Download - Brian Jennings on Ethanol
Ethanol and Sustainability
Plain Green ConferenceSioux Falls, SD
Brian Jennings, Executive Vice PresidentAmerican Coalition for Ethanol (ACE)
September 26, 2008
About ACE • Public Policy
• Market Development
• Public Relations & Communications
• Grassroots Member Empowerment
Outline• General overview of ethanol production and use.
• Producing and using ethanol in a way that does not compromise the environment or our food supply.
Clean Air Act
RFS &MTBE
Public policies and market forces help drive demand for ethanol.
Clean Air Act Amdts
2005 Energy BillRFS
MTBE
2007 Energy Bill$100 + oil
About 60% of RFS fromadvanced biofuels.
Use of Fuel Ethanol• E10 – path of least resistance.
• E85 – 200 million cars on road, only 6 million FFVs. 1600 E85 pumps, around 170,000
stations.
Once we supply the E10 market…..E85 and…• Other blends - E15, E20, E30, etc? Most pressing
issue facing the ethanol industry today, beyond E10.
Timely Challenges
• Volatility
• PR issues; “food v. fuel,” land use changes, “good v. bad ethanol”
Factors impacting food prices Oil and energy prices – primary culprit - 80 cents of retail food
dollar.
Unprecedented demand (growing dietary needs of China, India)
Crop failures & poor crops (drought)
Speculative investing in commodities
Weak U.S. dollar
Export restrictions (Argentina, Russia, etc)
Price Check: Oil vs. Corn1949 2008 % Increase
Oil $2.54/barrel $125/barrel 4821%
Corn $1.24/bu $6.13/bu 394%
• Oil is in everything.
• Average food item travels 1500 miles before reaching grocery store.
Sources: National Farmers Union, USDA
Record corn exports in 07/08
90% of U.S. corn exports used by other countries to feed livestock.
Distillers grains from ethanol concentrate nutrients for valuable livestock feed
Source: 2008 Feedstuffs Reference Issue; Ingredient Analysis Table. RFA
Year Harvested Acres
Average Yield
Production
1944 85 million 33 bu /acre
2.8 B bu
2007 85 million 151 bu /acre
13.1 B bu
Corn: 1944 vs. 2007
Nearly 400% increase in production without increasing acres in last 60 years.
Source: NCGA
More corn per acre…
…and doing so with less fertilizer.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
31.50%
26.50%25.30%24.60%21.60%20.90%21.20%
15.20%
7.40%
NO-TILL ACRES AS % OF REPORTING ACRES
% o
f Rep
orte
d A
cres
Conservation practices on the rise
Source: Conservation Technology Information Center
U.S. cropland erosion
Source: NRCS
Ethanol’s Decidedly Positive Energy Balance
Btu of ethanol minus fossil energy used to make the ethanol
Ethanol’s Decidedly Positive Energy Balance
Btu of ethanol minus fossil energy used to make the ethanol
Wan
g
GR
EET w
/Pi
men
tel
Assu
mpt
ions
Climate Change Legislation to reduce
Source: Global Insight
Energy includes transportation, coal (electricity), and othermanufacturing.
Contributing to Global Warming?• Accusing ethanol of Brazil deforestation and global warming.
• Amazon clearing decreased 67% since 2004, while U.S. ethanol production doubled in the same time.
• In 2007, U.S. ethanol production reached all-time high while Amazon clearing fell to 20-year low.
Causes of Amazon deforestation*:Brazil cattle/meat industry 60%Subsistence agriculture 30%
*Source: Natl Institute of Space Research
U.S. ethanol production hasgrown since 2004….
and deforestationin Brazil has declinedduring the same time
Ethanol replaces the incremental gallon of fuel, increasingly from environmentally damaging sources…
Research indicates that tar sands oil generates 150 to 300% more GHGsthan corn ethanol.
Ethanol Efficiencies• Energy use decreased 21.8% from 2001 to 2006.
• 37% of the dried distillers grains with solubles (DDGS) was sold as wet feed which reduces heat demand in the plant between 2001 and 2006.
• Water consumption decreased 26.6%.
• One bushel of corn yields about 3 gallons of ethanol today.
Source: Argonne National Lab, based on RFA survey.
20%Reduction 28%
Reduction
52%Reduction
86%Reduction
Gasoline
NaturalGas
BiomassCurrentAverage
CellulosicEthanolCorn Ethanol
BiomassPetroleum
Sources: Wang et al, Environ. Research Letters, May 2007; Wang et al, Life-Cycle Energy Use and GHG Implications of Brazilian Sugarcane Ethanol Simulated with GREET Model, Dec. 2007.
Greenhouse gas reductionassumptions from DoE
In conclusion…
• It is inescapable; our status quo reliance on fossil & foreign fuel is not a viable option.
• Ethanol is part of the solution. Homegrown. Better for Environment. Ready Now.
• No silver bullets.
www.ethanol.org