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Assessment of Atmospheric Pollution in the Asia-Pacific: Science-based Solutions
Key findings
Markus Amann
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
47th Session of the Task Force on Integrated Assessment Modelling, Brescia, May 8-9, 2018
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POLICY INTERVENTIONS HELPED TO BREAK THE HISTORIC LINKAGEBETWEEN ECONOMIC GROWTH AND EMISSIONS IN ASIA
Source: IIASA, GAINS
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IN 2015, AIR QUALITY STANDARDS
WERE EXCEEDED OVER LARGE AREAS IN ASIA
AMBIENT PM2.5 IN 2015
Source: IIASA, GAINS
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2015 2030
Mea
n ex
posu
re [µ
g/m
3PM
2.5]
Exposure from human activitiesNatural sources
WHOguideline
WHOtarget 1
FURTHER AIR QUALITY IMPROVEMENTS IN ASIAREQUIRE A RE-ORIENTATION OF CURRENT POLICIES
Measures already in place in 2015• Vehicle emission standards• TSP(+SO2+NOx) controls at large plants
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2015 2030
Mea
n ex
posu
re [µ
g/m
3PM
2.5]
WHOguideline
WHOtarget 1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2015 2030
Mea
n ex
posu
re [µ
g/m
3PM
2.5]
WHOguideline
WHOtarget 1
Post-2015 legislation• SO2+NOx controls at stationary sources
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2015 2030
Mea
n ex
posu
re [µ
g/m
3PM
2.5]
WHOguideline
WHOtarget 1
Conventional PM controls
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2015 2030
Mea
n ex
posu
re [µ
g/m
3PM
2.5]
WHOguideline
WHOtarget 1
‘Next stage’ air quality measures• Fertilizer use, manure management• Open burning of waste and biomass• Forest fires, I&M of vehicles
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2015 2030
Mea
n ex
posu
re [µ
g/m
3PM
2.5]
WHOguideline
WHOtarget 1
Development measures• Clean cooking fuels, renewable energy• Energy efficiency, waste management• Public transport and electric vehicles
Mean population exposure to PM2.5
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THESE MEASURES CAN PROVIDE CLEAN AIRTO ONE BILLION PEOPLE
Source: IIASA, GAINS
0 1 2 3 4
2015
< WHO Guideline (10µg/m3) < WHO Target 1 (35µg/m3)
35-50 µg/m3 50-65 µg/m3
65-80 µg/m3 >80 µg/m3
People exposed to household pollution
Billion people exposed to PM2.5 concentrations
0 1 2 3 4
2015
Currentlegislation
2030
< WHO Guideline (10µg/m3) < WHO Target 1 (35µg/m3)
35-50 µg/m3 50-65 µg/m3
65-80 µg/m3 >80 µg/m3
People exposed to household pollution
Billion people exposed to PM2.5 concentrations
0 1 2 3 4
2015
Currentlegislation
2030
Top 25Clean AirMeasures
2030
< WHO Guideline (10µg/m3) < WHO Target 1 (35µg/m3)
35-50 µg/m3 50-65 µg/m3
65-80 µg/m3 >80 µg/m3
People exposed to household pollution
Billion people exposed to PM2.5 concentrations
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0
2
4
6
8
10
Redu
ctio
n of
pop
ulat
ion
expo
sure
to P
M2.
5in
2030
(µg
/m3 )
THE PRIORITY MEASURES DIFFER ACROSS REGIONS,DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN ECONOMIC STRUCTURES AND GEO-PHYSICAL CONDITIONS
Source: IIASA, GAINS
2015 measures CLE measures Further potential
East Asia - Exposure reduction potential (µg/m3)
02468
1012141618
South Asia
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INEQUALITIES OF POLLUTIONINDIA - 2010
LOW INCOME
HIGH INCOME
HEALTH BURDEN
LOW INCOME
HIGH INCOME
EMISSIONS
HEALTH BURDEN
LOW INCOME
HIGH INCOME
EMISSIONS
HEALTH BURDEN
EXPENDITURES FOR ENERGY(% OF INCOME)
Source: Kiesewetter et al., 2018
INCOME GROUPS
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Conventional controlsrelative to 2030 baseline 0% 0% -8%
‘Next stage’ measuresrelative to 2030 baseline
0% -29% -56%
Developmentmeasuresrelative to 2030 baseline
-19% -44% -72%
THE TOP 25 CLEAN AIR MEASURES ALSO AFFECT CLIMATE FORCERS
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2015 2030
Mea
n ex
posu
re [µ
g/m
3PM
2.5]
WHOguideline
WHOtarget 1
Mean population exposure to PM2.5
Climate forcers SDG
CO2 CH4 BC benefits
Current legislationrelative to 2015*) +16% +17% -24%
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THE DEVELOPMENT MEASURES COULD REDUCE GLOBALTEMPERATURE INCREASE BY ONE THIRD DEGREE
-0.6
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
Currentlegislation
Conventionalmeasures
+'Next generation'measures
+Developmentmeasures
Diffe
renc
e in
glo
bal m
ean
tem
pera
ture
in 2
050
rela
tive
to b
asel
ine
(°C)
Other air pollutants SLCPs (CH4+BC+HFC) CO2 Net change
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THE TOP 25 MEASURES COULD SLOW DOWN GLOBAL TEMPERATUREINCREASE IN THE NEAR-TERM
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Diffe
renc
e in
glo
bal m
ean
tem
pera
ture
in 2
050
rela
tive
to b
asel
ine
(°C)
Other air pollutants SLCPs (CH4+BC+HFC) CO2 Net change
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Conventional controlsrelative to 2030 baseline 0% 0% -8%
‘Next stage’ measuresrelative to 2030 baseline
0% -29% -56%
Developmentmeasuresrelative to 2030 baseline
-19% -44% -72%
THE NEW POLICY MEASURES WOULD HAVE IMPORTANTCO-BENEFITS ON SDGS
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2015 2030
Mea
n ex
posu
re [µ
g/m
3PM
2.5]
WHOguideline
WHOtarget 1
Mean population exposure to PM2.5
Climate forcers SDG
CO2 CH4 BC benefits
Current legislationrelative to 2015*) +16% +17% -24%
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Key messages
• While current policies limit a further increase of emissions in Asia, they will not be sufficient to significantly improve air quality.
• To move towards the Air Quality Standards, measures that involve other sectors (agriculture, energy, waste management, etc.) will be indispensable.
• The Top 25 Clean Air Measures will deliver a wide range of health- and other development benefits and reduce pollutants that influence temperature increase and climate.
• Integrated multi-approaches (such as in the LRTAP Convention) could embed air quality measures in the development agendas, and offer powerful incentives for measures that serve the global goods.