An Economic Analysis of the Great Depression: Lessons for Today
Council for Economic Education March 21, 2009Mark C. Schug, Ph.D.University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee
Whatdunnit? The Great Depression Mystery
Focus: Understanding Economics in U.S. HistoryLesson 30
Whatdunnit?
In the 1920s, jobs were plentiful and the economy was growing and the standard of living was rising.
Between 1920 and 1929 homeownership doubled.
Most home-owning families enjoyed amenities such as electric lights and flush toilets.
60% of all households had cars, up from 26%.
More teenagers were attending high school.
Whatdunnit?
By 1933… One fourth of the labor
forces was unemployed. Families were losing
their homes and many were going hungry.
Adolescents who should be in school were riding around the country in freight cars, looking for jobs.
Whatdunit?
What happened?• The United states possessed the same
productive resources in the 1930s as it had in the 1920s.
• Great factories and productive machinery were still present.
• Workers had the same skills and were willing to work just as hard.
• How could life have become so miserable for so many in such a short period of time?
1920s
Prosperity of the 1920s was based largely on purchases of homes and cars.
Toward the end of the decade sales began to decline.
End of the 1920s
Machinery workers stand. Car sales people stand. Auto workers stand. Steel workers stand. Construction workers stand. Furniture sellers stand. Furniture workers stand. Clothing sellers stand. Restaurant workers stand. Grocery workers stand.
1929
Normally, people start buying again as automobiles wear out and incomes improve.
Expansion Begins Again
Machinery workers sit. Car sales people sit. Auto workers sit. Steel workers sit. Construction workers sit. Furniture sellers sit. Furniture workers sit. Clothing sellers sit. Restaurant and grocery
workers sit. Grocery workers sit.
What Are the Alleged Causes of the Great Depression?
The Stock Market Crash of October 29, 1929. Excessive borrowing to purchase stocks and
consumer goods. Overproduction of goods and services High tariffs which prevented imports and hurt
exports. Low farm prices and low wages, leading to an
uneven distribution of income.
Why did a mild recession in 1929 become the Great Depression of the 1930s? A Hint
Its mainly about money, banks, and the Federal Reserve System
How is Money Created?
Banks are not just businesses.
Hint: Banks Create Money100% Reserves
Assets Liabilities
Reserves $100.00 Deposits $100.00
Loans
Hint: Banks Create MoneyBank 1: 10% Reserves
Assets Liabilities
Reserves $10.00 Deposits $100.00
Loans $90.00
Hint: Banks Create MoneyBank 2: 10% Reserves
Assets Liabilities
Reserves $9.00 Deposits $90.00
Loans $81.00
The Fed
The Federal Reserve System was created in 1913.
The Fed has 4 partsBoard of Governors (Washington D.C.)Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)Reserve Banks (12 members)Member Banks
Conducting Monetary Policy
Inflation: Enemy Number 1
The Federal Reserve System has 3 tools to control inflation:
1. Sets reserve requirements for banks. Raise reserve requirement = reduce
money supply Lower reserve requirement = increase
money supply
Conducting Monetary Policy
2. Manages the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
The FOMC sets a target rate for the Federal Funds rate. This is the rate for loans made from bank to bank.
This is almost always what the media is referring to when it says the Federal Reserve "changing interest rates".
To increase the money supply, the Fed instructs the Open Market Desk at the New York Fed to buy bonds to try and hit the target rate.
To decrease the money supply, the Fed instructs the Open Market Desk at the New York Fed to sell bonds.
Conducting Monetary Policy
3. Sets the discount rate for members who borrow money from the Fed.
Banks can borrow funds to keep up their required reserves is by taking a loan from the Fed Reserve at the discount window.
The discount rate is usually higher than the federal funds rate.
Raise discount rate = reduce money supply Lower discount rate = increase money supply
Visual 30.2 Number of U.S. Banks Closing Temporarily or Permanently, 1920-1933
Year Number of Bank Closings
1920 168
1921 505
1922 367
1923 646
1924 775
1925 618
1926 976
1927 669
1928 499
1929 659
1930 1352
1931 2294
1932 1456
1933 4004
Visual 30.3 Money in Circulation
Year
Money in Circulation*
1929 $26.2
1930 $25.1
1931 $23.5
1932 $20.2
1933 $19.2
*Currency plus bank deposits, in billions of dollars.
Why Did the Fed Fail to Act?
1. The Board of Governors believed that many banks were unsound.
2. They wished to protect the value of the dollar by keeping interest rates high.
3. They wished to protect the nation against inflation which they thought was the main problem.
“We Did It.”
In 2002, at Milton Friedman’s 90th birthday Ben Bernanke, then Federal Reserve Board Governor, said:
“ I would like to say to Milton and Anna: Regarding the Great Depression, you were right, we did it. We’re very sorry. But thanks to you, we won’t do it again.”
The Crash of 08
After 24 Consecutive Quarters of Growth…
The Cliff
And then we went off the cliff.
House Price Change
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
Default Rate
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
Foreclosure Rate
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
1.4%
Doubling of Household Debt as a Share of Income
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
Consumption
Causes of the Crash of 08?
The likely suspects:The erosion of
government regulations of conventional lending standards.
The Fed’s manipulation of interest rates during 2002-2006.
Causes of the Crash of 08?An SEC Rule change
adopted in April 2004 led to highly leveraged lending practices by investment banks and their quick demise when default rates increased.
Doubling of the Debt/Income Ratio of Households since the mid-1980s.
Is It 1929 All Over Again?
Primary causes of the Great Depression were:
Poor monetary policy Reduced money supply High interest rates Failure of Fed to act
Poor fiscal Policy Tax increase to balance the
budget Increasing protectionism
Smoot-Hawley tariff
Banks Are Not Lending
Today, the problem is not liquidity per se.
Many banks are holding Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) and other bad paper.
Who do you trust?
So far …
Actions taken so far have been mainly aimed at increasing liquidity and spending rather than getting rid of bad assets.
What are the Characteristics of Money?
Medium of exchangeStandard of valueStore of value
What is Money?
M1CurrencyChecking accounts (63%)
M2: add inSavings accountsCDsMoney market accounts
Jobs of the Fed
Services to Banks Check clearing Loans to member
banks Services to
Government Federal checkbook Federal deposits Supervise members
banks
Conduct monetary policy Managing the
nation’s money supply.
Auction
Distribute 10 “dollars” in envelops to the class. Ask them to count the money but do not stress the amount they have.
Auction off one or two items (T-shirts?), recording the prices. Figure the average price.
Distribute 20 “dollars” to the class. Auction off one or two more items, recording
the prices. Figure the average price. Explain the price change according to the
amount of money in circulation.
Activity 30.3 What Would You Have Done?
1. The world financial system that emerged after World War I was based upon the gold standard. The United States and Great Britain guaranteed that they would exchange their currencies for gold at a fixed rate ($20.67) for an ounce of gold. Other major countries agreed to exchange their currencies for
gold, dollars or pounds. In 1927, several countries, most notably Germany and
Austria, experienced serious bank runs. To stabilize their currencies, they exchanged their dollars and pounds for gold. The United States experienced a serious loss of gold
To encourage foreign investors to buy American investments, the Federal Reserve Banks raised interest rates.
If you were an American business owner planning to build a new factory or buy new equipment, what would you have done after interest rates were increased?
Activity 30.3 What Would You Have Done?
2. The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates after a time, but in 1930 and 1931, when the American economy had already taken a downturn, more bank runs occurred in many countries, and again gold flowed out of the United States. To keep gold in the United States, the Federal Reserve Banks
again raised interest rates. What was the result?
Activity 30.3 What Would You Have Done?
3. Now imagine that you are an American citizen with a bank account. You read the newspapers. You see that banks are collapsing
in other countries and that the rate of bank failures in the United States has risen.
What might you do?
Activity 30.3 What Would You Have Done?
4. In 1932 Congress creates the Reconstruction Finance Corporation (RFC), which lends money to businesses that are in trouble, including banks. The law requires that the names of banks receiving loans
from the RFC must be published. You read in the newspaper that the bank in which your money
is deposited is receiving help from the RFC. What are you likely to do?
Overview
Overview of Focus: Understanding Economics in U.S. History
Demonstration of Lesson 30: Causes of the Great Depression
Implications for today
Today’s Stock Market Report
Paper stocks were stationary.
Fluorescent tubing dimmed in light trading.
Knives were up sharply. Elevators rose, while
escalators continued their slow decline.
Mining equipment hit rock bottom.
Diapers remain unchanged.
Today’s Stock Market Report
Coca Cola fizzled. Caterpillar stock inched
up a bit. Balloon prices were
inflated. Scott Tissue touched a
new bottom. And batteries exploded
in an attempt to recharge the market...
Table of Contents
Unit 1 Three World Meet
Unit 2: Colonization and Settlement
Unit 3: Revolution and the New Nation
Unit 4: Expansion and Reform
Unit 5: Civil War and Reconstruction
Table of Contents
Unit 6: The Development of the Industrial United States
Unit 7: The Emergence of Modern America
Unit 8: The Great Depression and World War II
Unit 9: Postwar United States
Unit 10: Contemporary United States
Federal Reserve Banks
New York Boston Philadelphia Richmond Atlanta Cleveland
Minneapolis Chicago St. Louis Kansas City Dallas San Francisco
Job Number One for the FED
Conduct monetary policy Managing the
nation’s money supply.