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Fresno County Blueprint Planning Scenario Options April 2008
Council of Fresno County Governments
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What is the Blueprint?– An 8 County regional planning process with
COGs serving as lead agencies
– Has both County level and Valley-wide components
– Provides a chance to plan for the future of transportation and land use in the San Joaquin Valley through 2050
– Blueprints are being developed around the state in other regions
– Alternative growth scenarios are now being evaluated using planning tools and extensive community input
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Why Blueprint?Existing and Projected Population Growth
• Population Growth
• 2007 to 2050, Fresno County's population will more than double!• Valleywide, population will grow from 3.9 million to 9.5 million• That means almost 10 additional Fresno-Clovis Metropolitan Areas will
result in the Valley by the Year 2050
Population Growth of Fresno County2000 - 2050
804,508983,478
1,201,792
1,429,228
1,670,542
1,928,411
-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Sources: U.S. Census and State of California Department of FinancePO
PULA
TIO
N
Fresno County ShareYear of California Popluation
1970 413,329 1 1,626,009 1 19,971,069 1 2.1%
1980 514,621 1 2,047,322 1 23,667,957 1 2.2%
1990 667,490 1 2,742,000 1 29,760,021 1 2.2%
2000 804,508 2 3,326,552 2 34,105,437 2 2.4%
2010 983,478 2 4,223,808 2 39,135,676 2 2.5%
2020 1,201,792 2 5,318,531 2 44,135,923 2 2.7%
2030 1,429,228 2 6,551,792 2 49,240,891 2 2.9%
2040 1,670,542 2 7,934,485 2 54,226,115 2 3.1%
2050 1,928,411 2 9,455,181 2 59,507,876 2 3.2%
Sources1 U.S. Census2 State of California Department of Finance, July 2007
Population of Fresno County1970 - 2050
Fresno County CaliforniaSan Joaquin
Valley
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Changes are taking place…
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Blueprint Process thus farOver the last two years:
Phase 1: Values and Vision – gathered from community input
Phase 2: Goals, Objectives and Performance Measures developed from values
The community told us what was important to them:
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Fresno’s Values
• Environmental Health and Sustainability• Vibrant Economy• Public Safety• World Class Education• Transportation Options• Housing Choices• All People Have Worth• Aesthetic Quality• Cultural Richness• Positive Image
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Future Development
• It’s all about CHOICE!
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Diversity of Housing Types• Need to Provide
Housing Options
– Very Low:• Rural homes
– Low:• Large-lot homes
– Medium:• Standard-lot homes• Duplex homes• Clustered homes
– High:• Town homes• Apartments• Condos
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Mixed Uses• Create Dynamic Central
Business & Commercial Districts
– Enhance streetscapes in medium & small downtowns
– Create new mixed use centers
– Redevelopment– Infill Development
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Transportation Choices• TRANSIT
Enhance Sustainability & Quality of Life
Bus Rapid Transit– Streetcar– Light Rail– Commuter Rail– High-speed Rail
– Other 50-year Future Technologies
(Expanded transit will require increased densities.)
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Phase 3 ~ Scenario Modeling• The Blueprint Roundtable and
COG technical staff have created 5 alternative “what if” growth scenarios.
• Each has different planning assumptions and characteristics.
• We want your input.
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Scenario Modeling Transportation Assumptions
Roadway network enhancements included:
• Added all Regional Transportation Plan projects to 2030. (All)• All urban roadways widened to minimum of 4 lanes if not already
widened by the 2030 RTP projects. (B,C,D,E)• Added SR 65 per Caltrans alignment (B,C,D,E)• Added portion of SR 99 by-pass per Caltrans alignment (E)• Metro Rural Loop uses all of the above, plus east-west connector
along Mt. View between SR 99 and SR 65. (E)Transit route enhancements (B-E)• Added all proposed future transit routes:
– Expanded Transit Routes – Added Park and Ride lots– Express Bus Routes– Light Rail– Bus Rapid Transit (BRT)
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Scenario A: Current Trends
• Fresno County grows following recent land use and development practices
• Cities’ boundaries and spheres of influence expand• Current agricultural and environmental land protection
rules continue• Average housing density: 3.8 units/acre
(average lot size = 9,171 sq.ft.)Housing Mix:
Single Family 67%Multiple Family 33%
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Scenario B: Countywide Growth
• Growth is directed to cities and surrounding areas• Industrial growth occurs along Interstate 5• Some redevelopment• Future residential lot sizes are reduced by 10%• Growth discouraged from valued agriculture and
resource conservation land• Average housing density: 4.3 units/acre
(average lot size = 8,104 sq.ft.)• Housing Mix:
Single Family 65%Multiple Family 35%
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Scenario C: Metro-Focused• About 80% of growth is directed to FCMA; 20 % of
growth directed to remaining county • Moderate redevelopment • Cities may expand their spheres of influence• Future residential lot sizes are reduced by 25%• Growth discouraged from valued agriculture and
resource conservation land• Average housing density: 5.2 units/acre
(average lot size 6,702 sq. ft.)• Housing Mix:
Single Family 62%Multiple Family 38%
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Scenario D: Maintaining Boundaries• Growth is distributed across all cities within their
spheres of influence and to Millerton New Town• Significant redevelopment • Future residential lot sizes are reduced by 50%• Growth prohibited from valued agriculture and
resource conservation land• Average housing density: 7.7 units/acre
(average lot size = 4,526 sq. ft.)• Housing Mix:
Single Family 58%Multiple Family 42%
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Scenario E: Metro Rural Loop• Growth focused around diverse transportation and transit
network
• Industrial and other employment areas include mix of uses to support transportation choice
• Utilizes City of Fresno's designated Activity Centers and similar new areas in other communities to create mixed use places
• Growth discouraged from valued agriculture and resource conservation lands
• Growth focused on Fresno, Clovis, Sanger, Selma, and other communities with best transportation access
• Average housing density: 8.9 units/acre(average lot size = 3,916 sq. ft.)
• Housing Mix: Single Family 58% Multi-Family 42%
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Land Use Performance Measures
AVERAGE HOUSING UNITS PER ACREOF NEW DEVELOPMENT
7.7
4.3
8.9
5.23.8
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
A B C D E
SCENARIO
DEN
SITY
GROWTH OF URBAN AREA
40,753
48,206
72,267
89,559
98,544
0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000
E
D
C
B
A
SCEN
AR
IO
ACRES OF GROWTH
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Land Use Performance Measures
STRATEGIC FARMLAND CONSUMEDBY NEW GROWTH
14,280
17,911
31,596
2,324
3,838
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000
E
D
C
B
A
SCEN
AR
IO
ACRES CONSUMED
CRITICAL NATURAL RESOURCES LAND CONSUMED BY NEW GROWTH
2,584
2,433
4,304
84
10
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500
E
D
C
B
A
SCEN
ARIO
ACRES CONSUMED
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Smart Growth Principles(Source: Smart Growth Network)
• Create a Range of Housing Opportunities and Choices• Create Walkable Neighborhoods• Encourage Community and Stakeholder Collaboration• Foster Distinctive, Attractive Communities with a Strong Sense
of Place• Make Development Decisions Predictable, Fair and Cost
Effective• Mix Land Uses• Preserve Open Space, Farmland, Natural Beauty and Critical
Environmental Areas• Provide a Variety of Transportation Choices• Strengthen and Direct Development Toward Existing
Communities• Take Advantage of Compact Building Design
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We Need Your Input!• What are the pros and cons of the
alternative scenarios presented today?
• Would you like to see any of the scenarios blended?
• Are there any other modifications to the scenarios you would like to see made?
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http://www.fresnocog.org
http://www.valleyblueprint.org/
How to Get Further Information