Download - Brazil Half-Full Half-Empty
Brazil: is the glass half full
or half empty?
• Glasses
• The emergent middle class
• Conclusions
Do you see a young lady or an old woman in this picture?
It depends on how you look at it!
Do you see a duck or a rabbit in this picture?
You can see both!
Depending on the glasses you use, you can better see reality
• Within the water
• In the darkness
• Very far
• Very close
Brazil 2004: is the glass
half full or half empty?
My book Copo Pela Metade aims at: 1.) seeing reality by combining different kinds of glasses, and 2.) to work out an archaeology of the future in order to antecipate trends and create scenarios
Policy Making
guidance on social and economic development
promotion
guidance on marketing strategy
and tactics
Business
They share some point of view but use differente kinds of glasses, and many times they see different kinds of realities
Glasses for policy making used by governments,
multilateral development organizations focus on
Demography:
vital and social statistics, such as births, deaths,
diseases, marriages, etc., of populations.
Demography
CENSUS
Glasses for business organizations
Marketing Intelligence and Research:
vital and social knowledge on the different lyfe styles and consumption patterns of society and
individual
Marketing Intelligence and Research
More sophisticatedmethodologies and tools
• Focal group
• Creative segmentation
• Geomarketing (Geographical InformationSystems)
• Adhoc high techtools for scrutinizingpeople’s diverse life and consumption styles
More sophisticated methodologies and tools
• Focal group
• Creative segmentation
• Geomarketing (Geographical Information Systems)
• Adhoc high techtools for scrutinizing people’s diverse life and consumption styles
Análisenacional/regional
Análise deárea de influência
Análise de ponto
Rio de Janeiro, 10 julho 2001 (Jornal do Brasil)
baseada em informações nos Censos de 70, 80 e 91
Fundação Getúlio Vargas divulga pesquisa Mapa do Fim da Fome
Temos 50 milhões de miseráveis (29.3% da população brasileira tem renda mensal inferior a 80 reais per
capita).
Governments
Multilateral organizations
NGOs
REALITY
POLICY
ACTION
DEVELOPMENT MINDSET
Are outperforming businesses which
• Target the bottom of pyramid (bop) segments of the marketplace
• Developed successful business design oriented for clients at the bop
28 lojas no Rio de Janeiro
2 milhões de clientes ativos no Leader Card
Health insurance for CD strata in the states of RJ and SP: increased the number of clients from 250 thousand to 400 thousand over the last 3 years
How neighborhood supermarket are much more productive in
terms of m2 profitability
Aparelho de TV a cores:
• 97% domicílios têm
• 4 anos de uso em média
IncomeMarket penetration of goods and
service
Sectorial Production
Sectorial Marketing Analysis
IncomeMarket penetration of goods and
service
Sectorial Production
Sectorial Marketing Analysis
Income
Consumption
What is the picture when one brings the things together?
Income48% does have formal
labour relationship
52% does not have formal or consistent income
The issue of the INFORMAL ECONOMY and how it mess up the Census conclusions
Poor knowledge
48% does have formal labour relationship
52% does not have formal or consistent incomeConsumption
and Life Styles
Better knowledge about the different segments of the society as a whole
Brasil in the 70s
• Affluents
• Middle class
• Poor
• Deprived
• 300 thousand households
• 2,5 million households
• 12,5 million households
70 million inhabitants 15 households
Consumer
socie
ty
Out of
Consumer
Society
------------------------- Poverty line ------------------------------
• Ricos
• Classe média
• 300 mil domicílios
• 2,5 milhões de domicílios
The major beneficiaries of the “Economic Miracle” of the 70s
• National Housing Funding System• Public free Universities• Jobs in state-owned corporations • Mechanisms for protecting of savings
against inflation (indexation)
The subsid
ies
which ju
st a fe
w
people
are
aware of...
Major Forces of Transformation post 70’s
• Acceleration of the urbanization process • Acceleration of the industrialization process• The Civic Revolution • Economic estabilization• Globalization
Major Forces of Transformation post 70’s
ACCELERATION OF URBANIZATION PROCESS
Gráfico 4.1 pg 66
Major Forces of Transformation post 70’s
ACCELERATION OF INDUSTRIALIZATION PROCESS
1950: rural economy 1950 ==> early 90s: 8o. GDP
Major Forces of Transformation post 70’s
THE CIVIC REVOLUTION• amazing increase of the social mobility• from military dictatorship ==> democratic system• 222.000 NGOs• Free elections• Free press• Ongoing improving of the democratic-civic institutions and system• A new civic mindset: for the very first time in History the ordinary
man has a feeling that playing by rules seems to be worthwhile
Major Forces of Transformation post 70’s
GLOBALIZATION
Brazil 2000The emergent middle class is
reaching a critical massa
178 million inhabitants46,5 million household
Citizen
Tax payer
Consumer
Client is king!
Social economic stratification of the households in Brazil (%)
1
4
7
12
34
34
8
A1
A2
B1
B2
C
D
E
Segment Households (M)
A1 0,465A2 1,86B1 3,255B2 5,58C 15,81D 15,81E 3,72
The New Brazilian Middle Class
1993 1996 2000 Variation
A 2 5 5 3
B 12 19 19 7
C 26 31 34 8
D 42 33 34 -6
E 18 12 8 -10
Former Middle Class
The NewMiddle Class
Emergent Middle Class
The economic estabilization repositioned almost overnight the life style and the consumption patterns of the popular strata in terms of
• Purchasing power
• Purchasing habits
• Capacity to plan
The CDE share of national consumption(76% households)
• 64% of food• 58% of personal care and household
products• 58% of appliances• 51% of vestuary and shoes• 50% of household construction reform• 43% of personal services• 64% of pharmaceuticals
The message for the business players is easy:
No one is leader without being leader with CDE strata
Changes in household patterns
• Family average number of members has decresased dramatically
• Improvement of the women social and economic condition
• Two breadwinners instead of one...
The society as a whole has been striving to improve its life not
only after the Real Plan implementation.
Eletro-domésticos por domicílio em 1969 e em 2001
95%
98%
79%
64%
58%
25%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
TV
Geladeira
Som
Favelas século XXI = bairros popularesDesfazendo o mito da pobreza
Pesquisas de Pearlman sobre a evolução do consumo em favelas do Rio
Penetração de serviços coletivos urbanos e tipo de construção (percentual de domicílios) em 1969 e em 2001
29%
60%
48%
37%
97%
96%
95%
96%
Água
Esgoto
Luz
Casa de Alvenaria
1969 2001
Favelas século XXI = bairros popularesDesfazendo o mito da pobreza
Pesquisas de Pearlman sobre a evolução do consumo em favelas do Rio
Penetração de bens de consumo (percentual de domicílios) em 2001
96%
98%
89%
79%
57%
48%
48%
22%
14%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Geladeira
Liquidif icador
Telefone (f ixo ou celular)
Videocassete
Carro
Favelas século XXI = bairros popularesDesfazendo o mito da pobreza
Pesquisas de Pearlman sobre a evolução do consumo em favelas do Rio
Faixas de renda Salários Mínimos (%)
1969 2001
1SM ou menos 11 15
1SM a 2 SM 38 29
2SM a 3SM 29 11
3SM a 4SM 12 14
4SM a 5SM 3 11
5SM ou mais 6 20
Total 100% 100%
Pesquisa de Perlman sobre a evolução da renda familiar das populações de estudo entre 1969 e2001 em favelas do Rio
Favelas século XXI = bairros popularesDesfazendo o mito da pobreza
Penetração eletroeletrônico 2000A1 A2 B1 B2 C D E TOTAL
% % % % % % % %
Máq. de lavar roupa 96 95 91 85 66 32 4 58
Máq. de secar roupa 58 40 28 16 7 2 9
Maq. lavar louça 68 44 26 8 1 5
Geladeira 100 100 100 100 99 94 31 89
Freezer 87 75 53 40 18 5 19
Forno micro-ondas 89 78 54 34 11 2 15
Aspirador de pó 83 76 66 43 15 2 19
Mais de 4 rádios 51 45 42 50 33 5
Televisor 100 100 100 100 99 95 62 93
2 ou mais televisores 100 98 40 21 6 1 11
CD Player 96 92 81 63 32 9 1 30
Video Cassete 100 98 94 87 47 4 37
Telefone 98 96 86 67 36 11 1 33
Câmera de vídeo 63 35 16 8 1 - - 4
Micro computador 69 51 32 11 3 - - 7
Fax 44 22 12 4 1 - - 3
Fonte: ANEP/ABIPEME/IBOPE
Fonte: ANEPE/ABIPEME/IBOPE 1998
Corporations are learning to develop a business design more
oriented to the needs of CDE strata
Government won’t be able to deliver good quality services to
everyone
The truth that people are starting to realize is...
A and B are already paying for education and health services
(although they still have non-paid university what means that.
55 public governmental university draw 70% of the budget of the Education
Ministry)
.
CDE are in a hurry to improve their life
Exemplo: Educação
44%53%
9,60%
33%
39%
41,90%
23%8%
48,50%
Fundamental Médio Superior
A/B
C
D/E
Distribuição da População Economicamente Ativa (milhões) por Grupos de Anos de Estudo e
Classe Econômica
Fonte: PNAD 2001/IBGE
Fornecedores Produção LogísticaCanaldistribuição
Esgota-se o ciclo da “Economia de Produtos”
ValorAgregado ProduçãoLogística
O cliente quer soluções
• Preço• Conforto• Conveniência• Atendimento• Economia de tempo• Qualidade• Relacionamento
CanalDistribuição
Economia de Serviços: o famoso “Foco no Cliente”
Transporte urbano
Conclusions
• Lack of vision the need to integrate business and goverment knowledge to forge a new development consensus
• Opportunities (infrastruture, education, health, public services, etc)
• Challenges
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