AstrophysicsDivision
Astrophysics 2020: Large Space Missions beyond the Next Decade
Enabling Future Large Astrophysics Missions while Living within Our Means
Dr. Jon A. MorseDirector, Astrophysics Division
Science Mission DirectorateNASA Headquarters
November 14, 2007
14 November 2007 Astrophysics 2020 Conference 2
AstrophysicsDivision SMD Guiding Principles
• To advance the priorities of all four decadal surveys.
• To get more from our budgets through better management and investments in R&A.
• To help the Vision for Space Exploration succeed (e.g., fostering a lunar science community).
14 November 2007 Astrophysics 2020 Conference 3
AstrophysicsDivision
Mission Timescale Conundrum
• Advocacy challenge: staying focused for t ≥ 20 years– Decadal Survey process builds community consensus– Long-term technology investments are always needed– Political & Budgetary stability are most difficult (~10 Congresses and multiple
Administrations)
• Difficult to know when to start putting in significant money given hesitancy to commit
14 November 2007 Astrophysics 2020 Conference 4
AstrophysicsDivision
Cost Estimation Conundrum
• All advocates (scientists, NASA, industry, interested politicians) have strong bias towards under-estimating costs precisely because it’s hard to get missions started
• New large missions may leverage previous technologies, but are essentially highly customized one-offs
– Extrapolating technology development and mission costs is very difficult during early planning stages
• Complexities of Launch Vehicle industry – LV full costs often underestimated at mission inception– Long-term capability and availability NOT driven by NASA or science
• Agency budget policy changes– Budget missions at 70% confidence level with more realistic cost
reserves (and trust parametric projections more)– Cost control on missions sustains the flight queue
AstrophysicsDivision
Budget Landscape
14 November 2007 Astrophysics 2020 Conference 6
AstrophysicsDivision
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
$ B
illio
ns
Cross-AgencySupport + IG
Space Operations
Aeronautics
Exploration Systems
Science
Total NASA Budget($17.3 billion requested for FY08)
OSTP-OMB FY08 budget overview for SSB, March 2007
14 November 2007 Astrophysics 2020 Conference 7
AstrophysicsDivision
Astrophysics as a Fraction of NASA Budget
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
1959196119631965196719691971197319751977197919811983198519871989199119931995199719992001200320052007
Fiscal Year
Astr
op
hysic
s %
of
NA
SA
Bu
dg
et
14 November 2007 Astrophysics 2020 Conference 8
AstrophysicsDivision FY2008 SMD Budget by Division ($M)
Astrophysics
14 November 2007 Astrophysics 2020 Conference 9
AstrophysicsDivision Great Observatory Peak Funding
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
197819801982198419861988199019921994
Year
Fra
cti
on
of
Tota
l M
issio
n C
ost
HubbleComptonChandraSpitzer
All missions shifted to 1978 start for comparison.
14 November 2007 Astrophysics 2020 Conference 10
AstrophysicsDivision
Great Observatory Intervals
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
Year
Develo
pm
en
t C
ost
Fra
cti
on
Hubble
Compton
Chandra
Spitzer
JWST
14 November 2007 Astrophysics 2020 Conference 11
AstrophysicsDivision
SMD Launches by Year and Development Cost (Phase A-D, $M)
New Horizons
STEREO
CALIPSO
CloudSatST-5
Hinode
Phoenix
Daw n
THEMISAIM
SDO
HST SM-4
GLAST
Glory
OCO
OSTMIBEX
Herschel
MSL
SOFIA
NPP
Kepler
WISE
Aquarius
Juno
LDCM
Mars Scout 2
RBSP
Discovery 11
JWST
GPM Core
SMEX-13
MMS
ES Decadal 1
Discovery 12
GPM Const
SMEX-12
NuSTAR
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
CY06 CY07 CY08 CY09 CY10 CY11 CY12 CY13 CY14
ST-7
CINDI, SET-1,M3 and Planck
TWINS-B
TWINS-Aand ST-6
Earth
Helio
Astro
PlanetaryExoMars
RBSP MoO
SMD Launches (Phase A-D, $M)
14 November 2007 Astrophysics 2020 Conference 12
AstrophysicsDivision Portfolio Diversity
• A variety of mission sizes is required to satisfy conflicting [programmatically] community desires: training (small-medium), frequent launches (small-medium), cutting edge science (medium-large), facility-class observatories (large)
• Astrophysics, a largely photon-starved endeavor, biases future missions strongly towards large implementations
14 November 2007 Astrophysics 2020 Conference 13
AstrophysicsDivision Community Recommendations
• Numerous recent community reports call for re-establishing balance among small, medium, and large missions in the Astrophysics program:
– Astronomy & Astrophysics Advisory Committee 2007 Annual Report: “The balance between small, medium and large programs in the NASA Astrophysics Division has been undermined. The AAAC recommends that the funding "wedge" in FY09/10 be used to add some funding for R&A and small missions, to rebalance the program.”
– NRC 2007 NASA Astrophysics Program Assessment report: Recommendation #1: “NASA should optimize the projected scientific return from its Astrophysics Program by ensuring a diversified portfolio of large and small missions that reflect the scientific priorities of the decadal review and by investing in the work required to bring science missions to their full potential: e.g., technology development, data analysis, data archiving, and theory.”
14 November 2007 Astrophysics 2020 Conference 14
AstrophysicsDivision Looking Forward
Near- and Mid-term (~5-10 year) Fiscal Landscape• Assumptions
– Approximately flat Astrophysics Division Budget– Currently planned facilities operate at least as long as planned
for (but most will likely last longer)– Complete current missions in development– Basic Research & Analysis (R&A) funding will go up, or at worst
remain the same– Mission funding profile shapes will resemble those in the past
14 November 2007 Astrophysics 2020 Conference 15
AstrophysicsDivision What Can We Afford Near-term?
• Fixed costs for the next 5 years are $M (FY08)/yr– R&A, Mission Data Analysis, Theory: >130– Small Mission operations (e.g., GALEX, Swift, etc.): ~ 90– Medium Mission operations (e.g., Kepler, GLAST, etc.): ~130– Great Observatory operations: ~150– JWST development: ~300– Total >800
• Funding available for other things (medium-class missions,Explorers, …) by the end of the 5 year period ~300
• Balanced portfolio:– Reinvigorate R&A, suborbital; Missions of Opportunity– Medium class missions with cost envelope ~$600-700M at
~$150-200M/year peak requirement• E.g., JDEM, exoplanets, US share of LISA, additional Probe-class missions
– Next >$1B mission after JWST
14 November 2007 Astrophysics 2020 Conference 16
AstrophysicsDivision Strategic Mission Planning
For Large Astrophysics Missions beyond 2020 (“Exploration Observatories”):
• Could follow the example of Great Observatories in mission planning and timescales
– Science rationale: “killer ap(s)” plus broad scientific impact– Should significantly improve upon performance of Great
Observatories/JWST– Sustainable technology roadmaps– Identify the sequence of investments
• The previous Decadal Survey did this well, but the mission costs were so poorly estimated that resources for technology development have become highly constrained
14 November 2007 Astrophysics 2020 Conference 17
AstrophysicsDivision
Timing Intervals
• Historically, Great Observatories (CGRO was not really the same scale) are done in a one-at-a-time mode given other division constraints
• With time, the photon limited nature of astrophysics will mean that great observatories get harder to make, meaning longer development times [assuming similar funding for the division]
• Implication is that we can afford 1 to 1.5 great observatories per decade along with ~2-4 medium and ~3-5 smaller missions.
AstrophysicsDivision
Back-up
14 November 2007 Astrophysics 2020 Conference 19
AstrophysicsDivision
FY2008 Federal Budget Context
President's 2008 Budget (2.94 $T)
Defense Discretionary
Social Security
Medicare/Medicaid
Other Mandatory
NASA
Non-Defense Discretionary
Interest
14 November 2007 Astrophysics 2020 Conference 20
AstrophysicsDivision NASA Funding History
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
Year
NA
SA
Bu
dg
et
(FY
20
00
$B
)
Average Budget
($B FY2000)
14 November 2007 Astrophysics 2020 Conference 21
AstrophysicsDivision
New Horizons
ST-5
STEREO
Cloudsat
CALIPSO
GOES-N
ST-6
TWINS-A
Hinode
THEMIS
AIM
Phoenix
Dawn
TWINS-B
GLAST
IBEX
SDO
OCO
Glory
HST SM-4
OSTM
GOES-O
GOES-P
CINDI
Chandrayan 1
Herschel
Planck
Kepler
NPP
MSL
WISE
ST-8
SOFIA
NOAA-N’
ST-7/LPF
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
NASA Mission on US ELV
DoD Mission with Substantial NASA Contribution
Foreign Mission with Substantial NASA Contribution
Joint NASA - International Partner Mission
Reimbursable for NOAA
NASA Science Mission Launches (CY06-CY14)
2011
NuSTAR
Juno
LDCM
Mars Scout
20132012
RBSP MoO
SMEX
Discovery
ExoMars
SMEX
GPM Core
JWST
As of 09-25-07
GPM Const
MMS
ES Decadal 1
Discovery
2014
= Successfully launched to date
* = Early science; targeting 2009
Aquarius
14 November 2007 Astrophysics 2020 Conference 22
AstrophysicsDivision
Astrophysics Mission Timelines
Jan-90 Dec-92 Dec-95 Dec-98 Dec-01 Dec-04 Dec-07 Dec-10 Dec-13 Dec-16 Dec-19
HSTRXTEFUSE
ChandraXMM-Newton
WMAPIntegralGALEXSpitzerGPBSwift
SuzakuGLAST
HerschelPlanck
HST-SM4KeplerST-7WISESOFIANuStarJWST
Tan: mission in operation, Orange: mission in development, Blue: mission in formulation
Denotes prime mission lifetime at launch
14 November 2007 Astrophysics 2020 Conference 23
AstrophysicsDivision
Inhomogeneous Advocacy
• Difficult for agency planning and budgeting when conflicting priorities are received (cf., 2000 decadal survey and subsequent Q2C report)
• Suggestion: – provide mechanism for orderly assessment of decadal priorities
mid-stream (i.e., after, say 5 years) so agencies can respond to science demands or budget changes
– Knowledge of mechanism may reduce “freelancing”– Involve agency people in Decadal survey more than current model,
or devise two step process with Science first, followed by Tech+budget process
14 November 2007 Astrophysics 2020 Conference 24
AstrophysicsDivision Strategic Mission Concepts
• The Decadal Survey Cost Problems:– All strategic missions in the 2001 Decadal Survey were severely
undercosted
– Suggested improvements from Decadal Survey Workshop, including more rigorous cost estimation
• Goals of Strategic Mission Concept Studies– Develop inputs (not “guidance”) to Decadal Survey by supporting
technical work on community investigations and mission concepts
– Foster partnerships between govt, industry and academia, and build consensus
– Provide suite of concepts with consistent cost estimation methods that indicate how cost scales with size and complexity
14 November 2007 Astrophysics 2020 Conference 25
AstrophysicsDivision Strategic Mission Concepts
Concepts to utilize Exploration infrastructure:• LVs (Ares 1, Ares 5), human or robotic servicing
capabilities– Infrastructure – Platform– Long operational timescales
• Why is ~$600M used as the medium-class mission scale?
– Balanced portfolio in budget planning out to 2020 and beyond
– Take significant science and technology steps towards more ambitious missions and goals that current Explorer or Discovery programs cannot accommodate