Adaptation: managing the unavoidable
Roundtable 3: Can agricultural investment
coexist with climate change policies?
Ana IglesiasUniversidad Politécnica de Madrid, Spain
EastAgri Annual Meeting 2010
Istanbul, 13-14 Oct 2010
Roundtable 3 (October 14, 900 – 1230 h)1
1 key issue can agricultural investment coexist with climate change policies?
2 challenges
– Speak a common language (prioritise reasons for concern)
– Improve dialogue between science, policy and society (define how, lessons from EU initiatives, measures that make sense today and in the future)
(academic point of vies, some thoughts and some examples) 2
Reasons for concern
Financial crisis, terror, inequality,
degradation of the environment, …
Common element: global issues, what
happens in one place has an influence
on what happens in another place
3
Food importers are buying agricultural land of poor countries
Defining the baseline is difficult 4
Reasons for concern (synthesis of global studies)
Risks and opportunities
Optimal crop zones
Crop productivity
Water conflict
Soil salinity and erosion
Damage by extremes
Environmental degradation
Pests and diseases
High risk, highly certain
Medium risk, some uncertainty
Possible opportunity,
if management is adequate
“The adaptation gap” Can optimal management decrease vulnerability to climate?
5
HadCM3 A2 HadCM3 B2
Example 1Changes in land productivity (Iglesias et al 2007; 2010)
We do not know
how our world
would be like in
the future 6
8
Complexity: need to
understand local
vulnerabilities
What might a low GHG diet look like?(Source: T. Garnett, 2009)
– Not overeating
– Much less meat and dairy
– Seasonal field grown foods
– Not eating certain foods
– Reducing dependence on cold chain
– Wasting less
– Efficient cooking
– Redefining quality9
10
6 Measures with high mitigation potential
1.Catch crops
2.Reduced tillage
3.Use crop residues
4.Optimising fertiliser use
5.Increase wood crops
6.Optimal pasture renewal
6 Evaluation criteria
1.Mitigation potential
2.Externalities
3.Barriers to implementation (tech., ec., social)
4.Interest to farmers
5.May be included in CAP?
6.Incentives?
10Source: PICCMAT (6th FP EU)
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Example 2: Water
0
40
80
120
2020 2050 2080
Po
pula
tion
(m
illio
ns)
Additional population under extreme stress of water shortage
University of Southampton 11
12 12
13
14
Energy consumption for seawater desalination
0
5
10
15
20
25
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010Year
Kw
h p
er m
3
14
http://ciesin.columbia.edu/publications.html15
Example 3: Human displacement
Improve dialogue science, policy, society
Example 4: Lessons from EU initiatives (EC White paper on adaptation; EU funded research)
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Role of RD (CAP)
A flexible framework
Axis 1Farm modernizationRestoring & preventionFarm advisory servicesTrainingAxis 2Agri-env measuresPayments linked to WFDAxis 3Diversification into non-agricultural activities
Leader 18
natural water resources
regulation infrastructure
water availability
non-conventionalresources
Policy
nature non-nature uses
water recycling
Policy
essentialproductivePolicy
Policy
19Source: Garrote et al., 2010
Role of WFD
Example 4: Evaluation (and valuation) of policy action (Iglesias et al., 2010)
HadCM3/HIRHAM B2 scenario, 2071-2100, (% yield change)
RegionAdap.Policy Urban / Env (1)
Adap.Farm (2)
Adapt.Policy Econ /Rural Dev (3)
Boreal 25 to 30 34 35 to 40
Atlantic South -10 to -10 -7 -5 to 0
Cont. North 0 to 5 4 5 to 10
Alpine 10 to 20 23 25 to 40
Med. South -50 to -25 1 0 to 20
(1) Emphasis on water resources protection and urban development(2) Farm adaptation without policy support (private)(3) Emphasis on agricultural production and rural development 20
Reasons for concern when we think
about climate change
Consequences are too unequal
Uncertainty
Deciding on the solutions that are
appropriate (the how issue)
21
thank you
Presentation made at the:EastAgri Annual Meeting 2010
Istanbul, 13-14 Oct 2010Roundtable 3 (October 14, 900 – 1230 h)
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