COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
1
COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
Quenching the Thirst for Data: Maximizing Your Most Precious Asset, Spectrum Mike Schabel Sept. 17th, 2013
COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
2
COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
Nokia N90 2 megapixel
DEVICE CAPABILITY TRENDS MORE MEGAPIXELS, LARGER SCREENS, FASTER PROCESSORS
2011 2012 2013 2007 2005 2002
Sanyo SCP 5300 0.3 megapixel
Nokia N95 5 megapixel
HTC EVO 3D 5 megapixel – 3D!
Nokia Lumia 1020 41 megapixel
Samsung S4 16 megapixel iPhone 5
8 megapixel iPhone 5s, 16 megapixel
64-bit software, 40x faster then original iPhone
COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
3
COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
ADOPTION RATE OF MOBILE “COMPUTERS” DRIVE THE NEED FOR A WIRELESS ULTRABROADBAND NETWROK
TABLETS DRIVE A WHOLESALE SHIFT TO CLOUD SERVICES (AND WIRELESS ULTRA BROADBAND)
COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
4
COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
Quarters After Launch
25
30
15
20
35
10
5
0
40
6 5 4 3 2 1 0
iPod
iPhone
iPad
Glo
bal sh
ipm
ents
(m
m)
CAGR 2012-2015 Smartphones = 22%
Tablets = 35%
10 Blackberries = 1 iPhone
3 iPhones = 1 iPad
3 iPads = 1 data card
DEVICE PENETRATION TRAFFIC BY DEVICE TRAFFIC BY TYPE
Source: Bell Labs modeling, 2012
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Tra
ffic
(EB/m
onth
)
‘16 ‘15 ‘14 ‘13 ‘12 ‘11 ‘16 ‘15 ‘14 ‘13 ‘12 ‘11
M2M
Dongle/Tablet
Smartphone
Feature phone
All other
File transfer
Video comms
Audio stream
Video stream
4.2
2.8
1.7
1.0
0.5 0.2
45x – 85x growth in mobile traffic
CONSUMER MARKET TRENDS MOBILE DEVICE CAPABILITIES DRIVE CONSUMPTION
COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
5
COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
• EXPONENTIAL DATA
TRAFFIC GROWTH
• EXPONENTIAL CAPEX
EXPENSE GROWTH
• RELATIVELY FLAT DATA
ARPU GROWTH
WHERE DOES YOUR PROFITABILITY END? HISTORICAL SERVICE PROVIDER ECONOMICS
LOWER PER BIT COST
SOLUTIONS NEED TO BE
DEPLOYED IF PROFITABILITY
IS TO BE MAINTAINED
Source: Bell Labs Analysis
0
5
10
15
20
25
35
40
45
50
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
$/s
ub/m
onth
0
200
400
600
1000
1400
1600
Mb/d
ata
pla
n s
ub/m
onth
DATA ARPU CAPEX DATA TRAFFIC
30
800
1200
1800
DATA ARPU
CAPEX
DATA
TRAFFIC
COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
6
COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
2x
>10x
1.5-2x
MORE SPECTRUM
(Hz)
MORE SPECTRAL
EFFICIENCY (Bits/Sec/Hz)
MORE SPATIAL
EFFICIENCY (Bits/Sec/Hz/Sub)
INCREASE CAPACITY
THREE METHODS TO MAXIMIZE SPECTRUM ADDRESSING THE THIRST FOR DATA
COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
7
COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
INDUSTRY RESPONSE – MORE/FREE SPECTRUM AT&T Wi-Fi MOBILITY CASE STUDY
"All of our smartphones are sold with Wi-Fi capability. We know that our users are aware of the Wi-Fi availability and the AT&T brand on our hotspots. We know demand is coming from our customers. They
appreciate just being able to connect everywhere." Aaron Coleman, director of product management, AT&T Wi-Fi Services
OVER 32K HOTSPOTS
IN THE US
OVER 402K HOTSPOTS
WORLDWIDE
HOTSPOTS IN MORE
THAN 100 COUNTRIES
2.7 B CONNECTIONS
IN 2012
80%
CONNECTIONS MADE BY AT&T MOBILITY CUSTOMERS
Source: AT&T 2013
1 2
3
DEPLOY WI-FI IN HOTSPOTS FORM INTERNATIONAL
ROAMING AGREEMENTS
ENCOURAGE CELLULAR SUBSCRIBERS TO USE WI-FI
FREE
FREE, UNLIMITED
ACCESS
AUTOMATIC
CONNECTIONS DOES NOT COUNT AGAINST
MOBILE DATA PLAN
4 THE RESULTS
MORE SPECTRUM
COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
8
COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
CARRIER GRADE Wi-Fi HOTSPOT 2.0 & ANDSF
Wi-Fi@Home
Homespots
Private Hotspots
Metro Hotspots
Citynets
Mi-Fi
Carrier Cloud
Internet IP edge
WLAN
Gateway
Wireless packet core
• Wi-Fi TO Wi-Fi & Wi-Fi TO 3G/4G INTERWORKING
• DEVICE SELECTS BEST Wi-Fi
• ACCESS BASED ON SIM – NO USER INTERVENTION
• AUTOMATICALLY DETECT ROAMING RELATIONSHIPS
MORE SPECTRUM
COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
9
COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
WHAT IS LTE
WHAT IS LTE & WHO IS DEPLOYING MARKET HAS MOVED – LAGGARDS WON’T BE REWARDED
SPECTRAL EFFICIENCY
LTE INCREASES CAPACITY, PEAK RATES & COVERAGE
• Increased link capacity
• Multiple-input, multiple-output UL & DL
• Collaborative MIMO (UL)
• Overcome multi-path interference
FLAT IP, SCALABLE
MIMO
INCREASED SPECTRAL
EFFICIENCY
• OFDMA (DL) / SC-FDMA (UL)
• Simplified Rx design, Cheaper UE
• Scalable - go beyond 5 MHz limitation
• Reduction in number of logical nodes
• Separation of user plane and control plane
• Backhaul based on IP / MPLS transport
FROM AN ERLANG TO BIT MODEL
WHO HAS DEPLOYED LTE IN NA
COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
10
COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
Source: Alcatel-Lucent
20% Volume
increase/day
Throughput (kbps)
Latency (ms)
Packet Loss (%)
3G
LTE
iPhone 5 Performance 3G vs LTE
347%
-53%
-40%
LTE PERFORMANCE IMPROVED CUSTOMER EXPERIENCE
SPECTRAL EFFICIENCY
COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
11
COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
MIGRATION TO LTE IS PAYING OFF DATA ARPU GROWING
LTE SUBSCRIBERS SPENDING MORE ON MOBILE DATA DRIVING HIGHER ARPU
Source: Mobidata
Average Usage by Technology
45%
23%
37%
60%
32%
45%
Japan South Korea US
Data ARPU as % of Total ARPU
2011 2013
Source: Alcatel-Lucent
Data Led
ARPU
Growth
SPECTRAL EFFICIENCY
COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
12
COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
DEPLOYING LTE WHY OVERLAY IS BETTER THEN CRAN
Overlay minimizes potentially costly disruptions
Overlay: better RF coverage, BBU capacity, less SW complexity, and greater flexibility in terms of coverage
NEED DEDICATED PERFORMANCE
CAP INVESTMENT IN 2G/3G
AVOID DISRUPTION OF
2G/3G NETWORKS
SPEED TO MARKET
Interoperability with other vendor equipment AVOID VENDOR
LOCK-IN
Respond quickly to market competition. Overlay is faster and easier to deploy than CRAN.
Cap 2G/3G spend and refarm spectrum towards a more cost effective 4G LTE network
SPECTRAL EFFICIENCY
COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
13
COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
VoLTE DEPLOYMENT CREATE A SINGLE NETWORK (4G) – SUNSET 2G/3G
Robust Header Control (RoHC) and Transmission Time Interval (TTI) bundling boost UE power at the cell edge.
VoLTE’s wide band enables HD voice with background noise filtration. Deposition OTTs.
HIGHER QoE (HD VOICE)
SIMULTANEOUS 4G VOICE AND DATA
BETTER CELL EDGE PERFORMANCE
GREATER SPECTRAL
EFFICIENCY
For a 10 MHz band, VoLTE offers as much as a 700% capacity gain vs. GSM CS voice.
Single antenna, lower cost, better battery life. No need to “fall back” to 3G speed.
REDUCE 2G/3G INVESTMENT BY OFFERING 4G VOICE & VIDEO OVER LTE - REFARM THE SPECTRUM
MORE SPECTRUM
COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
14
COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
CARRIER AGGREGATION FOR COMBINING MULTIPLE LTE CARRIERS
20 MHz
FREQ
CO-ORDINATED MULTI-POINT (COMP)
INTERFERENCE AVOIDANCE NETWORK MIMO
DL 300 Mb/s UL 75 Mb/s 20MHz 4x4 MIMO
DL 3 Gb/s
UL 1.5 Gb/s 100 MHz (CA) 8x8 MIMO
TARGETS FOR PEAK RATE
SON & HetNet ENHANCEMENTS (eICIC, Cov/Cap Optimization)
MIMO ENHANCEMENTS (MU, SU uplink and downlink)
REL 10, 11
LTE LTE-ADVANCED
20 MHz
SPECTRUM MAXIMIZATION: LTE-ADVANCED HIGHER THROUGHPUT, PEAK RATE, SPECTRAL EFFICIENCY
GREATER EXPERIENCE AND GREATER NETWORK EFFICIENCIES
SPECTRAL EFFICIENCY
COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
15
COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
SPECTRUM MAXIMIZATION: SMALL CELLS GREATER SPATIAL EFFICIENCY
RESIDENTIAL ENTERPRISE METRO
HOMES OFFICES PUBLIC PLACES
CONSUMER OWNED BUSINESS OWNED OPERATOR OWNED
PRIVATE INDOOR USE PRIVATE/PUBLIC INDOOR USE PUBLIC INDOOR/OUTDOOR USE
• UTILIZES EXISTING SPECTRUM
• COVERAGE & CAPACITY
• RAPIDLY DEPLOYABLE (PLUG
AND PLAY)
• IMPROVED CUSTOMER
LOYALTY
• LOWER COST TO SERVE
• INNOVATIVE APPLICATIONS
• PROVEN – COMMERCIALLY
DEPLOYED GLOBALLY
SPATIAL EFFICIENCY
COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
16
COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
2x
>10x
1.5-2x
MORE SPECTRUM
(Hz)
MORE SPECTRAL
EFFICIENCY (Bits/Sec/Hz)
MORE SPATIAL
EFFICIENCY (Bits/Sec/Hz/Sub)
INCREASE CAPACITY
QUENCHING THE MOBILE DATA THIRST
• Wi-Fi
• HOTSPOT 2.0 / ANDSF
• VoLTE (REFARM 2G/3G)
• AUCTIONS
• LTE
• LTE-ADVANCED
• VoLTE
• SMALL CELLS
COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
17
COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.