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Application of Climate Change research in CAP Planning activities
Mohammed MahmoudColorado River ProgramsCentral Arizona Project
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• Historical Information– Authorized by 1968 Basin Project Act– Substantially completed in 1993– Responsible for repaying reimbursable costs to the U.S.
• Physical Characteristics– 336 mile aqueduct– 15 pumping plants– Lake Pleasant (system storage/release)– Primarily powered through Navajo Generating Station (NGS)– Diverts remainder of Arizona’s Colorado River
Apportionment
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Colorado River Programs• Primary Questions of Concern:
– What factors influence the likelihood of shortage to CAP?– How do these factors influence the likelihood of shortage to
CAP?– What is the magnitude of likely shortage to CAP?
• Planning Issues of Importance:– Climate change– Upper Basin consumptive use– Higher priority Arizona users (Colorado On-River users)– System capacity for water deliveries– Projected growth in water use
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• 92% of the Colorado River Basin's mean annual flow occurs above Lees Ferry (1906-2007)
• Mean annual flow is close to 15.0 MAF, ranging from 5.6 MAF to 25.2 MAF
• Upper Colorado and Green River are the most important tributaries: 75% of annual flow.
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System Reservoirs
Lake Powell (Glen Canyon Dam)
Lake Mead (Hoover Dam)
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System Vulnerabilities
Upper BasinPrecipitationSnowpackStreamflowUpper Basin UsesFlow Operations
Powell/MeadSide InflowFlow OperationsStorage
ArizonaOn-River Uses
CAPDelivery Infrastructure
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CAP and Climate Change
• Winter regional-scale storm patterns drive snowpack which drives spring runoff in the Upper Colorado River Basin (90% of CAP supplies come from Upper Basin snowpack)
• Climate change is important to CAP because of our vulnerability in the Colorado River Basin
• Due to our junior priority, CAP is the most vulnerable in a vulnerable system
• Therefore it is important to explore the potential impacts of climate change to the Colorado River and to our system in order to better prepare for that possible eventuality
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To put it in perspective…
Under current water use, a reduction of 7% in Colorado River water supply in the Lower Basin (Tier 3 short) results in a reduction of 30% for water available to Central Arizona (CAP)
30% Reduction
17%Reduction
Potential Impact of Climate Change
7%Reduction
Lower Colorado River Basin Arizona Central Arizona Project
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Planning Models
• Colorado River Simulation System (CRSS)Addresses: – Climate change– Upper Basin uses– Projected growth
in water use
• Arizona On-River ModelAddresses:– Arizona higher
priority uses– Projected growth
in water use
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Colorado River Hydrology
• Observed Resampled– Future hydrologic trends and variability similar to observed record– Mean: 15 MAF (Observed record)
• Paleo Resampled– Future hydrologic trends and variability based on streamflow
reconstructions of tree ring data– Mean: 14.7 MAF (Paleo record)
• Paleo Conditioned– Future hydrologic trends and variability represented by combined
statistics of both paleo and observed records– Mean: 15 MAF
• Downscaled GCM Projected– Future hydrologic conditions based on sustained climate warming – Mean: 13.6 MAF
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Improving Predictability in the Colorado River Basin – Value of Combining Winter Synoptic Patterns with SST States(S. Rajagopal, Desert Research Institute)
WET/DRY?
Sea Surface Temp StatesAtmospheric Circulation Pattern Synoptic Storm Pattern