![Page 1: APERC Workshop at EWG47, Kunming, China 19 May 2014 2. Toward APEC Energy Demand & Supply Outlook 6 th Edition Brantley Liddle Vice President, APERC](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649dd05503460f94ac50bb/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
APERC Workshop at EWG47, Kunming, China19 May 2014
2. Toward APEC Energy Demand & Supply Outlook 6th Edition
Brantley LiddleVice President, APERC
![Page 2: APERC Workshop at EWG47, Kunming, China 19 May 2014 2. Toward APEC Energy Demand & Supply Outlook 6 th Edition Brantley Liddle Vice President, APERC](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649dd05503460f94ac50bb/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
2
The APEC Energy Outlook
• The 5th Edition was published February 2013
• The 6th Edition is being developed
• Anticipated publication in late 2015
![Page 3: APERC Workshop at EWG47, Kunming, China 19 May 2014 2. Toward APEC Energy Demand & Supply Outlook 6 th Edition Brantley Liddle Vice President, APERC](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649dd05503460f94ac50bb/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
• A 28 year look ahead (2012-2040) assuming business-as-usual and several alternative cases
• Project energy supply by fuel and demand by sector, electricity generation by fuel; installed generation capacity, CO2 emissions, energy intensity
• Published in two volumes: – Volume 1: Sector discussions– Volume 2: Individual economy discussions
Outlook 6th Edition Description
3
![Page 4: APERC Workshop at EWG47, Kunming, China 19 May 2014 2. Toward APEC Energy Demand & Supply Outlook 6 th Edition Brantley Liddle Vice President, APERC](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649dd05503460f94ac50bb/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Outlook Model Structure
4
KEY ASSUMPTIONS • Macroeconomic
Data• Oil Prices
• Domestic Fossil Fuel Production
• Biofuel Content of Liquid Fuels
• Own-Use Rates• Heat Production
Market Shares and Efficiencies by Fuel
• CO2 Emission Factors
Industrial and Non-Energy Demand
Model
Transport Demand Model
Other Sector (Residential/Commercial /Agricultural) Demand
Model
Electricity Supply Model
RESULTS TABLES• Macroeconomic
Data• Energy Production
and Imports• Own Use and
Transformation Losses
• Final Energy Demand
• Energy Intensities• CO2 Emissions
![Page 5: APERC Workshop at EWG47, Kunming, China 19 May 2014 2. Toward APEC Energy Demand & Supply Outlook 6 th Edition Brantley Liddle Vice President, APERC](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649dd05503460f94ac50bb/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Outlook Model Enhancements Finished/Nearly Finished
5
• Electricity Supply Model• Dr. Aishah Mohd Isa & Takashi Otsuki
• Transportation Fleet Model• Dr. Atit Tippichai
• Investment Model• Parminder Raeewal
• Residential, Commercial, & other Demand• Dr. Yeong-Chuan Lin
![Page 6: APERC Workshop at EWG47, Kunming, China 19 May 2014 2. Toward APEC Energy Demand & Supply Outlook 6 th Edition Brantley Liddle Vice President, APERC](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649dd05503460f94ac50bb/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Outlook Work in Progress
6
• Industry Model• Kensuke Kanekiyo & Tran Thi Lien Phuong
• Database Management• Naomi Wynn & Dr. Yeong-Chuan Lin
![Page 7: APERC Workshop at EWG47, Kunming, China 19 May 2014 2. Toward APEC Energy Demand & Supply Outlook 6 th Edition Brantley Liddle Vice President, APERC](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649dd05503460f94ac50bb/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Outlook-Related Work in Progress
7
• Topical Work• Barriers to Shale Gas Development• Barriers to Geothermal Electricity Development • Benefits of Electricity Interconnection in Northeast Asia
• Cooperative Work with IEEJ• Nuclear, Fossil Fuel, & Renewables Projections• Bottom-up Residential & Commercial Demand Model
![Page 8: APERC Workshop at EWG47, Kunming, China 19 May 2014 2. Toward APEC Energy Demand & Supply Outlook 6 th Edition Brantley Liddle Vice President, APERC](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649dd05503460f94ac50bb/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
8
Preliminary Results: Electricity Model BAU
Mexico Philippines
2011 20400
50100150200250300350400450500
NREHydroOilGasCoalNuclear
[TWh]
2011 20400
50
100
150
200
250
NREHydroOilGasCoalNuclear
[TWh]
![Page 9: APERC Workshop at EWG47, Kunming, China 19 May 2014 2. Toward APEC Energy Demand & Supply Outlook 6 th Edition Brantley Liddle Vice President, APERC](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649dd05503460f94ac50bb/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
9
Preliminary Results: Vehicle Stock
![Page 10: APERC Workshop at EWG47, Kunming, China 19 May 2014 2. Toward APEC Energy Demand & Supply Outlook 6 th Edition Brantley Liddle Vice President, APERC](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649dd05503460f94ac50bb/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
11
Preliminary Results: Energy Demand
![Page 11: APERC Workshop at EWG47, Kunming, China 19 May 2014 2. Toward APEC Energy Demand & Supply Outlook 6 th Edition Brantley Liddle Vice President, APERC](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649dd05503460f94ac50bb/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Preliminary Alternative Transport Case
13
• Fuel economy of new vehicles improves 1-3% p.a.• High energy efficient vehicles promoted• Efficient driving promoted
![Page 12: APERC Workshop at EWG47, Kunming, China 19 May 2014 2. Toward APEC Energy Demand & Supply Outlook 6 th Edition Brantley Liddle Vice President, APERC](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649dd05503460f94ac50bb/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
14
BAU vs Alternative Case
28.1%
China Thailand
26.5%
![Page 13: APERC Workshop at EWG47, Kunming, China 19 May 2014 2. Toward APEC Energy Demand & Supply Outlook 6 th Edition Brantley Liddle Vice President, APERC](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649dd05503460f94ac50bb/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
15
BAU vs Alternative Case
14.4%
Indonesia
12.9%
Vietnam
![Page 14: APERC Workshop at EWG47, Kunming, China 19 May 2014 2. Toward APEC Energy Demand & Supply Outlook 6 th Edition Brantley Liddle Vice President, APERC](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649dd05503460f94ac50bb/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
16
6th Edition Potential Alternative Cases
• Analyze impact of specific policies, goals– Energy/fuel efficiency standard (vehicles &
buildings)– Alternative urban development– Carbon tax/price– Electricity/Gas interconnection in Northeast Asia– Increased shares for bio-fuels
![Page 15: APERC Workshop at EWG47, Kunming, China 19 May 2014 2. Toward APEC Energy Demand & Supply Outlook 6 th Edition Brantley Liddle Vice President, APERC](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649dd05503460f94ac50bb/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
17
6th Edition Potential Alternative Cases
• Analyze effort need to reach particular targets– Energy intensity– Renewable energy– Two degree CO2 emissions– Greater energy security (lower fossil fuel import
ratios)• High Shale Gas/Natural Gas Case• High Renewables Case• High Nuclear Case
![Page 16: APERC Workshop at EWG47, Kunming, China 19 May 2014 2. Toward APEC Energy Demand & Supply Outlook 6 th Edition Brantley Liddle Vice President, APERC](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649dd05503460f94ac50bb/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Schedule for Outlook 6th Edition
• Northern Summer 2014 – Model results for BAU scenario
• Early Fall 2014 – Alternative scenarios designed • Late 2014 – Models results for alternative cases
finalized
• October-November 2015– Outlook 6th Edition published
18