Catastrophic Losses and Other Mega-Trends Impacting the P/C Insurance Industry Today
Ohio Insurance Education DayColumbus, OHApril 9, 2014
Download at www.iii.org/presentationsRobert P. Hartwig, Ph.D., CPCU, President & Economist
Insurance Information Institute 110 William Street New York, NY 10038Tel: 212.346.5520 Cell: 917.453.1885 [email protected] www.iii.org
2
P/C Insurance Industry Financial Overview
2013: Best Year in the Post-Crisis Era
Performance Improved with Lower CATs, Strong Markets
2
P/C Net Income After Taxes1991–2013:Q3 ($ Millions)
2005 ROE*= 9.6% 2006 ROE = 12.7% 2007 ROE = 10.9% 2008 ROE = 0.1% 2009 ROE = 5.0% 2010 ROE = 6.6% 2011 ROAS1 = 3.5% 2012 ROAS1 = 5.9% 2013:9M ROAS1 = 9.5%
• ROE figures are GAAP; 1Return on avg. surplus. Excluding Mortgage & Financial Guaranty insurers yields a 8.9% ROAS through 2013:Q3, 6.2% ROAS in 2012, 4.7% ROAS for 2011, 7.6% for 2010 and 7.4% for 2009.
Sources: A.M. Best, ISO, Insurance Information Institute
$1
4,1
78
$5
,84
0
$1
9,3
16
$1
0,8
70
$2
0,5
98
$2
4,4
04 $3
6,8
19
$3
0,7
73
$2
1,8
65
$3
,04
6
$3
0,0
29
$6
2,4
96
$3
,04
3
$3
5,2
04
$1
9,4
56 $
33
,52
2
$4
3,0
29
$2
8,6
72
-$6,970
$6
5,7
77
$4
4,1
55
$2
0,5
59
$3
8,5
01
-$10,000
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
$80,000
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13:9M
2013:9M ROAS
was 9.5%
Net income is up substantially
(+54.7%) from 2012:Q3 $27.8B
4
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 1213
:9M
Net Premium Growth: Annual Change, 1971—2013:Q3
(Percent)1975-78 1984-87 2000-03
Shaded areas denote “hard market” periodsSources: A.M. Best (historical and forecast), ISO, Insurance Information Institute.
Net Written Premiums Fell 0.7% in 2007 (First Decline
Since 1943) by 2.0% in 2008, and 4.2% in 2009, the First 3-Year Decline Since 1930-33.
2013:9M = 4.2%
2012 growth was +4.3%
5
Direct Premiums Written: Total P/CPercent Change by State, 2007-2012*
58
.4
25
.4
24
.5
21
.0
19
.2
17
.6
16
.3
13
.2
13
.2
12
.4
9.9
9.2
9.2
8.5
8.0
6.2
5.8
5.2
4.5
4.4
4.3
4.3
4.2
4.0
3.8
3.6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
ND
SD
OK
NE IA KS
VT
AK
TX
WY
MN
AR
TN IN W
I
KY
MT
OH LA
VA
NJ
MI
SC
CO
MO
NM
Pe
ce
nt
ch
an
ge
(%
)
Sources: SNL Financial LC.; Insurance Information Institute.
Top 25 States
North Dakota was the country’s growth leader over the past 5 years with premiums written
expanding by 58.4%
6
Direct Premiums Written: Total P/CPercent Change by State, 2007-2012*
3.6
3.1
3.0
2.9
2.7
2.2
2.1
2.1
2.0
1.8
1.1
0.0
-0.1
-0.3
-0.7
-0.9
-2.8
-5.6
-6.0
-7.2
-7.2
-9.3
-10
.1
-11
.2
-12
.5
-17
.3
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
CT
MS
NC AL
MD PA
U.S
.
MA IL
WA
GA
UT
NH RI
ID ME
NY FL
CA
DC
WV HI
AZ
OR
DE
NV
Pe
ce
nt
ch
an
ge
(%
)
Bottom 25 States
Sources: SNL Financial LC.; Insurance Information Institute.
Growth was negative in 13 states and DC between
2007 and 2012
Property/Casualty Insurance Industry Investment Income: 2000–2013*1
$38.9$37.1 $36.7
$38.7
$54.6
$51.2
$47.1 $47.6$49.2
$47.7$45.8
$39.6
$49.5
$52.3
$30
$40
$50
$60
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13*
Investment Income Fell in 2012 and is Falling in 2013 Due to Persistently Low Interest Rates, Putting Additional Pressure on (Re) Insurance Pricing
1 Investment gains consist primarily of interest and stock dividends..*Estimate based on annualized actual 9M:2013 investment income of $34.338B.Sources: ISO; Insurance Information Institute.
($ Billions)
Investment earnings are running below their 2007
pre-crisis peak
8
U.S. Treasury Security Yields:A Long Downward Trend, 1990–2014*
*Monthly, constant maturity, nominal rates, through February 2014.Sources: Federal Reserve Bank at http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/data.htm. National Bureau of Economic Research (recession dates); Insurance Information Institute.
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
'90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14
Recession2-Yr Yield10-Yr Yield
Yields on 10-Year U.S. Treasury Notes have been essentially below 5% for a full decade.
Since roughly 80% of P/C bond/cash investments are in 10-year or shorter durations, most P/C insurer portfolios will have low-yielding bonds for years to come.
U.S. Treasury yields plunged to historic lows in
2013. Only longer-term yields have rebounded.
8
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
:Q3
Profitability Peaks & Troughs in the P/C Insurance Industry, 1975 – 2013:Q3*
*Profitability = P/C insurer ROEs. 2011-13 figures are estimates based on ROAS data. Note: Data for 2008-2013 exclude mortgage and financial guaranty insurers.Source: Insurance Information Institute; NAIC, ISO, A.M. Best.
1977:19.0% 1987:17.3%
1997:11.6%2006:12.7%
1984: 1.8% 1992: 4.5%2001: -1.2%
10 Years
10 Years9 Years
2011: 4.7%
History suggests next ROE peak will be in 2016-2017
ROE
1975: 2.4%
2013:Q3 8.9%
10
ROE: Property/Casualty Insurance vs. Fortune 500, 1987–2013E*
* Excludes Mortgage & Financial Guarantee in 2008 – 2013E. 2013 P/C ROE is through 2013:Q3. Sources: ISO, Fortune; Insurance Information Institute.
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13E
P/C Profitability Is Both by Cyclicality and Ordinary Volatility
Hugo
Andrew
Northridge
Lowest CAT Losses in 15 Years
Sept. 11
Katrina, Rita, Wilma
4 Hurricanes
Financial Crisis*
(Percent)
Record Tornado Losses
Sandy
A 100 Combined Ratio Isn’t What ItOnce Was: Investment Impact on ROEs
Combined Ratio / ROE
* 2008 -2013 figures are return on average surplus and exclude mortgage and financial guaranty insurers. 2013:9M combined ratio including M&FG insurers is 95.8; 2012 =103.2, 2011 = 108.1, ROAS = 3.5%. Source: Insurance Information Institute from A.M. Best and ISO Verisk Analytics data.
97.5
100.6 100.1 100.8
92.7
101.299.5
101.0
96.6
102.4
106.5
95.7
14.3%
15.9%
12.7%
10.9%
7.4% 7.9%
4.7%6.2%9.6%
8.8%
4.3%
8.9%
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
1978 1979 2003 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013:9M0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
18%
Combined Ratio ROE*
Combined Ratios Must Be Lower in Today’s DepressedInvestment Environment to Generate Risk Appropriate ROEs
A combined ratio of about 100 generates an ROE of ~7.0% in 2012, ~7.5% ROE in 2009/10,
10% in 2005 and 16% in 1979
Lower CATs are improved ROEs
in 2013
12
RNW All Lines by State, 2003-2012 Average:Highest 25 States
21
.0
17
.7
15
.1
14
.8
13
.4
13
.3
13
.1
12
.6
12
.0
11
.7
11
.4
11
.4
11
.4
11
.1
11
.0
11
.0
11
.0
10
.9
10
.9
10
.7
10
.7
10
.5
10
.3
10
.3
9.9
9.4
02468
1012141618202224
HI AK ND ME WY UT VT ID WA NH IA NE SC DC MA OR VA NC RI CA CT OH NM SD WV MT
Source: NAIC.
The most profitable states over the past decade are
widely distributed geographically, though none
are in the Gulf region
13
9.2
9.1
8.9
8.9
8.6
8.5
8.3
8.1
7.9
7.7
7.7
7.6
7.4
6.5
6.5
6.1
6.1
5.5
5.2
4.9
4.9
4.2
3.2
2.0
-6.5
-9.4
-14-12-10-8-6-4-202468
10
KS MD CO WI FL MN TX IN US AR PA IL AZ MO NV KY NJ GA NY MI TN DE OK AL MS LA
RNW All Lines by State, 2003-2012 Average: Lowest 25 States
Source: NAIC.
Some of the least profitable states over the past decade were hit hard
by catastrophes
14
Profitability and Growth in the Ohio P/C Insurance
Markets
Analysis by Line and Nearby State Comparisons
15
RNW All Lines: OH vs. U.S., 2003-2012
Sources: NAIC; Insurance Information Institute.
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
US All Lines OH All Lines
(Percent)
Average 2003-2012US: 7.9%
OH: 10.5%
Hurricanes Katrina, Rita, Wilma and others dragged down US
profitability but OH was spared
Remnants of Hurricane Ike caused $500 mill
damage in OH
16
RNW PP Auto: OH vs. U.S., 2003-2012
Sources: NAIC; Insurance Information Institute.
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
US PP Auto OH PP Auto
Average 2003-2012US: 7.6%
OH: 11.4%
17
RNW Comm. Auto: OH vs. U.S., 2003-2012
Sources: NAIC; Insurance Information Institute.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
US Comm Auto OH Comm Auto
(Percent)
Average 2003-2012US: 9.8%
OH: 17.9%
18
RNW Comm. Multi-Peril: OH vs. U.S., 2003-2012
Sources: NAIC; Insurance Information Institute.
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
US Comm M-P OH Comm M-P
(Percent)
Average 2003-2012US: 9.0%
OH: 11.0%
19
RNW Homeowners: OH vs. U.S., 2003-2012
Sources: NAIC; Insurance Information Institute.
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
US HO OH HO
(Percent)
Average 2003-2012US: 6.0%OH: -4.3%
High cat losses are one reason why OH’s
homeowners line has been unprofitable over
the past decade
All Lines: 10-Year Average RNW OH & Nearby States
6.1%
7.9%
8.1%
9.9%
10.5%
4.9%
7.7%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%
Ohio
West Virginia
Indiana
U.S.
Pennsylvania
Kentucky
Michigan
Sources: NAIC; Insurance Information Institute.
2003-2012
Ohio All Lines profitability is
above the US and regional average
PP Auto: 10-Year Average RNW OH & Nearby States
5.7%
7.6%
9.6%
9.6%
11.4%
-2.4%
7.6%
-5% 0% 5% 10% 15%
Ohio
Indiana
West Virginia
U.S.
Pennsylvania
Kentucky
Michigan
Sources: NAIC; Insurance Information Institute.
2003-2012
Ohio PP Auto profitability is above the US and regional
average
22
Top Ten Most Expensive And Least Expensive States For Automobile Insurance, 2011 (1)
RankMost
expensive statesAverage
expenditure RankLeast
expensive statesAverage
expenditure
1 New Jersey $1,183.95 1 Idaho $525.15
2 District of Columbia 1,138.03 2 South Dakota 540.04
3 Louisiana 1,110.68 3 North Dakota 549.81
4 New York 1,108.64 4 Iowa 552.54
5 Florida 1,090.65 5 Maine 577.38
6 Delaware 1,052.28 6 North Carolina 600.33
7 Rhode Island 1,004.14 7 Wisconsin 601.40
8 Michigan 983.60 8 Nebraska 602.57
9 Connecticut 970.22 9 Wyoming 619.88
10 Maryland 956.17 10 Ohio 619.96
(1) Based on average automobile insurance expenditures.
Source: © 2013 National Association of Insurance Commissioners.
Ohio ranked 10th as the least expensive state in 2011, with an average expenditure for auto insurance of $619.96.
Comm. Auto: 10-Year Average RNW OH & Nearby States
8.0%
9.4%
9.8%
11.6%
17.9%
7.2%
8.7%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
Ohio
Indiana
U.S.
Pennsylvania
West Virginia
Kentucky
Michigan
Sources: NAIC; Insurance Information Institute.
2003-2012
Ohio Commercial Auto profitability is above the US and regional average
Comm. M-P: 10-Year Average RNW OH & Nearby States
6.6%
9.0%
9.4%
11.0%
14.4%
5.5%
7.9%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
Michigan
Ohio
Pennsylvania
U.S.
Kentucky
West Virginia
Indiana
Sources: NAIC; Insurance Information Institute.
2003-2012
Ohio Commercial Multi-Peril
profitability is above the US average and the regional average
Homeowners: 10-Year Average RNW OH & Nearby States
-4.3%
6.0%
8.4%
10.0%
11.0%
-6.6%
-2.6%
-10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%
Michigan
Pennsylvania
West Virginia
U.S.
Indiana
Ohio
Kentucky
Sources: NAIC; Insurance Information Institute.
2003-2012
Ohio Homeowners profitability is below the US average and the regional average
26
Top Ten Most Expensive And Least Expensive States For Homeowners Insurance, 2011 (1)
Rank Most
expensive statesHO average
premium RankLeast
expensive statesHO average premium
1 Florida $1,933 1 Idaho $518
2 Louisiana 1,672 2 Oregon 559
3 Texas (2) 1,578 3 Utah 563
4 Mississippi 1,409 4 Wisconsin 592
5 Oklahoma 1,386 5 Washington 626
6 Alabama 1,163 6 Ohio 644
7 Rhode Island 1,139 7 Delaware 664
8 Kansas 1,103 8 Arizona 675
9 New York 1,097 9 Nevada 689
10 Connecticut 1,096 10 Iowa 713
(1) Includes policies written by Citizens Property Insurance Corp. (Florida) and Citizens Property Insurance Corp. (Louisiana), Alabama Insurance Underwriting Association, Mississippi Windstorm Underwriting Association, North Carolina Joint Underwriting Association and South Carolina Wind and Hail Underwriting Association. Other southeastern states have wind pools in operation and their data may not be included in this chart. Based on the HO-3 homeowner package policy for owner-occupied dwellings, 1 to 4 family units. Provides “all risks” coverage (except those specifically excluded in the policy) on buildings and broad named-peril coverage on personal property, and is the most common package written.
(2) The Texas Department of Insurance developed home insurance policy forms that are similar but not identical to the standard forms. In addition, due to the Texas Windstorm Association (which writes wind-only policies) classifying HO-1, 2 and 5 premiums as HO-3, the average premium for homeowners insurance is artificially high.
Note: Average premium=Premiums/exposure per house years. A house year is equal to 365 days of insured coverage for a single dwelling. The NAIC does not rank state average expenditures and does not endorse any conclusions drawn from this data.Source: ©2013 National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC). Reprinted with permission. Further reprint or distribution strictly prohibited without written permission of NAIC.
Ohio ranked as the 6th least expensive state for homeowners insurance in 2011, with an average expenditure of $644.
27
All Lines DWP Growth: OH vs. U.S., 2003-2012
Source: SNL Financial.
9.9%
7.5%
2.3% 3.
4%
0.5%
-2.1
%
-3.3
%
0.0%
3.7% 4.
6%
9.1%
3.0%
-1.3
%
-0.7
%
-1.8
%
-0.1
%
-1.5
%
-0.3
%
3.2% 3.9%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
US DWP: All Lines OH DWP: All Lines
(Percent)
Average 2003-2012US: 2.6%OH: 1.3%
28
Comm. Lines DWP Growth: OH vs. U.S., 2003-2012
Source: SNL Financial.
11
.4%
9.7
%
3.2
%
4.9
%
-0.3
%
-3.8
%
-7.3
% -2.5
%
5.1
%
5.1
%
12
.0%
2.6
%
-1.8
%
-0.2
%
-2.2
%
-0.3
%
-5.1
%
-3.5
%
5.0
%
2.9
%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
US DWP: Comm. Lines OH DWP: Comm. Lines
(Percent)
Average 2003-2012US: 2.5%OH: 0.9%
29
Personal Lines DWP Growth: OH vs. U.S., 2003-2012
Source: SNL Financial.
9.3
%
5.2
%
2.0
%
2.6
%
1.2
%
-0.1
%
1.1
% 2.5
%
2.2
% 4.2
%
7.9
%
3.7
%
0.1
%
-1.0
%
-1.5
%
-0.1
%
1.7
%
2.3
%
1.7
% 4.5
%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
US DWP: Personal Lines OH DWP: Personal Lines
(Percent)
Average 2003-2012US: 3.0%OH: 2.0%
30
Private Passenger Auto DWP Growth: OH vs. U.S., 2003-2012
Source: SNL Financial.
7.9%
3.7%
0.1% 0.8%
0.0%
-0.4
%
-0.1
%
1.5%
3.5%
6.1%
1.5%
-1.3
%
-2.0
%
-2.6
%
-1.5
%
-0.2
%
1.0%
0.4%
3.4%
1.5%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
US DWP: PP Auto OH DWP: PP Auto
(Percent)
Average 2003-2012US: 1.9%OH: 0.5%
31
Homeowner’s MP DWP Growth: OH vs. U.S., 2003-2012
Source: SNL Financial.
13
.8%
10
.4%
7.4
%
7.4
%
4.2
%
0.5
%
3.8
% 4.9
%
3.8
% 5.7
%
14
.7%
11
.2%
3.9
%
2.0
%
1.5
%
3.6
%
6.3
%
5.4
%
4.6
%
6.9
%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
US DWP: HO Lines OH DWP: HO Lines
(Percent)
Average 2003-2012US: 6.2%OH: 6.0%
32
U.S. Insured Catastrophe Loss Update
2013 Was a Welcome Respite from the High Catastrophe Losses in Recent Years
2014 Winter Storm Losses Manageable
32
33
$1
2.6
$1
1.0
$3
.8
$1
4.3
$1
1.6
$6
.1
$3
4.7
$7
.6
$1
6.3
$3
3.7
$7
3.4
$1
0.5
$7
.5
$2
9.2
$1
1.5
$1
4.4
$3
3.6
$3
5.0
$1
2.8
$1
4.0
$4
.8
$8
.0
$3
7.8
$8
.8
$2
6.4
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13*
U.S. Insured Catastrophe Losses
*Through 12/31/13.Note: 2001 figure includes $20.3B for 9/11 losses reported through 12/31/01 ($25.9B 2011 dollars). Includes only business and personal property claims, business interruption and auto claims. Non-prop/BI losses = $12.2B ($15.6B in 2011 dollars.) Sources: Property Claims Service/ISO; Insurance Information Institute.
2012 Was the 3rd Highest Year on Record for Insured Losses in U.S. History on an Inflation-Adj. Basis. 2011 Losses Were the 6th Highest. YTD 2013 Running Well
Below 2011 and 2012 YTD Totals.
2012 was the third most expensive year ever for insured CAT
losses
Record tornado losses caused
2011 CAT losses to surge
($ Billions, $ 2012)
33
34
Combined Ratio Points Associated with Catastrophe Losses: 1960 – 2013*
*2010s represent 2010-2013.Notes: Private carrier losses only. Excludes loss adjustment expenses and reinsurance reinstatement premiums. Figures are adjusted for losses ultimately paid by foreign insurers and reinsurers.Source: ISO (1960-2011); A.M. Best (2012E) Insurance Information Institute.
0.4
1.2
0.4 0.
8 1.3
0.3
0.4 0.
71.
51.
00.
40.
4 0.7
1.8
1.1
0.6
1.4 2.
01.
3 2.0
0.5
0.5 0.7
3.0
1.2
2.1
8.8
2.3
5.9
3.3
2.8
1.0
3.6
2.9
1.6
5.4
1.6
3.3
3.3
8.1
2.7
1.6
5.0
2.6
3.4
8.7 8.9
3.43.6
0.9
0.1
1.1
1.1
0.8
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
The Catastrophe Loss Component of Private Insurer Losses Has Increased Sharply in Recent Decades
Avg. CAT Loss Component of the Combined Ratio
by Decade
1960s: 1.04 1970s: 0.85 1980s: 1.31 1990s: 3.39 2000s: 3.52 2010s: 6.1E*
Combined Ratio Points Catastrophe losses as a share of all losses reached
a record high in 2012
Homeowners Insurance Combined Ratio: 1990–2015F
11
3.0
11
7.7
15
8.4
11
3.6
10
1.0 10
9.4
10
8.2
11
1.4 1
21
.7
10
9.3
98
.2
94
.4 10
0.3
89
.0 95
.7
11
6.9
10
5.8
10
6.7
12
2.2
10
4.4
10
1.7
10
1.2
10
0.7
11
8.4
11
2.7 12
1.7
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12E13F 14F 15F
1
Homeowners Performance in 2011/12 Impacted by Large Cat Losses. Extreme Regional Variation Can Be Expected Due to
Local Catastrophe Loss Activity
Sources: A.M. Best (1990-2011);Conning (2012E-2015F); Insurance Information Institute. 35
Hurricane Ike
Hurricane Sandy
Record tornado activity
Hurricane Andrew
36
Top 10 States for InsuredCatastrophe Losses, 2013
$1,995
$1,509
$1,190
$909 $907$805 $773 $762
$677$593
0200400600800
1,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,000
Okl
ahoma
Texas
Illin
ois
Min
nesota
Colora
do
Mis
siss
ippi
Nebra
ska
Geo
rgia
India
na
Louisia
na
Source: The Property Claim Services (PCS) unit of ISO, a Verisk Analytics company.
$ Millions
Oklahoma let the country in insured CAT losses in 2013
37
$9,756
$6,369
$2,318$1,511 $1,440
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
New York New Jersey Texas Kentucky Colorado
*Includes catastrophe losses of at least $25 million.Sources: PCS unit of ISO; Insurance Information Institute.
Top 5 States by Insured Catastrophe Losses in 2012*
NY and NJ let the US in CAT losses in 2012 due Sandy
(2012, $ Billions)
Insurers Making a Difference in Impacted Communities
Source: Insurance Information Institute 38
Destroyed home in Tuscaloosa. Insurers will pay some 165,000 claims totaling $2 billion in the Tuscaloosa/
Birmingham areas alone.
Presentation of a check to Tuscaloosa Mayor Walt
Maddox to the Tuscaloosa Storm Recovery Fund
Presentation of a check to Moore, OK,
Public School Relief Fund
39
Top States by Inflation-Adjusted Insured Catastrophe Losses, 1983–2012
9.0%
10.4%
14.3%66.3%
Source: PCS unit of ISO, Verisk Company.; Insurance Information Institute.
Over the Past 30 Years Florida Has Accounted for the Largest Share of Catastrophe Losses in the U.S., Followed by Texas and Louisiana
Rest of the U.S.$309.9BFlorida
$66.7B
Texas$48.8B
Louisiana$42.0B
Total: $467.5 Billion, an average of
$16.6B per year or $1.3B per month
FL is the most costly state for
CATs, with nearly $67B in insured losses
over the past 30 years
40
Inflation Adjusted U.S. Catastrophe Losses by Cause of Loss, 1993–20121
0.1%
1.7%
3.8%4.7%
6.3%
7.1%
36.0%
40.4%
1. Catastrophes are defined as events causing direct insured losses to property of $25 million or more in 2012 dollars.2. Excludes snow.3. Does not include NFIP flood losses4. Includes wildland fires5. Includes civil disorders, water damage, utility disruptions and non-property losses such as those covered by workers compensation.Source: ISO’s Property Claim Services Unit.
Hurricanes & Tropical Storms, $158.2
Fires (4), $6.5
Tornadoes (2), $140.9
Winter Storms, $27.8
Terrorism, $24.8
Geological Events, $18.4
Wind/Hail/Flood (3), $14.9
Other (5), $0.2
Wind losses are by far cause the most catastrophe losses,
even if hurricanes/TS are excluded.
Tornado share of CAT losses is
rising
Insured cat losses from 1993-2012
totaled $391.7B, an average of $19.6B per year or $1.6B
per month
41
Top 16 Most Costly Disastersin U.S. History
(Insured Losses, 2012 Dollars, $ Billions)
$7.8 $8.7 $9.2 $11.1$13.4$18.8
$23.9 $24.6$25.6
$48.7
$7.5$7.1$6.7$5.6$5.6$4.4
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
Irene (2011) Jeanne(2004)
Frances(2004)
Rita (2005)
Tornadoes/T-Storms
(2011)
Tornadoes/T-Storms
(2011)
Hugo (1989)
Ivan (2004)
Charley(2004)
Wilma(2005)
Ike (2008)
Sandy*(2012)
Northridge(1994)
9/11 Attack(2001)
Andrew(1992)
Katrina(2005)
Hurricane Sandy became the 5th
costliest event in US insurance history
Hurricane Irene became the 12th most expense hurricane
in US history in 2011
Includes Tuscaloosa, AL,
tornado
Includes Joplin, MO, tornado
12 of the 16 Most Expensive Events in US History Have
Occurred Over the Past Decade
*PCS estimate as of 4/12/13.Sources: PCS; Insurance Information Institute inflation adjustments to 2012 dollars using the CPI.
42
Top 16 Most Costly World Insurance Losses, 1970-2013*
(Insured Losses, 2012 Dollars, $ Billions)
*Figures do not include federally insured flood losses.**Estimate based on PCS value of $18.75B as of 4/12/13.Sources: Munich Re; Swiss Re; Insurance Information Institute research.
$11.1$13.4 $13.4$13.4$18.8
$23.9 $24.6$25.6
$38.6
$48.7
$7.8 $8.1 $8.5 $8.7 $9.2 $9.6
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
Hugo (1989)
WinterStormDaria(1991)
ChileQuake(2010)
Ivan (2004)
Charley(2004)
TyphoonMirielle(1991)
Wilma(2005)
ThailandFloods(2011)
NewZealandQuake(2011)
Ike (2008)
Sandy(2012)**
Northridge(1994)
WTC TerrorAttack(2001)
Andrew(1992)
JapanQuake,
Tsunami(2011)**
Katrina(2005)
5 of the top 14 most expensive catastrophes in
world history have occurred within the past 3 years
(2010-2012)
Hurricane Sandy is now the 6th costliest event in global
insurance history
2012 insured CAT Losses totaled $60B; Economic losses totaled $140B, according to Swiss Re
44
Top 12 Most Costly Hurricanesin U.S. History
(Insured Losses, 2012 Dollars, $ Billions)
*PCS estimate as of 4/12/13.Sources: PCS; Insurance Information Institute inflation adjustments to 2012 dollars using the CPI.
$9.2 $11.1$13.4
$18.8
$25.6
$48.7
$8.7$7.8$6.7$5.6$5.6$4.4
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
Irene(2011)
Jeanne(2004)
Frances(2004)
Rita (2005)
Hugo (1989)
Ivan (2004)
Charley(2004)
Wilma(2005)
Ike (2008)
Sandy*(2012)
Andrew(1992)
Katrina(2005)
Hurricane Sandy became the 3rd costliest hurricane in US
insurance historyHurricane Irene
became the 12th most expensive hurricane in US history in 2011
10 of the 12 most costly hurricanes in insurance history occurred over the past 9 years (2004—2012)
45
Total Value of Insured Coastal Exposure in 2012
(2012, $ Billions)
Source: AIR Worldwide
$293.5$239.3
$182.3$164.6$163.5
$118.2$106.7$81.9$64.0$60.6$58.3
$17.3
$567.8$713.9
$849.6$1,175.3
$2,862.3$2,923.1
$0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 $3,500
New YorkFloridaTexas
MassachusettsNew JerseyConnecticut
LouisianaS. Carolina
VirginiaMaine
North CarolinaAlabamaGeorgia
DelawareNew Hampshire
MississippiRhode Island
Maryland
In 2012, New York Ranked as the #1 Most Exposed State to Hurricane Loss, Overtaking Florida with $2.862 Trillion. Texas is very exposed too, and
ranked #3 with $1.175 Trillionin insured coastal exposure
The Insured Value of All Coastal Property Was $10.6 Trillion in 2012 , Up 20% from $8.9 Trillion in 2007 and
Up 48% from $7.2 Trillion in 2004
NY and FL lead the US in the value of insured coastal exposure at $2.9 Trillion
47Sources: Munich Re NatCatSERVICE; Insurance Information Institute.
Winter Storm and Winter Damage Events in the US and Canada, 1980-2013 (2013 US$)
Three of the four most costly years ever for insured losses from
winter storms and damage occurred in the 1990s, led by the “Storm of the Century” in 1993.
Insured losses from
severe winter events
totaled $2 billion in
2013.
Insured winter storm and damage losses in Jan. 2014 already totaled $1.5 billion. Continued severe weather since then makes it likely that
2014 will become one of the top 5 costliest winters since 1980.
Insured Losses (Millions, $ 2013)
5-year running average
Period AreaEconomic Loss (in inflation-
adjusted 2013 $US mill)
Insured Loss (in inflation-adjusted 2013 $US mill) Fatalities
Mar. 11-14, 1993 CAN, USA 8,061 3,224 270
Dec. 17-30,1983 USA 2,339 2,058 500
Apr. 13-17, 2007 CAN, USA 2,247 1,775 23
Dec. 10-13, 1992 USA 4,981 1,660 19
Jan. 5-12, 1998 CAN, USA 4,145 1,644 45
Feb. 10-12, 1994 USA 4,716 1,258 9
Jan. 17-20, 1994 USA 1,572 1,258 70
Apr. 7-11, 2013 USA 1,600 1,200 N/A
Jan. 1-4, 1999 CAN, USA 1,398 1,084 25
Jan. 31-Feb. 2, 2011 USA 1,346 1,010 36
*Top 10 events in original insured loss dollars were adjusted to and ranked by the Insurance Information Institute to 2013 inflation-adjusted values.Sources: Munich Re NatCatSERVICE; Insurance Information Institute.
Top 10 Winter Storm and Winter Damage Events in the US and Canada, 1980-2013*
Ranked by Insured Loss, in Millions of $ 2013*
As of December 31, 2013
Number of Events Fatalities
Estimated Overall Losses (US $m)
Estimated Insured Losses (US $m)
SevereThunderstorm
69 110 16,341 10,274
Winter Storm 11 43 2,935 1,895
Flood 19 23 1,929 240
Earthquake & Geophysical
6 1 Minor Minor
Tropical Cyclone 1 1 Minor Minor
Wildfire, Heat, & Drought
22 29 620 385
Totals 128 207 21,825 12,794
Natural Disaster Losses in the United States, by Type, 2013
50Source: Munich Re NatCatSERVICE 50
U.S. Thunderstorm Insured Loss Trends, 1980 – 2013
52Source: Property Claims Service, and MR NatCatSERVICE
Thunderstorm losses in 2013 totaled $10.3 billion, the 6th
highest on record
Average thunderstorm
losses are up 7 fold since the early
1980s. The 5-year running average
loss is up sharply
Hurricanes get all the headlines, but thunderstorms are consistent
producers of large scale loss. 2008-2013 are the most expensive
years on record.
53
Insured Homeowners Losses Dueto Lightning, 2004-2012
$735.5
$819.6
$882.2
$942.4
$1,065.5
$798.0
$1,033.5
$952.5 $969.0
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
$1,000
$1,100
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: Insurance Information Institute.
The Increased Number and Value of Expensive Electronic Devices in Homes is Pushing the Total Lightning Claim Costs Up Even as
the Number of Lightning Claims Falls
$ Millions
Lightning claims cost insurers an estimated $969 million in 2012, 31.7% from $735.5
million in 2004
Nu
mb
er
Geophysical (earthquake, tsunami, volcanic activity)
Climatological (temperature extremes, drought, wildfire)
Meteorological (storm)
Hydrological (flood, mass movement)
Natural Disasters in the United States, 1980 – 2013Number of Events (Annual Totals 1980 – 2013)
Source: MR NatCatSERVICE 54
22
19
81
6
50
100
150
200
250
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
There were 128 natural disaster events in 2013
Number of Acres Burned in Wildfires, 1980 – 2013
Source: National Interagency Fire Center 55
TX experienced significant wildfire losses in 2011 (Bastrop fire insured losses ~$500 million)
Losses Due to Natural Disasters in the US, 1980–2013
56
Overall losses (in 2012 values) Insured losses (in 2013 values)
Source: MR NatCatSERVICE
(2013 Dollars, $ Billions) (Overall and Insured Losses)
50
100
150
200
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
2013 CAT Losses
Overall : $21.8B
Insured: $12.8B
Indicates a great deal of losses are uninsured (~40%-50% in the US) =
Growth Opportunity
2013 losses were far below 2011 and 2012 and were 44% lower
than the average from 2000-2012
The current 5-year average (2008 - 2013) insured tropical cyclone loss is $5.6 billion per year.
Insured US Tropical Cyclone Losses, 1980 - 2013
Sources: Property Claims Service, Munich Re NatCatSERVICE, NFIP 57
58
The combined ratios for both personal and commercial lines
improved substantially in 2013:H1
U.S. Residual Market: Total Policies In-Force (1990-2012) (000)
Source: PIPSO; Insurance Information Institute
931.6
1,785.0
1,458.1
1,196.5
1,741.7
2,841.4
3,311.83,227.3
2,479.4
1,319.7
2,621.32,780.6
1,642.3
2,840.4
2,209.32,203.9
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
1990 1995 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
(000)
Hurricane Andrew
4 Florida Hurricanes
Katrina, Rita and Wilma
In the 23-year period between 1990 and 2012, the total number of policies in-force in the residual market (FAIR & Beach/Windstorm) Plans has more than tripled.
Hurricane Sandy
59
U.S. Residual Market Exposure to Loss(1990-2012) ($ Billions)
Source: PIPSO; Insurance Information Institute (I.I.I.).
$281.8
$884.7
$757.9$818.1
$430.5$372.3
$54.7
$150.0
$292.0$244.2$221.3
$419.5
$656.7 $696.4
$771.9
$703.0
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
$1,000
1990 1995 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
($ Billions)
In the 23-year period between 1990 and 2012, total exposure to loss in the residual market (FAIR & Beach/Windstorm) Plans has surged from $54.7
billion in 1990 to $818.1 billion in 2012.
Hurricane Andrew
4 Florida Hurricanes
Katrina, Rita and Wilma
Hurricane Sandy
Homeowners Insurance Catastrophe-Related Claim Frequency and Severity, 1997—2012*
*All policy forms combined, countrywide.Source: Insurance Research Council, Trends in Homeowners Insurance Claims, Sept. 2012 from ISO Fast Track data. 60
Avg. catastrophe claim cost rose
approximately 200% from 1997-2011
Cat claim frequency in 2011 was at historic highs and more than
double the rate in 1997
Source: Munich Re Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – as of January 2014. 61
Geophysical events(earthquake, tsunami, volcanic activity)
Meteorological events (storm)
Hydrological events(flood, mass movement)
Climatological events(extreme temperature, drought, wildfire)
Extraterrestrial events(Meteorite impact)
880Loss events
EarthquakeChina, 20 April
Severe storms, tornadoesUSA, 18–22 May
FloodsIndia, 14–30 June
HailstormsGermany, 27–28 July
Winter Storm Christian (St. Jude)Europe, 27–30 October
Typhoon HaiyanPhilippines, 8–12 NovemberSevere storms, tornadoes
USA, 28–31 May
Hurricanes Ingrid & ManuelMexico, 12–19 September
FloodsCanada, 19–24 June
FloodsEurope, 30 May–19 June
Heat waveIndia, April–June
Typhoon FitowChina, Japan, 5–9 October
Earthquake (series)Pakistan, 24–28 September
FloodsAustralia, 21–31 January
Meteorite impactRussian Federation, 15 February
Flash floodsCanada, 8–9 July
FloodsUSA, 9–16 September
Geophysical events(earthquake, tsunami, volcanic activity)
Meteorological events (storm)
Selection of significant Natural catastrophes
Natural catastrophes Hydrological events(flood, mass movement)
Climatological events(extreme temperature, drought, wildfire)
Natural Loss Events:Full Year 2013
World Map
Geophysical (earthquake, tsunami, volcanic activity)
Climatological (temperature extremes, drought, wildfire)
Meteorological (storm)
Hydrological (flood, mass movement)
Natural Disasters Worldwide,1980 – 2013 (Number of Events)
Source: MR NatCatSERVICE62
Nu
mb
er
200
400
600
800
1 000
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
There were 880 natural disaster events globally in
2013 compared to 905 in 2012
Losses Due to Natural Disasters Worldwide, 1980–2013 (Overall & Insured Losses)
63
Overall losses (in 2013 values) Insured losses (in 2013 values)
Source: MR NatCatSERVICE
(2013 Dollars, $ Billions)(Overall and Insured Losses)
100
200
300
400
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
US$ bn
2013 Losses
Overall : $125B
Insured: $34B
There is a clear upward trend in both insured and overall losses over the past
30+ years
10-Yr. Avg. Losses
Overall : $184B
Insured: $56B
Flood Insurance
64
I.I.I. Survey: Public Conflicted on Flood• Flood Should Reflect True Risk
• Keep the Subsidies• Would Prefer to Purchase from
Private Insurers
65
$6,558$10,994
$44,563
$57,277
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
Homeowners* Vehicle Commercial NFIP Flood**
Commercial (i.e., business claims) are more expensive
because the value of property is often higher as well as the impact of insured business
interruption losses
*Includes rental and condo policies (excludes NFIP flood). **As of Oct. 31, 2013.Sources: Catastrophe loss data is for Catastrophe Serial No. 90 (Oct. 28 – 31, 2012) from PCS as of March 2013; Insurance Information Institute.
Hurricane Sandy: Average Claim Payment by Type of Claim
The average insured flood loss was nearly 9 times larger than the average non-flood insured loss
(mostly wind)
Post-Sandy, the I.I.I. worked very hard to make help media, consumers and regulators understand the distinction between a flood claim and a
standard homeowners claim. NFIP is $24B in debt.
66
Total Potential Home Value Exposure to Storm Surge Risk in 2013*
($ Billions)
*Insured and uninsured property. Based on estimated property values as of April 2013.Source: Storm Surge Report 2013, CoreLogic.
$65.2$51.0$50.3
$35.0$22.4$20.5
$15.9$10.4$7.2$4.7$3.1$2.7$2.6$0.6
$65.6$72.0$78.0
$118.8$135.0
$386.5
$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 $350 $400 $450
FloridaNew York
New JerseyVirginia
LouisianaS. CarolinaN. Carolina
TexasMassachusetts
ConnecticutMarylandGeorgia
DelawareMississippi
Rhode IslandAlabama
MaineNew
PennsylvaniaDC
The Value of Homes Exposed to Storm Surge was $1.147 Trillion in 2013.* Only a fraction of this is insured, hence the huge demand for federal aid
following major coastal flooding events.
Florida is by the state most vulnerable to storm surge.
69
I.I.I. Poll: Flood Insurance
Q. Do you think it is fair that flood insurance premium increases are higher if people who live in high flood risk areas and rebuild their homes do not elevate them?
Source: Insurance Information Institute Annual Pulse Survey.
Almost two-thirds of Americans think that it is fair that flood insurance premiums be raised for people who live in high flood risk areas and rebuild their homes after a flood but do not elevate them.
6%
63%
31%
Don’t know
Yes
No
70
I.I.I. Poll: Flood Insurance
Q. Do you think flood insurance premiums should reflect the risk of flooding no matter what the cost or do you think the government should subsidize the cost of flood insurance with taxpayers’ dollars?
Source: Insurance Information Institute Annual Pulse Survey (Nov. 2013).
Almost two-thirds of Americans think flood insurance premiums should be raised to reflect the risk of flooding.
9%
63%
28%
Don’t know
Premiums should reflect flood risk
Government should subsidize cost with taxpayers’ dollars
71
I.I.I. Poll: Flood Insurance
Q. The federal government provides insurance coverage at taxpayer-subsidized rates for damage from floods through the National Flood Insurance Plan. A new law eliminates the subsidy and raises rates. Do you think the rate increase should be repealed?
Source: Insurance Information Institute Annual Pulse Survey.
More than half of Americans polled for the November 2013 Pulse thought that hikes in National Flood Insurance premiums
should be repealed.
10%
55%36%
Don’t know
YesNo
It is inconsistent for the public to
support full-risk rates but maintain subsidies, but this
exactly mirrors Congressional
sentiments, with supporters of BW-12 and even Tea
Party conservatives supporting
continuation of the subsidies
72
I.I.I. Poll: Flood Insurance
Q. If the costs were similar, would you prefer to buy flood insurance from a private insurance company or from the federal government through the National Flood Insurance Program?
Source: Insurance Information Institute Annual Pulse Survey.
Six out of 10 Americans would prefer to buy flood insurance from a private insurance company as opposed to the federal government, if
costs were similar.
10%
64%
26%
Don’t know
Private insurance company
The federal government
through the NFIP
73
Federal Disaster Declarations Patterns:
1953-2014
73
Disaster Declarations Set New Records in Recent Years
Number of Federal Major Disaster Declarations, 1953-2014*
13 1
7 18
16
16
7 71
21
22
22
0 25
25
11
11
19
29
17
17
48
46
46
38
30
22 2
54
22
31
52
42
13
42
7 28
23
11
31
38
45
32 3
63
27
54
46
55
04
54
5 49
56
69
48 5
26
37
55
98
19
94
75
51
5
43
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
*Through April 8, 2014.Source: Federal Emergency Management Administration; http://www.fema.gov/disasters; Insurance Information Institute.
The Number of Federal Disaster Declarations Is Rising and Set New Records in 2010 and 2011 Before Dropping in 2012/13
The number of federal disaster declarations set a new record in 2011, with 99, shattering 2010’s
record 81 declarations.
There have been 2,153 federal disaster
declarations since 1953. The average
number of declarations per year is 35 from 1953-2013, though
there few haven’t been recorded since 1995.
15 federal disasters were declared so far in 2014*
74
75
Federal Disasters Declarations by State, 1953 – 2014: Highest 25 States*
88
79
75
67
66
60
57
56
55
55
53
52
52
51
51
50
50
50
48
48
47
47
44
43
43
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
TX CA OK NY FL LA AL KY MO AR IL MS IA TN WV MN KS PA NE WA VA OH ND SD NC
Dis
as
ter
De
cla
rati
on
s
Over the past 60 years, Texas has had the highest
number of Federal Disaster
Declarations
*Through April 8, 2014. Includes Puerto Rico and the District of Columbia.Source: FEMA: http://www.fema.gov/news/disaster_totals_annual.fema; Insurance Information Institute.
76
Federal Disasters Declarations by State, 1953 – 2014: Lowest 25 States*
40
40
39
38
37
37
35
33
29
29
26
26
26
26
24
24
23
23
22
19
17
17
15
13
11
11
9
0
10
20
30
40
50
ME AK IN GA WI VT NJ NH MA OR PR HI MI NM AZ MD ID MT CO CT NV SC DE DC UT RI WY
Dis
as
ter
De
cla
rati
on
s
Over the past 60 years, Wyoming and Rhode Island had the fewest
number of Federal Disaster Declarations
*Through April 8, 2014. Includes Puerto Rico and the District of Columbia.Source: FEMA: http://www.fema.gov/news/disaster_totals_annual.fema; Insurance Information Institute.
77
SEVERE WEATHER REPORT UPDATE: 2013
Damage from Tornadoes, Large Hail and High Winds Keep Insurers Busy
77
Location of Tornado Reports in 2013
78Source: NOAA Storm Prediction Center; http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/2013_annual_summary.html#; PCS.
There were 943 tornadoes
through Dec. 31, causing
extensive property
damage in several states
A deadly EF-5 tornado in May in
Moore, OK, produced insured losses of $1.575
billion. November tornadoes in the
Midwest like produced $1B in insured losses.
U.S. Tornado Count, 2005-2013*
79
*Through Dec. 31, 2013.Source: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/.
There were 1,897 tornadoes in the U.S. in 2011 far
above average, but well below 2008’s record
2013 count was the
lowest in a decade
Location of Large Hail Reports: 2013
80Source: NOAA Storm Prediction Center; http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/2013_annual_summary.html#
There were 5,457 “Large
Hail” reports in 2013, causing
extensive property and
vehicle damage
Location of High Wind Reports: 2013
81Source: NOAA Storm Prediction Center; http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/2013_annual_summary.html#
There were 12,942 “Wind Damage” in
2013, causing extensive property damage
Severe Weather Reports: 2013
82Source: NOAA Storm Prediction Center; http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/2013_annual_summary.html#
Severe weather reports are
concentrated east of the Rockies
There were 19,342 severe
weather reports in 2013;
including 942 tornadoes;
5,457 “Large Hail” reports
and 12,942 high wind events
Severe Weather Reports in Ohio: 2013
83Source: NOAA Storm Prediction Center; http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/2013_annual_summary.html#
There were 831 severe weather reports in 2013
26 Tornadoes
140 Large Hail Reports
665 High Wind Events
Severe Weather Reports in Ohio: 2014*
84
*Through April 8.Source: NOAA Storm Prediction Center; http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/2013_annual_summary.html#
There have been 15 severe weather reports
so far in 2014
2 Tornadoes
0 Large Hail Reports
13 High Wind Events
Terrorism Update
85
Down to the Wire? Boston Bombings Underscore the Need for Extension of the Terrorism Risk Insurance Program
Download III’s Terrorism Insurance Report at: http://www.iii.org/white_papers/terrorism-risk-a-constant-threat-2013.html
85
Life$1.2 (3%)
Aviation Liability
$4.3 (11%)
Other Liability
$4.9 (12%)
Biz Interruption $13.5 (33%)
Property -WTC 1 & 2*$4.4 (11%) Property -
Other$7.4 (19%)
Aviation Hull$0.6 (2%)
Event Cancellation
$1.2 (3%)Workers Comp
$2.2 (6%)
Total Insured Losses Estimate: $40.0B***Loss total does not include March 2010 New York City settlement of up to $657.5 million to compensate approximately 10,000 Ground Zero workers or any subsequent settlements.
**$32.5 billion in 2001 dollars.
Source: Insurance Information Institute.
Loss Distribution by Type of Insurancefrom Sept. 11 Terrorist Attack ($ 2011)
($ Billions)
89Source: Aon PLC; Insurance Information Institute.
Terrorism remains a greater concern in the Middle East,
Africa and South Asia
Latin and South America have modest
terrorist threats though Brazil is elevated
Terrorism Risk in 2013: Greatest Business Opportunities Are Often in Risky Nations
91
Terrorism Insurance Take-up Rates,By Year, 2003-2012
Source: Marsh Global Analytics, 2013 Terrorism Risk Insurance Report, May 2013.
27%
49%
58% 59% 59% 57%61% 62% 64% 62%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
In 2003, the first year TRIA was in effect, the terrorism take-up rate was 27 percent. Since then, it has increased steadily, remaining in the
low 60 percent range since 2009.
Take-up rates for smaller commercial risks are lower—
potentially very low in some areas and industries
93
Terrorism Risk Insurance Program
Testified before Senate Banking Cmte. in Sept. 2013 Testified before House Financial Services Nov. 2013 Provided testimony at NYC hearing on June 2013 I.I.I. Accelerated Planned Study on Terrorism Risk and
Insurance in the Wake of Boston and Hearings; Was Well Received and Widely Circulated
Working with Trades, Congressional Staff, GAO & Others
Senate Banking Committee, 9/25/13House Financial Services Subcommittee, 11/13/13
98
REINSURANCE MARKET CONDITIONS
Ample Capacity as Alternative Capital is
Transforming the Market
98
Change in Reinsurer Capital, 2007—2013
Source: Aon Benfield.
Total reinsurance capital is up 59%
since 2008
Reinsurance Pricing: Rate-on-Line Index by Region, 1990 – 2014*
*As of Jan. 1.Source: Guy Carpenter
Lower CATs and a flood of new
capital has pushed reinsurance pricing
down in most regions, including
the US
Alternative Capacity as a Percentage of Global Property Catastrophe Reinsurance Limit
Source: Guy Carpenter
(As of Year End)
Alternative Capacity accounted for approximately 14% or $45 billion
of the $316 in global property catastrophe reinsurance capital as
of mid-2013 (expected to rise to ~15% by year-end 2013)
Traditional Reinsurance,
$268 , 88%
Collateralized Reinsurance
(Sidecars), $15 , 5%
Industry Loss Warranties, $6 ,
2%
Catastrophe Bonds, $16 , 5%
“Convergence Capital” accounted
for an estimated $45B or 14% or total
property catastrophe reinsurance capacity
as of mid-2013, up $10B over the past 18 months (since 1/1/12).
Penetration of this type of capacity is
growing
Property Catastrophe Reinsurance Capacity by Source as of Mid-2013 ($ Bill)
Source: Guy Carpenter; Mid-Year Market Report, September 2013; Insurance Information Institute. 105
Collateralized reinsurance (sidecars) is
the fastest growing segment recently
Total = $316 Billion*
Investor by Category, 2013 vs. 2012*
*As of June 30 each year.Source: Aon Benfield Securities; Insurance Information Institute.
Institutional Investors are
accounting for a larger share of
alternative reinsurance
investors
Non-Traditional Property CatastropheLimits by Type, YE 2012 vs. YE 2015E
Source: Guy Carpenter; Reinsurance Association of America; Insurance Information Institute.
$13 $15
$6 $8
$10 $11
$15
$23 $44
$57
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
2012* 2015E
NON-TRADITIONAL P/CAT LIMITS BY TYPE
Cat Bond Retro ILW Collateralized Re
Source: Guy Carpenter; *As Of Mar-2013
Alternative capital is expected to rise by 30% by YE 2015 and will ultimately
account for 20-30% of total reinsurance
spend, according to Guy Carpenter
Catastrophe Bonds: Issuance and Outstanding, 1997- 2013*Risk Capital Amount ($ Millions)
*Through Dec. 31, 2013.Source: Guy Carpenter; Insurance Information Institute.
63
3.0
84
6.1
98
4.8
1,1
30
.0
96
6.9 2
,72
9.2
3,3
91
.7
4,6
00
.3
4,1
08
.8
5,8
52
.9
7,0
83
.0
1,991.11,142.8
1,729.8
6,9
96
.3
4,6
93
.4
1,219.5$
3,4
50
.0
$4
,04
0.4
$4
,90
4.2 $
8,5
41
.6
$1
4,0
24
.2
$1
2,0
43
.6
$1
2,5
08
.8
$1
2,1
85
.0
$1
2,1
39
.1
$1
4,8
35
.7 $1
8,5
16
.7
$2
,95
0.0
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
$14,000
$16,000
$18,000
$20,000
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13Risk Capital IssuedRisk Capital Outstandng at Year End
Catastrophe Bond Issuance Is Approaching Pre-Crisis Levels While Risk Capital Outstanding Stands at an All-Time Record
CAT bond issuance reached a record high in 2013
Risk capital outstanding
reached a record high in 2013
Financial crisis depressed issuance
CAT OF THE FUTURE?CYBER RISK
111
Cyber Risk is a Rapidly Emerging Exposure for Businesses Large
and Small in Every IndustryNEW III White Paper:
http://www.iii.org/assets/docs/pdf/paper_CyberRisk_2013.pdf
111
Data Breaches 2005-2013, by Number of Breaches and Records Exposed# Data Breaches/Millions of Records Exposed
* 2013 figures as of Jan. 1, 2014 from the ITRC updated to an additional 30 million records breached (Target) as disclosed in Jan. 2014.Source: Identity Theft Resource Center.
157
321
446
656
498
419447
619662
87.9
17.322.9
35.7
19.1
66.9
222.5
16.2
127.7
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013*0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
# Data Breaches # Records Exposed (Millions)
The Total Number of Data Breaches (+38%) and Number of Records Exposed (+408%) in 2013 Soared
Millions
113
The Most Costly Cyber Crimes, Fiscal Year 2012
4%4%
7%
7%
8%
12%
12%
20%
26%
Source: 2012 Cost of Cyber Crime: United States, Ponemon Institute.
Malicious code, denial of service and web-based attacks account for more than 58 percent of the total annualized cost of cyber crime experienced by 56 companies.
Malicious code
Botnets
Denial of service
Malware
Viruses, Worms, Trojans
Phishing + social engineering
Malicious insiders
Stolen devices
Web-based attacks
114
External Cyber Crime Costs: Fiscal Year 2012
2%5%
19%
30%
44%
* Other costs include direct and indirect costs that could not be allocated to a main external cost categorySource: 2012 Cost of Cyber Crime: United States, Ponemon Institute.
Information loss (44%) and business disruption or lost productivity (30%) account for the majority of external costs due to cyber crime.
Information loss
Equipment damagesOther costs*
Revenue loss
Business disruption
The Strength of the Economy Will Influence P/C Insurer
Growth Opportunities
115
Growth Will Expand Insurer Exposure Base Across Most Lines
115
116
US Real GDP Growth*
* Estimates/Forecasts from Blue Chip Economic Indicators.Source: US Department of Commerce, Blue Economic Indicators 4/14; Insurance Information Institute.
2.7%
0.5%
3.6%
3.0%
1.7%
-1.8
%1.
3%-3
.7%
-5.3
%-0
.3%
1.4%
5.0%
2.3%
2.2% 2.6%
2.4%
0.1%
2.5%
1.3%
4.1%
2.0%
1.3%
3.1%
1.1% 2.
5%4.
1%2.
4%1.
7% 3.0%
3.0%
3.1%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
2.9%
0.4%
-8.9%
4.1%
1.1% 1.
8% 2.5% 3.
6%3.
1%
-9%
-7%
-5%
-3%
-1%
1%
3%
5%
7%
2
00
0
2
00
1
2
00
2
2
00
3
2
00
4
2
00
5
2
00
6
07
:1Q
07
:2Q
07
:3Q
07
:4Q
08
:1Q
08
:2Q
08
:3Q
08
:4Q
09
:1Q
09
:2Q
09
:3Q
09
:4Q
10
:1Q
10
:2Q
10
:3Q
10
:4Q
11
:1Q
11
:2Q
11
:3Q
11
:4Q
12
:1Q
12
:2Q
12
:3Q
12
:4Q
13
:1Q
13
:2Q
13
:3Q
13
:4Q
14
:1Q
14
:2Q
14
:3Q
14
:4Q
15
:1Q
15
:2Q
15
:3Q
15
:4Q
Demand for Insurance Should Increase in 2014/15 as GDP Growth Accelerates Modestly and Gradually Benefits the Economy Broadly
Real GDP Growth (%)
Recession began in Dec. 2007. Economic toll of credit crunch, housing slump, labor market contraction
was severe
The Q4:2008 decline was the steepest since the Q1:1982 drop of 6.8%
2014/15 are expected to see a
modest acceleration in growth
117
Real GDP by State Percent Change, 2012:Highest 25 States
13
.4
4.8
3.9
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.4
3.3
3.3
3.3
2.7
2.7
2.6
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.0
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
ND TX OR WA CA MN UT IN TN WV NC SC AZ FL IA MD MS MA MI OH US CO GA MT OK MO
Pe
rce
nt
Ch
an
ge
(%
)
Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics; Insurance Information Institute.
North Dakota was the economic growth juggernaut of the US
in 2012—by far
Only 10 states experienced growth in excess of 3%, which is what we would see nationally in
a more typical recovery
118
1.9
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.2
1.2
1.1
1.1
0.7
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
-0.1
-0.4-0.20.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.0
IL PA HI LA NE NV WI KS KY RI AR NJ NY AL VT AK VA DC ME NH ID DE NM SD WY CT
Pe
rce
nt
Ch
an
ge
(%
)
Real GDP by State Percent Change, 2012: Lowest 25 States
Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics; Insurance Information Institute.
Connecticut was the only state to shrink in 2012
Growth rates in 8 states (and DC) were still below
1% in 2012
State-by-State Leading Indicatorsthrough 2014:Q2
Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia at http://www.philadelphiafed.org/index.cfm ;Insurance Information Institute. 119
The economic outlook for most of
the US is positive for the first time in many
years
74
.47
3.6
73
.67
2.2
73
.6 76
67
.86
8.9
68
.26
7.7 7
1.6 74
.57
4.2 77
.56
7.5 69
.8 74
.37
1.5
63
.75
5.7 5
9.5
60
.9 64
.16
9.9
75
.07
5.3
76
.27
6.4 79
.37
3.2
72
.3 74
.38
2.6
82
.77
4.5
73
.8 77
.67
8.6
84
.58
4.1
85
.18
2.1
77
.57
3.2 75
.18
2.5
81
.28
1.6
79
.9
76
.4
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
Jan
-10
Fe
b-1
0M
ar-
10
Ap
r-1
0M
ay-
10
Jun
-10
Jul-
10
Au
g-1
0S
ep
-10
Oct
-10
No
v-1
0D
ec-
10
Jan
-11
Fe
b-1
1M
ar-
11
Ap
r-1
1M
ay-
11
Jun
-11
Jul-
11
Au
g-1
1S
ep
-11
Oct
-11
No
v-1
1D
ec-
11
Jan
-12
Fe
b-1
2M
ar-
12
Ap
r-1
2M
ay-
12
Jun
-12
Jul-
12
Au
g-1
2O
ct-1
2N
ov-
12
De
c-1
2Ja
n-1
3F
eb
-13
Ma
r-1
3A
pr-
13
Ma
y-1
3Ju
n-1
3Ju
l-1
3A
ug
-13
Se
p-1
3O
ct-1
3N
ov-
13
De
c-1
3Ja
n-1
4F
eb
-14
Ma
r-1
4
Consumer Sentiment Survey (1966 = 100)
January 2010 through March 2014
Consumer confidence has been low for years amid high unemployment, falling home prices and other factors adversely impact consumers, but improved substantially over the past 2+ years, though
uncertainty in Washington sometimes takes a toll.Source: University of Michigan; Insurance Information Institute
Optimism among consumers dropped in Q3 2013 as the
government shutdown created uncertainty, then rebounded
though the harsh winter took a toll
120
Impact of 2011 budget impasse
121
Unemployment and Underemployment Rates: Still Too High, But Falling
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jan00
Jan01
Jan02
Jan03
Jan04
Jan05
Jan06
Jan07
Jan08
Jan09
Jan10
Jan11
Jan12
Jan13
Jan14
"Headline" Unemployment Rate U-3
Unemployment + Underemployment RateU-6
“Headline” unemployment
was 6.7% in March 2014. 4%
to 6% is “normal.”
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics; Insurance Information Institute.
U-6 went from 8.0% in March
2007 to 17.5% in October 2009; Stood at 12.7%
in Mar. 2014.8% to 10% is
“normal.”
January 2000 through March 2014, Seasonally Adjusted (%)
Stubbornly high unemployment and underemployment constrain overall economic growth, but the job market is now clearly improving.
121
As the unemployment rate approaches 6%,
the Fed will begin signaling on short-
term rates
122
US Unemployment Rate Forecast4
.5%
4.5
%4
.6%
4.8
%4
.9% 5.4
% 6.1
%6
.9%
8.1
%9
.3%
9.6
% 10
.0%
9.7
%9
.6%
9.6
%
8.9
%9
.1%
9.1
%8
.7%
8.3
%8
.2%
8.0
%7
.8%
7.7
%7
.6%
7.3
%7
.0%
6.7
%6
.5%
6.4
%6
.2%
6.1
%6
.0%
5.9
%5
.8%
9.6
%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
07
:Q1
07
:Q2
07
:Q3
07
:Q4
08
:Q1
08
:Q2
08
:Q3
08
:Q4
09
:Q1
09
:Q2
09
:Q3
09
:Q4
10
:Q1
10
:Q2
10
:Q3
10
:Q4
11
:Q1
11
:Q2
11
:Q3
11
:Q4
12
:Q1
12
:Q2
12
:Q3
12
:Q4
13
:Q1
13
:Q2
13
:Q3
13
:Q4
14
:Q1
14
:Q2
14
:Q3
14
:Q4
15
:Q1
15
:Q2
15
:Q3
15
:Q4
Rising unemployment
eroded payrolls
and WC’s exposure base.
Unemployment peaked at 10%
in late 2009.
* = actual; = forecastsSources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics; Blue Chip Economic Indicators (4/14 edition); Insurance Information Institute.
2007:Q1 to 2015:Q4F*
Unemployment forecasts have been revised slightly
downwards. Optimistic scenarios put the
unemployment as low as 6.0% by Q4 of this year.
Jobless figures have been revised
slightly downwards for 2014/15
23
15
21
70
52
12
65
73
-71
32 6
4 81
55
3-1
15
-10
6-2
21
-21
5-2
06
-26
1-2
58
-42
2-4
86
-77
6 -69
3-8
21
-69
8-8
10
-80
1-2
94
-42
6-2
72
-23
2 -14
1-2
71
-15
-23
22
0-3
8
19
29
4 11
01
20
11
71
07 1
99
14
99
47
22
23
23
1 32
01
66
18
6 21
91
25
26
81
77
19
12
22
36
42
28
24
61
02
13
17
51
72
13
61
59
25
52
11
21
52
19 26
31
64
18
82
22
20
11
70
18
01
53 2
47
27
28
61
66
18
81
92
11
3
(1,000)
(800)
(600)
(400)
(200)
0
200
400
600
Jan
-07
Fe
b-0
7M
ar-
07
Ap
r-0
7M
ay-
07
Jun
-07
Jul-
07
Au
g-0
7S
ep
-07
Oct
-07
No
v-0
7D
ec-
07
Jan
-08
Fe
b-0
8M
ar-
08
Ap
r-0
8M
ay-
08
Jun
-08
Jul-
08
Au
g-0
8S
ep
-08
Oct
-08
No
v-0
8D
ec-
08
Jan
-09
Fe
b-0
9M
ar-
09
Ap
r-0
9M
ay-
09
Jun
-09
Jul-
09
Au
g-0
9S
ep
-09
Oct
-09
No
v-0
9D
ec-
09
Jan
-10
Fe
b-1
0M
ar-
10
Ap
r-1
0M
ay-
10
Jun
-10
Jul-
10
Au
g-1
0S
ep
-10
Oct
-10
No
v-1
0D
ec-
10
Jan
-11
Fe
b-1
1M
ar-
11
Ap
r-1
1M
ay-
11
Jun
-11
Jul-
11
Au
g-1
1S
ep
-11
Oct
-11
No
v-1
1D
ec-
11
Jan
-12
Fe
b-1
2M
ar-
12
Ap
r-1
2M
ay-
12
Jun
-12
Jul-
12
Au
g-1
2S
ep
-12
Oct
-12
No
v-1
2D
ec-
12
Jan
-13
Fe
b-1
3M
ar-
13
Ap
r-1
3M
ay-
13
Jun
-13
Jul-
13
Au
g-1
3S
ep
-13
Oct
-13
No
v-1
3D
ec-
13
Jan
-14
Fe
b-1
4M
ar-
14
Monthly Change in Private Employment
January 2007 through March 2014 (Thousands, Seasonally Adjusted)
Private Employers Added 8.88 million Jobs Since Jan. 2010 After Having Shed 5.01 Million Jobs in 2009 and 3.76 Million in 2008 (State and Local Governments Have Shed Hundreds of Thousands of Jobs)
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics: http://www.bls.gov/ces/home.htm; Insurance Information Institute
Monthly losses in Dec. 08–Mar. 09
were the largest in the
post-WW II period
192,000 private sector jobs were
created in March. As of March 2014, all the jobs lost in
the Great Recession have been recovered
123
Jobs Created2013: 2.368 Mill2012: 2.294 Mill2011: 2.400 Mill2010: 1.277 Mill
126
16.9
16.5
16.1
13.2
10.4
11.6
12.7
14.4
15.5 16
.0 16.4
16.2
16.2
16.2
16.216
.9
16.617
.117.5
17.8
17.4
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13E14F 15F16F 17F18F 19F
(Millions of Units)
Auto/Light Truck Sales, 1999-2019F
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; Blue Chip Economic Indicators (4/14 and 3/13); Insurance Information Institute.
Car/Light Truck Sales Will Continue to Recover from the 2009 Low Point, Bolstering the Auto Insurer Growth and the Manufacturing Sector Along
With Workers Comp Exposures
New auto/light truck sales fell to the lowest level since the late 1960s. Forecast for 2013-14 is
still below 1999-2007 average of 17 million units, but a robust recovery is well underway.
Job growth and improved credit market conditions will boost auto sales in
2014 and beyond
Truck purchases by contractors are especially strong
129
Monthly Change* in Auto Insurance Prices, 1991–2014*
*Percentage change from same month in prior year; through January 2014; seasonally adjustedNote: Recessions indicated by gray shaded columns.Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics; National Bureau of Economic Research (recession dates); Insurance Information Institutes.
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
'90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14
Cyclical peaks in PP Auto tend to occur
approximately every 10 years (early 1990s, early
2000s and likely the early 2010s)
“Hard” markets tend to occur
during recessionary
periods
Pricing peak occurred in late
2010 at 5.3%, falling to 2.8% by Mar. 2012
The Jan. 2014 reading of 3.4%
down from 4.9% a year earlier
Private Passenger Auto: Premium Growth vs. Loss Cost Spread
Sources: Evercore Equity Research, Jan. 2014. 131
Premium growth has generally exceeded underlying loss cost
trends since mid-2008
132
Average Expenditures* on Auto Insurance, 1994-2014F
$651 $6
68 $691 $7
05 $726
$786
$830 $8
42
$831
$816
$799
$791
$787
$792
$797 $8
13 $829 $8
46
$690
$685$7
03
$600
$650
$700
$750
$800
$850
$900
$950
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
12E
13E
14F
Across the U.S., auto insurance expenditures fell by 0.8% in 2008and 0.5% in 2009 but rose 0.5% in 2010 and 0.8% in 2011.
I.I.I. estimates for 2012-2014 are each +2.0%.* The NAIC data are per-vehicle (actually, per car-year)
Sources: NAIC for 1994-2011; Insurance Information Institute estimates for 2012-2014 based on CPI and other data.
The average expenditure on auto insurance is lower today than it was in 2004
Annual Pct Changes
2001: 5.2%2002: 8.6%2003: 5.6%2004: 1.5%2005: -1.3%2006: -1.8%2007: -2.1%2008: -1.0%2009: -0.5%2010: 0.6%2011: 0.6%
134
(Millions of Units)
New Private Housing Starts, 1990-2019F
1.4
8
1.4
7 1.6
21
.64
1.5
71
.60 1.7
1 1.8
5 1.9
6 2.0
71
.80
1.3
6
0.9
10
.55
0.5
9
0.6
1 0.7
8 0.9
2 1.0
81
.31 1.4
41
.50
1.5
11
.50
1.3
51.4
61
.29
1.2
0
1.0
11.1
9
0.3
0.5
0.7
0.9
1.1
1.3
1.5
1.7
1.9
2.1
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13F14F15F16F17F18F19F
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; Blue Chip Economic Indicators (4/14 and 3/13); Insurance Information Institute.
Insurers Are Continue to See Meaningful Exposure Growth in the Wake of the “Great Recession” Associated with Home Construction: Construction Risk
Exposure, Surety, Commercial Auto; Potent Driver of Workers Comp Exposure
New home starts plunged 72% from 2005-2009; A net
annual decline of 1.49 million units, lowest since records began
in 1959
Job growth, low inventories of existing homes, low mortgage rates and demographics should continue to stimulate new home construction
for several more years
135
Average Premium forHome Insurance Policies**
* Insurance Information Institute Estimates/Forecasts **Excludes state-run insurers.Sources: NAIC; Insurance Information Institute estimates for 2012-2014 based on CPI data and other data.
$508$536
$593
$668
$822 $830$880
$909
$978$1,017
$1,058$1,100
$804$764
$729
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12* 13* 14*
Across the U.S., home insurance expenditures rose by an estimated 4.0% in 2012-2014
Annual Pct Changes
2001: 5.5%2002: 10.6%2003: 12.7%2004: 9.1%2005: 4.8%2006: 5.2%2007: 2.2%2008: 1.0%2009: 6.0%2010: 3.3%2011: 7.6%
136
Homeowners InsuranceNet Written Premium, 2000–2015F
$45.8$49.5
$52.2$54.8 $55.2
$61.1$63.5
$66.8$70.4
$74.0
$77.9
$57.5$56.2
$32.4
$40.0
$35.2
$30
$35
$40
$45
$50
$55
$60
$65
$70
$75
$80
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13P 14F 15F
Sources: A.M. Best; Insurance Information Institute.
$ Billions Homeowners insurance NWP continues to rise (up 128% 2000-2013) despite very little unit
growth during the real estate crash. Reasons include rate increases, especially in coastal
zones, ITV endorsements (e.g., “inflation guards”), and inelastic demand
143
Manufacturing Employment,Jan. 2010—March 2014*
11
,46
01
1,4
60
11
,46
61
1,4
97
11
,53
11
1,5
39
11
,55
81
1,5
48
11
,55
41
1,5
55
11
,57
71
1,5
90
11
,62
41
1,6
62
11
,68
21
1,7
07
11
,71
51
1,7
24
11
,74
71
1,7
60
11
,76
21
1,7
70
11
,76
91
1,7
97
11
,84
11
1,8
70
11
,91
01
1,9
20
11
,92
61
1,9
35
11
,95
71
1,9
43
11
,92
51
1,9
31
11
,93
81
1,9
51
11
,96
51
1,9
88
11
,98
41
1,9
77
11
,97
21
1,9
65
11
,94
81
1,9
63
11
,99
31
2,0
11
12
,04
61
2,0
53
12
,06
11
2,0
80
12
,07
9
11,250
11,500
11,750
12,000
12,250Ja
n-1
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eb
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Manufacturing employment is a surprising source of strength in the economy. Employment in the sector is at a multi-year high.
*Seasonally adjusted; Feb. and Mar. 2014 are preliminarySources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics at http://data.bls.gov; Insurance Information Institute.
(Thousands) Since Jan 2010, manufacturing employment
is up (+619,000 or +5.4%)and still growing.
153
12 Industries for the Next 10 Years: Insurance Solutions Needed
Export-Oriented Industries
Health Sciences
Health Care
Energy (Traditional)
Alternative Energy
Petrochemical
Agriculture
Natural Resources
Technology (incl. Biotechnology)
Light Manufacturing
Insourced Manufacturing
Many industries are
poised for growth, though
insurers’ ability to
capitalize on these
industries varies widely
Shipping (Rail, Marine, Trucking, Pipelines)
U.S. Natural Has Imports and Exports, 1990 - 2040
Sources: US Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release Overview; ;Insurance Information Institute. 154
Trillions of Cubic Feet
The US is now the largest gas producer in the world, though Russia is the
largest exporter. The US needs to
invest in its pipeline and
LNG infrastructure and expedite
regulatory approval to
realize its full export potential
CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY OVERVIEW & OUTLOOK
155
The Construction Sector Is Critical to the Economy and the P/C Insurance Industry
155
156
Value of New Private Construction: Residential & Nonresidential, 2003-2013*
Billions of Dollars
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
$1,000
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13*
Non ResidentialResidential
Private Construction Activity Is Moving in a Positive Direction though Remains Well Below Pre-Crisis Peak; Residential Dominates
$298.1
$15.0
$613.7
New Construction peaks at $911.8. in 2006
Trough in 2010 at $500.6B,
after plunging 55.1% ($411.2B)
2013: Value of new pvt. construction hits $667.5B, up
33% from the 2010 trough but still
27% below 2006 peak
156
$261.8
$238.8
$311.5
$356.0
*2013 figure is a seasonally adjusted annual rate as of December.Sources: US Department of Commerce; Insurance Information Institute.
159
Value of Construction Put in Place, January 2014 vs. January 2013*
2.5%
-22.2%
3.0%
9.3%12.3%
14.6%
9.7%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
TotalConstruction
Total PrivateConstruction
Residential--Private
Non-Residential--
Private
Total PublicConstruction
Residential-Public
Non-Residential--
Public
Overall Construction Activity is Up, But Growth Is Almost Entirely in the Private Sector as State/Local Government Budget Woes Continue
Growth (%)
Private sector construction activity is now up in the
residential and nonresidential segments
*seasonally adjustedSource: U.S. Census Bureau, http://www.census.gov/construction/c30/c30index.html ; Insurance Information Institute.
Private: +12.3% Public: +2.5%
Public sector construction activity remains low but is no
longer contracting
Florida Total Private Housing Starts,2000 – 2017F
162
The economic outlook for most of
the US is positive for the first time in many
years
Source: University of Central Florida Institute for Economic Competitiveness: http://iec.ucf.edu/post/2014/01/07/Florida-Metro-Forecast-December-2013.aspx
CRASH, CRATER, RECOVERY Homebuilding in FL continues
to recover, adding substantially to coastal exposures.
(Thousands of Units)
168
Construction Employment,Jan. 2010—March 2014*
*Seasonally adjusted.Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics at http://data.bls.gov; Insurance Information Institute.
5,58
15,
522
5,54
25,
554
5,52
75,
512
5,49
75,
519
5,49
95,
501
5,49
75,
468
5,43
5 5,47
85,
485
5,49
75,
524
5,53
05,
547
5,54
6 5,58
35,
576
5,57
7 5,61
25,
629
5,64
45,
640
5,63
65,
615
5,62
25,
627
5,63
05,
633
5,64
95,
673 5,71
15,
735 5,
783
5,79
95,
792
5,79
15,
801
5,80
45,
805
5,82
25,
830
5,84
95,
876 5,
927
5,94
55,
964
5,400
5,500
5,600
5,700
5,800
5,900
6,000
Jan-
10F
eb-1
0M
ar-1
0A
pr-1
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ay-1
0Ju
n-10
Jul-1
0A
ug-1
0S
ep-1
0O
ct-1
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0Ja
n-11
Feb
-11
Mar
-11
Apr
-11
May
-11
Jun-
11Ju
l-11
Aug
-11
Sep
-11
Oct
-11
Nov
-11
Dec
-11
Jan-
122/
30/2
Mar
-12
Apr
-12
May
-12
Jun-
12Ju
l-12
Aug
-12
Sep
-12
Oct
-12
Nov
-12
Dec
-12
Jan-
13F
eb-1
3M
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3A
pr-1
3M
ay-1
3Ju
n-13
Jul-1
3A
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3S
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3N
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3D
ec-1
3Ja
n-14
Feb
-14
Mar
-14
Construction employment is +529,000 above
Jan. 2011 (+9.7%) trough
(Thousands)
Construction and manufacturing employment constitute 1/3 of all payroll exposure.
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171