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Como realizar um projeto de
consultoriaDemetrio Lino Di Martino
So Paulo, setembro, 2002
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2
GENERIC PROJECT PLAN EXAMPLE
Start-up
Decision on team members
Team building activities
Hypothesis generation
Distribution of tasksBuilding hypotheses
Financial situation
Market situationFact-finding and analysis
Meeting with subteam
Preparation of master forsteering committee
Conclusions andrecommendations
Improvements in production
Improvements in marketingLaunch change
Production
Marketing
Tasks Weeks 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
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3
ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE OF CONSULTING PROJECTS
Core team
ClientsConsultants
Client team
Clients only
Subteam 1
Clients with/withoutconsultants
Steering committee
Top management
Client team membersConsultants
Function
Project executionRunning the (sub-) projectsControlling the (sub-) projectsSteering and runningsubteams
Function
Leadership Steering course of theproject
Controlling impact of thewhole project
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4
CLIENT/CONSULTANTS COLLABORATION
Core team
Client
Consultant
Multiple industryexpertise
Problem-solvingtechniques
Companyexperience
PeopleOrganization
Productsand processknowledge
Marketexperience
Internal webof experts
Projectmanagement
Analyticaltools
Worldwideweb of experts
Processmanagement
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Understand
need for
project
Understand
Client
environment
Organize
the team
and get
started
Gain exper-
tise by usingconsultant
and clientresources
Plan thecommuni-
cation
strategy
Start problemsolving
Read LOP
Talk to studynegotiator andED
Understanddegrees offreedom
Be clear onexpected endproducts
Companybackground(basicdocuments)
Organizationalcharts
PreviousConsultantongoingstudies(interview withother
consultants)Roles and
profiles of topmanagement
Stakeholders:potentialwinners/losers
Shareunderstanding of problemwith theteam basedon LOP
Develop firstissueanalysis andearly answer
Team charter:role, agenda,andobjectivesof
ED/associateCommunicati
on with client(who speakswith whom?)
Role of clientteam
Agendas/roles of membersof client team
Kickoffmeetingschedule
Formal
Informal
Scheduleprogress
reviewsandworkshops
Do notreinvent thewheel
Get a few
relevant PDsFindConsultantexperts
On topic On industry
On client
Identifypotentialinformationsources withR&I
START-UP CHECKLIST: WHAT MUST EMs DO IN THEFIRST DAYS OF THE ENGAGEMENT?
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Think disaggregationand early hypothesis:what could be the keyelements of the
problem?
Think impact: whatdoes the client needto know?
Think speed: whichissues are mostimportant for team tofocus on?
Think efficiency:how and whereshouldthe teamspend its time?
Think so what:what are we tryingto prove/disprove?
Think potentialsolution: whatshould the clientdo?
Think nextiteration:what are clientnext priorities?
Think buy-in: howshould the teamconnect to theclient in everystep?
PROBLEM-SOLVING LOOP (7 EASY STEPS)
Clientproblem
1Define Problem
2Structureproblem
3Prioritizeissues 4
DevelopIssueanalysisand work
plan5
ConductAnalysis
6Synthesize
Findings
7DevelopRecom-menda-
tions
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WHAT IS GOOD PROBLEM SOLVING?
Good strategic problem solving is notanalytical wizardry
Good strategic problem solving is differentbecause it cuts across conventionalapproaches
Good problem solving uses frameworks tohelp understand and solve the problem
Good problem solving begins and endswith good communication
Impact-driven
Hypothesis-oriented
Fact-basedModular, but holistic
Iterative
End product-focused
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PROBLEM STATEMENT WORKSHEETBasic question to be resolvedThe basic question brings focus to the analytic work it should be succinct and ensure that the findings canbe acted upon. The more specific the statement the better, provided it is not so narrow that important levers tosolve the problem are missed
1 Perspective/context 3 Decision makers
2 Criteria for success
4 Other key study stakeholders
6 Scope of solution space
5 Constraints within solution space
Comments on the situation and complicationfacing the client, e.g., industry trends, relativeposition in the industry
Refers to the basis on which the client willdecide whether or not to act on the studyrecommendations, e.g., financial returns,
effect on staff, market share growth Defines the limits to the set of solutions that canbe considered. Note: constraints may have tobe relaxed as the study proceeds
Indicates what will not be included in the study, e.g., international markets, research and development
activities, uncontrolled corporate costs
Identifies who at the client decides whether toact upon the study recommendations, e.g.,CEO, Division Manager, SBU Manager
Identifies who else could support/derail thestudy and who else is influential
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PROBLEM STATEMENT WORKSHEET: Organizaes TabajaraEXAMPLE
Basic question to be resolvedHow can Organizaes Tabajara close the US$100 million profitability gap in 2 years and create a sustainableeconomic platform for the future?
1 Perspective/context 3 Decision makers
2 Criteria for success
4 Other key study stakeholders
6 Scope of solution space
5 Constraints within solution space
Rapidly consolidating industry Explosion of channels Deregulation leading to many new
non-traditional players Emergence of e-banks with much
lower cost base
Close the US$100 million gap within 2 years
Keep operating the bank as an independentcompany
Focus on retail banking only
Focus on US only
CEO of Tabajara
Tabajara Board of Directors
Shareholders
Employees Regulatory authorities
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QUALITY ISSUE TREES ARECONSISTENT, RELEVANT, AND MECE
MutuallyMutuallyExclusiveExclusiveCollectivelyCollectivelyExhaustiveExhaustive
First line ofsupport
Second line ofsupport
ProblemStatementWorksheet
Basic question toBasic question tobe resolvedbe resolved
Consistent
Consistent
Consistent
Consistent
RelevantRelevant
Basic question to beresolved
1.Perspective/ context
3Decisionmakers
2.
Criteria forsuccess
5.Constraints withinsolutionspace 6. Scope of
solution space
4.Other keystudystakeholders
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Source: Consultant
IDEA OF STRUCTURED PROBLEM-SOLVING: ISSUE TREE
Key advantages
Facilitates problem-solving
Parts of problemeasier to handle
Helps to maintainfocus
Facilitates planning Working in parallelpossible
Difficulties easierto detect
Facilitates
communication
ISSUE TREE EXAMPLE
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ISSUE TREE EXAMPLE
How can I havemore moneyat the end of themonth withoutincurring a debt?
Increaseincome
Reduceexpenses
Receive awindfall
Receive more $
from work
Pay less forsame amountof items
Buy less
Legally
Illegally
Work morehours
Make moreper hour
Buy lowerquality items
Shop aroundfor specials
Inherit
Win lottery
Higherjob level
Better paidindustry
How? How?
Receive more $from investments
Overtime
Additional job
Food Clothing Utensils Entertainment Travel Other
. . .
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Source: Consultant
Requirements for problem-solving
Focus on key issuesMECE
No "boiling the ocean"
Additional benefit forproblem-solving
100%
80%
20% 100% Effort to structureproblem
Try to beMECE
Try to be perfect
HOW TO PRIORITIZE: 80-20 RULE
NOTC
OSTEFF
ICIENT
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Use judgement/intuitionUse judgement/intuition
Do back-of-the-Do back-of-the-
envelope calculationsenvelope calculations
Involve your clientInvolve your client
Take risksTake risks
HOW TO PRIORITIZE
20
80
80
20
Time andTime andefforteffort
Focusing onFocusing onimpactimpact
PolishingPolishing
Benefit forBenefit forproblemproblemsolvingsolving
Be practical!
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PRIORITIZATION PARAMETERS
Low
HighLow
High
Financial impact(within 2 years)
Easeofimplementation
Do now
Plan howTo do now
Do later
Wait
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ISSUE ANALYSIS SETS THE STAGE FOR ACTION
Logic treeafter prioritization of issues
1
2
3
Issue analysis
Analyses
TO DOsTO DOs
MonMon TueTue WedWed ThuThu FriFri
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Issue HypothesisSupportingrationale
Information/Analysis
Source/Provider
Issue analysis worksheet
FROM ISSUE ANALYSIS TO WORKPLAN
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ISSUE ANALYSIS WORKSHEET
Hypothesis SupportingrationaleInformation/Analysis
Source/ProviderIssue
Key issue orunresolved question
that elicits a yes orno answer and onwhich a specificaction depends
Statement of thelikely resolution
of the issue;it includes thereason foranswering yesor no
Arguments thatare necessary and
sufficient to supportthe hypothesis
Analyses thatshould be
conducted to eitherconfirm or refute thehypothesis, and thusresolve the issue
Likely location andmeans of
obtaining data foranalyses
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ATTRIBUTES OF THE PYRAMID
So what?
Synth
esis
Synth
esis
Commu
nication
Commu
nication
What?Why?How?
+
CoherenceCoherence
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TWO TYPES OF REASONING IN STORYLINE PYRAMIDS
Grouping structure
Governing thought supported by separate butcoherent ideas (e.g., reasons, actions)
Argument structure
+
Governing thought supported by a progression ofideas: from a statement and a comment on thatstatement follows an implication
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CHOOSE RIGHT STRUCTURE FOR YOUR AUDIENCE
ReasonsActions
Receptive audience
vs.
vs.
vs.
ReasoningNeed for action
Resistant audience
ArgumentGrouping
Governingthought
Governingthought
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GROUPINGS SYNTHESIZE UP TO A GOVERNING THOUGHT
GoverningthoughtGoverningthought
Action or
reason
Action or
reason
Action or
reason
Action or
reason
Action or
reason
Action or
reason
Fact /
analysis
Fact /
analysis
Fact /
analysis
Fact /
analysis
What? Why? How?
Fact /
analysis
Fact /
analysis
Fact /
analysis
Fact /
analysis
Fact /
analysis
Fact /
analysis
Fact /
analysis
Fact /
analysis
How do you knowthat?
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EXAMPLE: Organizaes Tabajara COMMUNITY IMAGE PYRAMID
Tax breakTax breakAfter- hoursevents
After- hoursevents
Sendmailings withstatements
Sendmailings with
statements
It wouldcreate
positivecoverage
It wouldcreate
positivecoverage
It would givean in with
large players
It would givean in with
large players
It wouldenhanceTabajarareputation
It wouldenhance
Tabajarareputation
To improve its communityimage, Organizaes Tabajara
should raise funds for theHousing for the Homelesscharity
To improve its communityimage, Organizaes Tabajara
should raise funds for theHousing for the Homelesscharity
It would not costmuchIt would not costmuch
It has severalmarketing
advantages
It has severalmarketing
advantages
It would boostemployee moraleIt would boostemployee morale
Pastvolunteer
work
Pastvolunteer
work
EmployeesurveyEmployeesurvey
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ARGUMENTS ALSO REQUIRE SYNTHESIS
Statement abouta situation
Comment onthat situation
Implication(therefore...)
Governingthought
encompassingall three legs of
argument
+
Why?
ReasonReasonReasonReason ReasonReasonReasonReason ActionActionActionAction
Why? How?
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ARGUMENT EXAMPLE: GENERAL
Low cost is thekey to long-termsuccess inCompany Xsmarket
Relative tocompetitors,Company X is ata costdisadvantage
Therefore,Company Xshould seek toreduce its costs
To compete long-
term, Company Xneeds to reduce itscosts
+
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SYNTHESIZE FINDINGS/PREPARE COMMUNICATION
Can you tell the CEO in 30 seconds
Where you are heading?Key issues?What the solution is?
ELEVATOR TEST
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FROM PYRAMID TO DOCUMENT STRUCTURE
Governingthought
A B C
1 3 52 4 76
a b
MAJOR AMinor 1Minor 2
Support aSupport b
MAJOR BMinor 3Minor 4
MAJOR CMinor 5Minor 6Support cSupport d
Minor 7
Governingthought
c d
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Document title
Client name
Document type
Place, Date
Introduction/context
Governing thought
Major
Major
Major
MAJOR
Minor
Minor
MinorSo what/message
MinorSo what/message
1 2
543
FROM PYRAMID TO STORYBOARD
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PONTOS RELEVANTES DA ESTRATGIA PARA O PORTO
O estudo detalhado das opes estratgicas para o negcio porturio foi fundamentado na
existncia do terminal como ativo estratgico das Organizaes Tabajara hoje alm de levar emconsiderao as possveis oportunidades de estabelecer um novo jogador no negcio logsticono Brasil
Esta oportunidade de diversificao passa pela anlise do potencial de otimizao da operaoatual, a expanso do terminal, a expanso para outras reas geogrficas e a possibilidade daFosfertil entrar no jogo logstico
A anlise da expanso das atividades porturias no terminal no indica, at o momento, que estaseria uma possibilidade atrativa para as Organizaes Tabajara, especialmente quandoconsideram-se as condies desfavorveis do cenrio competitivo e os elevados investimentosnecessrios
- O mercado onde o terminal pode competir reduzido e fragmentado
- Em geral, a capacidade de carga/descarga disponvel no mercado consegue atender a expansode demanda prevista para os prximos anos
- A captura de fatias de mercado dificultada tambm pela baixa diferenciao da proposta de
valor do terminal, especialmente em relao ao porto de Santos- O elevado nvel de investimentos necessrios para qualquer projeto de expanso do terminal
reduz significativamente as possibilidades de obter retornos positivos
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AVALIAO DA EXPANSO DO PORTO
Fonte: Consultant
Oportunidade comriscos elevadosOportunidade comriscos elevados
Volumescapturveispelo terminallimitados
Volumescapturveispelo terminallimitados
Excesso decapacidadede carga/descarga nomercado
Excesso decapacidadede carga/descarga nomercado
Investimentosno terminalelevados
Investimentosno terminalelevados
Proposta devalor do
terminalpoucodiferenciada
Proposta devalor do
terminalpoucodiferenciada
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DEFINIO DO MERCADO ALVO PARA O TERMINAL
* Excludas as movimentaes dos estados do norte, nordeste e RS
** Excludas as movimentaes de carga geral*** Excludas as movimentaes de produtos com baixa flexibilidade logstica (p.ex., minrio, carvo, coque, trigo)Fonte: Agncia Nacional dos Transportes Aquavirios, entrevistas, Consultant
milhes de toneladas
Movi-men-taes2000
Filtrogeo-grfico*
Movi-men-taesES, RJ,SP, PR,SC
Filtrotipo decarga**
Movi-men-taesgranisES, RJ,SP, PR,SC
Filtroflexibili-dadelogs-tica ***
Mercadode refe-rncia
Filtromovi-men-taescativas
Filtrocalado
Mercado-alvo 2000
Mercado-alvo 2005
Excl. dederi-vadosdepetrleo
= 2,4milhes
de t
CAGR = 3,8%
Inclui 100% dasmovimentaes de
Santos mais soja efertilizantes dosoutros portos da
regio
Inclui 100% dasmovimentaes de
Santos mais soja efertilizantes dosoutros portos da
regio
Os derivados de
petrleo do porto de Santosforam excludos doclculo por serem
analisadosseparadamente
Os derivados de
petrleo do porto de Santosforam excludos doclculo por serem
analisadosseparadamente
ESTIMATIVA
COMPOSIO DO MERCADO ALVO POR PRODUTO
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COMPOSIO DO MERCADO ALVO POR PRODUTO
* Esprito Santo, Rio de Janeiro, So Paulo, Paran, Santa Catarina** Soda caustica, leo vegetal, Outros produtos qumicos, outros graneis lquidosFonte: Agncia Nacional dos Transportes Aquavirios, entrevistas, Consultant
2005, milhes de toneladas
MovimentaesSantosA fragmentao excessiva das movimentaes em produtos
diferentes afeta negativamente a produtividade dos terminaisAs movimentaes de outros portos so mais difceis de sercapturadas em virtude do custo da inteira cadeia logstica
Fertili-zantes
Soja Enxofre Trigo Sal Acar Mercadoalvo 2005
4,6
3,
4
1,0
14,0
Paranagu35%
Granislquidos**
% do mercadode referncia 5535 20 55 9539 4
% das movi-mentaestotais deregio*
2233 24 7 58 1
Santos51%
Outrosportos14%
100
ESTIMATIVA
Movimentaesoutros
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UTILIZAO DE CAPACIDADE NOS PRINCIPAISPORTOS CONCORRENTES
2005, % da capacidade nominal de carga/descarga
FertilizantesFertilizantes 5252
Soja
FertilizantesTrigo
Acar
Soja
FertilizantesTrigo
Acar
5656114114
6161
147147
7575
SojaSoja 6464
Soja e acar
Fertilizantes
Soja e acar
Fertilizantes
8080
SantosSantos
TubaroTubaro
VitriaVitria
ParanaguParanagu
Fonte: Fertimport, entrevistas, Consultant
Produtos com provveistenses de capacidadeProdutos com provveistenses de capacidade
ESTIMATIVA
Os valores se referem aospicos mensais de
utilizao de capacitaopara levar emconsiderao asazonalidade
No foram consideradasexpanses da capacidadeexistente
Os valores se referem aospicos mensais de
utilizao de capacitaopara levar emconsiderao asazonalidade
No foram consideradasexpanses da capacidadeexistente
NO EXAUSTIVO
PROPOSTA DE VALOR DO TERMINAL
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Qualificador
Qualificador
Infra-estrutura/equipamentosInfra-estrutura/equipamentos
Localizao geogrficaLocalizao geogrfica
AcessoAcesso
PROPOSTA DE VALOR DO TERMINAL
Diferenc
iador
Diferenc
iador
Inferior em paridade Superior
Desempenho
Integrao logstica(ferrovia, etc.)
Integrao logstica(ferrovia, etc.)
Parceria/
relacionamentosDemanda cativaTraders
Parceria/
relacionamentosDemanda cativaTraders
PreoEficincia operaoProdutividade
PreoEficincia operaoProdutividade
??
De uma maneirageral, ao terminalno possui nenhumdiferencial em suaproposta de valor
A precificaopoderia ser um dosdiferenciadores,entretanto, os portosvizinhos teriamincentivos pararetaliar (custo
marginal, flegofinanceiro)
De uma maneirageral, ao terminalno possui nenhumdiferencial em suaproposta de valor
A precificaopoderia ser um dosdiferenciadores,entretanto, os portosvizinhos teriamincentivos pararetaliar (custo
marginal, flegofinanceiro)
Fonte: Fertimport, entrevistas, Consultant
CONCEITUAL
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CASO SEPETIBA
1998
2001
* Valor de 2000Fonte: Clippings, Consultant
Objetivos do investimento
Descrio do projeto de SepetibaInvestimento de US$ 35-40 milhesCapacidade de movimentao a regime: 1.000.000
TEU'sEstimativa de volumes iniciais: 140.000 TEU's
Descrio do projeto de Sepetiba
Investimento de US$ 35-40 milhesCapacidade de movimentao a regime: 1.000.000
TEU'sEstimativa de volumes iniciais: 140.000 TEU's
Antes
Santos
Rio de Janeiro
Depois
Santos
Rio de Janeiro
Sepetiba
Preos de movimentao
US$/TEU
Santos Rio deJaneiro
Sepetiba
Volumes movimentados
milhares de TEUs
Santos Rio deJaneiro
Sepetiba
O nvel de ociosidade dos terminais decontainers passou de ~20% em 1999 para~40% em 2001Queda estimada dos preos dentre 15-25%aps a entrada
O nvel de ociosidade dos terminais decontainers passou de ~20% em 1999 para~40% em 2001Queda estimada dos preos dentre 15-25%aps a entrada
n.d.
n.d.
INVESTIMENTOS DE EXPANSO: COMPARAO
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INVESTIMENTOS DE EXPANSO: COMPARAOTERMINAL vs. TERMINAIS J EXISTENTES
* A preciso do valor do investimento a considerar de +/- 25%** Energia eltrica, gua potvel, comunicao, etc.Fonte: Assessoria de empreendimentos, Consultant
R$ milhes, base 99*
Sistemacorreiastranspor-tadoras
Armazm Projeto,gerencia-mento, eoutras
Total
21 15
5
terminal projeto "greenfield" Terminais j existentes - modernizao
26
40
Projeto egerencia-mentodaconstru-o
19
Redesde infra-estrutura geral**
Infra-estrutura civl
Armazm
Sistemacorreiastranspor-tadoras
TotalInstala-es deatracao
9
43
15
10142
11
22
65
12
Limpeza epreparaoda rea
Ferrovias erodovias
Carregador
Dolfins/drag.
23,2
EXEMPLO: T. DE SOJA
ANLISE DE SENSIBILIDADE: PROJETO
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ANLISE DE SENSIBILIDADE: PROJETOGREENFIELD DE EXPANSO DO PORTO
NPV, R$ milhes
0,70,7 1,41,4 2,12,1 2,82,8 3,53,5Estas movimentaespodem ser absorvidas porum nico pier
Milhes detoneladasmovimentadas
Captura do mercado-alvo %
Desconto vs.preos atuais
%
30
20
10
0
5 10 15 20 25
(127,7)(127,7) (104,0)(104,0) (80,3)(80,3) (56,7)(56,7) (33,0)(33,0)
(121,9)(121,9) (92,3)(92,3) (62,8)(62,8) (33,2)(33,2) (3,7)(3,7)
(116,0)(116,0) (80,6)(80,6) (45,2)(45,2) (9,7)(9,7) 25,725,7
(110,1)(110,1) (68,8)(68,8) (27,6)(27,6) 13,713,7 55,055,0
ESTIMATIVA
Considerando omontante deinvestimentos,parece ser muitodifcil viabilizar aexpanso do porto
Considerando omontante deinvestimentos,parece ser muitodifcil viabilizar aexpanso do porto