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Caltrain ServicePreparing for FY2012
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Caltrain Benefits –Environment, Economy, Quality of Life
• If traveling via automobile, Caltrain riders wouldincrease regional CO2 emissions by 89,850 metrictons or 198,085,342 pounds
• Existing and future Peninsula transit-orienteddevelopment is dependent on Caltrain service
• 74% of Caltrains nearly 40,000 daily riders usethe train to commute to work
• Caltrain reduces regional congestion byaccommodating 300 million annual passenger miles
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Current Environment
• Reinvention in 2004 and 2005 led to serviceincreases, which led to increases in ridership,revenues
• Due to economic conditions, financial supportfrom JPB partners is unstable
• State funding for transit operations remainsuncertain
• SamTrans
structural deficit initiated areduction in its member contribution to theJPB in FY2011 and will continue in FY2012
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Current Environment continued
• Caltrain is the only Bay Area transit systemwithout a permanent, dedicated source of funding, resulting in a continuing structuraldeficit
• To balance the budget in FY2010 andFY2011, service was reduced• Caltrain has relied on one-time funds to
balance prior budgets; this is unsustainable
• JPB is selecting a new contract operator for Caltrain; the selection process is expected toconclude by the end of calendar year 2011.
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Service Overview
• 77-mile route from SF to Gilroy
• 32 stations in 19 cities
• Weekday Service
• 86 Weekday trains• 22 Baby Bullets
• Five trains per peak commute hour
• Weekend Service• 36 trains on Saturday (4-train Baby
Bullet pilot project)
• 32 trains on Sunday (4-train Baby Bulletpilot project)
• Peak Service was 98 trains in 2009
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Ridership Trends
Caltrain Average Weekday Ridership
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
1 9 9 5
1 9 9 6
1 9 9 7
1 9 9 8
1 9 9 9
2 0 0 0
2 0 0 1
2 0 0 2
2 0 0 3
2 0 0 4
2 0 0 5
2 0 0 6
2 0 0 7
2 0 0 8
2 0 0 9
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1 *
Height of dot com boom
Dot com bust
June 2004Introduction of Baby
Bullet Express Service
Ridership has benefited from the reinvention of Caltrain service: averageweekday ridership has increased by 44% since 2004
Source: Annual passenger counts done each February * Projected ridership in FY2011
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Ridership DemographicsCaltrain primarily serves commuters in a bidirectional commute.
• Nearly 25% of Caltrain riders board in San Francisco, with additional riders spreadrelatively evenly throughout the Peninsula corridor
• The top 10 stations are served by Baby Bullets
• Nearly 80% of all ridership board at the top 10 stations
Source: 2010 Annual Passenger Counts
Weekday Passenger Boardings
Hillsdale
5.0%
Sunnyvale
4.7%
San Mateo
3.5%
Other 20.4%
San
Francisco
23.6%
Palo Alto
10.6%
San Jose
7.3%
Mountain
View
8.9%Redwood
City 5.5%
Menlo Park
3.7%
Millbrae
6.8%
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Farebox Recovery Ratio ComparisonBay Area
Caltrain has a higher farebox recovery ratio compared with other bay area transit agencies.
Sources: * FY2009 NTD Report ** A combined ratio of both bus and light rail
Other ratios are from the MTC Statistical Summary of Bay Area Transit Operators (May 2010) for FY2009
17.8%
47.4%
19.4% 18.7% 17.5%14.2%
22.1%
62.3%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
AC
Transit
BART Caltrain* Golden
Gate
Transit
(Bus)
Muni
(Bus)
Muni
(Light
Rail)
SamTrans VTA**
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Farebox Recovery Ratio Comparison
Commuter Railroads
Sources: FY2009 NTD Reports
47.4%
51.2%
18.4%
58.9%
9.5%14.0%
46.1%
36.7%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
CalTrain ACE VRE LIRR Tri-Rail Coaster
(NCTD)
Front Runner
(UTA)
Rail Runner
(Rio Metro
RTD)
Caltrains farebox recovery ratio is comparable with other commuter railsystems in the country.
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Administrative Staff Cost Percentage
Comparison
16.7%
7.9%
15.2%
12.9%
10.2%
5.9%
0.0%
4.0%
8.0%
12.0%
16.0%
20.0%
Caltrain ACE
(Stockton)
VRE
(Virginia)
TRI-Rail
(Florida)
Rail Runner
(New
Mexico)
Metrolink
(Los
Angeles)
Source: FY2009 NTD Reports
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Operating Expenses per Vehicle
Revenue Mile
$15.91$14.90
$17.64$17.90
$12.62
$27.12
$0.00
$5.00
$10.00
$15.00
$20.00
$25.00
$30.00
Caltrain ACE
(Stockton)
VRE
(Virginia)
TRI-Rail
(Florida)
Rail Runner
(New
Mexico)
Metrolink
(Los
Angeles)
Source: FY2009 NTD Reports
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Cost Control & Revenue Measures
• Caltrain already operates with a lean staffing level,with the cost of the administrative staff currently atapproximately 6.4% of total budget*
• Since FY 2009, administrative staff salaries have
been frozen• Since FY 2009, each administrative employee is
subject to 17 furlough days
• In 2011, fares were increased 25-cents per zoneand GoPass rates were increased to $155 from
$140• In 2011, four midday trains were eliminated
* Source: FY2011 Revised Budget
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Costs
• Certain fixed-level costs arenecessary for the operation of therailroad, including maintenance
activities, security services andinsurance
• Rail operator service costs arecontractual
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Member Agency Operating Contributions
• Member Agencies provide operating contributions to the JPBaccording to the Joint Powers Agreement (JPA)
• The JPA provides that each member subsidizes the operatingbudget based upon each countys morning peak hour boarding
• In FY2006, the Members agreed to an annual increase of 3%― If contributions exceed expenses, excess deposited in a
reserve account
• Since FY2009, Member contributions have been frozen
• In FY2011, SamTrans did one-time fund swap to keep its
contribution near current levels• Due to funding constraints the FY2011 contributions from each
partner from each member reduced slightly from FY2010
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Member Agency Operating Contributions
$15.6 $16.0 $16.5 $16.5 $14.7
$15.0 $15.4 $15.9 $15.9$14.1
$6.6 $6.8 $7.0 $7.0
$6.2
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011*
M i l l i o n s
SamTrans VTA CCSF
Historical Member Agency Operating Contributions
Sources: FY2007-2010 Financial Statement & FY2011 Adopted Budget*Note: SamTrans initiated a reduction in its share which reduced the
other JPB partners shares proportionately
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Member Contributions Comparisons San Francisco SamTrans VTA Total
(SFMTA)
FY2011 Adopted
Operating Contribution$6,246,947 $14,707,875 $14,135,309 $35,090,130
FY2012 projected
Operating Contribution (Scenarios A&B)
$2,038,727 $4,800,000 $4,613,140 $11,451,867
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Service and Budget Levels – FY20122 Potential Scenarios; each withprojected deficits:
• Current Service• 86 weekday trains
Projected deficit = ($30.3 million)
• What We Can Afford• 48 weekday trainsProjected Deficit = ($4.7 million)
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Service and Budget Levels – FY2012
Current Service
86 weekday trainsProjected deficit = ($30.3 million)
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Current Service – 86 Weekday Trains
FY2012 Projection (in millions)
FY2012
Revenue $ 72.6
Expenses (102.9)
Deficit ($30.3)
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What We Can Afford?
48 weekday trainsProjected deficit = ($4.7 million)
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FY2012 Projected Operating Budget
What We Can Afford, One Scenario -- 48weekday trains:
• Weekday train schedule of 48 trains to maximize the
efficiency of crews and equipment and fare revenue.
- No weekend or special service
- Service eliminated south of Diridon San Jose
- Closure of additional up to 7 Peninsula stations out of
23 on the mainline
• Commensurate decreases in farebox revenue, operatingcontract and administrative costs
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What We Can Afford – 48 Weekday Trains
FY2012 Projection (in millions)
FY2012
Revenue $ 53.3Expenses (58.0)
Deficit ($4.7)
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Next Steps
• Continue development of operating scenarios
- Current service requires significant additional resources to fundthe projected shortfall
- Service cuts contained within What We Can Afford scenario
require public hearings in February/March to realize a fullyear s worth of revenue and operational savings; requireexpedited negotiations with the next Caltrain contract operator on the reduced-service model
• Continue efforts to advocate for capital projects that willincrease operational efficiencies
• Continue advocacy efforts to secure external funding
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Achieving Financial Sustainability
• Requires multiple steps, multiple strategies
Short Term
– Address current deficit projection for FY2012
– Maximize revenues
– Maximize cost-cutting measures and costcontainment
Long Term
– Modernize and electrify Caltrain
– Permanent, dedicated revenue source