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CBRFCApril 2014
CUWCD Briefing/Meeting
1:30pm April 8, 2014
Ashley Nielson
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Outline
• March weather• Precipitation• Current snow conditions• Water supply forecasts• Upcoming weather• Peaks• Discussion
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Frequent storms in zonal (east to west) upper air flow pattern
Largest storm impacts:
Bear RiverUpper Green RiverYampa River
Dry again in the south (Duchesne, Virgin River, San Juan, Lower Colorado)
March 2014 Upper Air Pattern
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Winter Precipitation
77% 62% 120%
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Spring Precipitation
Duchesne = 69%
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Past 7 day Observed Precipitation
Observed % of Normal
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November 1 Model Soil Moisture
Blue/Green = above average/wet conditions
Red/Orange= below average/dry conditions
2013
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Snow
March 10, 2014 April 7, 2014
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Snow: Satellite Derived Snow Cover Grids
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Snow
107% of median
148% of median
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Snow
119% of median 110% of median
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Snow
77 % of median
83% of median
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April 1st Water Supply Forecasts
91KAF91% 86 KAF
80%
72 KAF64%
36KAF51%
72 KAF97%
193 KAF60%
106 KAF84%
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Forecast TrendChange in the forecast % of average between March 1st and April 1st
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Forecasts: Daily ESP w/ Forecast
Daily ESP Forecast Official Forecast10%50%
90%
x
Observed data
ESP will be a combination of forecast + observed to date
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Forecasts: Provo
April 1 Forecast: 10% - 123 KAF 50% - 100 KAF (91% Average) 90% - 84 KAF
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Forecasts:Duchesne
April 1 Forecast: 10% - 55 KAF 50% - 36 KAF (51% Average) 90% - 24 KAF
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Forecasts:Duchesne
April 1 Forecast: 10% - 100 KAF 50% - 72 KAF (64% Average) 90% - 55 KAF
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Forecasts: Duchesne
April 1 Forecast: 10% - 18 KAF 50% - 14 KAF (73% Average) 90% - 9.7KAF
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Forecasts:Duchesne
April 1 Forecast: 10% - 89 KAF 50% - 72 KAF (97% Average) 90% - 58 KAF
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Upcoming Weather: Short term warm and dry. Increasing chance of precipitation mid April
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5-Day Precipitation Forecast
www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov
April 8 -13
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Long Term Precipitation OutlookClimate Prediction Center
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
April 2014 April-June 2014
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Spring Temperature OutlookClimate Prediction Center
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
April 2014 April-June 2014
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ENSO Update
Web Reference: iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO
60%
• Tend to develop during the period Apr-June• Tend to reach their maximum strength during Dec-Feb • Typically persist for 9-12 months, though occasionally persisting for up to 2 years • Typically recur every 2 to 7 years
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• Soil Moisture Impacts– Snow conditions more important at this point– Positive in high elevation basin such as Upper Stillwater, Lake Fork– Negative lower elevation basins (Strawberry, Starvation, Great Basin)
• Snow – Snow near normal (Western Uintas)– Conditions deteriorate moving eastward– Early April storm improved conditions (entire storm not included in
forecasts)
• Forecasts– All forecasts below average – Forecasts better for high elevation basins
• Weather: Warm and Dry for the near future– Better change of precip next week
Summary
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Where to Find Peak Flow Forecasts
• Map: – http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/gmap/gmapbeta.php?interf
ace=peak
• Special Product (Unreg/Reg)– http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/outgoing/cuwcd_peaks/cuwcd_peakf
cst_20140401.txt
• List: – http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/rmap/peak/peaklist.php
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Green = Low probability of reaching flood flow
Red = High probability of reaching flood flow
Peak Map
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Peak List
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Special Peak Product
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Normal time of peak
Minimum peak of record
Max peak of record
010%
25%50%75%90%
Forecast Probabilities
Flood Flow
Bankfull Flow
Current year observed daily streamflow to date
Forecast Issuance Date
Select to plot min and max year hydrographs
Select to plot all historical peaks
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Peaks: Strawberry
10%: 650 cfs50%: 400 cfs (44%)90%: 250 cfs
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Peaks: Currant Creek
10%: 330 cfs50%: 240cfs (79% of average)90%: 150 cfs
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Peaks: Upper Stillwater
10%: 1400 cfs50%: 1000 cfs (82% of average) 90%: 700 cfs
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Peaks: Big Brush
10%: 280 cfs50%: 160 cfs (68% of average)90%: 90 cfs
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Discussion
• Forecast discussion• CUWCD Operations discussion• Next briefing date?
– May 7th? Or 8th 1:30 pm
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Ashley Nielson
CBRFC HydrologistPhone: 801.524.5130
Email: [email protected]
Feedback, Questions, Concerns always welcome….