233© Th e Author(s) 2017K. Verico, Th e Future of the ASEAN Economic Integration, DOI 10.1057/978-1-137-59613-0
Appendix
Table P.1 Share of regional trade fl ows (% of Merchandise Export) 2006
Region North America
South and Central America Europe
Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) Africa
Middle East Asia Total
North America 53.9 6.4 16.6 0.5 1.3 2.5 18.7 100 South and
Central America 31.4 25.9 20.1 1.4 2.6 1.8 14.4 100
Europe 8.7 1.3 73.6 2.9 2.4 2.6 7.4 100 Commonwealth
of Independent States (CIS)
5.7 1.8 57.9 18.9 1.3 3.1 10.7 100
Africa 22.0 3.1 40.8 0.4 9.0 1.7 20.0 100 Middle East 11.2 0.7 15.9 0.5 3.2 11.1 52.6 100 Asia 21.6 2.1 18.4 1.5 2.1 3.4 50.0 100
Source : http://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/its2007_e/its07_world_trade_dev_e.htm , as of Table 1.5 accessed October 26, 2015
234 Appendix
Table P.2 World’s FDI infl ows (%) by host regions 1990–2014
% FDI infl ows to world 1990 (%)
1995 (%)
2000 (%)
2005 (%)
2010 (%)
2014 (%)
World 100 100 100 100 100 100 European Union 47 38 50 49 27 21 North America 27 20 28 14 17 12 Africa 1 2 1 3 3 4 East Asia 3 12 4 10 9 11 South-East Asia 6 8 2 5 8 11 India 0 1 0 1 2 3 Australia and New Zealand 5 4 1 −3 3 4 Latin America and the Caribbean 4 9 6 8 10 13 Other Countries 6 6 8 14 21 20
Source : Author’s calculation using UNCTAD, FDI/TNC database Note : European Union of 28 members, North America covers Canada and USA,
East Asia covers China, Japan, and South Korea, and Southeast Asia covers all ten ASEAN members
South-East Asia 1995 (%)
2000 (%)
2005 (%)
2010 (%)
2014 (%)
Brunei Darussalam 2 2 1 0 0 Cambodia 1 1 1 1 1 Indonesia 15 −20 19 13 17 Lao PDR 0 0 0 0 1 Malaysia 20 17 9 9 8 Myanmar 1 0 0 6 1 Philippines 5 10 4 1 5 Singapore 42 69 42 52 51 Thailand 7 15 19 9 9 Vietnam 6 6 5 8 7
Source : Author’s calculation using UNCTAD, FDI/TNC database
Table P.3 FDI infl ows in ASEAN by host countries (%)
Appendix 235
Table P.4 FDI infl ows to ASEAN countries by host country (%) 2014
Country
Share to total, 2014 Share to total net infl ow, 2014
Intra- ASEAN
Extra- ASEAN
Total net infl ow
Intra- ASEAN
Extra- ASEAN
Total net infl ow
Brunei 0.6 0.4 0.4 24.9 75.1 100 Cambodia 1.5 1.2 1.3 21.6 78.4 100 Indonesia 55.2 7.9 16.4 60.4 39.6 100 Lao PDR 0.6 0.7 0.7 15.1 84.9 100 Malaysia 11.4 7.1 7.9 25.9 74.1 100 Myanmar 2.8 0.2 0.7 72.2 27.8 100 Philippines 0.3 5.5 4.6 1.3 98.7 100 Singapore 18.6 60.4 52.9 6.3 93.7 100 Thailand 2.7 9.7 8.5 5.7 94.3 100 Vietnam 6.3 6.8 6.8 16.8 83.2 100 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 17.9 82.1 100 ASEAN 6 1 88.8 91.0 90.6 17.5 82.5 100 CLMV 2 11.2 9.0 9.4 21.4 78.6 100
Source : ASEAN Foreign Direct Investment Statistics Database as of May 26, 2015 on http://www.asean.org/news/item/foreign-direct-investment-statistics
1 ASEAN 6 by alphabetical order are Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Singapore
2 ASEAN 4 by alphabetical order are Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar, Vietnam
236 Appendix
Table 2.1 Selected variables, hypothesis, and sources of data model of AFTA analysis
Independent variable
Expected sign Source of data
Aggregate FDI Infl ows for testing the impact of AFTA on Investment Creation
1. Value of GDP (GDP)
+ 1. ADB Statistic
2. Value of Consumption (CONS)
+ 2. ADB Statistic
+ 3. ADB Statistic (ADB Statistic &
The World Bank – GDF)
3. Percentage of Economic Growth (GR)
+ 4. ADB Statistic Intra-Regional
Trade (IRT) for testing the impact of AFTA on trade creation
4. Number of Population (POP)
+ 5. ADB Statistic
5. Number of Employed Worker (EMPL)
ARIC, the ADB, for calculation IMTP & country level (adapted from Verico, 2007)
+ 6. The World Bank (World Development Indicator/WDI)
6. Government Expenditure on Education (EDU)
+ 7. The WB (WDI)
+ 8. WTO Statistic 7. Electricity
Consumption (ELECONS)
+ 9. ADB Statistic
− 10. ADB Statistic and IMF (Country Economic Outlook)
Appendix 237
Independent variable
Expected sign Source of data
8. Degree of Openness (DOO)
+ 11. The World Bank (Global Development Finance: Profi t Remittance on FDI in US$)
9. Real Wage (RW)
10. Exchange Rate (ER)
11. FDI Profi t (FDIPROFIT)
+ 12. Own calculation based on ARIC, the ADB Dataset and WTO Statistic
+ 13. Year of signature (1992)
12. Intra-Regional Trade
+ 14. Year of fi rst signature BFTA (Malaysia:2004; Thailand:2005 & Indonesia:2006)
13. Dummy AFTA 14. Dummy BFTA
Source : Author’s Hypotheses
Table 2.1 (continued)
238 Appendix
Table 3.1 BFTAs of fi ve ASEAN founding members and ASEAN+3 members 2010
Country BFTA
China Mexico (1999), ASEAN (2003), Australia, Costa Rica, Peru (2010), Singapore (2009), Pakistan (2007), India (2007), Hong Kong (2004), Macao (2004), Chile (2006), New Zealand (2008)
Japan ASEAN (2008), Indonesia (2008), Philippines (2008), Malaysia (2006), Thailand (2007), Singapore (2006), Vietnam (2009), Brunei (2008), Mexico (2005), Chile (2007), Switzerland (2009)
South Korea ASEAN, Singapore (2006), India, EFTA (2006), Chile (2004), Peru, USA
Singapore China, Japan (2002), South Korea (2006), India (2005), Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Australia (2003), EFTA (2003) Chile, Jordan (2006), Bahrain, Egypt, Kuwait, UAE, Qatar, New Zealand (2001), Australia (2003), Panama(2006), Peru (2009), USA (2004)
Malaysia Japan (2006), Pakistan (2008) Thailand Japan (2007), Australia (2005), India, Peru, New Zealand (2005),
Singapore, Laos (1991) Philippines Japan (2006) Indonesia Japan (2008)
Source : Author’s identifi cation based on http://www.worldtradelaw.net/fta/ftadatabase/ftas.asp , http://rtais.wto.org/UI/PublicAllRTAList.aspx
Table 3.2 Selected variables, hypothesis, and sources of data model of BFTA analysis
Dependent variable Independent variable
Expected sign Source of data
FDI Infl ows at country level for testing BFTA impact on Investment Creation in own country
1. Value of GDP (GDP)
+ 1. ADB Statistic
2. Value of Consumption (CONS)
+ 2. ADB Statistic
3. Percentage of Economic Growth (GR)
+ 3. ADB Statistic
4. Number of Population (POP)
+ 4. ADB Statistic
(ADB Statistic & The World Bank – GDF)
5. Number of Employed Worker (EMPL)
+ 5. ADB Statistic
Appendix 239
Dependent variable Independent variable
Expected sign Source of data
6. Government Expenditure on Education (EDU)
+ 6. The World Bank (World Development Indicator/WDI)
7. Electricity Consumption (ELECONS)
+ 7. The WB (WDI)
8. Degree of Openness (DOO)
+ 8. WTO Statistic
9. Real Wage (RW) + 9. ADB Statistic 10. Exchange Rate
(ER) - 10. ADB Statistic and
IMF (Country Economic Outlook)
11. FDI Profi t (FDIPROFIT)
+ 11. The World Bank (Global Development Finance/GDF)
12. Intra-Regional Trade (IRT) at country level
+ 12. Verico, 2007
13. Dummy BFTA + 13. Year of fi rst BFTA’s signature (Malaysia: 2004; Thailand: 2005, Indonesia: 2006)
14. Dummy AFTA + 14. Comprehensive implementation of AFTA is in 1999 (Nesadurai 2003)
Source : Author’s hypotheses
Table 3.2 (continued)
240 Appendix
Tab
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Appendix 241
Table 4.1 Selected variables, hypothesis, and sources of data model of ITRO analysis
Dependent variable Independent variable
Expected sign Source of data
FDI Infl ows in Rubber 1. Percentage of Economic Growth (GR)
+ 1. ADB Statistic
2. Exchange Rate (ER)
- 2. ADB Statistic and IMF (Country Economic Outlook)
(Adopted from The Ministry of Trade Republic of Indonesia, 2010, collected Approved FDI Infl ows in rubber from each country investment board)
3. Electricity Consumption (ELECONS)
+ 3. World Bank (World Development Indicator/WDI)
4. Degree of Openness (DOO)
+ 4. WTO Statistic
5. Price of Natural Rubber (PRUB)
+ 5. FAO Statistical Data
6. Production Volume of Natural Rubber (PRODRUB)
- 6. FAO Statistical Data
7. Dummy ITRO + 7. Year of ITRO’s establishment (2001)
Source : Author’s hypotheses
242 Appendix
Table 4.2 Market proportion founding members of ITRO (Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand/IMT) and the rest of exporters (Non-IMT) in tonnes 1988–2008
Year IMT Non-IMT Total %IMT %Non-IMT
1988 297,641 128,819 426,460 70 30 1989 406,176 150,425 556,601 73 27 1990 302,713 153,717 456,430 66 34 1991 270,229 44,715 314,944 86 14 1992 310,533 65,074 375,607 83 17 1993 260,255 55,948 316,203 82 18 1994 306,807 53,781 360,588 85 15 1995 195,501 73,333 268,834 73 27 1996 237,837 85,880 323,717 73 27 1997 349,224 93,128 442,352 79 21 1998 361,915 89,794 451,709 80 20 1999 13,286 428,645 441,931 3 97 2000 348,309 90,509 438,818 79 21 2001 15,064 488,067 503,131 3 97 2002 501,257 85,085 586,342 85 15 2003 525,500 92,572 618,072 85 15 2004 31,992 665,040 697,032 5 95 2005 938,489 110,794 1,049,283 89 11 2006 25,310 967,306 992,616 3 97 2007 1,014,300 115,279 1,129,579 90 10 2008 951,858 168,932 1,120,790 85 15
Source : Author’s calculation based on FAO statistic data
Product description – IO 2005 Rubber Top rank
Code 12 Backward Linkages (BL) 0.89 BL Rank 125 75% Forward Linkages (FL) 1.49 FL Rank 16 10% Wage and Salary 0.57 W&S Rank 7 5% Profi t 0.53 Profi t Rank 50 30% Indirect Tax (IT) 0.03 IT Rank 56 35% Export to Final Demand 0.00005 Export Rank 123 71%
Source : Author’s calculation with Indonesia Input–Output table
Table 4.3 Rubber impact on Indonesia economy input output table analysis 2005
Appendix 243
Table 6.1 Stationarity test on pair infl ation rate (CPI) of ASEAN-5 founding mem-bers and East Asian countries (China, Japan, and Korea) 1988–2008
Country ADF statistic
test
Rejected unit root hypothesis (Stationarity test) 1% critical value- Lag 1
Probability on t-stat
Indonesia −4.78 1st difference 0.38 Malaysia −4.13 1st difference 0.07 Philippines −5.03 1st difference 0.09 Singapore −4.94 2nd difference 0.001 Thailand −5.62 2nd difference 0.24 China −4.10 1st difference 0.001 Japan −4.64 2nd difference 0.0002 Korea −5.17 1st difference 0.04
Source : Author’s calculation using ADB Data
Table 6.2 Error correction mechanism pair infl ation rate (CPI) of ASEAN-5 found-ing members and East Asian countries (China, Japan, and Korea) 1988–2008
ECM China Japan Indonesia Malaysia Philippines ThailandSingaporeKorea
Korea
ThailandStationarity Test & One Way DirectionSignificant & StableInsignificant & Stable
Insignificant t-stat:0.19
Stability:0.3
Significant** t-stat:0.03
Stability:0.4
Significant** t-stat:0.05
Stability:0.4
Significant** t-stat:0.06
Stability:0.4
Significant** t-stat:0.05
Stability:0.5
Significant* t-stat:0.07
Stability:0.4
Significant** t-stat:0.05
Stability:0.4
Insignificant t-stat:0.28
Stability:0.56
Insignificant t-stat:0.42
Stability:-0.19
Insignificant t-stat:0.47
Stability:-0.16
Insignificant t-stat:0.97
Stability:-0.01
Insignificant t-stat:0.94
Stability:0.01
Insignificant t-stat:0.29
Stability:0.3
Insignificant t-stat:0.75
Stability:0.09
Insignificant t-stat:0.82
Stability:0.06
Insignificant t-stat:0.79
Stability:0.06
Insignificant t-stat:0.69
Stability:0.15
Insignificant t-stat:0.76
Stability:-0.07
Insignificant t-stat:0.12
Stability:-0.4
Insignificant t-stat:0.7
Stability:-0.1
Insignificant t-stat:0.19
Stability:-0.3
Insignificant t-stat:0.85
Stability:-0.04
Insignificant t-stat:0.76
Stability:0.08
Insignificant t-stat:0.8
Stability:-0.07
Insignificant t-stat:0.4
Stability:0.2
Insignificant t-stat:0.36
Stability:0.25
Insignificant t-stat:0.89
Stability:0.03
Insignificant t-stat:0.8
Stability:0.06
Singapore
Philippines
Malaysia
Indonesia
Japan
China
Source : Author’s calculation using ADB Data
244 Appendix
Table 6.3 Cointegration test on infl ation rate (CPI) of ASEAN-5 founding mem-bers and East Asian countries (China, Japan, and Korea) 1988–2008
JohansenCointegrationTest
Indonesia Malaysia Singapore Philippines China JapanKoreaThailand
IndonesiaMalaysia
SingaporePhilippinesChina
JapanKorea
Thailand
not cointegratingCointegrating
Source : Author’s calculation using ADB Data
Table 6.4 Exchange rate and infl ation rate difference Yuan China and all observed countries 1988–2008
a b1 b2 (P-P*)=(b1-b2)
Yuan/Rp −6.79 0.34 −0.05 0.40 Yuan/RM 0.74 0.00 0.06 −0.06 Yuan/Baht −1.71 0.02 0.12 −0.10 Yuan/Peso −1.68 0.12 −0.06 0.19 Yuan/Sing$ 1.56 −0.08 −0.06 0.02 Yuan/Won −4.69 0.06 −0.19 0.24 Yuan/Yen −2.82 0.07 0.25 0.18 Yuan/Peso 0.76 0.11 0.29 −0.19
Appendix 245
Nominal ER P-P* Potential trade relation
Yuan/Rp 0.4 Substitution Yuan/RM −0.06 Complementary Yuan/Baht −0.1 Complementary Yuan/Peso 0.19 Substitution Yuan/Sing$ −0.02 Complementary Yuan/Won 0.24 Substitution Yuan/Yen 0.18 Complementary Yen/Peso −0.19 Complementary
Source : Author’s calculation using ADB Data
Table 6.5 Relationship characters on exchange rate and infl ation rate difference to trade relations 1988–2008
55,150
41,344
10,760
5,370 3,630 3,470 1,890 1,650 1,270 1,020 -
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
Singapore Brunei Malaysia Thailand Indonesia Philippines Vietnam Laos Myanmar Cambodia
GNI per Capita (US$ Current), 2014
Fig. P.1 GNI per capita per year (Current US$) of ASEAN countries 2014 ( Source : Author’s illustration using the data of http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GNP.PCAP.CD )
246 Appendix
1% 0.5%
5%
11%
41%
16% 15%
1%
9%
2%
12%
1%
13%15%
36%
11%8%
0.5%3%
1%0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
% Popula�on, % GDP, 2014
%Pop %GDP
Fig. P.2 Share to ASEAN’s GDP & population (%) ASEAN member states 2014 ( Source: Author’s calculation and illustration using the data from http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GNP.PCAP.CD )
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Intra Regional Trade (%)
Intra Regional Trade Indonesia Intra Regional Trade Malaysia
Intra Regional Trade Thailand Intra Regional Trade Philippines
Fig. P.3 Patterns of intra-regional trade of observed ASEAN members, 1988–2014 ( Source: Author’s calculation and illustration using Global Development Finance (GDF) data of the World Bank. Formula of calculation is adopted from Verico (2007). Calculated data from 2008 to 2014 is estimated data based on the formula)
Appendix 247
- 10 000.0
- 5 000.0
-
5 000.0
10 000.0
15 000.0
20 000.0
25 000.0
FDI Inflows (Million US$)
Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand
Fig. P.4 Patterns of FDI infl ows of observed ASEAN members, 1988–2014 ( Source: Author’s illustration using UNCTAD, FDI/TNC database)
Developing Country(Member B)
BFTA vs AFTA
Developed Country
(Member A) 30/2010/15AFTA
60/540/10Direct Bilateral
AFTADirect Bilateral
Fig. 1.1 Prisoner’s dilemma of developed and developing country of ASEAN members ( Sources: Author’s illustration using prisoner’s dilemma principle)
248 Appendix
Fig. 1.2 Open regionalism in ASEAN in comparison to close regionalism in EU ( Sources: Author’s illustration)
78%
68%
79%
72%
80%
78%
60%
62%
64%
66%
68%
70%
72%
74%
76%
78%
80%
82%
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 20062007
ITRO ITRO P ITRO P V
ITRO + Philippines &
ITRO + Philippines
ITRO
Fig. 4.1 Share of ITRO to world natural rubber production volume (%) 1988–2008 ( Sources: Author’s calculation using FAO Statistic Database)
Philippines
Country Levels of World Natural Rubber’s Main Producers1988-2008
3500000
3000000
2500000
2000000
1500000
1000000
500000
01988
Bolivia Brazil Cambodia Cameroon China
Ghana
Liberia
Papua New Guinea
Gabon
Indonesia
Nigeria
Viet Nam
Ecuador
India
Myanmar
Thailand
Cote d’ivoire
Guinea
Mexico
Sri Lanka
Guatemala
Malaysia
Philippines
Congo, DemocraticRepublic of
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Thailand
Indonesia
Malaysia
Vietnam
Fig. 4.2 Country levels of world natural rubber’s main producers 1988–2008 ( Sources: Author’s calculation using FAO Statistic Database)
-200000
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
0 200000 400000 600000 8000001000000 1200000
IMT
NO
NIM
T
NONIMT vs. IMT
-500000
0
500000
1000000
1500000
0 200000 400000 600000 800000 1000000
NONIMT
IMT
IMT vs. NONIMT
Fig. 4.3 Trade relation between IMT and rest of the world (Non-IMT) 1988–2008 ( Source: Author’s illustration using FAO statistic data)
Appendix 249
250 Appendix
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Total (World) CNE Line
Year of ITRO’s
establishment
565,818 tonnes/year: Q1,2t*
Competitive > Q1,2t* > Collusive
CollusiveCompetitive
Fig. 4.4 Total quantity of trade between IMT and Non-IMT compared to its Cournot-Nash equilibrium line 1988–2008 ( Source: Author’s illustration using FAO statistic data)
Fig. 4.5 Rubber impact on Indonesia economy Input Output table analysis (value) 2000 and 2005 ( Source: Author’s calculation using Indonesia’s I-O table 2000 & 2005)
Appendix 251
Fig. 4.6 Indonesia’s rubber market orientation 1988–2008 ( Source: Author’s illustration using FAO statistic data)
Fig. 4.7 Illustration for the connection between CNE (microeconomic analysis) and Indonesia’s I-O analysis (2000 and 2005) ( Sources: Author’s illustration)
252 Appendix
Model 2.1 Indirect impact of intra-regional trade (trade creation) on FDI infl ows (investment creation) and direct impact of AFTA on FDI infl ows
Dependent variable: FDI infl ows
Direct impact of AFTA on Intra regional trade (LOG)
Indirect impact of AFTA on FDI infl ows (LIN)
Direct impact of AFTA on FDI infl ows (LIN)
Fixed effect R-squared 0.32 0.47 0.33 F-statistic 8.98 7.99 9.56 Log GDP −1.36*** 10,951*** 4,747*** Log RW 2.92*** −9,455*** Dropped Log ER 2.25*** −5,381** Dropped Log Pop Dropped −22,281*** −26,883*** Log EMPL Dropped −18,408** Dropped DOO Dropped 9,214*** 7,014*** AFTA 0.002 Irrelevance −112 BFTA Dropped 1,037 Dropped Log intra- trade Irrelevance 387 Dropped
Source : Author calculation, ***signifi cance at 1%, **signifi cance at 5%, and *signifi cance at 10%
Model 2.2 The impact of intra-regional trade and FDI infl ows in system equation models of Seemingly Unrelated Regression Estimator (SURE) and Simultaneous Equation Model Estimator (SEME/3 SLS)
Statistical indicator and independent variables
Seemingly Unrelated Regressions Estimator (SURE)
Simultaneous Equation Model Estimator (SEME/3 SLS)
FDI infl ows Intra-regional trade
FDI infl ows Intra-regional trade
Dependent variable (LIN)
Dependent variable (LOG)
Dependent variable LIN)
Dependent variable (LOG)
CHI2 29.23 77.84 26 75.36 Probability 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Log GDP Dropped 4.89*** Dropped 4.98*** Log Cons 10,430** Dropped 15,740** Dropped Log Pop −15,469*** Dropped 16,878** Dropped Log employ 4,160*** −4.85*** Dropped −5.04*** Log GNP/Cap −8,935** −5.18*** −13,391** −5.23*** Log electricity Dropped 1.3*** Dropped 1.24*** DOO Dropped −1.44*** Dropped −1.61*** AFTA1 Dropped 0.14 Dropped 0.26 Log intra-trade −756* Dropped −2,368*** Irrelevance FDI infl ows Irrelevance Irrelevance Irrelevance 0.000037
Source : Author calculation, ***signifi cance at 1%, **signifi cance at 5%, and *signifi cance at 10%
Appendix 253
Model 3.1 AFTA, BFTA, and macroeconomic factors on FDI infl ows at country level
Dependent variable: FDI infl ows country level Indonesia Malaysia Thailand Philippines
R-squared 0.81 0.92 0.92 0.19 D-W 2.24 1.49 2.2 2.8 F-stat 4.8 17.8 14.76 0.31 Constant Coeffi cient 16,245 −10,149 12,634 −873 t-stat 0.48 −0.6 4 −0.21 Probability 0.64 0.56 0.0023 0.84 Consumption 2.19E-08 −4.94E-
07 *** −2.69E-09 1.40E-09
0.38 −4.6 −0.04 0.05 0.71 0.0007 0.97 0.96
Elecons 36.28 3.54 7.65 *** −2.16 Lag (−1) 1.5 0.9 2.97 −0.37
0.16 0.4 0.01 0.72 RW 4.8
0.67 0.53
4.11 *** 3.21 0.008
−1.73 −0.95 0.36
0.73 0.4 0.7
BFTA −5,035 ** −2.17 0.05
3,168 ** 2.22 0.048
2,594 1.15 0.28
846 0.44 0.67
AFTA 281 0.27 0.79
−6.07 −0.44 0.67
−188 −0.29 0.77
−363 −0.29 0.77
ER Lag(−1) Lag(−2) Lag(−1) −0.52 −951 −175.4 ** −12.6 −1.47 −0.23 −2.54 −0.13 0.17 0.81 0.029 0.9
FDIProfi t 2.07 0.98 0.34
2.02.E07 0.6 0.56
1.54E-08 −0.02 0.98
−1.34E-06 −1.27 0.23
Intra Regional Trade −10,930 −0.37 0.72
−3.145 −0.11 0.91
−57,145 −1.63 0.13
32,225 1.1 0.29
Source : Author calculation, ***signifi cance at 1%, **signifi cance at 5%, and *signifi cance at 10%
254 Appendix
Model 3.2 Reduced form estimation on BFTA and macroeconomic factors on FDI infl ows at country level
Dependent variable : FDI infl ows country level Indonesia Malaysia Thailand Philippines
R-squared 0.74 0.92 0.94 0.3 D-W 1.7 1.69 1.87 2. 7 F-stat 10.8 45.69 41.34 Constant Coeffi cient −12,246 *** −13,359 *** 14,419 *** Dropped t-stat −3.8 −4.68 6.19 Consumption Dropped −4.74E-
07 *** −7.6
−6.14E- 08 ***
−5.03
Dropped
Elecons 26.29 *** 2.83 *** 7.77 *** Dropped Lag (−1) 3.98 3.87 8.63 RW 7.49 *** 4.18 *** Dropped Dropped
4.33 7.86 BFTA −3,558 ** 3,187 *** Dropped 2,254
−2 2.94 1.19 AFTA Dropped Dropped Dropped Dropped ER Lag(−1)
−0.41 ** −2.12
Dropped Lag(−2) −189 *** −5.12
Dropped
FDIProfi t Dropped Dropped 1.82E-06 *** 6.75
Dropped
Intra Regional Trade
Dropped Dropped −87,585 *** −4.18
48,520*** 3.46
POP*** −81 GNP Cap** 17.8 GDP** −2.35E-07
Source : Author calculation, ***signifi cance at 1%, **signifi cance at 5%, and *signifi cance at 10%
Appendix 255
Model 4.1 Panel data (PLS) of the impact of ITRO on FDI infl ows in natural rubber: sub-regional economic agreement, case of IMT’s natural rubber (ITRO)
Dependent variable: FDI infl ows in rubber
Pooled least square
Pooled EGLS cross section (SUR) Fixed effect
Pooled EGLS cross section Random effect
R-squared 0.87 0.92 0.80 Durbin-Watson 0.76 1.6 0.98 F-statistic 72 89 44.3 Constant Coeffi cient −72.07 *** −64.9 *** −73.81 *** t-stat −5.15 −6.59 −3.93 Elecons 0.023 *** 0.04 *** 0.04 ***
5.13 11.29 6.77 ER −0.002 ** −0.003 *** −0.002 ** Lag (−1) −1.8 −4.48 −1.85 PRODRUB 7.69E-05 *** 6.14E-05 *** 6.57E-05 ***
15.16 10 12.46 PRUB −0.01 ** −0.01 *** −0.01 **
−2.49 −3.91 −2.46 ITRO −17 * −12.1 ** −21.2 **
−1.86 −2.39 −2.47 Fixed effect Indonesia :22.3
Malaysia :−32 Thailand :9.7
Random effect Indonesia : 20 Malaysia : −28.5 Thailand : 8.5
Source : Author calculation, ***signifi cance at 1%, **signifi cance at 5%, and *signifi cance at 10%
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Source of Data
http://ditjenkpi.depdag.go.id/website_kpi/fi les/content/4/ http://laborsta.ilo.org/2009 http://www.adb.org/Documents/Studys/Key_Indicators/2009/xls/INO.xls http://www.aseansec.org/ http://www.bkpm.go.id/ http://www.bps.go.id/ http://www.duke.edu/~charvey/Classes/wpg/bfglosf.htm#foreign_direct_investment http://www.faostat.fao.org http://www.imf.org/external/data.htm http://www.madehow.com/Volume-3/Latex.html http://www.unctad.org/infocomm/anglais/rubber/ecopolicies.html http://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/statis_e.htm#statisticdata http://ddp-ext.worldbank.org/ext/2009 (WDI and GDF)
269© Th e Author(s) 2017K. Verico, Th e Future of the ASEAN Economic Integration, DOI 10.1057/978-1-137-59613-0
A Akamatsu, K. , ix, 45, 98, 189 Alaouze, C. M. , 155 Aoki, T. , 46, 191 ASEAN
ASEAN umbrella , viii, 113, 124, 125, 135, 204, 205, 225, 230, 231
ASEAN+3 (ASEAN plus China, Japan and Korea) , xii
ASEAN Bond Markets Initiative , 80, 84
ASEAN China FTA , 43, 193, 195
ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) , vii, 2, 6–7, 15, 18, 21, 22, 42, 44, 45, 54, 69, 78, 84, 101, 137, 148, 182n6, 185–202, 202n3, 214, 229
ASEAN Framework Agreement on Services , 20, 69, 82, 102, 194, 206
ASEAN Free Trade Area , vii, ix, 4, 7, 12, 20, 21, 52, 58, 93, 145, 185, 189, 206
ASEAN Minus X , 69 ASEAN-noodle-bowl phenomenon ,
27 ASEAN Plus framework , 45, 206 ASEAN-Plus One , 16, 193 ASEAN-Plus Th ree (APT) , 16, 187,
216, 217 ASEAN Surveillance Process , 79, 84,
199 ASEAN Way , 55, 56, 80, 122, 231 Asian noodle-bowl phenomenon , 6 Asia Pacifi c Economic Cooperation ,
19, 81, 205, 231 Association of Southeast Asian
Nations (ASEAN) , vii, 185
Index
270 Index
B Balassa, B. , vii, 51, 62, 63, 153 Balasubramanyam, V. N. , 49 Balboa, J. , 54, 60, 61 Baldwin, R. E. , 57, 120, 123,
143n17, 189 Bali Concord II , 71 Baltagi, B. H. , 26, 47, 186 band wagon eff ect , 31 Barrell, R. , 37 Berg, D. M. , 28, 98 Bhagwati, J. , 26, 51, 61, 105, 106,
114, 120, 138 Bilateral Free Trade Agreement
(BFTA) , 7, 21, 59, 107, 113, 115, 116, 128, 203, 223
Bilateral Free Trade Agreements , 1, 128 Blanchard, O. , 86, 87 Blomström, M. , 26, 48 Bowles, P. , viii, x, 25, 53–5, 72, 94,
185 Buckley, P. J. , 34 building block , 9, 138, 145, 201, 228
C Carriere, C. , 60 Cheong, D. , xvii, 26, 42, 43,
103 Chey, H-kyu , 15, 197 Chiang Mai Initiative , 18, 77, 80,
84, 197, 199, 207, 232n3 Cobb-Douglas production
function , 30 Common Eff ective Preferential
Tariff , xix, 4, 17, 20, 54, 131, 187, 206
Common Market , vii, 53, 63, 71, 73, 78, 154, 232n3
convergent , 193, 201, 228 Cordenillo, R. L. , 43 Country of Origin , 59, 61, 89 Custom Union , vii, 18, 43, 45, 53,
61, 63, 65, 71, 72, 78, 91, 102, 113, 120, 121, 154, 190, 196, 201, 221n6, 228, 230, 232n3
custom union , 15, 30, 44, 45, 83, 91, 109n5, 137, 190, 197
D Daitoh, I. , 47 Daquila, T. C. , 59 de Melo, J. , 60 Dieter, H. , 51 discriminatory trade , 16, 19, 26, 53,
95, 186, 206 Donnenfeld, S. , 48 dummy variable , 11, 29, 128, 130,
131, 133, 134, 159, 166, 169, 170, 174, 179, 227
Dunning, J. H. , 46, 186
E economic community , ix, x, xvi, 2, 6,
8, 15, 21, 22, 26, 43, 46, 55, 70, 78, 83, 108, 146, 186, 189, 196, 200, 201, 224, 228
economic integration , vii–xi, xiv, xv, 2, 5–8, 15, 16, 18, 20–2, 26, 31, 33, 42, 44, 49–51,
Index 271
53, 55, 56, 59, 63–6, 68, 70–5, 78, 79, 83, 91, 92, 101, 102, 104, 105, 114, 135, 136, 138, 140, 146, 148, 151, 153, 155, 166, 172, 185, 186, 188, 189, 193, 195–9, 201, 205–8, 211, 212, 214, 216–18, 221n5, 221n8, 226, 228, 229, 231
Ethnic Chinese Business Network , x, 46, 191
Edward, J. R. , 30, 109n5 Egger, P. , 26, 47, 186 European Coal and Steel Community ,
74, 147, 148, 154 European Coal and Steel
Cooperation , 146 European Economic Community ,
75, 78, 83 European Single Market , 75 Exchange rates , 140, 169, 209
F fi nancial integration , vii, viii, x, 2,
6, 8, 16, 20–2, 23n1, 24n9, 44, 51, 55–7, 63, 64, 70, 71, 75, 78–81, 83, 84, 92, 110n14, 187, 197–9, 201, 201n2, 206, 208, 212, 215–17, 219, 220n3, 228, 229, 231, 232n3
fi rst-mover , 31, 117, 118 fi rst mover advantage , 35, 127,
225
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) , vii, 1, 3, 5, 7, 52, 54, 73, 84, 95, 144n22, 203
Foster, M. J. , 32, 109n5 Frankel, J. , 64, 90, 91, 110n16 free fl ows of capital , 42, 44, 69, 71,
73, 79, 148 free fl ows of people , 6, 44, 151, 215,
218, 231
G global fi nancial crisis , 76, 78 Globerman, S. , 26, 48 Goh Chok Tong , 120, 150 Greenway, D. , 61 Griffi ths, D. , 49 Guisinger, S. E. , 28, 29, 98
H Hayakawa, K. , 30, 60, 61, 89, 140 Hejazi, W. , 41 Helpman, E. , 40, 50, 52, 98, 101,
106, 134, 186, 217 Higgott, R. , 51 hollowing-out , xv, 29, 34 hub-spoke , 58, 127 Huhne, C. , 123, 204 Huy, L. H. , 59
I intergovernmentalism , 74, 80, 114, 122 International Tripartite Rubber
Organization (ITRO) , 145–84, 226
272 Index
intra-regional trade , vii, x, xi, xiv, xvii, xviii, 4–9, 15, 18, 21, 25–30, 34, 43, 45–51, 53, 55, 57, 63, 64, 72, 76, 83, 86, 90–107, 111n22, 125, 131–3, 138, 140, 146–7, 185, 186, 189, 190, 193, 216, 218, 219, 223–5, 228
investment creation , ix, xiv, 4–8, 16, 17, 21, 24n5, 26–8, 30, 33, 36, 42, 45, 46, 48, 49, 64, 73, 85, 90, 91, 95, 98–102, 104, 106–8, 115, 128, 131, 134, 136, 138, 140, 147, 159, 166, 186, 190, 196, 216, 219, 223–6, 228
Ito, K. , 31
J Jang, Y. J. , 116
K Kawamura, A. , 47 Kelly, P. F. , 30 Kemp, M. C. , 106 Kindleberger, C. P. , 49, 101, 103 Kobrin, S. J. , 38 Kojima, K. , ix, 46, 190 Kokko, A. , 26, 48 Krugman, P. , 40, 50, 52, 98, 134, 217
L Lamy, P. , 25, 108n1, 119, 127,
143n15, 143n16 Lawrence, R. , 65, 66, 142n7
Lee, H-H. , 30 Lin, P. , 34
M MacDermott, R. , 26, 48, 186 MacLean, B. , viii, x, 25, 53–5, 72,
94, 185 Manger, M. , 4, 117, 118 Markusen, J. R. , 51 Markusen, R. , 50 Maskus, E. , 50 Medalla, E. M. , 54, 60, 61 Menon, J. , 116, 117, 140, 185, 186 Most Favored Nation , 68 Motta, M. , 26, 33 Musyawarah and Mufakat , 122
N Nesadurai, H. E. S. , 4, 17, 22, 55–7,
93, 140 non-tariff barriers , 29, 33, 35, 57 Norman, G. , 26, 33 Normann, H. T. , 157
O Oechssler, J. , 157 open and soft regionalism , 113, 146,
221n6, 231 Optimum Currency Area , 64, 195,
199, 207, 231
P Pain, N. , 37 Panagariya, A. , 4, 26, 61, 105, 138
Index 273
Park, I. , 47 Park, S. , 47 Pauly, P. , 41 Pelkmans, J. , 60, 64 Peng, D. , x, 44–6, 191 Pfaff ermayr, M. , 26, 47, 186 Phelan, S. E. , 28, 98 Pitsuwan, S. , 137 Plummer, M. , 26, 42, 43 Plummer, M. G. , xvii, 103 Polak, J. J. , 66, 67 Poon, J. P. H. , 30 preferential tariff arrangement , 27 prisoner’s dilemma , 9, 12, 13,
59, 124, 126, 138, 156, 204 Pugel, T. A. , 29, 38, 39, 109n5
R Ravenhill, J. , 4, 25, 27, 55, 72,
94, 109n13, 125, 140, 185 regionalism , 24n7, 27, 110n18,
111n19, 220n1 Regional Production Networks , ix,
43–5, 189, 190 regional trade agreements , 4, 25, 48,
49, 121, 186 Regulatory Impact Assessment , 115 Ricci, L. A. , 196 Rob, R. , 36 Rose, E. L. , 31 Rules of Origin , 56
S Safarian, A. E. , 41 Saggi, K. , 34
Salvatore, D. , 5, 16, 23n3, 53, 87, 109n4, 143n18
Sapsford, D. , 49 Schott, J. , 18, 24n6, 65 Sethi, D. , 28 snowballing eff ect , 113, 118, 123,
127, 225 Southeast Asia , vii–x, xiv–xvi, xviii,
xix, 2, 4, 5, 20, 21, 24n5, 26, 27, 32, 33, 43–6, 55, 57, 58, 61, 62, 69, 77–9, 81–3, 89, 90, 93, 95, 98, 99, 102–4, 107, 109n11, 110n16, 122, 130, 131, 135, 136, 138, 139, 144n22, 145–8, 152, 153, 166, 167, 171, 179, 181, 186, 189–91, 196–9, 203, 206, 223, 226
spaghetti-bowl , 27, 138 spillover eff ect , 39–41 Sproul, A. , 67 Steff en, H. , 157 stumbling block , 9, 128,
138, 145 sub-regional integration , 146,
193 supranational , 51, 73, 74,
114, 122
T tariff discrimination , 17, 28 Th ompson, E. R. , 30 Th orbecke, E. , 146, 153
274 Index
trade creation , xviii, 4, 6–9, 15, 16, 19, 21, 24n7, 26–8, 33, 48, 50, 58, 64, 73, 90–2, 95, 100–6, 108, 109n8, 111n19, 121, 131, 136–8, 203, 205, 220n1, 223, 224, 230
Treaty of Amity and Cooperation , 53, 75
U Urata, S. , ix, 24n7, 46, 61, 89, 102,
103, 110n18, 127, 191, 205, 220n1
V Verico, K. , xv, xvi, xviii, xix, 90, 92,
110n16, 111n22, 131, 138,
144n22, 146, 179, 181, 187, 192, 199, 201, 201n1, 226, 228, 232n2
Vettas, N. , 36 Viner, J. , vii, 61, 63, 64, 186
W Walz, U. , 40 Wang, H. , ix, 46, 191 Wan, H. , 106
Y Yang Razali Kassim , 20, 82, 142n11,
206 Yoshimatsu, H. , 62, 103