% 4% 75% 21% 77% 92%48%
(24 GW)
17%
(9 GW)
2%
(1 GW)
Russia 50 GW 19% 14% 30% 29% 32% 37%24%
(12 GW)
3%
(1.4 GW)
1%
(1 GW)
Japan 41 GW 70% 30% 77% 73% 86% 83%84%
(34 GW)
60%
(25 GW)
25%
(10 GW)
SouthAfrica
38 GW 19% 2% 86% 0% 0% 0%64%
(24 GW)
19%
(7 GW)
2%
(1 GW)
Australia 30 GW 26% 12% 76% 10% 38% 83%65%
(20 GW)
24%
(7 GW)
10%
(3 GW)
Korea 26 GW 82% 40% 88% 74% 90% 100%90%
(24 GW)
78%
(21 GW)
40%
(11 GW)
Poland 32 GW 16% 6% 25% 3% 18% 53%31%
(10 GW)
8%
(2.4 GW)
3%
(1 GW)
Note:bold:countrieswithhighestsharebycategory;underscore:countrieswithlowestsharebycategory
*Case1 includescoalfiredpowerplantsyoungerthan30yearswithagenerationcapacityabove100MW.Case2 includesplants
youngerthan20yearswithagenerationcapacityabove300MW.Case3includesplantsyounger10yearsandgenerationcapacity
above300MW.
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Analysisofexpectednewinstallations
Thischapteranalyses thepotential for retrofittingcoalfiredpowerplants thatare likely tobe
built over the coming decades. Again, an assessment including further relevant parameters,
would determine a more realistic potential for CCS retrofitting. Data from the New PoliciesScenariooftheIEAWEO2011areusedforthispurpose.TheNewPoliciesScenarioassumes
that recentgovernmentpolicy commitmentsaremeteven if theyarenotyetbackedupby
specificpolicymeasures.
Table4RegionalfocusofthisanalysisversusregionalbreakdowninWEO2011
Country Regional resolution in WEO 2011 analysis available?
China Yes
United States Yes
India Yes
Germany Covered in region EUG4 jointly with France, Italy and the United Kingdom
Russia Yes
Japan Yes
South Africa Yes
Australia Covered jointly with New Zealand
Korea Yes
Poland Covered under region EU17 jointly with other EU member countries apart from the EUG4
WEO2011datacovermostoftheindividualcountriesanalysedinthisstudy.OnlyforGermany,
Australia,andPolandaredataoftheWEO2011aggregatedwithneighbourcountries,asshown
inTable4.
Figure23New(gross)installationsofcoalfiredpowerplantsaccordingtotheWEO2011
NewPoliciesScenario(GW)
Theexpectedgrossnew installationsofcoalfiredpowerplants,not including retirements,are
showninFigure23above.SincepowerplantadditionsinChina,IndiaandtheUSwillrepresent
86% of the total expected gross new installations, Figure 23 groups the remaining countries
coveredbythisstudy.
In total,anestimated1112GWofnewcoalfiredpowerplantswillbe installed in theabove
mentionedregionsby2035.HalfofthenewinstallationsareexpectedtotakeplaceinChina.
0 200 400 600 800
20112025
20262035
China UnitedStates India Other
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The net newly installed coalfired power plant capacity expected up until 2035 in China is
488GW, which represents an addition of 73% to the present fleet currently in operation.
According to this scenario, the coalfiredpower plant fleet in Chinawould reach1157 GW in
2035.SouthAfrica isenvisaged toexperiencea similargrowth rateof58%during thisperiod,
whichwouldmakeittheworldsfourthlargestgeneratorofpowerfromcoal.Thehighestgrowth
rate isanticipated for India,withanadditional installationof225GW,whichwouldmorethan
doubletheircurrentlyinstalledcapacity.In2035,Indiasinstalledcoalfiredpowerplantcapacity
wouldreach325GW,wherebyIndiasfleetwouldovertakethatoftheUnitedStatestobecome
theworldssecondlargest.
Table5New(gross)installationsofcoalfiredpowerplantsaccordingtotheWEO2011
NewPoliciesScenario(GW)
2011-2015
2016-2020
2021-2025
2026-2030
2031-2035
2011-2025
2026-2035
China 197.1 135.7 76.3 72.4 73.9 409.1 146.3
United States 16.7 42.6 25.2 41.3 32.9 84.5 74.2
India 74.5 30.6 22.8 52.8 70.5 127.9 123.3
EUG4 12.4 1.4 14.7 3.7 2.7 28.5 6.4
Russia 6.8 6.9 7.6 7.1 3.8 21.2 11.0
Japan 3.1 0.2 0.1 - 1.5 3.4 1.5
South Africa 4.8 8.0 6.9 10.0 11.4 19.7 21.4
Australia & New Zealand 1.6 2.5 2.6 2.5 6.3 6.7 8.8
Korea 2.3 2.1 1.4 0.2 0.8 5.7 1.1
EU17 11.7 3.7 2.5 2.3 1.3 18.0 3.6
ThefiguresshowninTable5includethefractionofcoalfiredpowerplantsthatwouldalreadybe
equippedwithCCS.UndertheNewPoliciesScenariothisappliestoabout5%ofallcoalfired
power plants installed until 2035. In the same period, about 519 GW or 46% of the newly
installedcapacityofretirementsareexpectedunderthisscenario.Mostoftheretirementsare
likelytotakeplaceinEurope(EUG4+EU17,together37%)andtheUnitedStates(35%).
Table6TotalretirementsofcoalfiredpowerplantsaccordingtotheWEO2011NewPoliciesScenario(GW)
2011-2015
2016-2020
2021-2025
2026-2030
2031-2035
2011-2025
2026-2035
China 9.9 10.7 15.6 17.4 14.3 36.2 31.7
United States 8.3 23.6 23.5 59.0 67.9 55.5 126.9
India 1.5 3.2 3.5 6.2 12.2 8.2 18.4EUG4 5.2 28.6 21.8 8.4 16.1 55.6 24.5
Russia 8.0 9.4 8.9 10.9 5.4 26.4 16.3
Japan 1.2 2.7 2.7 1.5 4.5 6.6 6.0
South Africa 0.4 3.0 3.5 6.4 6.1 6.9 12.5
Australia & New Zealand 0.6 2.2 3.4 4.1 9.6 6.2 13.7
Korea - 0.3 1.1 0.8 2.7 1.4 3.5
EU17 5.2 9.8 16.0 17.0 14.8 31.1 31.8
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OECD/IE