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Brian Seal
Technical Executive
EPRI ICCS European Engagement
Summit
April 28th, 2015
AMI System
Prognostics and
Health ManagementAdvanced Metering 161F
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• Recent irreversible industry shift from electro-
mechanical to solid-state electricity meters
• Significantly shorter and less-known wear-out
characteristics, all meters the same age
• AMI is a major investment, major dependency,
with a multi-year process to plan, implement
system replacement
EPRI Project Goal
• Develop a best-practice guide to AMI system
prognostics and health management
Problem Statement
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Present State of the Industry
• All new deployments, no major
problems yet, but no solid data to
establish expectations
• Searching for methods to use to
gauge system health, unsure of best
methods
• Often not differentiating between
system health and system prognosis
• Difficulty in translating measured
parameters into useful metrics
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Wear Out
Failures Early
Failures
Normal Mid-
Life Failures
Failure
Tolerance
End of Life
Based on What
I can Observe
Now How Much Time
Do I Have Left ?
What Do We Mean by “Prognostics?”The Failure Bathtub Curve
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Utility Best
Practices
Manufacturer
RecommendationsOther
Industries
Reliability
Experts
Test and
Refine Standards
Guidebook Development Approach
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Informative content to teach PHM principles
Specific recommended processes for:
– Sampling
– Accelerated Life Testing (ALT)
– Recurring ALT
– Failed device analysis
– Lab / teardown analysis
– Product self-diagnostics
Next Steps
– Continue to develop the specific processes
– Utilities to adopt / implement the defined processes
– Identify / Contribute to SDOs
– Conduct AMI PHM Business Case Workshop
Present Status: AMI Prognostics Guide Content
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0 2 k 4 k 6 k
ALT Hours of Exposure
8 k0 10 k 12 k
New Products Test
Failu
re R
ate
Shift is Proportional to Used Service Life
PHM Example Process – Recurring ALT
Remaining Life
Aged Products Test
Remaining Life 2
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PHM Example
Process
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Processes Represented in Version 1 Draft
New Design ALT
Failure Modes
Watch-List
Field Experience
Vendor Insights
Recurring ALT
Analysis of Field Failures
Sample-Based Lab Assessments
Continuous Self-Monitoring
PHM Analysis
(Algorithms)
Sampling Method
Remaining Service Life Prediction
Process Improvement
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Group Discussion
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Together…Shaping the Future of Electricity