ASPO-Australia
Peak Oil, Petrol Prices, Climate Change & Rural Communities
Dr Jim Barson
Convenor of the Health Sector Working Group ASPO-Australia
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Introduction
Overview The Rural Economy Transport Travel & Tourism Industry &Employment Population Health Service Delivery
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General Observations
Prediction is hard, especially about the future!
Peak oil will happen in stages T1-T4 The global situation will set the stage Australia is lucky with large reserves of
natural gas, although not where we want it. Potential for mitigation
Climate Change is a lot scarier than Peak Oil and they have a common solution set
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The Rural Economy
The rural economy could behave differently to the cities
Relocalisation could be seen as a natural response to ↓ mobility?
This might reverse the population drift to the cities
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The Rural Economy
Rural areas have some advantages Capacity for self sufficiency Rural and regional towns could
function very well with reduced car transport
Identity and sense of community
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The Rural Economy
Rural areas have some disadvantages Fuel prices will be higher with a wider
spread, instability and possible shortages
Starting from a lower income base Less diversity of industry to start with Services stretched by distance
Road maintenance Waste collection Power, water etc.
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Employment & Business in Rural Communities Some industrial, transport and tourism
based employment will likely decrease Some local employment will likely
increase Local small scale (+/-organic) food
production will be competitive Local ingenuity & innovation Repair, reuse, recycle, reduce Local services
Some services will have to decentralise and expand locally eg. hospitals
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Employment & Business in Rural Communities Local and seasonal food will be cost
competitive Local business will be more competitive Possibly less ‘Big Box’ retail ‘Captive Population’ to support small
retailers New technology business opportunities
will arise as mobility becomes more expensive.
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Farming Industry Employment Industrial farming is very energy
intensive Fuel Fertiliser Chemicals
Farming with less petroleum will employ a lot more labour.
Cuba is an interesting case study
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Tourism Huge employer What will happen to overall numbers?
International visitors (Airfares ? ↑) Overall economy (? ↓) Local tourism ↓ with fuel prices ↑
What will happen to short stay B&B ? Will there be an increase in the longer
stay accommodation? What will happen to the holiday home
market? Local strategies in marketing and
mobility will be important
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Transport & Travel
Railways are vitally important as they very fuel efficient and should be rebuilt and expanded as a matter of urgency
Road transport will probably decline unless CNG and LNG come on stream soon
Public and active transport should increase
Small communities will benefit from being linked with minibuses, bike trails and walking tracks
Community ride share programs
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Transport & Travel
Sustained high and continuously rising fuel prices will impact on mobility and redefine boundaries
Urban Urban-Fringe Regional Rural Remote
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Transport & Travel
Personal mobility will probably decline
If car ownership declines?Only the wealthy elite?Impact on social cohesion?Anti-democratic
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Population in Rural and Regional towns
Life without a car will be possible
Work Education Food Fun
Local food and industry Sense of community Livable, walkable scale Car free existence possible Critical population for markets, skills,
infrastructure
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Population in Rural and Regional towns How big is big enough? How big is too big? ‘Goldilocks Solution’
Zoning to prevent sprawl Development as linked self sufficient
villages
Folke, G. Ruralisation- Integrating Settlements and Agriculture to provide Sustainability
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Health Service Delivery
World class system Big problems on the horizon Costs unsustainable on current trends Aging population Unreasonable expectations Peak oil timing could not be worse Things have to change Who gets what, where, when, how, and
at whose expense?
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Peak Oil and Healthcare
Deterioration of the economy Government Business
Unsustainable complexity Decreased mobility for patients and staff Increased costs for all material inputs Need to decrease use of disposables Logistics of drugs and essential goods Service delivery
Food, linen, waste Outsourcing reversal
Will the private practice model of medicine survive Peak Oil?
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Peak Oil and Rural Healthcare Redefining boundaries
Geographic mobility Procedural complexity
Increased role for small hospitals Increased demand on country
doctors Training and support
Reassessment of risk management
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Some Ideas for Healthcare Delivery High speed broadband
‘Stranded’ Patient ↔ Consultant ‘Stranded’ GP ↔ Consultant
Live in facilities for staff Mobile service delivery Support for local industries
Generic drugs Generic equipment
Health funding priorities Smart card fuel rationing Rationing of treatments Community discussion and comment
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Things to do as a Community Talk about Peak Oil and Climate
Change Be frugal with fuel Improve efficiency Continue to work on alternative
fuels such biodiesel, CNG, LNG
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Things to do as Individuals
Get out of debt, economise, think of how you might live on half your income
Move to the non-discretionary side of the economy, aim to satisfy needs not wants
Reduce, reuse, repair, recycle Produce as much as you can of what you need
and something of value to others Get to know the neighbours, share skills and
resources, nobody can do everything but everyone can do something.
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