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Alberta Broadcasters Public Alerting Recognition Symposium
Meteorological Decision Making
Image Courtesy Steve Ricketts
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Outline• Alberta Summer Weather
• Weather Centre Operations
• Severe Weather Meteorologist
• Convective warnings
• Decision Making Process
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Photo Courtesy Justin Hobson
Elie Manitoba June 22, 2007
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Alberta Convective Climate
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Annual Alberta Svr Weather EventsYear Hail Wind Tornado Rain Total
2000 56 9 15 1 81
2001 44 7 6 3 60
2002 12 4 3 1 20
2003 70 19 14 1 104
2004 52 17 15 6 90
2005 68 6 9 4 87
2006 83 14 5 4 106
2007 89 37 12 8 146Average 48 12 11 8 79
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Weather Centre OperationsPASPC
• Responsible for Public and Marine Forecasts & Warnings
• Edmonton & Winnipeg split the Responsibility
• Each office 2.4 people shifts, 24hrs per day, 365 days per year
• Automation leveraged• Co located with Aviation
forecast centre – CMAC in Edmonton
PSPCOSPC
PASPCPASPC ASPC
SPC Areas of Responsibility
Graphic Courtesy McCarthy 2007
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Equivalent Areas of ResponsibilityS ize of the PA SP C ’s area of respons ibility
if it w ere in Europe
L a superfi c ie de la region de responsabilite du CP T PA vis -a-vis l’Europe
S ize of the PA SP C’s area of respons ibilityif it w ere in the U nited S tates
(equal to approx . 65-70 U .S . Weather offi c es)
L a superfic ie de la region de responsabilite du CP T PA vis -a-vis les E tats -U nis
(l’equivalent d’environ 65-70 bureaux meteorologiques americ ains)
Graphics Courtesy McCarthy
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Means for Dissemination
• Weatheroffice web site. Most popular Web site in gc.ca domain…
• Specialized media site• WeatherRadio• ATADs• Media Partners• EPWS• Warning Lead time for
supercells/tornados is critical
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Weather Radio Network in Alberta
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Severe Weather Meteorologist• Supervisor on shift • Analysis/Diagnosis/
Prognosis• Highly trained• Convective weather • Radar interpretation• Decision making
Phases of shift• Workup-anticipation• Weather watch• Heat of battle
Bulletins• Thunderstorm
Watches/warnings• Tornado
Watches/warnings
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Radar
• Critical and sophisticated tool• Spirit River, Jimmy Lake
Carvel, Strathmore, Schuler• Measures hydrometeor
intensity and radial motions• Detects rotating storms
(Supercells) but not tornadoes
• Ground reports critical for tornadoes
• Doppler coverage of southern and central Alberta is not continuous
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Decision MakingInformation• Analysis of temp, wind
and moisture• NWP guidance• Radar and satellite
– Monitor boundaries• Lightning detection• Soundings including
aircraft• Weather watchers
Thunderstorm Options
• Watches - When to issue? Where? Type to issue?
• Thunderstorm Warnings – When? Where?
• Difference between a Watch and a Warning?
• Tornado warnings• On busy days numerous
bulletins can be in effect
Photo copyright Neil Taylor
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Decision Making EPWS
• Always Issue for Dangerous Supercells
• Tornado warnings require SPC to trigger EPWS
• Most effective way to deliver message
• Nerve racking task• Practice is key
Info includes storm/tornado location and motion
Preset Forms• Unusually strong
Supercell• Possible tornado
(rotation detected within doppler range)
• Tornado on ground
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Conclusion
• Weather Radio fills an important gap in our dissemination process because said radios can sleep until a programmed watch or warning id is received
• EPWS decisions add to the work load of the forecast team
• However, within Environment Canada’s dissemination network there is no better means to quickly disseminate life threatening severe weather situations than the EPWS
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Copyrighted and courtesy of Brad McLeod
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Why do we activate EPWS?