![Page 1: AGU, 2003 image:AGU 2003 How will the Northeast Atlantic and its living resources respond to global climate change? Nordic Seas Greenland Iceland Norway](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062322/5697bfb71a28abf838c9ed42/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
image:AGU 2003
How will the Northeast Atlanticand its living resources
respond to global climate change?
NordicSeas
Greenland
IcelandNorway
Faroes
Scot-land
Northeast AtlanticBetter predictions for better adaptation
Bogi Hansen, Faroe Marine Research Institute
![Page 2: AGU, 2003 image:AGU 2003 How will the Northeast Atlantic and its living resources respond to global climate change? Nordic Seas Greenland Iceland Norway](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062322/5697bfb71a28abf838c9ed42/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
The Earth
Global climate changeWarming = Energy in – Energy outRegional climate changeWinds and currents move energy
What if theychange ?
![Page 3: AGU, 2003 image:AGU 2003 How will the Northeast Atlantic and its living resources respond to global climate change? Nordic Seas Greenland Iceland Norway](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062322/5697bfb71a28abf838c9ed42/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
NOAA
Mean sea surface temperature
5ºC
60º
60º
5ºC
![Page 4: AGU, 2003 image:AGU 2003 How will the Northeast Atlantic and its living resources respond to global climate change? Nordic Seas Greenland Iceland Norway](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062322/5697bfb71a28abf838c9ed42/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Iceland
Scot- land
NordicSeas
ArcticOcean
Faroes
Cooling
Greenland
North Atlantic
Greenland-Scotland Ridge
Overflow
![Page 5: AGU, 2003 image:AGU 2003 How will the Northeast Atlantic and its living resources respond to global climate change? Nordic Seas Greenland Iceland Norway](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062322/5697bfb71a28abf838c9ed42/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Cold water from the Arctic sinks and spreads throughout the World Ocean
500 – 1000 years
Labrador Sea
The ”Great Conveyor Belt” (MOC, THC)
Antarctic
Cooling
Increasingsalinity
Freshwater
IPCC-2007:it is very likely that the North Atlantic MOC will slow down during the 21st century
![Page 6: AGU, 2003 image:AGU 2003 How will the Northeast Atlantic and its living resources respond to global climate change? Nordic Seas Greenland Iceland Norway](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062322/5697bfb71a28abf838c9ed42/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Measurements
![Page 7: AGU, 2003 image:AGU 2003 How will the Northeast Atlantic and its living resources respond to global climate change? Nordic Seas Greenland Iceland Norway](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062322/5697bfb71a28abf838c9ed42/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
image:AGU 2003
Volume transport of Atlantic inflow Inflowing Atlantic water
(millions m3/second)
No significant trend
Iceland-Faroe inflow since 1992
Greenland-Iceland inflow since 1994
Faroe-Shetland inflow since 1992
![Page 8: AGU, 2003 image:AGU 2003 How will the Northeast Atlantic and its living resources respond to global climate change? Nordic Seas Greenland Iceland Norway](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062322/5697bfb71a28abf838c9ed42/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Labrador Seaconvection
Overflow and Atlantic inflow did probably NOT weaken 1948-2005
But, Labrador Sea convection has been weak since mid-1990s
![Page 9: AGU, 2003 image:AGU 2003 How will the Northeast Atlantic and its living resources respond to global climate change? Nordic Seas Greenland Iceland Norway](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062322/5697bfb71a28abf838c9ed42/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Projected surface warming 2080-2099for A2 scenario (IPCC 2007)
2 – 3 ºC warming
ºC
![Page 10: AGU, 2003 image:AGU 2003 How will the Northeast Atlantic and its living resources respond to global climate change? Nordic Seas Greenland Iceland Norway](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062322/5697bfb71a28abf838c9ed42/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Warming 2091-2100 at 200-500 m depth
according to AR4climate models
(Yin et al., 2011)
Average of 19 climate models
Cooling
One model> 3°C warming
Another model> 2°C warming
“No” change MOC model uncertainty remains high in CMIP5 climate models
![Page 11: AGU, 2003 image:AGU 2003 How will the Northeast Atlantic and its living resources respond to global climate change? Nordic Seas Greenland Iceland Norway](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062322/5697bfb71a28abf838c9ed42/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
With warming, fish stocks tend to move towards colder areas
But, changing currents may be more important
Whither the fish
?
![Page 12: AGU, 2003 image:AGU 2003 How will the Northeast Atlantic and its living resources respond to global climate change? Nordic Seas Greenland Iceland Norway](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062322/5697bfb71a28abf838c9ed42/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Artist:Glynn GorickThe marine ecosystem
King Cod
![Page 13: AGU, 2003 image:AGU 2003 How will the Northeast Atlantic and its living resources respond to global climate change? Nordic Seas Greenland Iceland Norway](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062322/5697bfb71a28abf838c9ed42/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
What will happen to King Cod ?
Temperatureand currents
Phytoplankton
Air temperature
Rain
WindLight
Clouds
![Page 14: AGU, 2003 image:AGU 2003 How will the Northeast Atlantic and its living resources respond to global climate change? Nordic Seas Greenland Iceland Norway](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062322/5697bfb71a28abf838c9ed42/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Ocean acidification
CO2
H2CO3 HCO3 + H+-
CO3 + 2H+--
H+ + CO3 HCO3 ---
![Page 15: AGU, 2003 image:AGU 2003 How will the Northeast Atlantic and its living resources respond to global climate change? Nordic Seas Greenland Iceland Norway](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062322/5697bfb71a28abf838c9ed42/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
The living conditions for fish in the Northeast Atlantic
will, no doubt,change dramatically
But, HOW?