Download - Allyson Schwartz August Polling Memo

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Schwartz for Governor August 2013

To: Interested PartiesFr: Pete Brodnitz

Date: August 13, 2013Re: Recent Polling Results

This memo summarizes the findings of two polls we have recently conducted. In mid July, we conducteda poll of likely Democratic primary voters and in early August we conducted a poll of likely 2014 generalelection voters. The polls indicate that Allyson Schwartz is leading in both the Democratic primary andthe general election against incumbent Governor Corbett. Even more importantly, she is well positionedto maintain her advantage in both of these contests.

Pennsylvania Democratic PrimaryResults

Schwartz Leads All Candidates In Race For Governor By Double Digits

Congresswoman Allyson Schwartz is leading her opponents in the Democratic primary for governor by adouble digit margin (34% vote for Schwartz, 15% McGinty, 11% Wolf, 10% McCord and 30% areundecided). Schwartz receives more than 60% of the vote in the Philadelphia media market, whichaccounted for nearly 40% of the vote in the 2010 Democratic primary for Governor.

If the May 2014 Democratic primary election for Governor were held today and thecandidates were only, for whom would you vote? [IF DONT KNOW] Whichcandidate do you lean toward?InitB2, LeanB2Ranked by All

AllRegion

Phil PGH Oth

Allyson Schwartz of Montgomery County* 34 61 15 15

Kathleen McGinty of Chester County 15 9 14 23

Tom Wolf of York County 11 6 11 19

Rob McCord of Montgomery County 10 6 12 14

Dont Know 30 17 48 30

Note: regional affiliation appears on the ballot in the Democratic primary.

Schwartz Is The Best Known Candidate In The Race

Almost half (45%) of Democratic primary voters know enough about Schwartz to form an opinion of her,while only about a quarter of primary voters are able to identify her opponents (24% know Wolf, 27%McCord, 26% McGinty). Schwartz advantage in statewide name recognition over McCord is particularly

notable since he is currently holding statewide office.

Allyson

Schwartz

Tom

Wolf

Rob

McCord

Kathleen

McGintyName ID 45 24 27 26

B E N E N S O N S T R A T E G Y G R O U P

1875 I St ree t , N.W., 5 t h F loorWashington, D.C. 20006T E L 2 0 2 3 3 9 6 0 6 0

www.bsgco . com
http://www.bsgco.com/http://www.bsgco.com/http://www.bsgco.com/


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Schwartzs Lead Increases After Voters Hear Positive Profiles Of All the Candidates

After respondents heard one positive profile of four of the candidates, Schwartzs lead increases to 29%over the 2nd place candidate and she is almost at 50% support (46% Schwartz, 17% Wolf, 14% McCord,11% McGinty, and 12% undecided).

Given this, if the May 2014 Democratic primary election forGovernor were held today and the candidates were only..., forwhom would you vote?

All

Allyson Schwartz of Montgomery County 46

Tom Wolf of York County 17

Rob McCord of Montgomery County 14

Kathleen McGinty of Chester County 11

Dont Know 12

Most Voters Say Schwartz Is The Candidate Who Has The Ability To Defeat Corbett

After reading voters a positive profile of each of the candidates, a plurality (36%) say the attribute hasthe ability to defeat Governor Corbettapplies most to Schwartz; followed by McCord (21%), Wolf (19%),and McGinty (9%).

Has the ability to defeat Governor Corbett. Which candidate does this phrase apply mostto?

All

Schwartz 36

McCord 21

Wolf 19

McGinty 9Dont Know 17

The Benenson Strategy Group conducted 800 interviews using live callers across Pennsylvania with likely2014 Democratic primary election voters July 16-18, 2013. The margin of error for overall results is3.46%.


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Pennsylvania General ElectionResults

Schwartz Leads Governor Corbett By 8%; Almost Receives a Majority of Support

The recent results of our survey of 2014 general election voters in Pennsylvania show CongresswomanAllyson Schwartz in a strong position, leading Corbett by 8%. Schwartz receives almost a majority of

vote (49%), while Corbett receives 41%, and 10% are undecided.

If the November 2014 election for Governor were held today, andthe candidates werefor whom would you vote? [IF DONT KNOW]

Which candidate do you lean towards?

All

Difference +8

Democrat Allyson Schwartz 49

Republican Tom Corbett 41

Dont know 10

A Majority of Voters Express Dissatisfaction with Corbett and the Direction of PA

A majority of voters (51%) say Pennsylvania is off on the wrong track and more than half of voters

disapprove of the job Governor Corbett is doing (46% approve, 51% disapprove).

Job Approval* PA Direction*

Difference -4 Difference -19

Approve 46 Right direction 32

Disapprove 50 Wrong track 51

Dont know 3 Dont know 16

*Note: Due to rounding, these numbers dont add to 100%.

Schwartz Clears the 50% Threshold After Voters Hear a Positive Biographical StatementAbout Both Candidates

After respondents heard a positive profile of both candidates, Schwartzs lead increases to 16% overCorbett and she receives the support of a majority of voters; 53% vote for Schwartz, 37% for Corbett,

10% are undecided.

Given this, if the November 2014 election for Governor were heldtoday, for whom would you vote?

All

Difference +16

Democrat Allyson Schwartz 53Republican Tom Corbett 37

Dont know 10


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A Majority Agree With Schwartz On The Issue Of Abortion

We tested a message attacking Schwartz characterizing her record on abortion as well as a statement

that supporters of Schwartz might offer in response. Overall, a majority of voters (51%) say they agreewith supporters of Schwartz, while 33% say they agree with supporters of Corbett. Schwartz even winsthis exchange among white Catholic voters (56% say they agree with supporters of Schwartz, while 29%

say the agree with supporters of Corbett) and among voters living in the Pittsburgh media market (62%say they agree with supporters of Schwartz, while 24% say they agree with supporters of Corbett).

1) Supporters of Tom Corbett say prior to running for Congress, Schwartz ran an abortion clinic in Philadelphia. In

Congress and the State Senate, she has pushed a pro-abortion agenda, including opposing parental notification,supporting partial birth abortions, and voting against the Religious Freedom Act.

2) Supporters of Allyson Schwartz say she helped found the non-profit Elizabeth Blackwell Health Center to provideaccess to quality, affordable health care. While the center did provide legal abortion services, Schwartzs goal was to

reduce the number of abortions by helping women get access to better health care and contraception to avoidunwanted pregnancies.

On a scale of 1 to 5 where (ROTATE) 1 means you strongly agree with supporters of Tom Corbett and 5 means you

strongly agree with supporters of Allyson Schwartz (END ROTATE) on this issue, what number would you pick?

AllRegion White

CatholicsPhil PGH Other

Difference +18 +33 +38 -10 +27

Total Agree with SchwartzNet 5-4 51 58 62 36 56

5 Strongly 33 40 46 19 43

4 17 18 16 17 12

Total Agree with CorbettNet 1-2 33 25 24 46 29

2 10 10 5 13 6

1 Strongly 23 15 20 33 23

Dont Know 3 16 17 14 18 15

The Benenson Strategy Group conducted 600 interviews using live callers across Pennsylvania with likely2014 general election voters August 6-8, 2013. The margin of error for overall results is 4.00%. BSGsPennsylvania experience includes work on behalf of Kathleen Kane, the first woman elected AttorneyGeneral in Pennsylvanias history and work for the DSCC on behalf of Senator Robert Caseys re-electionefforts. Other BSG clients include Senator Tim Kaine (VA), Senator Jeff Merkley (OR), Senator MazieHirono (HI), Congressman Tim Walz (MN) Congressman Adam Smith (WA), and President Juan Manuel

Santos of Colombia. Peter Brodnitz, who conducted this survey, was named Pollster of the Year by theAmerican Association of Political Consultants in 2007 for his work for Governor Kaine (D-VA), Senator JimWebb and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and holds a Masters Degree from the

University of Pennsylvanias Annenberg School of Communication.

Download - Allyson Schwartz August Polling Memo

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