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National Bank of Cambodia Riel. Stability. Development.
Seminar on “Crystal Ball” Year Ahead29 January 2019
Cambodia’s Macroeconomic Development
1
Presented by: CHEA Serey (H.E.)
Assistant Governor/Director General of Central Banking
National Bank of Cambodia
The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of the NBC.
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National Bank of Cambodia Riel. Stability. Development.
Content
I. Macroeconomic Performance
II. Banking sector’s Development
III.Dollarization in Cambodia
IV.Opportunities and Challenges
2
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National Bank of Cambodia Riel. Stability. Development.3
I- Macroeconomic Performance
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National Bank of Cambodia Riel. Stability. Development.
Real GDP Growth in ASEAN
(In percent, y-o-y, 2018estimate)
Source: NIS and IMF
7.36.8 6.6 6.5 6.4
5.14.7 4.6
2.9
2.3
4
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National Bank of Cambodia Riel. Stability. Development.
Contribution to Economic Growth
(In percent, y-o-y, 2010-2018 estimated)
Source: NIS and NBC staff calculation
6.0
7.1 7.3 7.4 7.1 7.0 6.9 7.0 7.3
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018e
%
Agriculture Garment & Footwear Construction
Services Others Growth
5
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National Bank of Cambodia Riel. Stability. Development.
Growth in Real GDP and by Sectors
(In percent, y-o-y, 1995-2019 projection)
Source: NIS and NBC staff calculation
2
11
7
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Agriculture Industry Service Growth
6
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National Bank of Cambodia Riel. Stability. Development.
Gross International Reserves
(In billion US dollars, 1998-2019projection)
Source: NBC
0.4
2.2
10.1
11.3
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Gross International Reserves = 5 moths of prospective imports of goods and services
7
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National Bank of Cambodia Riel. Stability. Development.
Nominal exchange rate Riel/USD
Source: NBC
3600
3700
3800
3900
4000
4100
4200
4300
4400
Jan
-01
Jun-0
1N
ov-0
1A
pr-
02
Sep
-02
Feb
-03
Jul-
03
Dec
-03
May
-04
Oct
-04
Mar
-05
Au
g-0
5Ja
n-0
6Ju
n-0
6N
ov-0
6A
pr-
07
Sep
-07
Feb
-08
Jul-
08
Dec
-08
May
-09
Oct
-09
Mar
-10
Au
g-1
0Ja
n-1
1Ju
n-1
1N
ov-1
1A
pr-
12
Sep
-12
Feb
-13
Jul-
13
Dec
-13
May
-14
Oct
-14
Mar
-15
Au
g-1
5Ja
n-1
6Ju
n-1
6N
ov-1
6A
pr-
17
Sep
-17
Feb
-18
Jul-
18
Dec
-18
Last two decades’ average exchange rate: 4025 Riels/USD
8
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National Bank of Cambodia Riel. Stability. Development.
Contribution to Inflation and Core Inflation
(In percent, y-o-y, Jan-2017 to Dec-2018 )
Source: NIS and NBC staff calculation
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Jan
-17
Feb
-17
Mar
-17
Ap
r-1
7
May
-17
Jun
-17
Jul-
17
Au
g-1
7
Sep
-17
Oct
-17
No
v-1
7
Dec
-17
Jan
-18
Feb
-18
Mar
-18
Ap
r-1
8
May
-18
Jun
-18
Jul-
18
Au
g-1
8
Sep
-18
Oct
-18
No
v-1
8
Dec
-18
%
Foods Oil related items Core items Inflation
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
Mar
-10
Jun-1
0S
ep-1
0D
ec-1
0M
ar-1
1Ju
n-1
1S
ep-1
1D
ec-1
1M
ar-1
2Ju
n-1
2S
ep-1
2D
ec-1
2M
ar-1
3Ju
n-1
3S
ep-1
3D
ec-1
3M
ar-1
4Ju
n-1
4S
ep-1
4D
ec-1
4M
ar-1
5Ju
n-1
5S
ep-1
5D
ec-1
5M
ar-1
6Ju
n-1
6S
ep-1
6D
ec-1
6M
ar-1
7Ju
n-1
7S
ep-1
7D
ec-1
7M
ar-1
8Ju
n-1
8S
ep-1
8D
ec-1
8
Two decades’ average inflation: 3.5%
9
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National Bank of Cambodia Riel. Stability. Development.
Inflation Forecasting
(In percent, y-o-y, 2017Q1-2019Q4projection)
Source: NBC
2,7 2,52,7
2,5
0
1
2
3
4
5
Projection
Q1 Q3Q2 Q4
2017
Q1 Q2 Q4
2018
Q1 Q2 Q3Q3 Q4
2019
%
10
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National Bank of Cambodia Riel. Stability. Development.11
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Australia UK
Stock of FDI from Australia and UK to Cambodia
(In million of US dollar, 2013-2018e)
Source: Council Development Cambodia
FDI is estimated to grow by 12% in 2018, mainly from China, Korea and Taiwan
FDI from Australia accounted for 1.4% of total stock of FDI, mainly to banking and
construction sector
FDI from UK accounted for 3% of total stock of FDI, majorly to garment and footwear.
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National Bank of Cambodia Riel. Stability. Development.12
Exports to Australia slowly increased. Main export products in 2018 are i/-
cereals ii/- textiles and textile articles and iii/- Footwear
Imports from Australia jumped. Main import products are: i/- Vegetable products
and ii/- Mineral products.
0.11 0.15 0.130.19 0.15
0.25
0.90
1.131.07 1.02
0.940.85
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Imports Export Share of total imports (right) Share of total exports (right)
Bilateral trade between Cambodia and Australia
(2003-2018e)Million USD %
Source: General Department Customs and Excise of Cambodia
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National Bank of Cambodia Riel. Stability. Development.13
Exports to UK slightly rose. Main export products in 2018 are i/- textiles and
textile articles and ii/- Vehicles and parts
Imports from UK widened. Main import products are: i/-Machinery and
mechanical appliances and ii/- Vehicles and parts.
0.16 0.14 0.13 0.34 0.27 0.45
10.8 10.5 10.5
9.3 8.98.0
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Imports Export Share of total imports (right) Share of total exports (right)
Bilateral trade between Cambodia and UK
(2003-2018e)Million USD %
Source: General Department Customs and Excise of Cambodia
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National Bank of Cambodia Riel. Stability. Development.14
China34%
Vietnam13%Laos
6%
Thai6%
South Korea5%
US4%
Japan3%
Malaysia3%
France3%
United Kingdom3%
Taiwan2%
Australia2% Others
16%
Tourist Arrivals by Country to Cambodia in 2018
Source: Ministry of Tourism
Tourist arrivals were estimated to increase by 11.5%, y-o-y, mainly supported by
Chinese tourists. Other tourists beside Chinese, Malaysia and Taiwan registered a
negative annual growth rate including UK (-6%) and Australia (-7%)
UK and Australia ranked the 10th and 12th in 2018, which totally accounted for
approximately 5% of total visitors.
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National Bank of Cambodia Riel. Stability. Development.15
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National Bank of Cambodia Riel. Stability. Development.
Cambodian Banking sector (Banks+MDIs+MFIs) has been rapidly developed which supports the
robust economic growth over the last decade.
-Assets/GDP 20%
-Credits/GDP 6.4%
-Deposits/GDP 12%
-Assets/GDP 44%
-Credits/GDP 26%
-Deposits/GDP 22%
-Assets/GDP 173%
-Credits/GDP 102%
-Deposits/GDP 92%
Source: NBC
16
1,078 14,707
100,429
2,094
16,516
90,123
3,350
28,424
171,545
2002 2010 2018
Credit
Deposit
Assets (Billion Riel)
Banking Sector’s Expansion
16
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National Bank of Cambodia Riel. Stability. Development.
Banks’ credit has diversified to mainly: Wholesale and Retail Trade (28%),Household and mortgage 16%, construction 9%, and agricultural sector 9,4%.
While, the MFIs’ credits are mainly distributed to household 33%, agriculture 22%, trade22% and service sector 11%.
Banking Sector’s Credit to Economic Sector(as at end of 2018)
Source: NBC
Credit from Banks to Economic Sectors Credit from MFIs to Economic Sectors
Retail Trade, 17.0%
Wholesale Trade, 11.2%
Restaurant and Hotel,
4.9%
Manufacturing, 5.5%Construction,
9.1%Household, 7.6%
Agriculture, 9.4%
Real Estate Related, 7.0%
Mortgage, 9.8%
Others, 18.5% Agriculture, 21.81%
Trade, 22.26%
Service, 10.68%
Transportation, 5.07%
Construction, 4.15%
Household, 32.62%
Others, 3.41%
Source: NBC
17
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National Bank of Cambodia Riel. Stability. Development.
Financial Inclusion(2008-2018)
Depositors has increased to 6 millions (growth 13%) and borrowers increase to 2.85 millions (growth 3%) which increase the financial inclusion rate to 68% in 2018.
Source: NBC
1.1
2.86
0.86
6.169%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
ចំនួនអ្នកខ្ច ីប្រាក់ ចំនួនអ្នកដាក់ប្រាក់បញ ញ្ ើ អ្ប្រាបរយិាប័ននហិរ ញ្ វត្ថ ុ(ខាងស្ត )ំ
million users
Number of Borrowers Number of Depositors Financial Inclusion Rate (RHS)
18
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National Bank of Cambodia Riel. Stability. Development.
Banking Sector’s Capital Position
(2011-2018)
Banking sector’s capital remains strong. The banks’ average solvency ratio remains high around 21% and MFIs’ average solvency ratio is around 25% while the current solvency ratio minimum requirement is 15%.
21%
25%
15%
18%
21%
24%
27%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
គ រ្ឹះស្ថា នធនាគារ គ រ្ឹះស្ថា នមីគរូហិរញ្ញវត្ាុMinimum requirement 15%
Banks MFIs
Source: NBC
19
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National Bank of Cambodia Riel. Stability. Development.
Banks and MDIs have maintained their liquidity position as higher than the
minimum requirement, Commercial bank 168% and MDIs 188%.
Source: NBC
168%188%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
350%
400%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018គ រ្ឹះស្ថា នធនាគារ គ រ្ឹះស្ថា នមីគរូហិរញ្ញវត្ាុCommercial Banks Microfinance Taking Deposit
Liquidity Ratio (2011-2015) replaced by
Liquidity Coverage Ratio (2016-2018)
The LCR was implemented in 2016 with limit:
- 2018: 80%
- 2019 June: 90%
- 2020 Jan: 100%
Banking Sector’s Liquidity Position
(2011-2018)
20
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National Bank of Cambodia Riel. Stability. Development.
Banking sectors’ NPL ratio remains low reflecting from Banks’ NPL ratio around 2.8%
and MFIs NPL ratio around 1% in 2018.
Banking Sector’s Credit Quality(2010-2018)
Source: NBC
1.2%
0.2% 0.3%
0.6% 0.6%0.8%
1.0%
2.0%
1%
3.1%
2.4% 2.5%2.7%
2.2%2.0%
3.1%
2.3%
2.8%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
MFIs NPL Ratio Banks NPL Ratio
21
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National Bank of Cambodia Riel. Stability. Development.
Payment System Development
NCS
R T G S
Development of payment system infrastructure
22
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National Bank of Cambodia Riel. Stability. Development.
Payment System Infrastructure
NCSNBCP
Remittance
Mobile Banking and Internet Banking
e-Transportatione-Government
Payment Service Institutions
e-Commerce
FINTECH Start-up
23
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National Bank of Cambodia Riel. Stability. Development.
III- Dollarization in Cambodia
24
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National Bank of Cambodia Riel. Stability. Development.
Beginning of political and economic
instability in Cambodia
18/03/1970: Coup d’état
17/04/1975: Khmer Rouge
revolution
No market! No monetary system! No
money!
07/01/1979: Liberation from KR
Riel banknotes were reintroduced on March 20, 1980
Early 1990s: Dissolution of
the USSR
Monetization of fiscal deficit, hyperinflation
and inflow of USD through UNTAC
History of dollarization in Cambodia
25
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National Bank of Cambodia Riel. Stability. Development.
Share of USD deposit in M2 & in total deposit
84.3
94.8
36.3
83.2
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
FCD/M2 FCD/TD
Source: NBC
26
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National Bank of Cambodia Riel. Stability. Development.
Riel in Circulation in Billion
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
307
9,992
Source: NBC
27
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National Bank of Cambodia Riel. Stability. Development.
Negotiable Certificate of Deposits (NCDs)
Source: NBC
USD NCDs KHR NCDs
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
0
5
10
15
20
25
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Issued Amount Outstanding Amount Number of NCDs
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Issued Amount Outstanding Amount Number of NCDs
In Billion USD Number of NCDs In Trillion Riel Number of NCDs
(RHS) (RHS)
28
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National Bank of Cambodia Riel. Stability. Development.
Development of LPCO since October 2016
138
465
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Oct
-16
No
v-1
6
Dec
-16
Jan
-17
Feb
-17
Mar
-17
Ap
r-1
7
May
-17
Jun
-17
Jul-
17
Au
g-1
7
Sep
-17
Oct
-17
No
v-1
7
Dec
-17
Jan
-18
Feb
-18
Mar
-18
Ap
r-1
8
May
-18
Jun
-18
Jul-
18
Au
g-1
8
Sep
-18
Oct
-18
No
v-1
8
Dec
-18
LPCO
(in billion of Riel)
Bidding Amount
Outstanding Amount 2.70
2.60
2.95 2.86
3.05
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
Oct
-16
No
v-1
6
Dec
-16
Jan
-17
Feb
-17
Mar
-17
Ap
r-1
7
May
-17
Jun
-17
Jul-
17
Au
g-1
7
Sep
-17
Oct
-17
No
v-1
7
Dec
-17
Jan
-18
Feb
-18
Mar
-18
Ap
r-1
8
May
-18
Jun
-18
Jul-
18
Au
g-1
8
Sep
-18
Oct
-18
No
v-1
8
Dec
-18
3months 6months 1year
Interest Rate of
LPCO
Source: NBC
29
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National Bank of Cambodia Riel. Stability. Development.
III- Opportunities and Challenges
30
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National Bank of Cambodia Riel. Stability. Development.
Opportunities
- Peace and Stability- Highly opened and integrated economy- Access to preferential schemes- Special Economic Zone- Geographic dividend- Demographic dividend (Young population)- Potentials of tourism & agricultural sectors
31
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National Bank of Cambodia Riel. Stability. Development.
Challenges- Narrow economic base- Less of domestic production- Climate change
Risks- Spillovers from global rise in protectionism- Erosion of competitiveness (high production cost,
strong USD, loss preferential schemes- Tighter global financial condition- High credit growth to construction & real estate
32
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National Bank of Cambodia Riel. Stability. Development.
Thank You
33