Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) in „Modell Deutschland“
CCS in Germany – the „future“ lies in industry
Matthias Kopp, WWF Germany
28.10.2010
Datum: XX. XXX 2010 Kampagne „Klimaschutz anpacken!“ Seite: 2
Context of Blueprint Germany
- Objective: Staying below 2°C warming compared to pre-industrial levels
- requires GHG-emissions reductions in 2050:
- by 60-80% globally- by up to 95% for
industrialised countries
Datum: XX. XXX 2010 Kampagne „Klimaschutz anpacken!“ Seite: 3
Guidings questions:
• How does one achieve a 95 % reduction in GHG in a „ripe“ industrial society?- Achievable in a world „as we
know it“?- How far does technology
help?- What needs to be
fundamentally changed?- Does policy currently set the
right guidelines?
• Authors: Prognos and Öko-Institut
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Outline of study mechanics - scenarios
-1,000
-900
-800
-700
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
mln
t C
O2e
vs
2005
Inno
vatio
n S
cena
rio
R
efer
ence
Sce
nario
Blu
eprin
t Ger
man
y
Reference ScenarioContinuation of recent energy and climate policies(beyond the business-as-usual)
Innovation ScenarioIndicative 95% reduction target, but:restrictions on CCS und biomass use
Blueprint GermanyBased on the Innovation Scenario, but: CCS for industrial processes and biofuel production as well as biofuel use for aviation and biogas use in industry
2050 vs 1990-45 … -50%
2050 vs 1990-86 … -87%
2050 vs 1990-94 … -95%
Prognos/Öko-Institut for WWF 2009
Datum: XX. XXX 2010 Kampagne „Klimaschutz anpacken!“ Seite: 5
• Available: sufficient technologies and options will be available to reduce GHG emission by 95% compared to 1990 in a highly industrialized country
• Achievable: a 95% GHG emission reduction can be achieved– if the windows of opportunity are used (60% of reduction is related
to long-living capital stocks)– if the necessary innovation is triggered (60% of reduction depends
on innovative technologies and options)• Affordable: 0.3% of GDP on average, 0.6% at the maximum• All sectors must deliver significant emission reductions, key role
of power, industry and transport
However,• ‘Uncomfortable’ debates emerge: biofuels, CCS, central and
decentral lock-ins
The ‘Blueprint Germany‘ project at a glance
Datum: XX. XXX 2010 Kampagne „Klimaschutz anpacken!“ Seite: 6
Full de-carbonization & more will be needed:- aggregated emissions need to be focussed on
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1990 2005 2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050
t C
O2
e p
er
ca
p
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
bn
t C
O2
e f
rom
20
05
Other GHG - Per capita emissions
CO2 - Per capita emissions
Other GHG - Cumulative emissions from 2005
CO2 - Cumulative emissions from 2005
History Reference scenario Innovation scenario Blueprint Germany
Prognos/Öko-Institut for WWF 2009
… aggregated emissions need to be considered and timing of emissions reduction effects will be critically important
Datum: XX. XXX 2010 Kampagne „Klimaschutz anpacken!“ Seite: 7
-1,000
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-100
0
2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Mio
. t C
O2-
Äq
u. g
gü
. 200
5
Andere
Landnutzung und Forsten
Landwirtschaft
Abfallwirtschaft
Industrieprozesse
Brennstoffwechsel (fossil)
Elektrifizierung
Erneuerbare Energien
Andere Energieeffizienz
Effizienz Gebäude
Effizienz Stromanwendung
NachfragenIn
nov
atio
ns-S
zena
rio
Re
fere
nz-S
zen
ario
Mod
ell D
euts
chla
nd
Energy efficiency
Emission reduction contributions delivered by components: 1) Energy efficiency, 2) renewables & 3) more
Renewables
Other measures
Add’l reductions: add’l biofuels/biogas, CCS
Prognos/Öko-Institut for WWF 2009
EE
RES
Other
Datum: XX. XXX 2010 Kampagne „Klimaschutz anpacken!“ Seite: 8
Emission reduction contributions A fresh look on priorities is needed
-the appropriate timing of modernization is key for 60% of reductions if one reflects the long-living capital stocks – same is true for innovation
Prognos/Öko-Institut for WWF 2009
-1,000
-900
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0
2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Mio
. t C
O2-
Äq
u. g
gü
. 200
5
Less long-living capitral stock
Land-use (change) and forestry
Agriculture
Waste sector
Industrial processes
Fuel switch (fossil fuels)
Electrification
Renewables
Efficiency other applications
Efficiency buildings
Efficiency electric appliances
Demand patternsIn
nova
tion
Sce
nar
io
R
efe
renc
e S
cen
ario
Blu
epri
nt G
erm
any
60%
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CCS – numbers:
Datum: XX. XXX 2010 Kampagne „Klimaschutz anpacken!“ Seite: 13
Strategic planning and instrumentation
• All sectors – remaining energy near complete – CCS for remainder, process related industrial emissions
• Early uptake of CCS in biomass-conversion for net-sink capacities
• In remaining fossil fired capacities – from 2040 latest CCS retrofit required (this includes gas)
• CCS prioritised in industrial emissions !!! CCS law to reflect this strategic requirement/ demonstration plants needed
for robust evaluation of technology
Datum: XX. XXX 2010 Kampagne „Klimaschutz anpacken!“ Seite: 14
Powersector specifics:
• No new coal fired power stations;• Rapid (asap) demonstration in pilot-sites• thinking about a „Deutscher CCS-Entwicklungsplan“ for risk
assessments and strategic planning of:- Potentials- Required infrastructure- Planning guidelines for sub-surface potentials (conflicts, competing uses,
prioritisation)• „Deutschen Energie-Infrastruktur-Umbauprogramm“ to initiate and
trigger off investment and commitments also for CO2 infrastructure (potentially combined with grid-planning for electricity)
Datum: XX. XXX 2010 Kampagne „Klimaschutz anpacken!“ Seite: 15
Herzlicher Dank!
Matthias KoppWWF Deutschland
[email protected]+49 30 30 87 42 17
Datum: XX. XXX 2010 Kampagne „Klimaschutz anpacken!“ Seite: 16
Rahmendaten
• Bis 2050 nimmt die Bevölkerung um 12,5% ab• BSP ist 2050 ca. 1/3 über dem Niveau von 2005 (CAGR 0,7%)• Industrie wächst um ca. 20% bis 2050 • Ölpreise in 2050: nominal 429 USD, real 210 USD• Biomasse Potenzial: 1200 PJ Primärenergie • Verkehrssektor
- Personenverkehr: vergleichbar mit heute - Güterverkehr steigt bis 2050 um 86%