Download - Architecture for Increasing Space Markets
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Architecture for IncreasingSpace Markets
Daniel HettemaScott Neal
Anh QuachRobert Taylor
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Agenda• Context• Stakeholders• Problem & Need Statements• Architecture Requirements• Objective & Proposed Solution• Design Process• Simulation• Transitional Architecture Plan• Conclusion• Management
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CONTEXT
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Context• Space has resources that could be
used on Earth, or in space to develop a space market
• Capabilities and/or technologies for taking advantage of those resources do not currently exist
• Through an incremental “stepping stone” approach, capabilities and/or technologies can be developed to expand the market
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Unmanned Probe to Alpha
Centauri
Near Earth Colonies
Near- Earth Asteroid Mining
and Manufacturing
Space Power Generation &
Asteroid Defense
Hotel , Space Tourism & Garbage Collection
Resulting Commercial Products• Being search for new
habitable planets• Test long-range propulsion
technologies
Resulting Commercial Productions• New Living space• New ways to improve
environment on Earth
Resulting Commercial Products• New Materials• New, low-temp, low-pressure
manufacturing techniques
Direct Products• Minerals• Energy
Potential Indirect Products/Results• Improved protection for Earth from
Space artifacts• Enhance international cooperation
New Enabling Technologies• Improved Propulsion• Improved life support
“Stepping Stones”
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Potential for ROI in Space
ROI
Time
Space Market
Potential plan
Current plan
Gap
“Obtaining economic benefits from commercial space, including tourism and space solar power…should be the major thrust of our space enterprise.”
-SSI Director Dr. Lee Valentine (2002)
1x
2x
-2x
-1x
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Current Market• Big Players
– Tourism– Government– Private Industry
• Resources– Solar– Moon– Asteroids
• Limitations– Launch Costs– Funding– Public Interest
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Tourism Market• $758.7B [US] (EITT, 2010)• Current plans
– Virgin Galactic• Current space trips: Starting at $200k
– 6 minutes at 68 miles above Earth’s surface– Speeds up to 2500 MPH (Virgin, 2011)
– Bigelow Aerospace• Invested $180M, will invest up to $.5B• Expandable Space Habitat designs and
prototypes (Bigelow, 2011)8
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Governments• Funding
– Steve Anderson, Brigadier General (Ret.)• US spends $20B air-conditioning tents and
temporary structures in Iraq• NASA annual budget is $18.7B (Opam, 2011)
– $71B spent over 50 countries on space programs in 2010
• China: $1.3B • Russia: $3.8B• India: $1.25B (EARSC, 2011)
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Private Industry• SpaceX
– Projected to obtain $1k/lb launch cost goal• Should be maintained if 4 launches annually
– Announced April 2011• First projected launch in 2013
– Payload of 53,000 kg (116,845 lb)– Classification
• Super Heavy (≥50,000 kg)
(SpaceX, 2011)
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Limitation• Launch costs
– Need for a lower cost per pound index• Government Funding
– Not enough funding by governments• Budgets too small or non-existent
• Laws– Moon treaty
• Bans any state from claiming sovereignty over any territory of celestial bodies. Not ratified by US or other space capable countries.
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Potential Market Resources
• Space Conditions:–Vacuum–Low gravity–Temperature extremes
• Resources in space:–Solar power–Minerals
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Resources In Space: Energy
• $370 B [US] (USCB,2011)• Space Based Solar Power:
• Geostationary SBSP receives nearly continuous sunlight 99% of operational time
– If launch costs of $200/lb could be attained, energy could be sold at as low as 8¢/kWh (NSSO, 2007)
• Natural Gas: approx. 3.9-4.4¢/kWh• Coal: approx. 4.8-5.5¢/kWh• Nuclear: approx. 11.1-14.5¢/kWh
(PES,2011)
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Resources In Space: SBSP
High solar energy reception (>3x)Transmission Efficiency to Earth: 80-90% (1122-1260 Watts/m2)
(NSSO, 2007)
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Resources In Space: Minerals
• Moon• Oxygen, silicon, iron, nitrogen, magnesium,
aluminum, and calcium (Brian, 2010)• Asteroids
• > 832 – 1km in NEO (NASA, 2011)• Composition
• Iridium, osmium, platinum, helium, copper• Nickel, iron, gold, oxygen, hydrogen, nitrogen• Potassium, phosphorus
• What minerals needed for life?• Water, oxygen (human life)• Nitrogen, potassium, phosphorus (plant life)
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Resource Values on Earth
Current market value per ounce:– Gold - $1642– Platinum -$1519– Rhodium - $1625– Iridium - $1085– Palladium - $605
(Matthey, 2011)
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Minerals Vs Time
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
0500
1000150020002500300035004000450050005500600065007000
Gold PlatinumRhodiumIridiumPalladium
Year
Pric
e pe
r Oun
ce (U
S$)
(Matthey, 2011)
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Platinum Trends
19921994
19961998
20002002
20042006
20082010
20122014
20162018
20200
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800f(x) = 71.2751654135338 x + 31.8422631578944R² = 0.832130267500056
Platinum
PlatinumLinear (Platinum)
Years
Price
per
oun
ce
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Potential for ROI in Space
ROI
Time
Space Market
Potential plan
Current plan
Gap1x
2x
-2x
-1x
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STAKEHOLDERS
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Major and MinorStakeholders
• Major stakeholders– Governments– Insurance– Mining &
Manufacturing– Tourism– Earth’s
Population– Energy
• Minor stakeholders– Robotics– Launch– Command &
Control– Agriculture– Telecommunicati
on
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Potential Stakeholder Diagram
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Gap: Limited Market
Current Stakeholder Diagram
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Potential Stakeholder Diagram
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Current Stakeholder Diagram
Tension:No collaboration
betweenIndustries
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Stakeholder Objectives• Government’s Objective
– Expand domain, boost economy, protect the people
• Planetary Defense• Protect against misuse of space
• Insurance’s Objective– Lower risk in space
• Satellites
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Stakeholder Objectives (cont’d)
• Mining Objective– Sustainable space-based mining
• Manufacturing Objective– Establish permanent manufacturing
facilities in space• Tourism Objective
– sustainable space-based tourism economy
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Stakeholder Objectives (cont’d)
• Earth’s Population’s Objective– Better life
• More resources = More products• Potential new techniques in space
• Energy Objective– Provide energy to Earth & space at
minimal detriment to the environment
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Minor Stakeholders• Robotics
– Autonomy• Telecommunication
– Tele-autonomy, Communication• Launch
– Launch sites• Command & Control
– Administrative• Agriculture
– Food production in space• Entertainment
– Inspiration, publicity
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PROBLEM & NEED STATEMENT
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Problem StatementThere are potentially large markets that can utilize the resources and benefits of space. However, the
capabilities to utilize those resources do not cost effectively exist in current
markets. Through an incremental “stepping stone” approach, the
architecture will show the order for the development of capabilities to attain
resource utilization in space.
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Need StatementCurrently, the required investment needed to capture space resources is too high. A
high-level architecture that shows how through an incremental “stepping stone” approach the total investment could be
lowered, as industry collaboration is increased. The architecture will provide a road map for industry investments with a
minimum of 1.5x return on investment from a total investment of less than one
trillion dollars annually.
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ARCHITECTURE REQUIREMENTS
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RequirementsThe architecture shall:
– show the overall investment from industries is less than one trillion dollars annually.
– be designed such that no individual stakeholder will invest more than 10% of overall investment.
– produce a plan that generates an ROI of at least 150% for all stakeholders over 5 years.
– be limited to three levels of functional decomposition.
– produce a plan for investment into capabilities defined as necessary for a space market.
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OBJECTIVE & PROPOSED SOLUTION
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Proposed SolutionDesign a high-level transitional
architecture that shows how industry collaboration can be used to further develop capabilities for space development. The design will show through a sequence of
stepping stones how investment in capabilities could be leveraged
from the current market position.36
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Objective of Project• Thesis:
– Corporation can make money in space– Without mining & manufacturing the required
investment from other industries is larger• Generate an ROI calculator
– Allows industries to input their data• Included in SPEC Innovations proposal for
DARPA’s 100 Year Starship– GMU Space ROI and Architecture:
“Identifies potential for return on investment for space to attract commercial and public support”
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DESIGN PROCESS
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Top Level Classic Context Diagram
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Model Context
NOW NEAR TERM………….. LONG TERM
TransitionAs - Is To - Be
How you move from now to then Your Vision
-From SPEC Innovations
What you have
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As-Is Conceptual Model• Very Limited Functionality• Restricted by:
– Investment– Laws– Launch capabilities– Technology development
• Well known
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To-Be Conceptual Model• Contains key functionality for
developed space• Allows industry's “assets” to
perform together• Illustrates collaborative efforts
between industries
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Operational Scenarios: Process
• Construct 7 scenarios for developing space
• Range from easy to complex• Each scenario builds functionally
on the previous scenario
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Operational Scenarios1. Moon Round-trip2. Debris Collection3. Space Based Solar Power4. Lunar Hotel from Earth5. Solar Flare at Lunar Hotel6. Space Mining7. Lunar Hotel with Space
Materials
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Operational ScenariosScenario Business Environme
ntal RiskLaunch Location
Max Distance
Product Expected Duration
1 Tourism None Earth Moon None 10 days
2 Insurance/Recycling/Governments
None Earth GEO Recycled materials, reduced risk
3 days
3 Energy None Earth GEO Energy None
4 Tourism/Manufacturing
None Earth/Moon
Moon Hotel Long Term
5 Tourism/Manufacturing
Solar Flare Earth/Moon
Moon Hotel Long Term
6 Mining None Earth/Asteroid
1.3 AU Ore 3 years
7 Tourism/Mining/Manufacturing
Micro meteorite
All 1.3 AU Hotel/Ore Long term
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Scenario 11. Launch from Earth2. Establish course to Moon3. Traverse to Moon4. Enter Moon orbit5. Maintain Moon orbit6. Leave Moon orbit7. Establish course to Earth8. Traverse to Earth9. Land on Earth10.Service vehicle
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Enhanced Function Flow Block Diagram (EFFBD)
Loop
Function
Parallel Branches
Output
Input
Trigger
Exit Condition
Loop Exit
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Functional Model: Scenario 1
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Scenario 1 Elements• Assets:
– Earth, Moon, space ship• Resource:
– Space ship fuel (consumed)• Potential Costs:
– Fuel consumption, function based on duration
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Integrated Behavior Model
• Abstracted functionally from all scenarios
• Validated by scenarios• Identifies:
– Necessary functions– “Generic” assets
• Will be in a “steady state”• Foundation for ROI calculator
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SIMULATION
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Simulation• Using Vitech CORE Sim
– Built-in to CORE– Includes COREScript
• Modify element’s parameters– Duration, Cost, Amounts
Schedule CostPerformance
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Simulation Purpose• Aids in validating functional model• Shows logical loops, resource
manipulation• Shows element attribute
manipulation’s effect on whole system– Reducing the cost of an asset– Decreasing communications delay
• Design of Transitional Architecture is dictated by simulation
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Simulation of Scenario 1
• Video of scenario 1 simulation
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Simulation of Scenario 1
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TRANSITIONALARCHITECTURE PLAN
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Design of Experiment• Perform a Functionality Gap
Analysis• Produce the Integrated
Behavioral Model• Use Integrated Behavioral Model
to create the ROI calculator• Use ROI calculator to produce
architecture design plans for maximizing ROI
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Functionality Gap Analysis
• Identifies functions from completed “To-Be” model that are:– Underdeveloped in “As-Is”– Nonexistent in “As-Is”
• Identifies limitations from “As-Is” that need to be overcome
• Identifies necessary future capabilities/technologies
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An ROI Calculator• If an industry was to invest some
value at this time, the investment will show an ROI %
• Based on:– Element attributes– Estimated functionality costs
• Compare full lifecycle costs on Earth to those in space
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Notional ROI Equations• ROI = Revenue – Investment
-
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Investment Plan• Gantt Chart showing the
sequence of capabilities/technologies for development
• Identifies critical capabilities/technologies for each of the “stepping stones”
• Focus on having sustainability at each level
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Investment Plan: Alternatives
• The ROI calculator will produce alternative outputs
• Outputs will vary due to– Adjustments in investments from
industries– Adjusted time constraints– Breakthroughs in capabilities or
technology– not developing a capability or
technology
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Value HierarchyValue
HierarchyGovernment
.16
Earth’s Population
.1 Mining & Manufacturing
.25
Tourism
.16
Energy
.16
Insurance
.17
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Value HierarchyMining &
Manufacturing.25
Environment Sustainability Profitability
Earth’s Population
.1
Security Quality of Life
Environment
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CONCLUSION
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Summary• Create a high-level architecture that
will bridge the gap between today’s current market plan (little to no ROI) and a future potential plan (significantly higher ROI with limited risk involved)
• Provides an investment plan for the functionality of a space market
• Eases tension between industries by promoting collaboration
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Implementation
• Utilizing the transitional architecture will close the gap
ROI
Time
Space Market
Potential plan
Current plan
Generated market plan
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Continuing Work• Create functional models of
scenarios• Validate Integrated Behavior
Model• Perform functional gap analysis• Identify necessary technologies• Develop the ROI calculator• Test project thesis• Present Recommendations
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MANAGEMENT
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Management• Architecture Development
Process• Project Risks• Work Breakdown Structure
(WBS)• Project Budget• Project Schedule
– Critical Path
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14. Provide Options
Architecture Development Process
5. Develop the Operational Context Diagram
15. Conduct Trade-off Analyses
6. Develop Operational Scenarios
1. Capture and Analyze Related Artifacts
4. Capture Constraints
3. Identify Existing/Planned Systems
2. Identify Assumptions
7. Derive Functional Behavior
8. Derive Assets
10. Prepare Interface Diagrams
12. Perform Dynamic Analysis
11. Define Resources, Error Detection & Recovery
13. Develop Operational Demonstration Master Plan
16. Generate Operational and System Architecture Graphics, Briefings and Reports
Requirements Analysis
Functional Analysis
Synthesis
System Analysis and Control
9. Allocate Actions to Assets
time
71 Provided by: SPEC Innovations
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RiskValidation of Integrated
Behavior Model
Incomplete Gap Analysis
Mitigation Plan• Increase complexity of
Scenarios• Meet with SME
• Add level of depth to
Integrated Behavior Model
Project Risk
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WBS
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WBS
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WBS
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Budget
13.5 hr per person per week, 54 hr per week
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200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
Project Budget
New BudgetActualEarned Value
Weeks
Dolla
rs
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QUESTIONS?