Adaptation to tion to Climate Change and ange and
the World Bankd Bank
Adaptation to tion to Climate Change and ange and
the World Bankd Bank
Ian Noble Ian Noble
The poor will face the greatest challenges from climate change.
0%
20%
40%
60%
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100%
1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s
Pe
rce
nta
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aff
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ted
LDC
Dev'ing
CIT
Dev'ed
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1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s
Nu
mb
er
aff
ec
ted
(M
illio
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)
Dev'ed
CIT
Dev'ing
LDC
2 Billion people in developing countries affected by a climate related disaster in the 1990s.
Double in the 2000s?
40 to 80% of the population in developing countries versus a few % in more developed countries
Guidance for TNA
Identify vulnerable sectorsIdentify vulnerable sectors
Prioritise the Prioritise the list of measureslist of measures
Compile list of measuresCompile list of measures
PrioritisePrioritise
Developing
Country
Development decision
Other Lenders
& Donors
World Bank
Local social, economic, environmental and political
pressures
Climate Climate ChangeChange
Most development decisions
Investment flow
Billions $ "invested" in developing countries annually
0 50 100 150 200 250
Private
ODA
WB
IDA
Mitigation
Adaptation
0 2 4 6 8 10
UN
FC
CC
U
NF
CC
C
Climate change is already affecting natural and social systems
Messages to my Bank Messages to my Bank colleaguescolleagues
And is relevant to project planning
Implicit: “And your project could be next!”
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0
1982
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year
%
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-20
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-5
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5
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25
rainfall variability
GDP growth
Ag GDP growth
EthiopiaA water rich developing country, but
with GDP still tied to yearly
rainfall variations
Preliminary results from : A Country Water Resources Assistance Strategy for Ethiopia
From Claudia Sadoff
Climate variability is already a major impediment to development.
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GDP Growth rate Ag GDP Non-Ag GDP
An
nu
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ates
Smoothed
Drought
Variability
Model of 12 years of growth using
•Smoothed (average rainfall)
•A simulated 2-year drought
•Realistic variability
Including climate variability gives a different picture of growth prospects
Ethiopia
1%1%
GDP Growth w/Smoothed Rainfall
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Base Irrig. Roads Irri&Roads
An
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row
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GDP grow th rate
Ag GDP grow th rate
NAg GDP grow th rate
GDP Growth w/Variable Rainfall
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Base Irrig. Roads Irri&RoadsA
nn
ual
Gro
wth
GDP grow th rate
Ag GDP grow th rate
NAg GDP grow th rate
EthiopiaUsing variable rainfall gives a more
balanced outcome for investments in irrigation versus roads
Climate change is a development issue – right nowright now
Should we use the term “climate
proofing”?
A climate risk approachClimate risk management means that the
Bank should assess,
and where necessary act upon,
the threats and opportunities that result from
both existing and future climate variability,
including those deriving from climate change,
in all project and country level activities.
Sub text: Climate volatility is Sub text: Climate volatility is another factor that must be another factor that must be
taken into account in taken into account in development planningdevelopment planning
How are we going?
Currently only
17 out of 73 CASs and
4 out of 35 completed PRSPs
refer to the potential effects of climate change.
Of the 17 CASs only 8 have a clear statement about adaptation
Pitfalls• “Projectisation” of adaptation
– Separates adaptation form core development planning
– Often embroils adaptation in institutional rivalries
• Not appreciating the immediacy• Endless loop of “better
information”– Downscaling & impact modelling
• Seeking the ideal at the expense of the pragmatic– E.g. Seeking only ‘adaptation with mitigation’
synergies
Next steps
• Improve tools available to project managers – within Bank and in client countries
• Pilot projects to gain practical experience in mainstreaming adaptation
• Move climate variability and change issues into planning tools such as CEA
Next steps
• Improve tools available to project managers – within Bank and in client countries– Simple screening tool– Readily available tools for ‘downscaling’ and impact
assessment– Linking the biophysical and the socio-economic
analyses
• Pilot projects to gain practical experience in mainstreaming adaptation
• Move climate variability and change issues into planning tools such as CEA
Structure of AP Analysis
Hydrological data
Meteorological data
Agricultural data
Agro-meteorological model
Crop yield and production, livestock losses model
Drought mitigation strategies
Probabilistic drought risk assessment model
Direct agricultural loss estimates
Macro Economic analysis
Direct and indirect
economic losses
State fiscal exposure
Risk financing arrangements
Rainfall simulator
Climate change scenarios
Planting areas model
Hydrological model
Next steps
• Improve tools available to project managers – within Bank and in client countries
• Pilot projects to gain practical experience in mainstreaming adaptation– Effective use of GEF resources– These are critical “pump priming” funds
• Move climate variability and change issues into planning tools such as CEA
Next steps
• Improve tools available to project managers – within Bank and in client countries
• Pilot projects to gain practical experience in mainstreaming adaptation
• Move climate variability and change issues into planning tools such as Country Assistance Strategies (CASs) and PRSPs– Approach with caution– Let’s provide the “carrots” first (e.g. the tools etc)
before appearing to threaten with a “stick”
Next steps
• Improve tools available to project managers – within Bank and in client countries
• Pilot projects to gain practical experience in mainstreaming adaptation
• Move climate variability and change issues into planning tools such as CEA
Ultimately climate volatility should be treated as other volatilities (commodity prices, exchange rates, social volatilities etc) in development planning
A Screening & Design Tool A Screening & Design Tool for Considering Adaptation to for Considering Adaptation to
Climate ChangeClimate Change
Screening & design tool
• Target Audience: Project developers (national, bilateral and multilateral) and assessors; NGOs
• Not community level decision making– This is a different, and
critically important task– Seek compatibility and
synergies
Contact Ian Noble World Bank [email protected]
• Purpose: Provide a first, quick check of potential issues that might arise in project design or implementation
• Provide a lead into appropriate knowledge & experience
• Increase awareness of the issues of climate variability and change
Screening & design tool
• Levels of advice provided– Red flagRed flag – adaptation
issues are important and further follow up is strongly recommended
– Yellow flag Yellow flag – some concerns, which should be checked
– Orange Orange – Not enough known to assess
– Green flagGreen flag – No adaptation issues foreseen
– Blue flagBlue flag – Positive action for adaptation
Contact Ian Noble World Bank [email protected]
• Based on existing knowledge
• Captured via expert systems to identify key activities that might be sensitive to climate variability & change
• Qualitative climate change data based combining models and current trends
• Qualitative assessment of risks and opportunities
• Pointers to appropriate literature, projects, tolls and experts
A framework for a screening & design tool
User Guidance on risk avoidance and adaptation
options
What do project managers need?
A framework for a screening & design tool
User Guidance on risk avoidance and adaptation
options
Good Practice
Interpretation
Bring together the expanding database of information
Additional tools
Document database
Project database Experts
A framework for a screening & design tool
User Guidance on risk avoidance and adaptation
options
Provide a screening tool to guide user to appropriate material
Additional tools
Document database
Project database Experts
Risk elements
&Location
Direction of climate change
(increase, no change, decrease, unknown)
Activities
Climate sensitivi
ty
Climate paramete
r
(eg average rainfall, rainfall variability, temperature etc)
Climate sensitivity for an
activity
Climate paramet
erLo
cati
on
Projected direction of
climate change
Technical complexity –
Multiple models – changing
data bases
A framework for a screening & design tool
User Guidance on risk avoidance and adaptation
options
Based on best expert advice?
Additional tools
Document database
Project database Experts
Risk elements
&Location
Direction of climate change
(increase, no change, decrease, unknown)
Activities
Climate sensitivi
ty
Climate paramete
r
(eg average rainfall, rainfall variability, temperature etc)
Climate sensitivity for an
activity
Climate paramet
erLo
cati
on
Projected direction of
climate change
Selected scenarios
and current trends
Expert assessment of
relevant activities
Expert ass
essment o
f
sensit
ivities
A framework for a screening & design tool
User Guidance on risk avoidance and adaptation
options
What does the user see?
Additional tools
Document database
Project database Experts
Risk elements
&Location
Direction of climate change
(increase, no change, decrease, unknown)
Activities
Climate sensitivi
ty
Climate paramete
r
(eg average rainfall, rainfall variability, temperature etc)
Climate sensitivity for an
activity
Climate paramet
erLo
cati
on
Projected direction of
climate change
Relevant Relevant guidance guidance to …to …
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gdfsgfd
gdfsgfd
gdfsgfd
Leading to …
A series of questions
about their
project
Users are asked to identify the location of their project.
This can either be via lat-long coordinates or pointing to a map
The underlying climate change data base will be based on expert assessment of the various models and of recent trends.
A composite map representing climate change for each variable over the next 20 to 30 years will be prepared.
RptClim
Climate SummaryAnnual rainfall
Rainfall variability
Annual temperature
To be added
To be added
RptOutC Flag Activity Code
We have identified the following activities in your project that may be sensitive to climate change: Explanation
Fla
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clim
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Be
st P
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Fla
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clim
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chan
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cur
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R
A_AS_Seas planting seasonal crops, fruit, vegetables or herbs.
The rainfall is expected to change in either amount or variability at the site of your project. You should check whether current crops and any planned introductions will remain suitable in the changed climate. ..... Higher temperatures are expected at the site of your project. You should check whether current crops and any planned introductions will remain suitable in the changed climate.
R R Y
RA_ir_Tank construction of earthen dams or
tanks.Your project site is projected to have increased rainfall and/or increased rainfall variability. Ensure that the design of the check dams and or eathern dams (tanks) will cope with heavier flows of water.
R R Y
Y
A_ir_drip drip irrigation. Your project site is projected to have significantly increased rainfall variability. This could lead to extended dry spells. Drip irrigation is a very valuable coping mechanism, but note that if water supplies fail, then extended periods without use can lead to deterioration and blockage of the drip system. Discuss appropriate designs with irrigation engineers.
Y Y G
Y
A_ir_flood flood irrigation. You are planning flood irrigation, but temperatures are projected to increase significantly at your project site. The higher temperatures will increase evaporative losses and probably demand for water by the crops. Reconsider more efficient irrigation systems such as drip or sprinkler.
Y Y Y
Y
A_ir_ShallowWell construction of shallow ground wells. Your project site is projected to have decreased rainfall and/or increased rainfall variability. This may reduce recharge rates to shallow wells. You should take this into account in considering whether more shallow wells are justified within the region.
Y Y G
Project
Run Northern Regions Version 2
No significant change in annual rainfall is expected
Rainfall variability is expected to increase moderately This will result in more frequent periods of unusually wet or dry conditions.
Annual mean temperatures are expected to increase moderately (e.g. by 0.5 to 1 °C by 2050).
NOTE: The coding to identify the location and best climate projections has NOT yet been implemented in this prototype.Summary of climate projections for your site ...
Indian Agricultural Reconstruction
Printed summary
Y A_ir_drip drip irrigation.
Your project site is projected to have significantly increased rainfall variability. This could lead to extended dry spells. Drip irrigation is a very valuable coping mechanism, but note that if water supplies fail, then extended periods without use can lead to deterioration and blockage of the drip system. Discuss appropriate designs with irrigation engineers.
Author & Date Source Title Summary Location37 Srivastava, R.C. and
Upadhayaya, A. 1998Agricultural Water Management, Vol. 36Pp: 71-83
Study on Feasibility of Drip Irrigation in Shallow Groundwater Zones of Eastern India
The authors discuss some factors affecting the economics of drip irrigation in plain areas of Eastern India with good quality groundwater at shallow depths. They found that no criteria were being used for drip irrigation in this area, other than subsidy and interest on part of the farmer. Through a study of sugarcane, they identified yield grain ratio, electricity charges, irrigation requirement and depth of groundwater as important factors affecting application method.
.\KB - Sci lit India\Feasibility_drip_irrigation_SrivastavaRC&UpadhayayaA_AgWaterMngmnt_Vol36_Issue1_1998.pdf
Y A_ir_flood flood irrigation.
You are planning flood irrigation, but temperatures are projected to increase significantly at your project site. The higher temperatures will increase evaporative losses and probably demand for water by the crops. Reconsider more efficient irrigation systems such as drip or sprinkler.
Author & Date Source Title Summary Location3 Goyal, R.K. 2004 Agricultural Water
Management, Vol. 69. Pp. 1-11Sensitivity of Evapotransipiration to Global Warming: A Case Study of Arid Zone of Rajasthan
The author studied the effects of change in temperature, solar radiation, windspeed and vapor pressure on evapotranspiration in arid areas of Rajasthan. Based on the research, he suggests roughly a 14% increase in total ET demand with a 20% increase in temperature. Evapotranspiration seemed to be less sensitive, however, to net changes in solar radiation, windspeed, and vapor pressure.
.\KB - Sci lit India\Sensitivity_evapotranspiration_global_warming_Rajasthan_GoyalRK_AgWtrManmt_69_2004.pdf
57 Hillel, D. 2000 World Bank No. 20842Pgs: 92
Salinity Management for Sustainable Irrigation: Integrating Science, Environment and Economics
This report discusses the ways in which poor irrigation and drainage practices can result in waterlogging and salinity. It looks at salinity control and waterlogging reduction as well as at early warning systems that can detect incipient land degradation. The paper emphasizes that irrigation can only be sustainable when used in the proper circumstances with appropriate measures.
.\KB - General\Salinity_management_irrigation_Hillel_WB_20842_2000.pdf
YA_ir_ShallowWell
construction of shallow ground wells.
Your project site is projected to have decreased rainfall and/or increased rainfall variability. This may reduce recharge rates to shallow wells. You should take this into account in considering whether more shallow wells are justified within the region.
Author & Date Source Title Summary Location4 Shah, T. and Raju,
K.V. 2001Water Policy, Vol. 3. Pp. 521-536.
Rethinking Rehabilitation: Socio-ecology of Tanks in Rajasthan
Regarding plans to rehabilitate 1200 large tanks in Rajasthan, the authors believe a change in thinking is required from viewing tanks as irrigation structures to seeing them as multi-use socio-ecological constructs. In recognizing various stakeholder groups, their social value is likely to increase.
.\KB - Sci lit India\Rethinking_tank_rehabilitation_ShahT&RajuKV_WaterPolicy_3_2001.pdf
5 Sharma, A. 2003 International Water management Institute (IWMI), Working Paper 62.Pgs: 16
Revitalizing Irrigation Tanks: Empirical Findings from Ananthapur District, Andhra Pradesh
The study assesses the reasons behind the decline of tank irrigation in Andhra Pradesh. The author claims that most current tank irrigation projects – including those carried out by the World Bank – are promoting a culture of community-based management that diverges from traditional, historic patterns of tank use. He believes that innovative ideas and solutions need to be considered, and that tanks should be viewed as more than flow irrigation structures.
.\KB - Sci lit India\Revitalizing_irrigation_tanks_SharmaA_IWMI_WorkingPaper_62.pdf
19 Selvarajan, S. 2001 Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR)Pgs: 7
Sustaining India's Irrigation Infrastructure
This paper provides a brief overview of the status of canal, tank and groundwater irrigation in India. The author claims that the deterioration of irrigation infrastructure can be improved through stakeholder participation and institutional development.
.\KB - General\Sustaining_India_irrigation_infrastructure_ICAR_PolicyBrief15_2001.pdf
24 Sakurai, T. and Palanisami, K. 2001
Agricultural Economics, Vol. 25Pp: 273-283
Tank Irrigation Management as a Local Common Property: the Case of Tamil Nadu, India
This study uses twelve sample villages in Tamil Nadu to compare the efficiency of rice production between tank irrigation and well irrigation systems, and thus arrive at an appropriate management scheme for water. The analysis indicates that producers will use a combination of both tanks and wells, in evolutionary-stable equilibrium, rather than predominantly use one or the other.
.\KB - Sci lit India\Tank_irrigation_managament_SakuraiT&PalanisamiK_AgricEconomics_2001.pdf
Printed list of
documents
Most documents can be displayed
from the Tool
An identified climate
sensitive activity – yellow
flag
An explanation of the rating Useful
documents
R A_AS_Seas
planting seasonal crops, fruit, vegetables or herbs.
The rainfall is expected to change in either amount or variability at the site of your project. You should check whether current crops and any planned introductions will remain suitable in the changed climate. ..... Higher temperatures are expected at the site of your project. You should check whether current crops and any planned introductions will remain suitable in the changed climate.
Author & Date Source Title Summary Location48 World Bank 2004 Project performance
Assessment ReportNo. 29124
Uttar Pradesh Sodic Lands Reclamation Project
The project carried out large-scale reclamation of sodic soils, thereby increasing returns to many small and marginal farmers. Large tracts of agricultural land in the command areas of major canals had become increasingly waterlogged, saline, and alkaline over time. Through provision of effective drainage networks, improved foodgrain and salt-tolerant horticulture production techniques, and land tenure security as an incentive to farmers to participate, the project was able to surpass its physical targets. However, the project faced problems in implementation, partly due to institutional constraints. For various reasons, the project is not likely to be sustainable.
.\KB - WB India\Uttar_Pradesh_sodic_soils_AssmtReprt29124_WB_04.pdf
The tool is being designed and implemented initially in Excel.
It has a number of tools to help users to expand or modify the knowledge base.
Later it will be converted to a web-based script.
The tool and many of the documents will fit on a CD
Adaptation in the Bank
• Climate change is already a threat to development
• A risk management approach (tackle current climate variability and climate change)
• Learn through pilots and ESW• Develop good practice guidance
and tools for project designers• Goal to treat climate volatility as
an essential part of development planning