An UpdateCrawford Jencks-------------------
July 2011 RAC Meeting
NCHRP 20-83Long-Range Strategic Issues Facing the Transportation Industry
Seven — $1.0 Million Projects
1. Freight and the economyMIT/Christopher Caplice
2. Technologies and system performanceRAND Corporation/Steven Popper
3. Preservation, maintenance, and renewalTexas A&M Research Foundation/Stuart Anderson
4. Energy supplies and alternative fuelsRAND Corporation/Paul Sorenson
5. Climate changePB Americas/Michael Meyer
6. Socio-demographics and travel demandNuStats/Johanna Zmud
7. Sustainability systems and organizing principlesBooz Allen Hamilton/John Wiegmann
Project 20-83 Long-Term Strategic Issues
WHY?
The transportation industry faces challenges today, AND it will face new and emerging challenges decades from now that may reshape transportation priorities and needs.
DOTs must be prepared to anticipate the implications of the future.
Targeted research is needed to focus on these long-term strategic issues—lessen the “surprise factor.”
Overall Concept20-83 Series
Avoid being constrained by the presentProject outward 30-50 yearsCreate possible, representative future “what-
if” scenariosDetermine factors influencing scenariosProvide guidance on monitoring those factors
and assessing the results: Is change occurring?
Offer strategies to state DOTs to adapt, mitigate, or revise change
—Be proactive rather than reactive—
Program Goal No. 1: Anticipate the future issues so that we are better prepared to meet new and emerging challenges.
Program Goal No. 2: Explore visions of what the future should look like, so that we can help shape the future through our decision making..
Economic Changes Driving Future Freight TransportationMassachusetts Institute of
Technology/Christopher Caplice
NCHRP 20-83 (01)
Provide decision makers with a critical analysis of the driving forces behind high-impact economic changes and business sourcing patterns that may affect the U.S. freight transportation system. To be completed: December 2011
Expediting Future Technologies for Enhancing Transportation System
PerformanceRAND Corporation/Steven Popper
NCHRP 20-83 (02)
Develop a process that transportation agencies can use to identify, assess, shape, and adopt new and emerging technologies to achieve long-term system performance objectives.
To b e completed: June 2012
Products
Practical framework for transportation professionals to think more effectively about technology.
Tools to assist in technology assessment.Guidelines for agency use of the
assessment results.Case study of bridge inspection
technologies.
Long –Range Strategic Issues Affecting Preservation, Maintenance,
and Renewal of Highway Infrastructure
Texas A&M Research Foundation/Stuart Anderson
NCHRP 20-83 (03)
Guidance for transportation stakeholders on emerging materials, tools, approaches, and technologies that could be used to deal with long-range (30 to 50 years) highway infrastructure maintenance, preservation, and renewal needs and ensure satisfactory system condition and performance.To be completed: June 2013
Phase I Key Results • Identified 67 scenario drivers for 13 technical areas• Developed 78 scenarios for 13 technical areas (six per area
based on negative, mid-range, and positive worlds) • Aggregated 67 into 13 critical drivers
– Climate Change– Economic Growth– Priority on Environmental Quality– Funding– Government Role– Mobility– Population Density– Public Commitment to Sustainability– Resources/Energy – Road Freight– Security– Technology/Innovation– Transportation Choices/Complexity
Phase I Results
• Critical Scenario Driver Impact – Examples– Economic Growth
• Expected Future: Some positive change with slow growth rate
• Alternative Future: Constant and flat or some negative change and a declining growth rate
– Public Commitment to Sustainability• Expected Future: More commitment with slow rate of
commitment• Alternative Future: Less commitment with even slower
rate of commitment
• Final Scenarios – Multi-driver based and not Linear (under development)
Effects of Changing Transportation Energy Supplies and Alternative
Sources on TransportationRAND Corporation/Paul Sorenson
NCHRP 20-83 (04)
1) Determine how the mandate, role, funding, and operations of DOTs will likely be affected by future changes in long-term energy supply and demand
2) Identify strategies and actions that can be used by the DOTs to plan and prepare for these effects.
To be completed: June 2012
Petroleum Remains Dominant
Biofuels Grow in Use, Replacing
Some Petroleum Consumption
Driving Becomes Less Expensive
Driving Costs Remain Moderate
Driving Becomes More Expensive
Energy and Vehicle Technology Mix Travel Costs
Electric Vehicles Become the
Dominant Form of Passenger Car
Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles Become
the Dominant Form of Passenger Car
Diverse Mix of Fuels and Vehicle
Technologies Are Adopted
E1
E1 = Petroleum, Low CostE2 = Petroleum, High CostE3 = Biofuels, Moderate CostE4 = Natural Gas, Moderate CostE5 = Electric, Low CostE6 = Hydrogen, Moderate CostE7 = Mixed Fuels, High Cost
Composite Scenarios
E2
E3
E4
E5
E6
Natural Gas Emerges as a
Significant Competitor
E7
Energy
Use
Scenarios
Percentage of Passenger Vehicle Miles
Powered By: Per-Mile
Travel
Costs
(2011 $)Petroleu
m
Biofue
l
Natur
al Gas
Electr
icity
Hydro
gen
Current
Status~ 94% ~ 6%
Neglig
ible
Neglig
ibleNone
8 to 17
cents
E1:
Petroleum,
Low Cost
~ 90% ~ 10%Neglig
ible
Neglig
ible
Neglig
ible4 to 8 cents
E2:
Petroleum,
High Cost
~ 90% ~ 10%Negligib
le
Negligib
le
Negligib
le17 to 68 cents
E3: Biofuels,
Moderate
Cost
~ 70% ~ 30%Negligib
le
Negligib
le
Negligib
le8 to 17 cents
E4: Natural
Gas,
Moderate
Cost
~ 45% ~ 5% ~ 50%Negligib
le
Negligib
le8 to 17 cents
E5: Electric,
Low Cost~ 20% ~ 5%
Negligib
le~ 75%
Negligib
le4 to 8 cents
E6:
Hydrogen,
Moderate
Cost
~ 20% ~ 5%Negligib
le
Negligib
le~ 75% 8 to 17 cents
E7: Mixed
Fuels, High
Cost
~ 20% ~ 5% ~ 25% ~ 25% ~ 25%17 to 68
cents
Illustrative Details of Composite Energy Use
Scenarios
Large Increase in Goods Movement, Large Increase in
Trucking Mode Share
Moderate Increase in Goods Movement,
Moderate Increase in Trucking Mode Share
Growth in Passenger Travel
Growth in Goods Movement
Rapid Growth Commensurate with
Past Trends
Moderate Growth in Passenger Travel,
Moderate Increase in Transit Share
Little Growth in Passenger Travel,
Significant Increase in Transit Share
T1 = High Passenger and Truck GrowthT2 = Moderate Passenger and Truck GrowthT3 = Low Passenger and Truck Growth
Composite Scenarios
T3Small Increase in
Goods Movement, No Increase in Trucking
Mode Share
T2
T1
Scenario Passenger VMT Transit
Mode
Share
Truck VMT Truck
Mode
ShareAnnual
Growth
Total
(40
Yrs.)
Annual
Growth
Total
(40
Yrs.)
Historical / Current 2.6% -- <2% 3.5% -- 29%
T1. High Passenger and
Truck Growth2.6% 172% 2% 2.3% 64% 35%
T2. Moderate Passenger
and Truck Growth1.6% 86% 5% 1.9% 47% 32%
T3. Low Passenger and
Truck Growth0.5% 21% 10% 1.5% 35% 29%
Illustrative Details of Composite Travel Scenarios
Federal
Policy
Scenarios
Climate & Energy Policies Transportation Funding Policies
Regulatory
MandatesSubsidies
Pricing
Policies
Federal
Funding
Federal Fuel
Taxes
MBUF or
Expanded
Tolling
Variable
Pricing
Policies
Current
Status
CAFE
Standards,
Renewable
Fuel
Standards
Moderate
R&D
support,
vehicle and
fuel
subsidies
None
Significant
but
diminishing
Losing real
value per
mile of
travel
Limited
Limited
application
of
congestion
tolls
P1.
Conservativ
e Policy
Scenario
Modest
increases to
CAFE and
RFS
standards
Moderate
R&D
support,
more limited
vehicle and
fuel
subsidies
None
Federal
program
continues to
diminish
Not
increased
significantly
Limited
Limited
application
of
congestion
tolls
P2.
Moderate
Policy
Scenario
Modest
increases to
CAFE and
RFS
standards
Moderate
R&D
support,
more limited
vehicle and
fuel
subsidies
None
Federal
program
expands
moderately
Increased in
the near
term (e.g.,
50 cents per
gallon)
Introduced
in the 2020
timeframe
Moderate
application
of
congestion
tolls
P3.
Aggressive
Policy
Scenario
Aggressive
increases to
CAFE,
modest
increase to
RFS
Greater
funding for
R&D,
vehicle, and
fuel
subsidies
Carbon tax
or cap and
trade along
with vehicle
feebate
programs
Federal
program
expands
considerably
Significantly
increased in
the near
term (e.g.,
75 cents per
gallon)
Introduced
in the 2020
timeframe
Extensive
use of
congestion
tolls,
weight-
distance
truck tolls,
fees based
on emissions
Illustrative Details of Federal Policy Composite ScenariosModerate Energy /
Climate Policies
Aggressive Energy / Climate Policies
Declining Federal Revenue and
Investment Capacity
Renewed Federal Commitment to Transportation Investments
Shift to Efficiency-Oriented Funding
Mechanisms
Energy / Climate Policy Building Blocks
Transportation Funding Policy Building Blocks
P1 = Conservative Federal PoliciesP2 = Moderate Federal PoliciesP3 = Aggressive Federal Policies
Composite Scenarios
P3
P2
P1
Climate Change and the Highway System: Impacts and Adaptation
ApproachesPB Americas/Michael Meyer
NCHRP 20-83 (05)
1) Synthesize the current state of worldwide knowledge regarding the probable range of impacts of climate change for the period 2030-2050
2) Recommend institutional arrangements, tools, approaches, and strategies that state departments of transportation (DOTs) can use during system planning, design, construction, operations, and maintenance to adapt infrastructure and operations to these impacts and lessen their effects.
To be completed: March 2012
Preliminary U.S. Climate Changes: 2010-2050Average Annual Temperature: Lower 48, +4°F;Upper Midwest, +5-6°F; Coastal Regions, +2-3°F;Alaska, +6-7°F
U.S. Winter Temperatures: Less than average annual change but magnitude uncertain.
U.S. Summer Temperatures: Greater than average annual change but magnitude uncertain.
Annual Precipitation: Wetter in the eastern U.S.; drier in the west, south-central, deep south, and Florida; much wetter in Alaska.
Sea Level Rise (intermediate model): Average, 6.4±3.5 inches; maximum, 16.8 inches (LA); minimum, -5.6 inches (AK).
Extreme Events: Decrease of 1-3 weeks of days below freezing; increase in north of days with >0.4 inches of rainfall.ALL ESTIMATES HAVE HIGH DEGREES OF UNCERTAINTY!
Effects of Socio-Demographics on Travel Demand
NuStats/Johanna Zmud
NCHRP 20-83 (06)
Determine how socio-demographic factors are likely to affect travel demand over the next 30 to 50 years and to identify strategies and actions that can be used by policymakers in state and local transportation and planning agencies to plan and prepare for alternative future scenarios.
To be completed: March 2012
1st interim report identified key drivers …
Individual-Level:• Population Size and Growth• Geo-Demographics of Population Size and Growth• Household Structure and Composition• Household-Based Economic Activity• Cultural and Social Diversity
Macro Level:• External Factors Intertwined with Socio-Demographics• External Factors that Impact Scenario Analysis
Phase 3 Technical Memo examined 4 broad scenarios:
• Momentum – gradual changes without radical shifts • Technology Triumphs – technology solves all problems • Global Chaos – collapse in globalism and sustainability • Gentle Footprint – widespread shift to low-impact living
Key assumptions and indicators will be identified for each scenario.
Future tasks will model how DOTs can predict, influence, and adapt to these scenarios.
Sustainable Transportation Systems and Sustainability as an Organizing Principle for Transportation Agencies
Booz Allen Hamilton/John Wiegmann
NCHRP 20-83 (07)
Provide a framework for transportation agencies to use to identify and understand the future trends and external forces that will increasingly put pressure on their ability to carry out their responsibilities to (1) meet society’s evolving demand for transportation services and (2) meet society’s emerging need to operate on a more sustainable basis.
To be completed: September 2012
Major Drivers…
Overview of the research…
December 2010 Workshop & Supplemental Scan of Scientific
and Technological Advances
NCHRP 20-83A
Workshop held Dec. 8-9, 2010SCORPrincipal InvestigatorsPanel Chairs
PIs presented research approaches and summarized early work efforts
Discussion of potential NCHRP 20-83 topicsNo new topics selected
Workshop report available at: http://apps.trb.org/cmsfeed/TRBNetProjectDisplay.asp?ProjectID=2934
Communication Plan and Presentation Materials
NCHRP 20-83B
SCOR anticipates a need for a communication plan to identify the most effective methods and venues for disseminating this information. The requested funding of $500,000 will enable the development and implementation of a communications plan for the entire series of projects. SCOR requested a detailed scope of work be presented for review at their Fall 2011 meeting.
Crawford JencksDeputy Director, Cooperative
Research ProgramsTransportation Research Board
[email protected]/334-3233
Thank you!
Thoughts about the Future
When it comes to the future, there are three kinds of people: those who let it happen, those who make it happen, and those who wonder what happened. John M. Richardson, Jr., American University
In times of change, learners inherit the Earth, while the learned find themselves beautifully equipped to deal with a world that no longer exists. Eric Hoffer, American writer 1902-1983
If you don’t like change, you’re going to like irrelevance even less. General Eric Shinseki, retired Chief of Staff, U.S. Army