Carbonproducers'tarpit:dinosaursbewareThepathtoholdingfossilfuelproducersaccountabilityforclimatechange&climatedamages
RichardHeedeClimateAccountabilityInstitute
INET,Edinburgh23October2017
UNFrameworkConvention1992• Developednations“in…theircommonbutdifferentiatedresponsibilities…should
taketheleadincombatingclimatechangeandtheadverseeffectsthereof.”• Focusisonnation-states,leadbyAnnex1nationsbasedontheirresponsibilityfor
historicemissionsthatdriveclimatechange.
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Tenlargestnations’cumulativefossilfuel& cementCO2emissions1750-2015
ImagecourtesyofCarbonVisuals,UK,carbonvisuals.com 3
Attribute ashareofresponsibilitytocarbonproducers?
Attributeashareofresponsibilitytocarbonproducers?
Historicemissionsarethechiefdriversofclimatechange;Companies have:• producedthelion’sshareof
thecarbonfuelsthatcauseclimatechange
• misleadconsumers,investors,andlegislatorsonclimaterisk
• thetechnicalskills,capital,andmoralresponsibilitytoreducenetcarbonproductioninlinewithscience-basedtargetof2°C– orless
CAIprovides thescientific basisforaccountability,andforleveraging effective action byfossil fuel producers
CarbonMajors:theprocess
• Entitythresholdof≥8MtC inrecentyear:90CarbonMajorEntities:– 50investor-ownedcompanies(IOCs)– 31state-ownedentities(SOEs)– 9nation-statessuchasFSU,China,Kazakhstan,Poland,andNorthKorea– 36coalproducers,54petroleum,55naturalgas,7cement.
• Earliestproductionrecordsavailable,from~1900formajorinvestor-ownedcompanies,1970sformoststate-ownedentities
• Gatherentitydataonoil,naturalgas,coal,andcementproduction– Annualreports,companyhistories,SECfilings,entitywebsites– OilGasJournal,EIAdata,NationalMiningAssociation,WorldOil,etc.
• Enterproductiondatainmillionbbloil,Bcf naturalgas,tonnes coal• Accountformergersandacquisitions(emissionstoextantentity)• Deductnon-energyusesofproducedcarbonproducts(~8%foroil)• Applyrobustandpeer-reviewedemissionfactors
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Peabody1945-2016
Chevron1912-2016
8Copyright©Climate AccountabilityInstitute
9Copyright©Climate AccountabilityInstitute
Two-thirdsofCO2 emissionssince1751tracedtoninetyfossilfuelandcementproducers
Top20companies,percentofglobal,1751-2016
10Copyright©Climate AccountabilityInstitute
HalfofallhistoricCO2 since1988
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Whatthefossilfuelindustryknew,andwhen
• Earlywarningsin1965:PresidentJohnsonalertsCongress;• 1970s:earlyoil&gascompanystudiesonclimatechange• 1979:USNationalResearchCouncilreport• 1970s-1980s:Exxoninternalresearch,reporttomanagement
(InsideClimate News, LosAngelesTimes,&MerchantsofDoubt)
• 1988:IPCCestablished• 1990:firstassessmentreport• 1995:secondassessmentreport:“adiscerniblehuman
influenceonglobalclimate”
Top20companies,percentofglobal,1988-2015
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Pathwaytoaccountability
Phase1- 2:Heede(2014)TracinganthropogenicCO2 andmethaneemissionstofossilfuelandcementproducers1854-2010,ClimaticChange;Phase3- 5:Ekwurzel etal.(2017)TheriseinglobalatmosphericCO2,surfacetemperature,andsealevelfromemissionstracedtomajorcarbonproducers,ClimaticChange.
Sealevelriseattributedtocompanyemissions,1980-2010(1%=1.77mm)
Ekwurzel etal.(2017)TheriseinglobalatmosphericCO2,surfacetemperature,andsealevelfromemissionstracedtomajorcarbonproducers,ClimaticChange.
Impacts:sealevelrise&landloss,1980-2010
Emissions SLR LandLossGtCO2 mm km2
SaudiAramco: 36.6 1.43 602Gazprom: 27.2 1.14 482ExxonMobil: 18.7 0.92 386BP: 16.2 0.80 335Chevron: 16.0 0.88 370RoyalDutchShell: 13.4 0.61 256PeabodyCoal: 9.0 0.30 128
Sources:Emissions:ClimateAccountabilityInstitute
SLR:Ekwurzel etal.(2017)LandLoss:CIESIN/Columbiadata,calculationsbyR.Heede
Doesitlooklikesuccess?
Investigations,litigation,andharassment
• Peruvianfarmerv.RWE(Germanligniteproducer:0.47%ofglobalCO2)• NewYork&MassAGinvestigationofExxonMobilforconsumerandinvestorfraud• PhilippinesCommissiononHumanRightsinvestigationof40“CarbonMajors”• MarinCounty,SanMateoCounty,ImperialBeachcomplaintagainst20majorcarbon
producersre:sealevelriseadaptationcosts• CityofSanFranciscoandCityofOaklandsuitagainst5majoroilandgascompanies
(Shell,BP,Chevron,ExxonMobil,ConocoPhillips)re:SLR• USHouseCommitteeonScience,Space,&Technologyinvestigateandsubpoena
ClimateAccountabilityInstitute&colleagues&funders• LamarSmith,SSTChairman,allegesourcoordinatedattemptto“deprivecompanies,
non-profitorganizations,andscientistsoftheirFirstAmendmentrightsandabilitytofundandconductscientificresearchfreeintimidationandthreatsofprosecution.”Mr Smithdemandsourrecords;wedonotcomply
• ExxonMobillawyersfollowwithsubpoenaofCAIandotherNGOs;casependinginSouthernDistrictofNewYork
Testimonials
“LiketheCarbonMajorsanalysisthatitbuildson,thisreportdemonstratesthegrowingprecisionwithwhichmajorcarbonproducers’responsibilityforclimatechangeandclimateimpactscanbequantified,allocatedand,ultimately,litigated”
— CarrollMuffett,CenterforInternationalEnvironmentalLaw
“Investor-ownedcompanieshavelongunderstoodtheharmoftheirproducts,yetcarriedoutadecades-longcampaigntosowdoubtsaboutthoseharmsinordertoensurefossilfuelswouldremaincentraltoglobalenergyproduction.Companiesknowinglyviolatedthemostbasicmoralprincipleof‘donoharm,’andnowtheymustremedytheharmtheycaused.”
— HenryShue,OxfordUniversity,Politics&InternationalRelations
Inclosing
“Fossil-fuelcompaniesshouldbeheldaccountablefortheeffectsofclimatechange.Legalwarfarehasatwo-foldaim:tooverhaultransgressors’businessmodelssothattheyareinlinewiththeglobalcommitmenttophaseoutfossilfuelsandlimittemperaturerisesto1.5°C;andtogetthemtopayfordamagesresultingfromglobalwarming.Climatelitigationistheinevitableresultofafailureoftwodecadesoftalks.Butitisalsoanimportantwayofreframingtheclimatecrisisasahumanrightsemergency.”
— TheGuardian EditorialBoard,10Sep2017
Ekwurzel,B.,J.Boneham,M.W.Dalton,R.Heede,R.J.Mera,M.R.Allen,&P.C.Frumhoff (2017)TheriseinglobalatmosphericCO2,surfacetemperature,andsealevelfromemissionstracedtomajorcarbonproducers,ClimaticChange,vol.144:579-590
Heede,Richard,&NaomiOreskes (2016):PotentialemissionsofCO2 andmethanefromprovenreservesoffossilfuels,GlobalEnvironmentalChange,vol.36:12-20.
Frumhoff,P.,R.Heede,&N.Oreskes (2015)Theclimateresponsibilitiesofindustrialcarbonproducers,ClimaticChange,vol.132:157-171.
Heede,Richard(2014)TracinganthropogenicCO2 andmethaneemissionstofossilfuelandcementproducers1854-2010,ClimaticChange,vol.122(1):229-241.
Starr,Douglas(2016)Thecarbonaccountant:RichardHeedepinsmuchoftheresponsibilityforclimatechangeonjust90companies,othersthinkthat'sacopout,Science,vol.353:858-861.
RickHeede,Director,ClimateAccountabilityInstituteclimateaccountability.org;carbonmajors.org;
[email protected],Colorado+1-970-343-0707
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• Globalemissions1751-2013:1,443GtCO2
• CarbonMajorscumulative:939GtCO2 (65%)• State-ownedoilandgascompaniesgainingoninvestor-owned
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HumanactionshaveincreasedatmosphericCO2 from~280to400ppmWheredidthiscarboncomefrom?
Whoisresponsible?First,whoemittedit?(Thenormativefocusisonemittersandnations)
Congressandindustryresponse:investigation,subpoenas,&harassment
• HouseScienceCommitteelaunchedinvestigationofCAI,UCS,350.org,Greenpeace,RockefellerBrothersFund,climatelawyerMattPawa,andothers
• LamarSmith(R-TX,Chairman)issuedsubpoenaformyemails& materials,followedbyExxonMobilsubpoena
• Allegedconspiracyto“deprivecompanies…oftheirFirstAmendmentrightsandabilityto…conductscientificresearchfreefromintimidationandthreatsofprosecution.”
• I haverefusedtocomplyonthebasisofmyFirstAmendmentrightsoffreespeechandassemblyandthelackofoversightauthority
• AttorneysGeneralofNewYorkandMassachusettsareinvestigatingExxonMobilforinvestorandconsumerfraud
• PhilippineCommissiononHumanRightsareinvestigating40CarbonMajorsforhumanrightsviolations
• What’snext?
Sphereofallwateronearth,r=~700km SphereofatmosphereatStandardTemperature&Pressure