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BUFKIT for BUFKIT for BalloonistsBalloonists
Jay Trobec, Ph.D.KELOLAND TVSioux Falls, SD
jaytrobec.com
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Questions we will answerQuestions we will answer
How do I install the free software on my computer?
What is a computer model?What does BUFKIT tell us about…
– Winds aloft?– Temperatures?– Inversions?– Fog/Precipitation forecasting?
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How do I install it on my How do I install it on my computer?computer?
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Computer modelsComputer models
Give us an approximation of the expected state of the atmosphere
They do not “forecast” the weather – interpretation is required
Three models are beneficial to balloonists, and can be displayed with BUFKIT software– NAM (North American Mesoscale)– GFS3 (Global Forecast System)– RUC (Rapid Update Cycle)
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BUFKIT dataBUFKIT data
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BUFKIT visual displayBUFKIT visual display
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NAM (also called the WRF) NAM (also called the WRF) ModelModel
Created at 0z (6 pm CST), 6z (midnight CST), 12z (6 am CST), and 18z (noon CST)
12 km resolution
1 hr increments
84 hrs
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GFS ModelGFS Model
Created at 0z (6 pm CST), 6z (midnight CST), 12z (6 am CST), and 18z (noon CST)
0.5 deg lat/lon3 hr increments180 hrs
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RUC (also called RAP or HRRR) RUC (also called RAP or HRRR) ModelModel
Created every hour 13 km resolution 18 hrs
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BUFKIT Temperature/Wind DisplayBUFKIT Temperature/Wind Display
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BUFKIT Overview Wind DisplayBUFKIT Overview Wind Display
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Overview Clouds DisplayOverview Clouds Display
Sky Box Plotted Implied
.00 - .09 none Clear
.10 - .24 Single Cross Hatched Few
.25 - .49 Double Cross Hatched Scattered
.50 - .74 Gray Broken
.75 - 1.00 White Overcast
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Environmental Lapse Rate (ELR)Environmental Lapse Rate (ELR)
Decrease of temperature with altitude in a stationary atmosphere
0.5°C/100 meters3.5°F /1000 feet
1500 ft: 54.8°1500 ft: 54.8°
1000 ft: 56.51000 ft: 56.5°
500 ft: 58.3500 ft: 58.3°
Ground: 60°Ground: 60°
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Subsidence,
sinking air
under High
pressure
Temperature InversionTemperature Inversion
Thin layer in the atmosphere in which air temperature increases with height
Caused by:
Warm Fronts
or
Cold Fronts
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Subsidence InversionSubsidence Inversion
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Radiational InversionRadiational Inversion
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Effects of InversionEffects of Inversion
Speed of ascent slows when rising through subsidence layer
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Effects of InversionEffects of Inversion
Speed of descent slows when descending through layer
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Effects of InversionEffects of Inversion
Winds often have different directions/speeds above and below an inversion
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Inversion display on BUFKITInversion display on BUFKIT
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Fog forecastingFog forecasting
BUFKIT utilizes “crossover temperature” technique developed by UPS
Also assesses change in humidity with height, and atmospheric stability
Technique is designed for radiational fog, not advection or other types of fog
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