Air Network and Netted Air Pollution
1Copyright (c) Beihang SEM
Presented by Xueying Yu
The Aero-Econ Team from Beihang University:
Ying Fan, Jinxing Hao, Chunan Wang, Xueying Yu, Junhuan Zhang
ICAO Aviation Data and Analysis Seminar, 11 July 2019, Istanbul
Aviation Air Pollution
2019/7/20 Copyright (c) Beihang SEM 2
Data Source: ICAO Environment Report, 2016
Aviation Air Pollution
⚫ Aircraft jet engines, like many other mobile sources, produce CO2, CO,
unburned hydrocarbons (HC), NOX, VOCs, PM and other trace compounds
⚫ Airport emissions are also affected by emissions from Auxiliary Power Units
(APUs), ground service vehicles, and other ground transportation and power
plants.
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Aviation Air Pollution
4
Source: European Aviation Environmental Report, 2019
Aviation Air Pollution
⚫ Aviation is a significant source of pollutant emission
➢ 3.6% of EU28 greenhouse gas emissions in 2016
⚫ Continuously expanding aviation industry
➢ # of flights increases by 8% during 2014-2017
➢ # of major airports is expected to increase by over 20% during 2017-2040
⚫ While ambient measurements around airports typically show little to no
contribution from airport emissions (Zurich Airport, 2013), recent studies have
shown elevated PM levels near airports (Hudda et al., 2014; Keuken, et al. 2015)
➢ LAX is estimated to be the largest point source of CO emissions in CA, and
the 2nd largest of NOX (Schlenker & Walker, 2016)2019/7/20 Copyright (c) Beihang SEM 5
Air Pollution in China
6Source: Zheng et al., 2018. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Air Pollution Impacts on the Environment and Human Health
⚫ Human health: a well-known cause of cardiovascular and respiratory diseases
➢ Respiratory system diseases: lung disease, lung cancer, aggravated asthma
➢ Cardiovascular system diseases: heart attacks, stroke
➢ Others: low birth weight and preterm delivery
⚫ Agriculture losses
⚫ Forest losses
⚫ Man-made material damages
⚫ Reduced visibility and losses in recreational benefits
•2019/7/20 Copyright (c) Beihang SEM 7
⚫ Each year, over 3,000,000 statistical lives are lost over the world
⚫ Ambient air pollution: A global assessment of exposure and burden of diseases
(WHO, 2016)
➢ Over $ 2.1 billion cost in human health in 2015
➢ The number will count to over $176 billion in 2060
⚫ The economic consequences of outdoor air pollution (OECD, 2016)
➢ Over 1.2 billion lost labor days in 2015
➢ The number will count to over 3.7 billion in 2060
•2019/7/20 Copyright (c) Beihang SEM 8
Air Pollution: A Silent and Costly Killer
Motivation
⚫ The effect of pollution on health remains a highly debated topic
⚫ Health impacts of air pollution are important inputs for air quality regulations
➢ US EPA: PM10 in 1987 and PM2.5 in 1997
➢ China: PM2.5 in 2013
⚫ A lack of systematic evidence of health impacts in developing countries
2019/7/20 Copyright (c) Beihang SEM 9
Objectives
⚫ Quantify the short-term, daily impacts of air pollution on health among
general population (human morbility and mortility)
➢ Address endogeneity in air pollution leveraging the network structure of
airport runway congestion
⚫ Decipher which pollutant is responsible for adverse health outcomes
➢ Rely on the fact that pollutants are emitted at different rates during each
phase of operation, e.g. taking-off and climbing generate high rates of NOX
emission and taxing is usually associated with CO emission
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Air Pollution in China
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3-Year Average PM2.5 from 2013-2015 (𝜇g/m3)
Data Source: www.aqistudy.cn
Airport Delay Minutes during June 2018
Data Source: ICAO ADS-B Database
Airport Runway Congestion in Turkey
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A similar plot as in Page 8 for Turkey airports
Airport Runway Congestion in China
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Airport Runway Congestion in China _ Pollutant Specifics
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Airport Congestion and Air Quality _ Fuzhou
PM2.5 PM10 SO2 NO2 CO*10 线性 (PM2.5) 线性 (PM10) 线性 (SO2) 线性 (NO2) 线性 (CO*10)
Airport Runway Congestion in China _ Northern Hubs
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Airport Congestion and Air Quality _ Hubs in the North
Beijing Shanghai Chengdu Zhengzhou Shenyang
线性 (Beijing) 线性 (Shanghai) 线性 (Chengdu) 线性 (Zhengzhou) 线性 (Shenyang)
Airport Runway Congestion in China _ Southern Hubs
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Airport Congestion and Air Quality _ Hubs in the South
Guangzhou Shenzhen Hangzhou Kunming Nanjing Wuhan Hefei
线性 (Guangzhou) 线性 (Shenzhen) 线性 (Hangzhou) 线性 (Kunming) 线性 (Nanjing) 线性 (Wuhan) 线性 (Hefei)
Airport Runway Congestion in China _ Western Hubs
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Airport Congestion and Air Quality _ Hubs in the West
Lhasa Xining Yinchuan Urumqi Huhhot
线性 (Lhasa) 线性 (Xining) 线性 (Yinchuan) 线性 (Urumqi) 线性 (Huhhot)
Possible Solution: Other Indexes for Airport Congestion
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With well-tuned ADSB data, building multiple Air Congestion Indexes that
reflect different congestion status:
• Idling congestion: total minutes of airplane idling at an airport in each hour
at each airport
• Taxing congestion: total minutes of airplane taxing at an airport in each hour
at each airport
• Hovering congestion: total minutes of airplane low draging at an airport in
each hour at each airport
Instrument Variable: Airport Runway Congestion
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𝑝𝑖𝑡=𝛼1𝐶𝑖𝑡 +𝐖𝑖𝑡𝚽+𝑤𝑒𝑒𝑘𝑑𝑎𝑦𝑡 +𝑚𝑜𝑛𝑡ℎ𝑡 +𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑡 + 𝜈𝑖+𝑒𝑖𝑡Second Stage:
First Stage:
𝐳𝑖𝑡Γ
𝑦𝑖𝑡=𝛽ෞ𝑝𝑖𝑡 + 𝐳𝑖𝑡Π+𝜂𝑖+𝜖𝑖𝑡
𝑦𝑖𝑡: Health condition at location i during period t
ෞ𝑝𝑖𝑡: Fitted air pollution at location i during period t
𝐶𝑖𝑡: Airport congestion at location i during period t
𝐖𝑖𝑡: Weather conditions at location i during period t
𝑝𝑖𝑡: Air pollution at location i during period t
Possible Results: Health Impacts
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Source: Hoek et al., 2013. Environmental Health
Possible Results: Social Cost of Pollution
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Study Hammit, 2006 Wang et al, 2006 Zeng, 2010 Gao, 2015 Wang, 2010 Xu, 2008
Payment
Range (RMB)20-1000 1-2000 0-1000, 0-500 0-15000 0-800
Risk reduction70/10000→
10/10000;
20/10000
20/100000→
15/100000
10/100; 5/1000 90/100000→7
5/10000010/10000
3.44/100000
Estimation RMB 14.3
10/1000:970-
1000元;5/1000:728-
780元
RMB 100-200 RMB 759元 RMB 76.3
VSL $4000-$17000 RMB 286,000RMB 0.8—1.2
million
RMB 0.7-1.3
million
RMB 0.9-2.0
millionRMB 2.2 million
Q&A
Thanks
2019/7/20 22Copyright (c) Beihang SEM
2019-7-11