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July 23, 2013
Annual Report 2012Annual Report 2012
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July 23, 2013 2
Outline presentationOutline presentation
• Developments in:
– Real sector
– Public sector
– External sector
– Monetary and financial sector
• Outlook for 2013 & 2014
• Benchmarking in the Caribbean
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July 23, 2013 3
Real sectorReal sector
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Developments in the
monetary union
Developments in the
monetary union
July 23, 2013 4
2011 2012
Current account balance (in mln NAf.) -1,466.5 -1,382.1
Change in gross foreign reserves of the central
bank (in mln NAf)* -48.4 277.4
Change in money supply (%) 1.3 1.8
Change private loans (%) 5.4 4.8
Curaçao 8.9 8.6
Sint Maarten -2.4 -4.7
GDP growth (%)
Curaçao 0.6 -0.1
Sint Maarten -1.5 1.5
Inflation (%)
Curaçao 2.3 3.2
Sint Maarten 4.6 4.0
*- sign means an increase
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July 23, 2013 5
Macro-economic key figures: a
comparison
Macro-economic key figures: a
comparison
5.3%4.4%2.5%2.3%-1.0%1.0%The
Netherlands
5.9%6.5%21.1%26.1%5.5%4.2%Venezuela
7.8%8.5%2.1%3.2%2.2%1.8%United
States
9.6%8.9%0.6%4.4%-1.2%3.7%Aruba
201220112012201120122011
Unemployment rateConsumer pricesReal GDP
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July 23, 2013 6
Main developments Curaçao in 2012Main developments Curaçao in 2012
• Economic contraction of 0.1%.
• Inflation rate increased to 3.2% due mainly
to the increase in the sales tax rate from
5.0% to 6.0% in 2012.
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Sectoral performance in
Curaçao in 2012 (1)
Sectoral performance in
Curaçao in 2012 (1)• Decline in the manufacturing sector
– Decline in output refinery.
– Decline in ship repair.
• Decline in construction sector
– Lack of major construction projects.
• Growth slowed in wholesale & retail trade sector
– Decline in domestic demand.
– Increase in foreign demand (tourists and free zone).
July 23, 2013 7
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Sectoral performance in
Curaçao in 2012 (2)
Sectoral performance in
Curaçao in 2012 (2)• Increase in restaurants & hotels sector
– Increase stay-over tourism.
– Growth cruise tourism.
• Increase in transport, storage & communication sector
– More passengers handled.
– More ships piloted into the port, more cargo movements, and
more oil storage activities.
July 23, 2013 8
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Economic development CuraçaoEconomic development Curaçao
July 23, 2013 9
0.6%
-0.1%
2.3%
3.2%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Real GDP Inflation
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Curaçao GDP by expenditureCuraçao GDP by expenditure
July 23, 2013 10
Real percentage changes 2011 2012
Domestic expenditure, of Domestic expenditure, of
which:which: --0.20.2 --1.01.0
Private sector 1.8 -0.3
-Consumption 1.4 -0.5
- Investment 0.4 0.2
Public sector -2.0 -0.7
-Consumption -2.0 -0.1
-Investment 0.0 -0.6
Foreign net expenditure, of Foreign net expenditure, of
which:which: 2.02.0 0.70.7
-Exports of G&S 8.6 3.8
-Imports of G&S 6.6 3.0
Real GDP by expenditureReal GDP by expenditure 0.60.6 --0.10.1
Source: Estimates by the Central Bank of Curaçao and Sint Maarten.
*Expenditure categories data are weighted contributors to GDP growth
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Main economic developments
Sint Maarten in 2012
Main economic developments
Sint Maarten in 2012
• Real GDP growth of 1.5%.
• Inflation rate decelerated to 4.0% owing
largely to a slowdown in the growth in
international oil prices.
11
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Sectoral performance in
Sint Maarten in 2012 (1)
Sectoral performance in
Sint Maarten in 2012 (1)• Increase in restaurants & hotels sector
– Increase stay-over tourism.
– Growth cruise tourism, albeit at slower pace compared to
2011.
• Increase in transport, storage & communication sector
– More passengers handled.
– More ships piloted into the port and more cargo movements.
• Growth in wholesale & retail trade sector
– More tourism spending.
– Less domestic spending.
July 23, 2013 12
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Sectoral performance in
Sint Maarten in 2012 (2)
Sectoral performance in
Sint Maarten in 2012 (2)
• Growth in utilities sector
• Increased production and consumption of water and
electricity.
• Growth in financial services sector
• Increase in net interest income of the domestic banks.
• Growth remained flat in the construction sector
• Decline in the manufacturing sector
• Less ship repair activities on yachts.
July 23, 2013 13
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July 23, 2013 14
Economic development
Sint Maarten
Economic development
Sint Maarten
-1.5%
1.5%
4.6%4.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
2008 2009 2010* 2011* 2012*
Real GDP Inflation
*Estimate CBCS
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July 23, 2013 15
Public sectorPublic sector
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July 23, 2013 16
Main developments CuraçaoMain developments Curaçao
• Third consecutive government budget
deficit.
• Negative yet improved primary balance.
• In July 2012, the government was instructed
by the Kingdom Council of Ministers to
balance its 2012 budget and multi-annual
projections.
• The instruction was removed for the most
part early in April 2013.
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July 23, 2013 17
Budget development CuraçaoBudget development Curaçao
-110.3
0
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013*
NA
f. m
ln
Budget balance
* 2013 Government budget
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July 23, 2013 18
Budget development CuraçaoBudget development Curaçao
-110.3
0
1,717 1,765 1,610
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013*
NA
f. m
ln
Budget balance Total expenditures
* 2013 Government budget
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July 23, 2013 19
Budget development CuraçaoBudget development Curaçao
-110.3
0
1,717 1,765 1,610
1,5641,655 1,610
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013*
NA
f. m
ln
Budget balance Total expenditures Total revenues
* 2013 Government budget
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July 23, 2013 20
Total public debt CuraçaoTotal public debt Curaçao
2,208
1,667 1,667
5,439.3 5,607.9
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2010 2011 2012
NA
f m
ln
Total public debt Outstanding government bonds GDP
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July 23, 2013 21
Total public debt-to-GDP ratio
Curaçao
Total public debt-to-GDP ratio
Curaçao
41%39%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2009 2010 2011 2012*
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July 23, 2013 22
Interest burden CuraçaoInterest burden Curaçao
-154-110
0
50 50 52
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013*
Budget balance Interest payments
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July 23, 2013 23
Main developments Sint MaartenMain developments Sint Maarten
• Preliminary budget surplus.
• Positive and improved primary balance.
• Ongoing focus on establishing the necessary
institutions to become a full-fledged
government administration.
• However, financial constraints form a barrier
in this development.
• The 2013 budget has not been signed into
law yet.
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July 23, 2013 24
Interest, debt and GDP Sint MaartenInterest, debt and GDP Sint Maarten
12 11
354 353
1,487.81,569.6
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
1,750
2009 2010 2011 2012
NA
f m
ln
Interest Total public debt GDP
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July 23, 2013 25
Total public debt-to-GDP ratio
Sint Maarten
Total public debt-to-GDP ratio
Sint Maarten
24% 22%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
2009 2010 2011 2012
![Page 26: Annual Report 2012Jan 25, 2019 · Centrale Bank van Curaçao en Sint Maarten Curaçao GDP by expenditure July 23, 2013 10 Real percentage changes 2011 2012 Domestic expenditure,](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071117/600656c7f2643155d218a434/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Cen
trale
Ban
k v
an
Cu
raçao
en
Sin
t M
aart
en
Cen
trale
Ban
k v
an
Cu
raçao
en
Sin
t M
aart
en
Cen
trale
Ban
k v
an
Cu
raçao
en
Sin
t M
aart
en
July 23, 2013 26
External sectorExternal sector
![Page 27: Annual Report 2012Jan 25, 2019 · Centrale Bank van Curaçao en Sint Maarten Curaçao GDP by expenditure July 23, 2013 10 Real percentage changes 2011 2012 Domestic expenditure,](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071117/600656c7f2643155d218a434/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Cen
trale
Ban
k v
an
Cu
raçao
en
Sin
t M
aart
en
Cen
trale
Ban
k v
an
Cu
raçao
en
Sin
t M
aart
en
Cen
trale
Ban
k v
an
Cu
raçao
en
Sin
t M
aart
en
July 23, 2013 27
Main developmentsMain developments
• Current account improved in 2012 due to:
– improvement in the services balance;
– mitigated by deterioration in the trade, current transfers and
income balances.
• Further decline in net capital transfers.
• Increase in external financing moderated due to:
– substantial smaller increase in loans and credits balance.
• Developments resulted in balance of payments deficit
and drop in gross foreign exchange reserves.
![Page 28: Annual Report 2012Jan 25, 2019 · Centrale Bank van Curaçao en Sint Maarten Curaçao GDP by expenditure July 23, 2013 10 Real percentage changes 2011 2012 Domestic expenditure,](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071117/600656c7f2643155d218a434/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Cen
trale
Ban
k v
an
Cu
raçao
en
Sin
t M
aart
en
Cen
trale
Ban
k v
an
Cu
raçao
en
Sin
t M
aart
en
Cen
trale
Ban
k v
an
Cu
raçao
en
Sin
t M
aart
en
July 23, 2013 28
Balance of payments (transaction basis, NAf mln)
Balance of payments (transaction basis, NAf mln)
277.4-48.4-27.6-538.9-371.6Change in reserves
573.7182.2-1,529.3-188.7-126.6Portfolio investments
261.61,076.21,456.0786.71,210.2Loans and credits
112.188.4228.6196.4449.0Direct investments
947.41,346.9155.4794.41,532.6External financing
69.8123.11,200.8200.6244.8Capital account
-1,382.1-1,466.5-1,427.8-608.6-1,513.9Current account
20122011201020092008
![Page 29: Annual Report 2012Jan 25, 2019 · Centrale Bank van Curaçao en Sint Maarten Curaçao GDP by expenditure July 23, 2013 10 Real percentage changes 2011 2012 Domestic expenditure,](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071117/600656c7f2643155d218a434/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Cen
trale
Ban
k v
an
Cu
raçao
en
Sin
t M
aart
en
Cen
trale
Ban
k v
an
Cu
raçao
en
Sin
t M
aart
en
Cen
trale
Ban
k v
an
Cu
raçao
en
Sin
t M
aart
en
July 23, 2013 29
Balance of payments developments (in % of GDP)
Balance of payments developments (in % of GDP)
-21.2% -21.3%
-18.8%
4.1%
19.0%
12.9%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Current account balance External financing to the private sector
![Page 30: Annual Report 2012Jan 25, 2019 · Centrale Bank van Curaçao en Sint Maarten Curaçao GDP by expenditure July 23, 2013 10 Real percentage changes 2011 2012 Domestic expenditure,](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071117/600656c7f2643155d218a434/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Cen
trale
Ban
k v
an
Cu
raçao
en
Sin
t M
aart
en
Cen
trale
Ban
k v
an
Cu
raçao
en
Sin
t M
aart
en
Cen
trale
Ban
k v
an
Cu
raçao
en
Sin
t M
aart
en
Contribution to foreign exchange income*
in 2012
(Curaçao)
Contribution to foreign exchange income*
in 2012
(Curaçao)
July 23, 2013 30*Income from the export of goods and services
Freezone19%
Bunkering14%
Merchandise excl. freezone
7%
Transportation7%
Refining14%
Tourism23%
International financial services
4%
Other services11%
![Page 31: Annual Report 2012Jan 25, 2019 · Centrale Bank van Curaçao en Sint Maarten Curaçao GDP by expenditure July 23, 2013 10 Real percentage changes 2011 2012 Domestic expenditure,](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071117/600656c7f2643155d218a434/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Cen
trale
Ban
k v
an
Cu
raçao
en
Sin
t M
aart
en
Cen
trale
Ban
k v
an
Cu
raçao
en
Sin
t M
aart
en
Cen
trale
Ban
k v
an
Cu
raçao
en
Sin
t M
aart
en
Contribution to foreign exchange income*
in 2000
(Curaçao)
Contribution to foreign exchange income*
in 2000
(Curaçao)
July 23, 2013 31*Income from the export of goods and services
Freezone17%
Bunkering6%
Merchandise excl. freezone
11%
Transportation7%
Refining16%
Tourism14%
International financial services
18%
Other services11%
![Page 32: Annual Report 2012Jan 25, 2019 · Centrale Bank van Curaçao en Sint Maarten Curaçao GDP by expenditure July 23, 2013 10 Real percentage changes 2011 2012 Domestic expenditure,](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071117/600656c7f2643155d218a434/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Cen
trale
Ban
k v
an
Cu
raçao
en
Sin
t M
aart
en
Cen
trale
Ban
k v
an
Cu
raçao
en
Sin
t M
aart
en
Cen
trale
Ban
k v
an
Cu
raçao
en
Sin
t M
aart
en
Contribution to foreign exchange income*
in 2012
(St. Maarten)
Contribution to foreign exchange income*
in 2012
(St. Maarten)
July 23, 2013 32*Income from the export of goods and services
Bunkering1%
Merchandise 10%
Transportation3%
Tourism72%
International financial services
1%
Other services13%
![Page 33: Annual Report 2012Jan 25, 2019 · Centrale Bank van Curaçao en Sint Maarten Curaçao GDP by expenditure July 23, 2013 10 Real percentage changes 2011 2012 Domestic expenditure,](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071117/600656c7f2643155d218a434/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Cen
trale
Ban
k v
an
Cu
raçao
en
Sin
t M
aart
en
Cen
trale
Ban
k v
an
Cu
raçao
en
Sin
t M
aart
en
Cen
trale
Ban
k v
an
Cu
raçao
en
Sin
t M
aart
en
July 23, 2013 33
Tourism sectorTourism sector
811.4
971.7
1287.3
1506.6
0
400
800
1,200
1,600
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
NA
f. m
illi
on
Curacao St. Maarten
![Page 34: Annual Report 2012Jan 25, 2019 · Centrale Bank van Curaçao en Sint Maarten Curaçao GDP by expenditure July 23, 2013 10 Real percentage changes 2011 2012 Domestic expenditure,](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071117/600656c7f2643155d218a434/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Cen
trale
Ban
k v
an
Cu
raçao
en
Sin
t M
aart
en
Cen
trale
Ban
k v
an
Cu
raçao
en
Sin
t M
aart
en
Cen
trale
Ban
k v
an
Cu
raçao
en
Sin
t M
aart
en
July 23, 2013 34
Tourism sectorTourism sector
$542.8 $569.7
$841.7 $858.5
0
250
500
750
1,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013*
US$ m
illi
on
Curacao St. Maarten
![Page 35: Annual Report 2012Jan 25, 2019 · Centrale Bank van Curaçao en Sint Maarten Curaçao GDP by expenditure July 23, 2013 10 Real percentage changes 2011 2012 Domestic expenditure,](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071117/600656c7f2643155d218a434/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
Cen
trale
Ban
k v
an
Cu
raçao
en
Sin
t M
aart
en
Cen
trale
Ban
k v
an
Cu
raçao
en
Sin
t M
aart
en
Cen
trale
Ban
k v
an
Cu
raçao
en
Sin
t M
aart
en
July 23, 2013 35
International financial sectorInternational financial sector
*Projection CBCS
0
150
300
450
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
NA
f. m
illi
on
Net operational income Profit tax BRK windfall 2010
![Page 36: Annual Report 2012Jan 25, 2019 · Centrale Bank van Curaçao en Sint Maarten Curaçao GDP by expenditure July 23, 2013 10 Real percentage changes 2011 2012 Domestic expenditure,](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071117/600656c7f2643155d218a434/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
Cen
trale
Ban
k v
an
Cu
raçao
en
Sin
t M
aart
en
Cen
trale
Ban
k v
an
Cu
raçao
en
Sin
t M
aart
en
Cen
trale
Ban
k v
an
Cu
raçao
en
Sin
t M
aart
en
Refining feeRefining fee
July 23, 2013 36*Projection CBCS
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
NA
f. m
illi
on
![Page 37: Annual Report 2012Jan 25, 2019 · Centrale Bank van Curaçao en Sint Maarten Curaçao GDP by expenditure July 23, 2013 10 Real percentage changes 2011 2012 Domestic expenditure,](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071117/600656c7f2643155d218a434/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
Cen
trale
Ban
k v
an
Cu
raçao
en
Sin
t M
aart
en
Cen
trale
Ban
k v
an
Cu
raçao
en
Sin
t M
aart
en
Cen
trale
Ban
k v
an
Cu
raçao
en
Sin
t M
aart
en
July 23, 2013 37
Monthly import coverageMonthly import coverage
0
1
2
3
4
5
Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12
Mo
nth
s
Import coverage norm Import coverage
![Page 38: Annual Report 2012Jan 25, 2019 · Centrale Bank van Curaçao en Sint Maarten Curaçao GDP by expenditure July 23, 2013 10 Real percentage changes 2011 2012 Domestic expenditure,](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071117/600656c7f2643155d218a434/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
Cen
trale
Ban
k v
an
Cu
raçao
en
Sin
t M
aart
en
Cen
trale
Ban
k v
an
Cu
raçao
en
Sin
t M
aart
en
Cen
trale
Ban
k v
an
Cu
raçao
en
Sin
t M
aart
en
July 23, 2013 38
Monetary and financial sectorMonetary and financial sector
![Page 39: Annual Report 2012Jan 25, 2019 · Centrale Bank van Curaçao en Sint Maarten Curaçao GDP by expenditure July 23, 2013 10 Real percentage changes 2011 2012 Domestic expenditure,](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071117/600656c7f2643155d218a434/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
Cen
trale
Ban
k v
an
Cu
raçao
en
Sin
t M
aart
en
Cen
trale
Ban
k v
an
Cu
raçao
en
Sin
t M
aart
en
Cen
trale
Ban
k v
an
Cu
raçao
en
Sin
t M
aart
en
July 23, 2013 39
Main monetary developmentsMain monetary developments
• Moderate increase in money supply.
• Moderation in private credit extension.
• Declining trend in interest rates continued.
![Page 40: Annual Report 2012Jan 25, 2019 · Centrale Bank van Curaçao en Sint Maarten Curaçao GDP by expenditure July 23, 2013 10 Real percentage changes 2011 2012 Domestic expenditure,](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071117/600656c7f2643155d218a434/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
Cen
trale
Ban
k v
an
Cu
raçao
en
Sin
t M
aart
en
Cen
trale
Ban
k v
an
Cu
raçao
en
Sin
t M
aart
en
Cen
trale
Ban
k v
an
Cu
raçao
en
Sin
t M
aart
en
July 23, 2013 40
Money supplyMoney supply
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
NA
f. m
illi
on
Net domestic assets Net foreign assets
![Page 41: Annual Report 2012Jan 25, 2019 · Centrale Bank van Curaçao en Sint Maarten Curaçao GDP by expenditure July 23, 2013 10 Real percentage changes 2011 2012 Domestic expenditure,](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071117/600656c7f2643155d218a434/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
Cen
trale
Ban
k v
an
Cu
raçao
en
Sin
t M
aart
en
Cen
trale
Ban
k v
an
Cu
raçao
en
Sin
t M
aart
en
Cen
trale
Ban
k v
an
Cu
raçao
en
Sin
t M
aart
en
July 23, 2013 41
Net domestic creditNet domestic credit
84
196
610
218
-162-100
-1,100
-800
-500
-200
100
400
700
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
NA
f. m
illi
on
Government Private sector Other
![Page 42: Annual Report 2012Jan 25, 2019 · Centrale Bank van Curaçao en Sint Maarten Curaçao GDP by expenditure July 23, 2013 10 Real percentage changes 2011 2012 Domestic expenditure,](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071117/600656c7f2643155d218a434/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
Cen
trale
Ban
k v
an
Cu
raçao
en
Sin
t M
aart
en
Cen
trale
Ban
k v
an
Cu
raçao
en
Sin
t M
aart
en
Cen
trale
Ban
k v
an
Cu
raçao
en
Sin
t M
aart
en
July 23, 2013 42
Domestic interest rates (commercial bank lending rates)
Domestic interest rates (commercial bank lending rates)
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12
Mortgages Time loans
![Page 43: Annual Report 2012Jan 25, 2019 · Centrale Bank van Curaçao en Sint Maarten Curaçao GDP by expenditure July 23, 2013 10 Real percentage changes 2011 2012 Domestic expenditure,](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071117/600656c7f2643155d218a434/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
Cen
trale
Ban
k v
an
Cu
raçao
en
Sin
t M
aart
en
Cen
trale
Ban
k v
an
Cu
raçao
en
Sin
t M
aart
en
Cen
trale
Ban
k v
an
Cu
raçao
en
Sin
t M
aart
en
July 23, 2013 43
Domestic interest rates (borrowing rates)
Domestic interest rates (borrowing rates)
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12
Passbook savings Time deposits (12 months)
![Page 44: Annual Report 2012Jan 25, 2019 · Centrale Bank van Curaçao en Sint Maarten Curaçao GDP by expenditure July 23, 2013 10 Real percentage changes 2011 2012 Domestic expenditure,](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071117/600656c7f2643155d218a434/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
Cen
trale
Ban
k v
an
Cu
raçao
en
Sin
t M
aart
en
Cen
trale
Ban
k v
an
Cu
raçao
en
Sin
t M
aart
en
Cen
trale
Ban
k v
an
Cu
raçao
en
Sin
t M
aart
en
July 23, 2013 44
Domestic interest rates(government securities)
Domestic interest rates(government securities)
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12
Gov. bond (5yr, eff. yield) Treasury bills (1 month)
![Page 45: Annual Report 2012Jan 25, 2019 · Centrale Bank van Curaçao en Sint Maarten Curaçao GDP by expenditure July 23, 2013 10 Real percentage changes 2011 2012 Domestic expenditure,](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071117/600656c7f2643155d218a434/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
Cen
trale
Ban
k v
an
Cu
raçao
en
Sin
t M
aart
en
Cen
trale
Ban
k v
an
Cu
raçao
en
Sin
t M
aart
en
Cen
trale
Ban
k v
an
Cu
raçao
en
Sin
t M
aart
en
Loans to the private sector(year-on-year growth)
Loans to the private sector(year-on-year growth)
July 23, 2013 45
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Jan
-11
Feb
-11
Mar-
11
Ap
r-11
May-1
1
Jun
-11
Jul-
11
Au
g-1
1
Sep
-11
Oct-
11
Nov-1
1
Dec-1
1
Jan
-12
Feb
-12
Mar-
12
Ap
r-12
May-1
2
Jun
-12
Jul-
12
Au
g-1
2
Sep
-12
Oct-
12
Nov-1
2
Dec-1
2
Jan
-13
Feb
-13
Mar-
13
Ap
r-13
May-1
3
Loans to the private sector Loans to the private sector Curaçao
Loans to the private sector Sint Maarten
![Page 46: Annual Report 2012Jan 25, 2019 · Centrale Bank van Curaçao en Sint Maarten Curaçao GDP by expenditure July 23, 2013 10 Real percentage changes 2011 2012 Domestic expenditure,](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071117/600656c7f2643155d218a434/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
Cen
trale
Ban
k v
an
Cu
raçao
en
Sin
t M
aart
en
Cen
trale
Ban
k v
an
Cu
raçao
en
Sin
t M
aart
en
Cen
trale
Ban
k v
an
Cu
raçao
en
Sin
t M
aart
en
July 23, 2013 46
Main financial developmentsMain financial developments
• Banks:
– Improved capitalization.
– Further increase in non-performing loans.
– Decrease in earnings and profitability.
• Institutional investors:
– Increase in assets.
– Decrease in profitability, except non-life
insurance industry.
![Page 47: Annual Report 2012Jan 25, 2019 · Centrale Bank van Curaçao en Sint Maarten Curaçao GDP by expenditure July 23, 2013 10 Real percentage changes 2011 2012 Domestic expenditure,](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071117/600656c7f2643155d218a434/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
Cen
trale
Ban
k v
an
Cu
raçao
en
Sin
t M
aart
en
Cen
trale
Ban
k v
an
Cu
raçao
en
Sin
t M
aart
en
Cen
trale
Ban
k v
an
Cu
raçao
en
Sin
t M
aart
en
July 23, 2013 47
Capital adequacyCapital adequacy
9.9% 10.1%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Tier 1 capital-to-total assets 4% norm
![Page 48: Annual Report 2012Jan 25, 2019 · Centrale Bank van Curaçao en Sint Maarten Curaçao GDP by expenditure July 23, 2013 10 Real percentage changes 2011 2012 Domestic expenditure,](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071117/600656c7f2643155d218a434/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
Cen
trale
Ban
k v
an
Cu
raçao
en
Sin
t M
aart
en
Cen
trale
Ban
k v
an
Cu
raçao
en
Sin
t M
aart
en
Cen
trale
Ban
k v
an
Cu
raçao
en
Sin
t M
aart
en
July 23, 2013 48
Assets qualityAssets quality
3.0% 3.2%
6.8%
8.1%
3.0% 3.1%
0.0%
3.0%
6.0%
9.0%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Gross specific provisions-to-total loans Non-performing loans-to-total loans
Gross general provisions-to-total loans
![Page 49: Annual Report 2012Jan 25, 2019 · Centrale Bank van Curaçao en Sint Maarten Curaçao GDP by expenditure July 23, 2013 10 Real percentage changes 2011 2012 Domestic expenditure,](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071117/600656c7f2643155d218a434/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
Cen
trale
Ban
k v
an
Cu
raçao
en
Sin
t M
aart
en
Cen
trale
Ban
k v
an
Cu
raçao
en
Sin
t M
aart
en
Cen
trale
Ban
k v
an
Cu
raçao
en
Sin
t M
aart
en
July 23, 2013 49
Earnings & profitabilityEarnings & profitability
1.9%1.7%
0%
1%
2%
3%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Return-on-assets 0.6% norm
![Page 50: Annual Report 2012Jan 25, 2019 · Centrale Bank van Curaçao en Sint Maarten Curaçao GDP by expenditure July 23, 2013 10 Real percentage changes 2011 2012 Domestic expenditure,](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071117/600656c7f2643155d218a434/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
Cen
trale
Ban
k v
an
Cu
raçao
en
Sin
t M
aart
en
Cen
trale
Ban
k v
an
Cu
raçao
en
Sin
t M
aart
en
Cen
trale
Ban
k v
an
Cu
raçao
en
Sin
t M
aart
en
July 23, 2013 50
Outlook 2013 & 2014Outlook 2013 & 2014
![Page 51: Annual Report 2012Jan 25, 2019 · Centrale Bank van Curaçao en Sint Maarten Curaçao GDP by expenditure July 23, 2013 10 Real percentage changes 2011 2012 Domestic expenditure,](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071117/600656c7f2643155d218a434/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
Cen
trale
Ban
k v
an
Cu
raçao
en
Sin
t M
aart
en
Cen
trale
Ban
k v
an
Cu
raçao
en
Sin
t M
aart
en
Cen
trale
Ban
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Expected developments in 2013Expected developments in 2013
July 23, 2013 51
2012 2013
Current account balance (in mln NAf.) -1,382.1 -1,258.4
Change in foreign reserves (in mln NAf.)* 277.4 165.2
GDP growth (%)
Curaçao -0.1 -0.7
Sint Maarten 1.5 1.1
Inflation (%)
Curaçao 3.2 3.0
Sint Maarten 4.0 3.0
*- sign means an increase
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Cen
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Ban
k v
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Cu
raçao
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Sin
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Cen
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Ban
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Sin
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Cen
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Ban
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Expected developments in 2013Expected developments in 2013
• Real GDP of Curaçao is expected to contract by
0.7% in 2013.
• The economic contraction is due to a decline in
domestic demand, mitigated by an increase in net
foreign demand.
• Inflation will decelerate to 3.0%, owing largely to a
projected decline in international oil and food
prices.
July 23, 2013 52
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Cen
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k v
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Cu
raçao
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Sin
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Cen
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Ban
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Cu
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Sin
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aart
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Cen
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Ban
k v
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Cu
raçao
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Sin
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Expected developments in 2013Expected developments in 2013
• Sint Maarten’s GDP is estimated to expand by
1.1% in 2013, a deceleration compared to the real
growth of 1.5% in 2012.
• The economic slowdown is largely attributable to
weakened activities in the restaurants & hotels and
the wholesale and retail trade sectors.
• Inflation will ease to 3.0%, reflecting mainly lower
projected international oil and food prices.
July 23, 2013 53
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Cen
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k v
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Cu
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Sin
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Cen
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Ban
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Sin
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Cen
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Ban
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Balance of payments projectionBalance of payments projection
July 23, 2013 54
165.2277.4-48.4-27.6-538.9Change in reserves
240.0573.7182.2-1,529.3-188.7Portfolio investments
455.0261.61,076.21,456.0786.7Loans and credits
110.0112.188.4228.6196.4Direct investments
805.0947.41,346.9155.4794.4External financing
12.369.8123.11,200.8200.6Capital account
-1,258.4-1,382.1-1,466.5-1,427.8-608.6Current account
2013*2012201120102009
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Cen
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raçao
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Sin
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Cen
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Ban
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Cu
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Sin
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aart
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Cen
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Ban
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Sin
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Expected developments in 2014Expected developments in 2014
• In the baseline scenario, the economy of Curacao
is projected to expand by 0.1% in 2014.
• Growth will be driven by increased net foreign
demand. By contrast, domestic demand will
contract.
• Inflation will decelerate to 2.8% in line with the
development of the inflation rate in the United
States.
July 23, 2013 55
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Cen
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Sin
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Cen
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Ban
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Cu
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Sin
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aart
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Cen
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Ban
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Sin
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Expected developments in 2014Expected developments in 2014
• Assuming the construction of a new hospital will
commence in 2014, real GDP will expand by 1.1%
• Growth will be driven by increased domestic
demand, particularly government investment,
mitigated by a decline in net foreign demand.
July 23, 2013 56
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Cen
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raçao
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Sin
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aart
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Cen
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Ban
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raçao
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Sin
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aart
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Cen
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Ban
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Sin
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Expected developments in 2014Expected developments in 2014
• The economy of Sint Maarten is projected to grow
by 1.0% in 2014, driven mainly by the tourism,
transportation, and marine trade sectors.
• Growth in tourism will stem primarily from more
stay-over tourism as cruise tourism is projected to
remain flat.
• Inflation will ease further to reach 2.7% supported
by the projected decline in international oil and
food prices. An increase in excises on tobacco and
alcohol will contribute to inflationary pressures.
July 23, 2013 57
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Cen
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Ban
k v
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raçao
en
Sin
t M
aart
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Cen
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Ban
k v
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Cen
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Economic developments 2011-2014Economic developments 2011-2014
2011 2012 2013* 2014*
Real GDP growth Real GDP growth (%)(%)
Curaçao 0.6 -0.1 -0.7 0.1
Sint Maarten -1.5 1.5 1.1 1.0
Inflation Inflation (%)(%)
Curaçao 2.3 3.2 3.0 2.8
Sint Maarten 4.6 4.0 3.0 2.7
Current account balance (in mln NAf) -1,466.5 -1,382.1 -1,258.4 -1,072.8
Current account balance (% GDP) -21.3 -18.8 -17.0 -14.1
July 23, 2013 58* Estimate CBCS
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Cen
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Ban
k v
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raçao
en
Sin
t M
aart
en
Cen
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Ban
k v
an
Cu
raçao
en
Sin
t M
aart
en
Cen
trale
Ban
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raçao
en
Sin
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2011 2012 2013* 2014*
Government balanceGovernment balance
Curaçao (in mln NAf.) -153.7 -110.3 0 0
% GDP -2.8 -2.0 0 0
Sint Maarten (in mln NAf.) 10.3 27.9 0 0
% GDP 0.7 1.8 0 0
DebtDebt--toto--GDP GDP ratio (%)ratio (%)
Curaçao 40.6 39.4 38.5 37.4
Sint Maarten 23.8 22.5 21.4 20.6
July 23, 2013 59* Estimate CBCS
Assumption: no debt accumulation in 2013 and 2014
Economic developments 2011-2014Economic developments 2011-2014
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Cen
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Ban
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Sin
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Cen
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July 23, 2013 60
Caribbean benchmarkingCaribbean benchmarking
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Ban
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Sin
t M
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Cen
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Ban
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Sin
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Cen
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61 July 23, 2013
GDP growth rate (%)GDP growth rate (%)
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook,
estimates CBCS, Central Bank of Aruba
-0.1
1.5
-0.7
1.1
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
2012 2013
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Cen
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Ban
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raçao
en
Sin
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en
Cen
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Ban
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Cu
raçao
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Sin
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Cen
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Ban
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Sin
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62 July 23, 2013
Inflation (%)Inflation (%)
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook,
estimates CBCS, Central Bank of Aruba
3.24.0
3.0 3.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
2012 2013
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raçao
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Sin
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Cen
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Ban
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Sin
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Cen
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63 July 23, 2013
Government expenditure (percentage of GDP)
Government expenditure (percentage of GDP)
32
2628 27
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2012 2013
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook,
estimates CBCS, Central Bank of Aruba
* No estimates for 2013
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Cen
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Ban
k v
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raçao
en
Sin
t M
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Cen
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Ban
k v
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Cu
raçao
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Sin
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en
Cen
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Ban
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64 July 23, 2013
Public debt-to-GDP ratio (%)Public debt-to-GDP ratio (%)
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook,
estimates CBCS, Central Bank of Aruba
* No estimates for 2013
39
22
39
22
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2012 2013
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Ban
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Sin
t M
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Cen
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Ban
k v
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July 23, 2013 65
-2.8
-18.8
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
Antigua and Barbuda Aruba Bahamas Barbados
Curaçao & SXM Dominica Grenada
2004 2012
Current account deficit(percentage of GDP)
Current account deficit(percentage of GDP)
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook,
estimates CBCS, Central Bank of Aruba
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Cen
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Cen
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Ban
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July 23, 2013 66
Thank you for your Thank you for your
attentionattention