Download - Business leaders' briefing 24.09.2014
12 April 2023
Business Leaders’ Briefing
Sarah StewartChief Executive, NewcastleGateshead Initiative
Karen MatthewManaging Director, John Lewis, Newcastle
Welcome and introductionSarah Stewart, Chief Executive, NewcastleGateshead Initiative
Gold partners
Have the green shoots of economic recovery reached the North East?• Neil Saunders, Chief Executive, Conlumino.
• Tom Warburton, Director of Investment & Development, Newcastle City Council.
• Panel Q&A chaired by Paul Callaghan.
– with Dianne Sharp, Regional Director, CBI & Chris Milne, Chief Economist, NELEP.
• Chair’s summary.
Neil SaundersChief Executive, Conlumino
CONLUMINO CONSUMER SENTIMENT TRACKER JULY 2014 PAGE 8
RETAIL AND THERECOVERY
CONLUMINO
CONFIDENCE IS FRAGILE
Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14
-45.0-43.9-43.1
-28.0-26.0-28.8
-6.0 -7.3 -9.2-3.5
-6.3-2.0
7.10.7 1.4 2.6 3.3
-0.6
13.2
0.1
HOW DO YOU EXPECT THE ECONOMY TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT SIX MONTHS?INDEX, BETTER MINUS WORSE
REGIONAL CONFIDENCE
ECONOMY CHANGE OVER NEXT SIX MONTHSINDEX
REGION INDEX THIS YEAR
UK national -1.8
South East 7.8
London 7.5
West Midlands 6.7
East Midlands 3.2
Northern Ireland -0.1
East Anglia -1.7
North West -3.7
South West -4.6
Wales -8.2
Yorkshire & Humberside -8.7
North East -15.8
Scotland -16.0
INCOME GROWTH IS WEAK
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
1.1 1.2
-0.8-1.1
-0.7
-0.20.1
0.6
1.10.9
1.1
DISPOSABLE INCOME GROWTH YEAR-ON-YEAR PERCENTAGE GROWTH
RETAIL IS IN GROWTH
Health
, bea
uty
Food
& G
roce
ry
Cloth
ing
Tota
l
Homew
ares
Furn
iture
, floo
ring
Elec
trica
ls
DIY &
Gar
denin
g
Other
Home
Ent
4.1 3.9 3.2 2.61.6 1.0 0.8 0.4
-0.5
-8.0
RETAIL SPENDING GROWTH RATES FOR 2014PERCENT
RETAIL IS IN GROWTH
RETAIL SPENDING GROWTH RATES FOR 2014 BY REGIONPERCENT
3.6
2.9 2.7 2.6 2.62.1
1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.2
RETAIL GROWTH TRENDS
1993-20021983-1992 2003-2012 2013-2022
4.5%
7.0%
1.9%
?
RETAIL SPENDING GROWTH RATES OVER PERIODSAVERAGE ANNUAL PERCENTAGE
GOLDEN DRIVERS OF GROWTH
Easy credit and low(ish) debt
Stable and low interest rates
Rapidly rising house prices
Stableeconomy
Easy to live beyond income
growth
Low mortgage repayments
Mortgage equity withdrawal
Solid consumer sentiment
ARE NOW TARNISHED
Easy credit and low(ish) debt
Stable and low interest rates
Rapidly rising house prices
Stableeconomy
Easy to live beyond income
growth
Low mortgage repayments
Mortgage equity withdrawal
Solid consumer sentiment
High debtLow, but rising interest rates
Slowly risinghouse prices
Improving but uncertainoutlook
Living within means
Higher mortgage repayments
Repaying mortgage
debt
Soft and choppy sentiment
INTEREST RATES
RISE STABLE FALL
28.9%
53.8%66.1%
44.1%5.0%
2.1%
WHAT CONSUMERS THINK WILL HAPPEN TO RATES OVER SIX MONTHSPERCENT, 2013 TOP AND 2014 BOTTOM
IMPACT OF RATE RISES
RATES RISE TO1.0%
RATES STAY AT0.5%
RATES RISE TO1.5%
RATES RISE TO2.0%
8.6%7.7% 10.2% 14.9%
HOUSEHOLDS WITH OVER 30% OF DISPOSABLE INCOME ON REPAYMENTSPERCENTAGE
RETAIL GROWTH TRENDS
1993-20021983-1992 2003-2012 2013-2022
4.5%
7.0%
1.9%
2.6%
RETAIL SPENDING GROWTH RATES OVER PERIODSAVERAGE ANNUAL PERCENTAGE
RETAIL SPEND FORECAST
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
3.0
3.6
2.5
1.3 1.51.1 0.9
1.7
2.6
3.12.6
2.9
2.22.4
RETAIL SPENDING GROWTH PERCENT
THE CHALLENGE FOR RETAIL
INDULGENT
ESSENTIAL
IMPORTANT
54.1%
29.2%
16.7%
RETAIL IN 2013 WAS WORTH £316.7BN
CONSEQUENCES
COMPETITIVE FORCES STRONG
ECONOMY IMPROVING
WINNERS AND LOSERS
DEMOCRATIC
INNOVATION AND INSPIRATION
CONLUMINO CONSUMER SENTIMENT TRACKER JULY 2014 PAGE 23
Twitter: @neilretailEmail: [email protected]
CONLUMINO
Tom WarburtonDirector of Investment & Development, Newcastle City Council
Helping make Newcastle a Working City
Overview ofNorth East LEP area
Number of businesses in the UK private sector per 10,000 adults, start of 2013
Taken from BIS (https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/254552/13-92-business-population-estimates-2013-stats-release-4.pdf)
Our approach• Supporting business and
enterprise• An enabling infrastructure• Investment for growth and jobs• Employment and skills• Working with others – partners
in city, NELEP, core cities, OneNorth (transport investment)
Maintaining pace with the expected UK recovery over the next four years, would point to an increase in jobs in Newcastle of about 6,000.
Source: Office for budget responsibility and NCC calculations
Looking to the future
AcceleratedDevelopmentZone
Stimulating development
Not just city centre• Investment in crane, quay, sites and
road• Improving broadband across city,
including vouchers for superfast• New jobs in Longbenton• Tech sector – Campus North,
Dynamo• International promotion
Paul CallaghanChair, NewcastleGateshead Initiative
Panel Q&A session
• Neil Saunders, Chief Executive, Conlumino.
• Tom Warburton, Director of Investment & Development, Newcastle City Council.
• Dianne Sharp, Regional Director, CBI.
• Chris Milne, Chief Economist, NELEP.
SummaryPaul Callaghan, Chair, NewcastleGateshead Initiative
Thank you
12 April 2023
Business Leaders’ Briefing