2
REPORTBRISBANE CAPITAL CITY
E D I T I O N 1 5
REPORTBRISBANE CAPITAL CITY
E D I T I O N 1 5
Agriculture, forestry and fishing, 1%
Electricity, gas, water and waste services, 4%
Wholesale trade, 6%
Mining, 2%
Manufacturing, 8%
Construction, 12%
Accommodation and food services, 2%
Transport, postal and warehousing, 8%
Information media and telecommunications, 3%
Financial and insurance services, 10%
Rental, hiring and real estate services, 4%
Professional, scientific and technical services, 7%
Administrative and support services, 3%
Public administration and safety, 8%
Education and training, 6%
Health care and social assistance, 9%
Arts and recreation services, 1%
Retail Trade, 6%
INDUSTRY BREAKDOWN
BRISBANE AT A GLANCE
$5.5BTotal infrastructure spending is
$5.5 billion or $2459 per
person in 2018.
Based on major projects worth
$10 million or more.
AVERAGE DAYS ON
MARKET: 53 days
The Brisbane house market is showing Limited Value.
It would be best suited to a Medium Term Trading Strategy or
Long Term Hold Strategy.
We classify the Brisbane house market currently as a Medium Risk
investment.
Medium Term Strategy = 4 to 7 yearsLong Term Strategy = 10+ years
Legend
In the current stage of cycle
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 6.4%
HOUSE YIELD 4.3% UNDEREMPLOYMENT
RATE 9.2%UNIT
YIELD 5.1%
7.49%
LONG TERM COMPOUNDED
GROWTH PA IS 7.49%
FOR HOUSES & 5.99% FOR
UNITS.
Houses the last 5 years have
seen 3.17% PA growth, units
0.38%.
CURRENT MEDIAN
$540,600 House
(-2.9% ) on previous Quarter
$402,100 Unit
(-3.6% ) on previous Quarter
POPULATION
Current: 2,3226,656Curret Growth Rate: 2.0%LT Growth Rate: 1.9%QLD NOM: 29,349QLD NIM: 22,510QLD Natural: 29,602
3
REPORTBRISBANE CAPITAL CITY
E D I T I O N 1 5
EXECUTIVE SUMMARYKEY INDICATOR 1 - Slightly Positive
MONEY SUPPLY: Is the money supply increasing?
State Budget
Gross State Product V. Median Price Movement
Economic Benefit V Median House Price
Business Investment
Infrastructure Spending
QLD LT Housing Finance
QLD ST Housing Finance
Coal Price V. House Price Movement
KEY INDICATOR 2 - Neutral
CONFIDENCE: Is there confidence in the market?
Retail Turnover Growth
Mortgage Arrears
Unemployment
Underemployment
Job Creation Index
State Job Vacancies
KEY INDICATOR 3 - Slightly Positive
AFFORDABILITY: Is the market affordable?
Affordability Index HOUSE V. Price Movement
Affordability Index UNITS V. Price Movement
Income Growth V. Price Movement
Price to Income ratio
FHBs as % of Population
KEY INDICATOR 4 - Slightly Positive
SUPPLY & DEMAND: Does demand exceed supply?
Population
QLD Population Movement Type
Population Pyramid
Foreign Investment
Airport Arrivals
Dwelling Approvals V. Population % Change
Bedroom Approvals V. Population Change
Vacancy Rate V. Rent
Stock on Market V. Days on Market
KEY INDICATOR 5 - Slightly Positive
INVESTMENT VALUE: Is there value in this market compared to other markets?
Current Investment Value - Per Capital City
Yield V. Interest Rates
Rent Growth V. Price Movement
Capital City Long Term Price Comparision House
Long Term Trends
Brisbane V. Sydney HOUSE Price Movement
Positive
Slightly Positive
Neutral
Negative
Slightly Negative
4
REPORTBRISBANE CAPITAL CITY
E D I T I O N 1 5
For more information on the Brisbane market, including individual property and suburb selections, call
to speak to one of our professional property advisors on 03 8539 0300.
OUR VIEW OF THE BRISBANEPROPERTY HOUSE MARKET
AVOID
CAUTIONLIMITEDVALUE
VALUE
BRIS
BAN
E SU
BU
RB
RA
NG
E -
HO
USE
SLIMITED VALUE
The market is showing some
value opportunities. Overall, most
fundamental indicators support
growth.
VALUE
The market is showing good value on
most properties. Many fundamental
indicators exist which support strong
growth.
AVOID
The market is showing no value
and price falls in the short term are
possible. There are no fundamentals
that support price growth in the short
term.
CAUTION
The market is close to being
overvalued and/or oversupplied. We
see minimal growth over the short- to
medium-term.
P O S I T I V E
5
REPORTBRISBANE CAPITAL CITY
E D I T I O N 1 5
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120% $600,000
$500,000
$400,000
$300,000
$200,000
$100,000
$-
House Price Unit Price % Difference (Avg 96%)
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1997
1996
1998
1999
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2018
2017
BRISBANE UNIT V. HOUSE PRICE COMPARISONThis graph shows the comparison between house and unit price movements and the percentage difference for each year.
112%
102%
110%
98%
105%105%
100%
104%
104%
109%
109%107%
110%
114%112%
99%
85%
80%
85%
88%
86%84% 86%85%
83%
88%85% 84% 84%
80%
74%
78%
6
REPORTBRISBANE CAPITAL CITY
E D I T I O N 1 5
For more information on the Brisbane market, including individual property and suburb selections, call
to speak to one of our professional property advisors on 03 8539 0300.
OUR VIEW OF THE BRISBANEPROPERTY UNIT MARKET
AVOID
CAUTIONLIMITEDVALUE
VALUE
BRISBANE SUBURB RANGE - U
N
ITS
LIMITED VALUE
The market is showing some
value opportunities. Overall, most
fundamental indicators support
growth.
VALUE
The market is showing good value on
most properties. Many fundamental
indicators exist which support strong
growth.
AVOID
The market is showing no value
and price falls in the short term are
possible. There are no fundamentals
that support price growth in the short
term.
CAUTION
The market is close to being
overvalued and/or oversupplied. We
see minimal growth over the short- to
medium-term.
S L I G H T L YP O S I T I V E
7
REPORTBRISBANE CAPITAL CITY
E D I T I O N 1 5
STATE BUDGETThis graph displays the State Government position of either a surplus or deficit against the change in the capital city median house
price.
20% 5
15%
4
10%
3
5%
2
1
-5%
-1
-2
-3
-4
-10% -5
0%
0
2008200720062005 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 20222021
QL
D B
ud
get
($ B
illio
ns)
% C
han
ge M
ed
ian
Pri
ce
QLD Budget Median House Price
2%
7%
16%
13%
-3%
9%
-6%
-3%
4%
6%
4%
5%
1%
-1%
N E U T R A L
8
REPORTBRISBANE CAPITAL CITY
E D I T I O N 1 5
GROSS STATE PRODUCT V. MEDIAN PRICE MOVEMENTThis graph displays Gross State Product charted against the median house price. Gross State Product is the measure of final goods
and services produced in the state in a period of time.
GSP ($ Mil) Median Price
1994
1993
1992
1990
1991
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2018
2017
0
$600,000 350,000
250,000
200,000
300,000
150,000
100,000
$400,000
$500,000
$200,000
$100,000
$300,000
50,000
$-
GS
P (
$M
il)
Med
ian
Ho
use
Pri
ce
N E G A T I V E
9
REPORTBRISBANE CAPITAL CITY
E D I T I O N 1 5
ECONOMIC BENEFIT V.MEDIAN HOUSE PRICEThis graph displays the economic benefit per person against the median house price. Economic benefit is the ratio between State
Final Demand for the state and the state’s population. State Final Demand measures the total value of goods and services that are
sold in the state and is a measure of the state’s income.
$-
$30,000
$20,000
$10,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
$80,000 $600,000
$500,000
$400,000
$300,000
$200,000
$100,000
$-
Economic Benefit House Price
1995
1994
1990
1991
1992
1993
1997
1996
1998
1999
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2018
2017
Med
ian
Ho
use
Pri
ce
Sta
te F
inal D
em
an
d /
Po
pu
lati
on
S L I G H T L YN E G A T I V E
10
REPORTBRISBANE CAPITAL CITY
E D I T I O N 1 5
BUSINESS INVESTMENTThis graph displays private business investment into the state charted against the median house price.
0
20,000
10,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000 $600,000
$500,000
$400,000
$300,000
$200,000
$100,000
$-
Business Investment Median House Price
1997
1998
1999
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2018
2017
Med
ian
Ho
use
Pri
ce
$, M
il
$139,000$161,600
$248,300
$350,200
$444,800
$444,600
$512,800 $540,600
$144,000$165,300
$320,500
$406,100
$485,300
$462,500
$539,700
$150,900
$194,900
$327,200
$459,300$457,700
$491,600
$545,900
S L I G H T L YN E G A T I V E
11
REPORTBRISBANE CAPITAL CITY
E D I T I O N 1 5
INFRASTRUCTURE SPENDINGThis graph displays the total infrastructure spend on projects over $10 million and the spend broken down into a per person figure.
The average spend per person in Australia is $3000.
$5,000,000,000
$3,000
$2,500
$6,000,000,000
$4,000,000,000 $2,000
$3,000,000,000 $1,500
$2,000,000,000 $1,000
$1,000,000,000 $500
$- $-2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Spending Spend per person
$1,325
$1,917
$2,396$2,453
$2,459
$1,703
N E U T R A L
12
REPORTBRISBANE CAPITAL CITY
E D I T I O N 1 5
QUEENSLAND HOUSING FINANCE - LONG TERMThis graph displays the total value of housing finance for the state over the long term versus the median house price.
0
150,000
100,000
50,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
400,000
350,000
450,000$600,000
$500,000
$400,000
$300,000
$200,000
$100,000
$-
1995
1994
1990
1991
1992
1993
1997
1996
1998
1999
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2018
2017
Med
ian
Ho
use
Pri
ce
Ho
usi
ng
Fin
an
ce (
$, M
il)
Housing Finance House Median
S L I G H T L YN E G A T I V E
13
REPORTBRISBANE CAPITAL CITY
E D I T I O N 1 5
QUEENSLAND HOUSING FINANCE - SHORT TERMThis graph displays the total value of housing finance for the state in the short term versus the median house price.
110,000
100,000
105,000
95,000
90,000
85,000
8,000
Jun 2
016
Jun 2
017
Sep
20
16
Sep
20
17
Mar
20
18
Mar
20
16
Mar
20
17
Dec
20
16
Dec
20
17
Ho
usi
ng
Fin
an
ce (
$, M
il)
$560,000
$555,000
$535,000
$540,000
$545,000
$550,000
$530,000
$525,000
$520,000
$515,000
$510,000
Med
ian
Ho
use
Pri
ce
Housing Finance House Median
P O S I T I V E
14
REPORTBRISBANE CAPITAL CITY
E D I T I O N 1 5
$140.0 $600,000
$80.0
$400,000
$120.0
$100.0
$500,000
$60.0
$300,000
$40.0
$200,000
$20.0$100,000
Median House Price Median Unit Price Coal Price
$- 0
1997
1998
1999
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2018
2017
This graph shows the relationship between the coal price and the median house price.
COAL PRICE V. MEDIAN PRICE MOVEMENT
$139,600$144,100
$150,900
$161,000$165,300
$194,900
$248,300
$320,500$327,200
$350,200
$406,100
$459,300$444,800
$485,300
$457,700
$444,600
$462,500
$491,600
$521,800
$539,700$545,900
$540,600
$42$39
$56
$53
$44$46
$68
$51
$63
$104
$118
$92
$120
$110
$89
$94
$76
$72
$117
$115
$122
S L I G H T L YP O S I T I V E
15
REPORTBRISBANE CAPITAL CITY
E D I T I O N 1 5
RETAIL TURNOVER GROWTHThis graph displays levels of State retail turnover charted against the median house price.
0
30,000
20,000
10,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000 $600,000
$500,000
$400,000
$300,000
$200,000
$100,000
$-
1995
1994
1990
1991
1992
1993
1997
1996
1998
1999
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2018
2017
Med
ian
Ho
use
Pri
ce
Reta
il S
pen
din
g (
$, M
il)
Retail Turnover VIC Median Hosue Price
N E U T R A L
16
REPORTBRISBANE CAPITAL CITY
E D I T I O N 1 5
MORTGAGE ARREARSThis graph displays the percentage of mortgages that are 30+ days in arrears on a state and National level from 2002 to 2018,
supplied by Standard and Poor’s Global Ratings.
2.5%
1.5%
2.0%
1.0%
0.5%
0%
Mar
20
03
Jul 2
00
3
Nov
200
3
Mar
20
04
Jul 2
00
4
Nov
200
4
Mar
20
05
Jun 2
00
5
Nov
200
5
Mar
20
06
Jun 2
00
6
Nov
200
6
Mar
20
07
Jun 2
00
7
Nov
200
7
Mar
20
08
Jun 2
00
8
Jun 2
013
Jun 2
014
Jun 2
015
Jun 2
016
Jun 2
017
Nov
200
8
Nov
2013
Nov
2014
Nov
2015
Nov
2016
Nov
2017
Mar
20
09
Mar
20
14
Mar
20
15
Mar
20
16
Mar
20
17
Mar
20
18
Jun 2
00
9
Nov
200
9
Mar
20
10
Jun 2
010
Nov
2010
Mar
20
11
Jun 2
011
Nov
2011
Mar
20
12
Jun 2
012
Nov
2012
Mar
20
13
QLD AUS
0.50%
1.50%
S L I G H T L YN E G A T I V E
17
REPORTBRISBANE CAPITAL CITY
E D I T I O N 1 5
UNEMPLOYMENTThis graph displays the unemployment rate for metro, state and national as a yearly average and the current rate.
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
2.0%
0%
Brisbane Queensland
4.0%
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2017
2016
2018
7.5
8.9
9.4
7.5
6.3
9.8
9.7
10.7
9.6
7.7
8.6
9.1
7.97.7
7.8
7.4
7.9
6.5
6.0
4.9
5.0
4.0
3.6
3.3
4.7
5.2
4.8
5.5
5.7
6.3
5.85.6
6.0
6.6
6.4
N E U T R A L
18
REPORTBRISBANE CAPITAL CITY
E D I T I O N 1 5
UNDEREMPLOYMENTThis graph shows the relationship between the state and national underemployment rate as a yearly average and the current rate.
10.0%
8.0%
9.0%
7.0%
6.0%
0.0%
Queensland National
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
1992
1991
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2018
7.2
8.28.0
7.8 7.7
7.9
8.78.6
8.2 8.3
8.9
8.2
8.4
7.6
7.1 7.1
6.4
5.9
8.1
7.77.9
7.7
8.1
9.09.1
8.6
9.2
8.8
N E U T R A L
19
REPORTBRISBANE CAPITAL CITY
E D I T I O N 1 5
JOB CREATION This graph shows the internet vacancy index for online job advertisements on the three major job boards.
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Apr 20
11
Jun 2
011
Jun 2
012
Jun 2
013
Jun 2
014
Jun 2
015
Jun 2
016
Jun 2
017
Aug 2
011
Aug 2
012
Aug 2
013
Aug 2
014
Aug 2
015
Aug 2
016
Aug 2
017
Oct
20
11
Oct
20
12
Oct
20
13
Oct
20
14
Oct
20
15
Oct
20
16
Oct
20
17
Dec
20
11
Dec
20
12
Dec
20
13
Dec
20
14
Dec
20
15
Dec
20
16
Dec
20
17
Feb
20
12
Feb
20
13
Feb
20
14
Feb
20
15
Feb
20
16
Feb
20
17
Feb
20
18
Apr 20
12
Apr 20
13
Apr 20
14
Apr 20
15
Apr 20
16
Apr 20
17
Apr 20
18
S L I G H T L YP O S I T I V E
20
REPORTBRISBANE CAPITAL CITY
E D I T I O N 1 5
STATE JOB VACANCIESThis graph displays the number of jobs created in the private and public sectors state wide.
45,000
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
10,000
15,000
5,000
0
Jun 1989
Jun 1993
Jun 1997
Jun 2
00
1
Jun 2
00
5
Feb
20
10
Jun 2
017
Feb
20
14
Feb
1986
Feb
1990
Feb
1994
Feb
1998
Feb
20
02
Feb
20
06
Jun 2
011
Feb
20
18
Jun 2
015
Oct
1986
Oct
1990
Oct
1994
Oct
1998
Oct
20
02
Oct
20
06
Oct
20
12
Oct
20
08
Jun 1987
Jun 1991
Jun 1995
Jun 1999
Jun 2
00
3
Jun 2
00
7
Oct
20
14
Oct
20
10
Feb
1988
Feb
1992
Feb
1996
Feb
20
00
Feb
20
04
Feb
20
08
Feb
20
16
Feb
20
12
Oct
1988
Oct
1992
Oct
1996
Oct
20
00
Oct
20
04
Jun 2
00
9
Oct
20
16
Jun 2
013
Private Public
S L I G H T L YP O S I T I V E
21
REPORTBRISBANE CAPITAL CITY
E D I T I O N 1 5
120%
100%
40%
80%
15%
25%
35%
60%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5%
20%
0%
AI House (QLD Income) AI House (Brisbane HH Income) Median Price Movement
0% -10%
-5%
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1982
1985
1984
1983
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2018
2017
AFFORDABILITY INDEX V. PRICE MOVEMENT (HOUSE)This graph displays the relationship between affordability and its impact on house price movements. The Affordability Index (AI)
is calculated using the median price, median income, an LVR of 80% and the current interest rate. PPA’s AI is a measure of the
average mortgage repayments versus the average income.
28%
35%
-4%
26%
1%
31%
3%
31%
5%
27%
18%
32%5%
28%
38%
50%
10%
45%
0%
35% 4%
30%
15%
29%
3%
33%
0%
35%
0%
28%
4%
22%
3%
22%
5%
22%
7%
27%3%
20%
18%
24%
27%
30%
29%
39%
2%
39% 7%
41%
16%
48%
13%
60%
-3%
32%
9%
47%
-6%
41%
38%
37%
-3%
34% 4%
28%
6%
29%
4%
27%
5%
30%
3%
-1%
29% 28%29%
P O S I T I V E
22
REPORTBRISBANE CAPITAL CITY
E D I T I O N 1 5
120%
100%
60%
80%
30%
50%
60%
10%
20%
40%
40%
20%0%
Gross AI Units (Avg 31%) Median Price Movement
0%-10%
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2018
2017
AFFORDABILITY INDEX V. PRICE MOVEMENT (UNIT)This graph displays the relationship between affordability and its impact on unit price movements. The Affordability Index is
calculated using the median price, median income, an LVR of 80% and the current interest rate. PPA’s AI is a measure of the
average mortgage repayments versus the average income.
28%
18%
37%
8%
33%
-2%
31%
-1%
48%
6%
55%
4%
45%
9%
37%
7%
31%
1%
29%
4%
34%
3%
37%
5%
1%
31%
4%
23%
11%
23%24%
4%
31%
10%
23%
21%
24%
9%
26%
10%
31%
13%
33%
11%
36%
-3%
41%
7%
51%
-3%
27%
0%
39%
35%
1%
29%
5%
24%
4%
24%
-1%
23%
-6%
0%
24%
21%22%
S L I G H T L YP O S I T I V E
23
REPORTBRISBANE CAPITAL CITY
E D I T I O N 1 5
$600,000
$1,400
$1,800
$1,600
$500,000
$1,200$400,000
$1,000
$300,000
$800
$600$200,000
$400
$100,000
Median House Price Median Unit Price Median Weekly Income Avg Household Income
$200
$- $-
20
01
20
00
199
9
199
8
199
7
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
18
20
17
INCOME GROWTH V. PRICE MOVEMENTThis graph shows a relationship between income growth and house price growth.
$667$694
$706$737
$782$810
$859$894
$952$982
$1,111
$1,041
$1,108
$1,184
$1,244
$1,287
$1,388
$1,346
$1,423$1,448 $1,444
$1,562
$1,498
S L I G H T L YP O S I T I V E
24
REPORTBRISBANE CAPITAL CITY
E D I T I O N 1 5
PRICE TO INCOME RATIOThis graph displays the price to income ratio which is the relationship between the median house price and the average annual
income. This also represents the average time taken to save a 20% deposit when assuming 20% of the average wage is saved.
9
0
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
1982
1985
1984
1983
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2018
2017
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
5
4 4 4
4
4
44
4
4
4
4
4
5
6
7
7
7
8
8
7
7
7
6 6
7
77 7
7
S L I G H T L YP O S I T I V E
25
REPORTBRISBANE CAPITAL CITY
E D I T I O N 1 5
FHBS AS A % OF POPULATION
1.00%
0.90%
0.60%
0.70%
0.80%
0.50%
0.40%
0.30%
0.20%
0.10%
0.00%
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
This graph shows the percentage of first home buyers (FHB) relative to the state population.
0.73%0.72%
0.69%
0.51%
0.55%
0.50%
0.60%
0.91%
0.73%
0.61%
0.48%
0.58%
0.73%
0.76%
0.55%
0.83%
0.36%
0.45%
0.43%0.41%
0.43%
0.49%
P O S I T I V E
26
REPORTBRISBANE CAPITAL CITY
E D I T I O N 1 5
CHANGE IN POPULATIONThis graph shows the percentage change in the population growth rate for the city and Australia.
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
0.5%
0%
Brisbane Queensland Australia
1.0%
200
8
200
9
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2017
2016
2.7%
2.8%2.8%
2.1%
1.9%
1.6%
1.9%
1.8%
2.3%
2.1%
2.0%
1.7%
1.8%
1.4%
1.6%
1.3%
1.8%
1.5%
2.0%
1.7%
P O S I T I V E
27
REPORTBRISBANE CAPITAL CITY
E D I T I O N 1 5
QUEENSLAND POPULATION MOVEMENT TYPEThis graph demonstrates the breakdown of Natural Increase, Net Overseas Migration (NOM) and Net Interstate Migration (NIM)
for the state.
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
10,000
-
Natural Increase NOM NIM
20,000
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1998
1999
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2017
2016
P O S I T I V E
28
REPORTBRISBANE CAPITAL CITY
E D I T I O N 1 5
QUEENSLANDPOPULATION PYRAMIDThe population pyramid demonstrates the breakdown of the different ages and sex percentages of the population. The dominant
consumer base of a population is the 35 to 49 age bracketsand ideally we like to see the preceeding age brackets larger as they
age to replace the existing group.
Greater Brisbane Australia
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Census of Population and Housing, 2016 (Usual residence data).Compiled and presented in profile.id by .id, the population experts.
Males
4.0 4.03.0
%
3.0
%
2.0 1.0 2.01.00 0
Age in years
Females85 +
80 - 84
75 - 79
70 - 74
65 - 69
60 - 64
55 - 59
50 - 54
45 - 49
40 - 44
35 - 39
30 - 34
25 - 29
20 - 24
15 - 19
10 - 14
5 - 9
0 - 4
P O S I T I V E
29
REPORTBRISBANE CAPITAL CITY
E D I T I O N 1 5
6,000
$12,000,000,000
7,000
$14,000,000,000
$16,000,000,000
8,000 $18,000,000,000
5,000
$10,000,000,000
4,000
$8,000,000,000
3,000
$6,000,000,000
2,000$4,000,000,000
1,000$2,000,000,000
Established For Development Approval Numbers
- $-
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20172016
FOREIGN INVESTMENT APPROVALS - NEW V. ESTABLISHED PROPERTYThis graph shows foreign investment approval numbers and the dollar amount into the state’s residential market since 2005.
Approvals are broken down into established property and developed/for development.
1,435
1,726
1,093
548
1,273
1,5821,734
2,940
5,023
7,444
2,378
N E U T R A L
30
REPORTBRISBANE CAPITAL CITY
E D I T I O N 1 5
10 $600,000
4
$400,000
5
6
7
8
9
$500,000
3
$300,000
2
$200,000
1
$100,000
Domestic Arrivals International Arrivals Median House Price
0 0
200
9
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2018
2017
This graph shows the numbers for International and Domestic arrivals into the city’s airport plotted against the median house price.
AIRPORT ARRIVALS V. MEDIAN HOUSE PRICE
$444,800
$485,300
$457,700
$444,600
$462,500
$491,600
$512,800
$539,700 $540,600$545,900
Med
ian
Ho
use
Pri
ce
Ho
usi
ng
Fin
an
ce (
$, M
il)
S L I G H T L YN E G A T I V E
31
REPORTBRISBANE CAPITAL CITY
E D I T I O N 1 5
25,000 4.50%
3.50%
4.00%
3.00%
2.50%
20,000
2.00%
15,000
1.50%
10,000
1.00%5,000
0.50%
Houses Other Dwellings Population % Change
- 0.00%
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2018
2017
DWELLING APPROVALS V. POPULATIONThis graph shows the relationship between population growth and dwelling approvals in the Greater City region.
2.3%
2.5%
2.4%
2.1%
1.9%
4.1%
2.7%
2.8%
1.91%1.9%
2.3%
2.0%
1.8%
1.6%
2.0%
1.8%
12,8
64
6,7
55
13,7
62
6,1
69
11,5
72
6,5
57
9,7
79
6,6
25
10,8
81
4,8
06
13,0
54
6,3
91
11,0
18
5,4
13
9,7
27
4,6
59
10,7
22
7,4
13
7,3
27
7,2
90
7,3
54
6,0
35
7,8
80
10,5
46
10,9
98
12,2
08
11,4
45
20
,34
7
11,7
62
16,6
06
12,6
78
13,4
78
11,1
48
10,7
25
N E U T R A L
32
REPORTBRISBANE CAPITAL CITY
E D I T I O N 1 5
BEDROOM APPROVALS V. POPULATION CHANGEThis graph shows the relationship between the number of bedrooms being commenced and the change in population numbers.
PPA calculates this assuming 80% of approvals commence, and multiplying by the average household size of the city.
80,000
50,000
40,000
60,000
70,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
Population Change (Number) Approvals (80% of X 2.6)
-
200
8
200
9
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2018
2017
51,826
34,702
54,077
38,240
30,383 30,871
38,301
28,278
37,871
38,91638,055
47,008
42,384
35,910
49,011
40,325
67,145
46,366
50,32151,210
59,913
N E U T R A L
33
REPORTBRISBANE CAPITAL CITY
E D I T I O N 1 5
4.5%
4.0%
3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
House Units Vacancy Rate Inner Ring (0-5km) Vacancy Rate (Middle Ring 5-20km)
0% $-
$100
$50
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$500
$400
$450
VACANCY RATE V. RENTThis graph displays the relationship between rental growth for both houses and units and the vacancy rate.
201820172016201520142013201220112010
$364
$379
$390
$394
$399 $402 $402$391
$359
$380
$394$400
$410$416
$422$427
$452
$464
2.4%
1.6% 1.6%
2.6%
3.3% 3.3%
3.50% 3.5%
4.0%
2.6%
2.4%
2.1%
2.4%
2.0%
2.3%
3.2%
2.8%
2.1%
N E U T R A L
34
REPORTBRISBANE CAPITAL CITY
E D I T I O N 1 5
40,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
Stock on Market Avg Days on Market
0 0
20
10
30
40
50
60
80
70
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20182017
STOCK ON MARKET V. DAYS ON MARKETThis graph displays the average days on market and stock on market since 2008.
37,500
18,910
29,100 29,100 29,080 28,700
28,100 28,150
29,20029,000
30,000
40
60
6665
58
63
67
69
5354
S L I G H T L YP O S I T I V E
35
REPORTBRISBANE CAPITAL CITY
E D I T I O N 1 5
CURRENT INVESTMENT VALUEThis graph displays the gross yield for houses and units in each of the five major capital cities.
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
House Units
0%
Brisbane Adelaide Perth Melbourne Sydney
3.8%
4.9%
3.8%
5.1%
3.4%
4.2%
2.6%
4.0%
2.8%
3.8%
P O S I T I V E
36
REPORTBRISBANE CAPITAL CITY
E D I T I O N 1 5
2%
1%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
0%
9%
Cash Rate Variable Rate House Yield
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2018
2017
4.8%
7.8%
4.1%
4.5%
4.5%
7.5%
3.0%
4.7%
6.6%
2.8%
4.6%
5.5%
2.5%
4.4%
5.5%
2.0%
4.3%
5.0%
2.0%
4.1%
5.4%
1.5%
4.4%
5.1%
1.5%
4.3%
5.1%
YIELD V. INTEREST RATESThis graph dsplays house yields against the variable and cash rates.
N E U T R A L
37
REPORTBRISBANE CAPITAL CITY
E D I T I O N 1 5
$500
$450
$600,000
$300
$350
$400
$250
$500,000
$200
$400,000
$150
$300,000
$100
$200,000
$50
Median House Price Median Unit Price Rent House (3Bed) Rent Unit (2Bed)
$100,000
$- $-
201820172016201520142013201220112010
RENT GROWTH V. PRICE MOVEMENTThis graph displays the relationship between the median price and median rents.
$380
$364
$394
$379
$400
$390
$410
$394
$416
$399
$422
$402
$427
$402
$452
$464
$391
$359
$485,300
$402,200
$457,700
$391,900
$444,600
$390,700
$462,500
$394,600
$491,600
$413,902
$521,690
$431,800
$539,700
$429,100
$555,796$545,900
$402,100
$427,900
N E U T R A L
38
REPORTBRISBANE CAPITAL CITY
E D I T I O N 1 5
CAPITAL CITY LONG TERM PRICE COMPARISON (HOUSES)This graph displays the median price relationships between the five major capital cities in Australia.
0%
10%
20%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-50%
-40%
Current Average
-60%
Perth Adelaide
-37%
-18%
Melbourne
-55%
-37%
Sydney
4%
0%
12%
6%
P O S I T I V E
39
REPORTBRISBANE CAPITAL CITY
E D I T I O N 1 5
LONG TERM TRENDSThis graph displays the annual compounded growth rates for houses and units over the long term, and the last 10 years, 7 years,
5 years and 3 years.
8.0%
4.0%
6.0%
2.0%
-4.0%
0.0%
-2.0%
LT(1980) 10Yr 7Yr 5Yr 3Yr
House Unit
7.49%
5.99%
1.64%
0.36% 0.37%
2.41%
3.17%
0.38%
-2.35%
1.78%
P O S I T I V E
40
REPORTBRISBANE CAPITAL CITY
E D I T I O N 1 5
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120% $1,400,000
$1,200,000
$600,000
$800,000
$1,000,000
$400,000
$200,000
$-
Brisbane House Median Sydney House Median % Difference (Avg 61%)
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
1979
1978
1997
1996
1998
1999
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2018
2017
BRISBANE VS. SYDNEY PRICE COMPARISION (HOUSE)This graph shows a relationship between the Brisbane median and the Sydney median and the percentage difference between
them for each year.
74%
67%
51%
61%
76%
76%
73%
77%
71%
73%
64%
54%
65%
68%
69%
71%
68%66%
63%
59%
55%54%
50%
44%
42%
46%
57%
58%
60%
66%
75%74%
70%
67%66%
63%
57%
50%50%
45%
41
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