GLOBAL CITIES INITIATIVEA J O I N T P R OJ ECT O F B R O O K I N GS A N D J P M O R GA N C H AS E
Atlanta, GA / March 20, 2013@bruce_katz #globalcities
10.2 millionjobs needed
More Jobs
81 millionpoor or near poor in 2000
More Jobs & Better Jobs
107 millionpoor or near poor in 2011
More Jobs & Better Jobs
A vision for the next American economy
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1
2 3
The next economy will be largely metropolitan
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2
3
1 2 31 2
3 Metropolitan areas are driving innovation
METROINNOVATION
A vision for the next American economy
1 2 3
1
2 3
2009
Global GDP
19.9%US
21.0%BIC Countries
Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2010
2015
Global GDP
26.5%BIC Countries
17.9%US
Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2010
Global Metro Population
2030
60%
Source: UN Department of Economic-Social Affairs, World Urbanization Prospects, 2009
Economic Performance2011 - 2012
Highest Performing MetrosLowest Performing Metros
Source: Brookings, Global MetroMonitor, November 2012
Exports Share of GDP2010
13%
United States
29% 22%
15%
30%
Japan
China Canada India
European Union
15%
Source: Brookings analysis of WTO and EIU data, 2011
Transport Networks are Clogged and Congested
Can we get back into the export game?
billionUS manufactured exports 2010
$944
Japan
$680$944
United States GermanyFrance
$409
China
$1477
$1091
Top Manufacturing Exporting Countries2010, Billions
Source: World Trade Organization, 2011
$358
ServiceImports
ServiceExports
$518
US Service TradeBillions, 2010
$160 billiontrade surplus
Source: World Trade Organization, 2011 (Data reflect Commercial Services)
Can the U.S. play in thelow carbon revolution?
Sources: Brookings-Battelle Clean Economy Database (2011)
2.7 millionclean economy jobs
1.4 millionbiosciences jobs
4.8 millionIT jobs
2.4 millionfossil fuel jobs
2.7 millionclean economy jobs
Sources: Brookings-Battelle Clean Economy Database (2011), Brookings Analysis of Battelle, BLS, Moody’s Analytics data
$53.9 billionclean economy exports
Source: Brookings-Battelle Clean Economy Database (2011) and Moody’s Economy.com
$53.9 billionclean economy exports
NationalEconomy
$10,392
Export IntensityYearly Export Earnings per Job
$20,124
Clean Economy
Source: Brookings-Battelle Clean Economy Database (2011) and Moody’s Economy.com
Source: EOP “A Framework for Revitalizing American Manufacturing” (2009)Brookings “Accelerating Advanced Manufacturing with New Research Centers” (2011)
90%manufacturing share of patents
68%manufacturing share of R&D
35%manufacturingshare of engineers
Can the U.S. be anInnovation Nation?
US Names China On Intellectual-Property Watchlist
China's insufficient protection of intellectual property rights remains a top priority for U.S. trade policy, given the "troubling" direction of recent government measures aimed at supporting domestic innovation, the U.S. Trade Representative's office said Monday.
China Begins to Lose
Edge as World’s Factory
FloorJanuary 16, 2013
BEIJING - China is losing its competitive
edge as a low-cost manufacturing base, new
data suggest, with makers of everything
from handbags to shirts to basic electronic
components relocating to cheaper locales.
The shift - illustrated in weakened foreign
investment in China - has pluses and
minuses for an economy key to global
growth.
Shale Gas Fuels U.S. Manufacturing RenaissanceJanuary 10, 2013
Abundant, affordable domestic natural gas is helping to revitalize energy-intensive industries like petrochemical manufacturing.
“Looking back 20 years, chemicals were out nation’s top export product. But as recently as five years ago, we were on the verge of becoming an importer. Now the industry is back.
January 19, 2013The number of firms known to have “reshored” manufacturing to America is well under 100. Doubtless many more are doing so quietly. Examples range from the tiny, such as ET Water Systems, to the enormous, such as General Electric, which last year moved manufacturing of washing machines. fridges, and heaters back from China.
Reshoring Manufacturing: Coming Home
11%wage premiumin exporting firms
Source: Istrate, Rothwell & Katz, Export Nation (2010)
Greater likelihood of health and retirement benefits in export-intense industries
The U.S. must get smart...
fast
Source: US Census Bureau, 2010 American Community Survey
Hispanics
19%
African Americans
Non-Hispanic Whites
Asians
25%39%
56%
Educational AttainmentAssociate’s Degree or Higher
United States
36%
The next economy will be largely metropolitan
1 2 31
2
3
Source: Brookings analysis of US Bureau of Economic Analysis data
GeorgiaAtlanta, Augusta, Chattanooga
Population GDP
61% 66%
GeorgiaAtlanta, Augusta, Chattanooga
Population GDP
Albany, Athens, Brunswick, Columbus, Dalton, Gainesville, Hinesville, Macon, Rome, Savannah, Valdosta, Warner Robins
82% 87%
Service Exports
75%63%
Manufacturing Exports
Population
66%
Top 100 Metro ExportsShare of U.S. Totals
Source: Brookings, ExportNation 2012
Top 100 Metro Exports
Chemical Products
68% 76%
Business/Professional
Services
Computer/Electronic Products
78%
Population
66%
Share of U.S. Totals
Source: Brookings, ExportNation 2012
Top 100 Metro Trade Logistics
U.S. Air Cargo Weight
82% 88%
Foreign Waterborne
Cargo Weight
Airline Boardings
92%
Population
66%
Share of U.S. Totals
Source: Brookings analysis of US Census Bureau, FAA, and PIERS data (2009)
Aerial imagery: © DigitalGlobe, GeoEye, Sanborn, USGS, USDA FSA, warrior481.blogspot.com
Aerial imagery: © DigitalGlobe, GeoEye, Sanborn, USGS, USDA FSA, warrior481.blogspot.com
Logistics Hub Multi-National Corporations
World Class UniversitiesInternational Legacy of Olympics
142,416
US AtlantaMetro
ManufacturingIntensity
8.5%6.2%
Manufacturing JobsTop Manufacturing Sectors
Atlanta, GA Metro Manufacturing Dashboard
Food 16.5%Plastics & Rubber 8.1%Computers & Electronics 7.5%Fabricated Metal Products 6.8%Printing & Support Activities 6.4%
US AtlantaMetro
Manufacturing Growth
2010 Q1 - 2011 Q4
2.7%
4.3%
Source: Brookings, Locating American Manufacturing 2012
$20.0 B
Top 100Metros
AtlantaMetro
Export Intensity
9.8%8.0%
Export VolumeGoods & Services Exports
47.2%goods share of exports
Atlanta, GA Metro Export Dashboard
151,700Export Jobs
52.8%services share
of exports
Top Services SectorsTop Services Sectors
Travel & Tourism 18.9%
Business Services 12.1%
Royalties 6.8%
Top Goods SectorsTop Goods Sectors
Chemicals 7.9%
Transportation Equipment 6.3%
Food 6.2%
Source: Brookings, ExportNation 2012
Atlanta, GA Metro Export Dashboard
Source: Brookings, ExportNation 2012
Atlanta’s Top Export DestinationsBy 2010 Volume (in millions)
Canada
Mexico
Japan
United Kingdom
China
$3,070.3
$1,678.8
$1,430.4
$1,361.0
$1,028.6
Germany
Brazil
South Korea
France
Netherlands
$843.9
$621.3
$591.3
$507.8
$478.2
Atlanta, GA Metro Global Aviation Dashboard
Source: Brookings “Global Gateways: International Aviation in Metropolitan America” (2012)
Share of Atlanta Passenger Air Travel to Major Global Regions
By 2011 Total Passengers
Atlanta’s Top Air Travel ConnectionsBy 2011 Total Passengers
Latin America/Caribbean
Western Europe
North America
36.8%
Rest of World
24.9%10.8%
27.4%
Seoul 188,207
London
Toronto
Cancun
Montego Bay
185,587
177,215
165,260
97,117
Atlanta, GA Foreign Talent Dashboard
Sources: Brookings, State of Metropolitan America (2010), Geography of Immigrant Skills (2011), Demand for H-1B Immigrant Workers in US Metros (2012)
H-1B Demand Profile
8,309H-1B requests
12thof 106 metros
Immigrant Profile
13.5%immigrant
share of population
29thof 100 metros
AtlantaMetro
UnitedStates
2.4
3.6
17thof 106 metros
High SkilledLow Skilled Middle Skilled
27%
43%
30%28%
42%32%
Immigrant SkillsAge 25+
H-1B Requests per Capita
US Atlanta US Atlanta US Atlanta
1 2 31 2
3 Metropolitan areas are driving innovation
METROINNOVATION
Innovate Locally
Market AssessmentTarget Sectors
8% 9%12%
Economic Profile15%
12%
13%
9%
Establish Goals & Strategies
Boost SME exportsIncrease global fluency
Double exports Support key sectors
Governments
Philanthropy
Firms
Universities
Collaborate to CompeteLos Angeles
Minneapolis-Saint Paul
PortlandSyracuse
Metropolitan Export Planning
Metropolitan Export Planning
Portland
Target industries: computers and electronics, clean technology & innovation
Goal: Double exports in the next five years
Strategies:
1. Leverage primary exporters in computer and electronics
2. Catalyze under-exporters in manufacturing
3. Improve the export pipeline for small business
4. “We Build Green Cities” - brand and market Greater Portland’s global edge
Metropolitan Export Planning
Portland
Target industries: computers and electronics, clean technology & innovation
Goal: Double exports in the next five years
City of PortlandMayor’s Office
Los Angeles
Metropolitan Export Planning
Strategies:
1. Establish the Los Angeles Regional Export Council
2. Target high-opportunity market segments
3. Market the Los Angeles region to the world
Target industries: aerospace, computers and electronics, pharmaceuticals, film and television, professional services
Goal: Double exports in the next five years & foster more globally-fluent, export-oriented business culture
University ofSouthern California
University of California Los Angeles
City ofLos Angeles
Los Angeles Regional Export Council
Los Angeles
Metropolitan Export Planning
Target industries: aerospace, computers and electronics, pharmaceuticals, film and television, professional services
Goal: Double exports in the next five years & foster more globally-fluent, export-oriented business culture
The United States Conference of Mayors
“Export Ready”Challenge
AtlantaBuild on Metropolitan Atlanta’s Strengths
Target industries
Goals
Network
Strategies
Metropolitan Atlanta
Export Plan
Metropolitan Export Planning
Innovate Locally Advocate Nationally
State Governments Florida
12 internationaloffices
$3 b state GDP added from export assistance & business development in 2011
Office of Freight, Logistics &Passenger Operations
Coordinates multimodal freight statewide by aligning with regional freight strategies
Enterprise Florida
State Governments ColoradoSpace Cluster
4 states joining Colorado to advocate for and promote space cluster initiatives
$20m competitive matching grants for early-stage tech development in CO
OhioThird Frontier & Edison Tech Centers
7 regional centers providing innovation & commercialization services
to foster innovation ecosystem in Ohio 2010-2016
$700 m
State Governments Georgia
12 internationaloffices worldwide
Port investments/support
Exports & FDI
FDI attracted statewide in 2012$2.8 b
in state committed or proposed funds for Port of Savannah expansion project
$231 m
State Governments Georgia
12 internationaloffices worldwide
Port investments/support
Exports & FDI
FDI attracted statewide in 2012$2.8 b
in state committed or proposed funds for Port of Savannah expansion project
$231 m
Reform Immigration for
CompetitivenessOpen NewMarkets
Free Trade AgreementFree Trade AgreementFree Trade Agreement
Federal Government
Modernize & Prioritize Trade
Corridors
National Freight Strategy
Trans-Pacific Partnership
Europe
ExportFinancing
InternationalMarket
Intelligence
International Trade AdministrationExport-Import Bank
Innovate Locally Network GloballyAdvocate Nationally
New York
Sao Paulo
Toronto
Lagos
Sydney
Tokyo
Shanghai
London
ParisFrankfurt
Detroit
Monterrey
Bogota
Johannesburg
Cologne
ChennaiHanoi
Chongqing
Atlanta
Singapore
TokyoBeijing
ParisLondon Frankfurt
Hong Kong
Jakarta
Dubai
Amsterdam
Xi’anDelhi
Antioch
Tyre
Samarkand
Lanzhou
Baghdad Tehran
Xi’anDelhi
Antioch
Tyre
Samarkand
Lanzhou
Baghdad Tehran
GLOBAL CITIES INITIATIVEA J O I N T P R OJ ECT O F B R O O K I N GS A N D J P M O R GA N C H AS E
Atlanta, GA / March 20, 2013@bruce_katz #globalcities