9th China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fiber Forum
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China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fibre Forum 2012 - Shanghai, 8-9 March 2012
Acrylonitrile& Derivatives
China & OthersSimon GarmstonManaging Director
PCI Acrylonitrile Ltd
China International Acrylonitrileand Acrylic Fibre Forum 2012Shanghai, China8-9 March 2012
China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fibre Forum 2012 - Shanghai, 8-9 March 2012
The PCI Consulting Group
PCI NylonNylon, 6 & 66 Raw Materials,
Nylon Polymer, Nylon Plastics
PCI Film ConsultingPlastic Films, Flexible
Packaging
PCI PETPET Resin for bottles
PCI FibresNylon Fibre,
Polyester Fibre,Natural Fibres, Textiles
PCI Xylenes & Polyesters
Xylenes, Paraxylene,PTA, DMT, EOMEG, EOD’s
Polyester Polymer
PCI AcrylonitrileAcrylonitrile, Acrylic Fibre, ABS/SAN,
Adiponitrile, NB Copolymers, Acrylamide, Hydrogen Cyanide, MMA
PCI Consulting Group
9th China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fiber Forum
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China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fibre Forum 2012 - Shanghai, 8-9 March 2012
� China…
� Derivative Forecast…
� World Supply/Demand Balance…
Agenda
Agenda
� Conclusions…
� World Supply/Demand 2011…
China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fibre Forum 2012 - Shanghai, 8-9 March 2012
ChinaAcrylonitrile Supply/Demand
China
9th China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fiber Forum
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China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fibre Forum 2012 - Shanghai, 8-9 March 2012
Chart 1
thousand tons
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Production Imports
China: Acrylic Fibre Demand
China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fibre Forum 2012 - Shanghai, 8-9 March 2012
Chart 2
thousand tons
0500
10001500200025003000350040004500
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Production Imports
China: ABS/SAN Demand
9th China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fiber Forum
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China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fibre Forum 2012 - Shanghai, 8-9 March 2012
China: Acrylonitrile Demand for Acrylic Fibre
Chart 3
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China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fibre Forum 2012 - Shanghai, 8-9 March 2012
China: Acrylonitrile Demand for ABS
Chart 4
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China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fibre Forum 2012 - Shanghai, 8-9 March 2012
China: Acrylonitrile Demand for Acrylamide
Chart 5
thousand tons
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China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fibre Forum 2012 - Shanghai, 8-9 March 2012
China: Acrylonitrile Demand for NBR
Chart 6
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9th China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fiber Forum
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China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fibre Forum 2012 - Shanghai, 8-9 March 2012
China: Acrylonitrile Demand for Others
Chart 7
thousand tons
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China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fibre Forum 2012 - Shanghai, 8-9 March 2012
China: Acrylonitrile Demand Total
Chart 8
thousand tons
0250500750
1000125015001750
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9th China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fiber Forum
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China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fibre Forum 2012 - Shanghai, 8-9 March 2012
China Acrylonitrile Demand
Chart 9
Acrylic FibreABS/SANAdiponitrileAcrylamideNB CopolymersCarbon PrecursorMiscellaneous
Total
2008
566337
0135
280
39
1105
2009
650413
0229
421
44
1379
change2011/2010
+ 23- 35
0+ 40+ 18+ 1+ 3
+ 50
2010
616498
025063
248
1477
-14.3%
2011
639463
0290813
51
1527
+24.7% +7.1% +3.4%
Thousand Tons
China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fibre Forum 2012 - Shanghai, 8-9 March 2012
China: Acrylonitrile Production
Chart 10
thousand tons
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9th China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fiber Forum
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China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fibre Forum 2012 - Shanghai, 8-9 March 2012
China: Acrylonitrile Net Imports
Chart 11
thousand tons
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China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fibre Forum 2012 - Shanghai, 8-9 March 2012
China Supply/Demand Acrylonitrile
Chart 12
thousand tons
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Installed Capacity Demand
9th China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fiber Forum
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China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fibre Forum 2012 - Shanghai, 8-9 March 2012
China Supply/Demand Acrylonitrile
Chart 13
thousand tons
0250500750
10001250150017502000
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Installed Capacity Speculative Capacity Demand
China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fibre Forum 2012 - Shanghai, 8-9 March 2012
China Conclusions
Chart 14
� Chinese growth in this industry has been amazing.
� 55% of all ABS/SAN is processed in China.
� China now accounts for 30% of world acrylonitrile d emand.
� 45% of all acrylic fibre is processed in China.
� China is evolving towards being a much bigger final consumer of acrylonitrile derivatives, especially i n ABS.
� We are confident of continued strong growth of acrylonitrile derivatives in China.
� New acrylonitrile capacity is needed in China - soon ..!
9th China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fiber Forum
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China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fibre Forum 2012 - Shanghai, 8-9 March 2012
World Acrylonitrile
Supply/Demand
2011
Acrylonitrile 2011
China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fibre Forum 2012 - Shanghai, 8-9 March 2012
World Acrylonitrile Demand
Chart 15
Acrylic FibreABS/SANAdiponitrileAcrylamideNB CopolymersCarbon PrecursorMiscellaneous
Total
2008
17401579308408260
98166
4559
2009
18431686336507260
67165
4864
change2011/2010
- 12- 111+ 35+ 59+ 34+ 17+ 4
+ 26
2010
1821191435555331397
183
5236
-13.4%
2011
18091803
390612347114187
5262
+6.7% +7.6% +0.5%
Thousand Tons
9th China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fiber Forum
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China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fibre Forum 2012 - Shanghai, 8-9 March 2012
Acrylonitrile Demand 2011
Chart 16
� Growth was very strong in H1. Big destocking in H2 .
� Adiponitrile and acrylamide held up well.
� Acrylic Fibre expensive vs Polyester in H1. Less so H2.
� ABS overheated. High stocks of finished goods in China etc.. Huge economic uncertainty in H2.
� NB and Other Uses reasonable growth.
� Carbon Fibre strong despite economic issues.
� Total market up slightly on 2010. Very modest thou gh.
China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fibre Forum 2012 - Shanghai, 8-9 March 2012
Acrylonitrile Capacity Changes 2011
Chart 17
USAWest EuropeChinaTaiwanThailand
TOTAL
+ 15,000 tons+ 25,000 tons+ 77,000 tons+ 25,000 tons+ 15,000 tons
+ 157,000 tons
9th China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fiber Forum
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China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fibre Forum 2012 - Shanghai, 8-9 March 2012
Chart 18
Percent
World Acrylonitrile Capacity Utilisation
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%20
07
2008
2009
2010
2011
China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fibre Forum 2012 - Shanghai, 8-9 March 2012
Acrylic Fibre
Acrylic Fibre
9th China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fiber Forum
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China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fibre Forum 2012 - Shanghai, 8-9 March 2012
Acrylic Fibre - Competitive Fibres
Chart 19
� Polyester / acrylic price gap has been an issue for acrylic demand - substitution. Increased first half - hurt v olume. Decreased second half. Now back to $1.
� Wool prices are very high. Small but positive infl uence on acrylic fibre. Could acrylic fibre substitute?
� PTA will be tight and expensive - supply/demand and paraxylene driven. MEG tightening and more expensi ve. High polyester fibre prices good for acrylic.
� Significant cotton price volatility last 2 years. Direction difficult to understand but likely to stay strong. Good for acrylic. Clearly has helped polyester demand. Acr ylic?
China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fibre Forum 2012 - Shanghai, 8-9 March 2012
Chart 20
US$ per kg
0.500.751.001.251.501.752.002.252.502.753.003.253.50
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~ J
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Polyester Staple Acrylic Staple
Acrylic Fibre vs Polyester
9th China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fiber Forum
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China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fibre Forum 2012 - Shanghai, 8-9 March 2012
0102030405060708090
100110120130140150160
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Acrylic/Polyester Differential
Chart 21
Cents per kg
Acrylic Fibre vs Polyester
Acrylic More Expensive!
China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fibre Forum 2012 - Shanghai, 8-9 March 2012
0
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125
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Acrylic/Polyester Differential
Chart 22
Cents per kg
Acrylic Fibre vs Polyester
Acrylic More Expensive!
9th China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fiber Forum
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China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fibre Forum 2012 - Shanghai, 8-9 March 2012
Chart 23
US$ per kg
0.500.751.001.251.501.752.002.252.502.753.003.253.503.754.004.254.504.755.00
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Polyester Staple Acrylic Staple Cotton
Acrylic vs Polyester vs Cotton
China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fibre Forum 2012 - Shanghai, 8-9 March 2012
Chart 24
US$ per kg
-2.00-1.75-1.50-1.25-1.00-0.75-0.50-0.250.000.250.500.751.00
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Acrylic/Cotton Differential
Acrylic Fibre vs Cotton
Acrylic More Expensive!
Acrylic Less Expensive
9th China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fiber Forum
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China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fibre Forum 2012 - Shanghai, 8-9 March 2012
-50-40-30-20-10
01020304050607080
2002
2003
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Acrylic/Cotton Differential
Chart 25
Cents per kg
Acrylic Fibre vs Cotton
China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fibre Forum 2012 - Shanghai, 8-9 March 2012
Chart 26
US$ per kg
0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.009.00
10.0011.0012.0013.0014.0015.0016.00
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Wool Acrylic
Acrylic Fibre vs Wool
9th China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fiber Forum
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China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fibre Forum 2012 - Shanghai, 8-9 March 2012
Chart 27
US$ per kg
0123456789
101112
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Wool/Acrylic Differential
Acrylic Fibre vs Wool
Wool More Expensive
China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fibre Forum 2012 - Shanghai, 8-9 March 2012
Chart 28
thousand tons
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3500
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Installed Capacity Demand
World Acrylic Fibre Demand
9th China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fiber Forum
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China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fibre Forum 2012 - Shanghai, 8-9 March 2012
Chart 29
Percent
World Acrylic Fibre Utilisation
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%20
02
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
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2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fibre Forum 2012 - Shanghai, 8-9 March 2012
ABS/SAN
ABS/SAN
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China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fibre Forum 2012 - Shanghai, 8-9 March 2012
World ABS/SAN Demand
Chart 30
20003000400050006000700080009000
100001100012000
2002
2003
2004
2005
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2012
2013
2014
2015
Installed Capacity Demand
thousand tons
China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fibre Forum 2012 - Shanghai, 8-9 March 2012
Chart 31
Percent
World ABS/SAN Utilisation
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
9th China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fiber Forum
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China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fibre Forum 2012 - Shanghai, 8-9 March 2012
ABS Capacity Additions 2011-2015
Chart 32
BrazilRussiaSaudi ArabiaChinaIndiaKoreaTaiwanThailand
TOTAL
50,000 tons55,000 tons
140,000 tons1,628,000 tons
98,000 tons70,000 tons
350,000 tons60,000 tons
2,451,000 tons
China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fibre Forum 2012 - Shanghai, 8-9 March 2012
Acrylamide
Acrylamide
9th China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fiber Forum
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China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fibre Forum 2012 - Shanghai, 8-9 March 2012
Chart 33
thousand tons
0100200300400500600700800900
1000110012001300
2002
2003
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2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Installed Capacity Demand
World Acrylamide Demand
China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fibre Forum 2012 - Shanghai, 8-9 March 2012
Chart 34
Percent
World Acrylamide Utilisation
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
9th China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fiber Forum
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China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fibre Forum 2012 - Shanghai, 8-9 March 2012
AAM Capacity Additions 2011-2015
Chart 35
USAEuropeChinaIndia
TOTAL
118,000 tons20,000 tons
170,000 tons38,000 tons
346,000 tons
China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fibre Forum 2012 - Shanghai, 8-9 March 2012
AdiponitrileNB & Others
Adiponitrile & Others
9th China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fiber Forum
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China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fibre Forum 2012 - Shanghai, 8-9 March 2012
Chart 36
thousand tons
0
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50020
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Acrylonitrile Demand for Adiponitrile
China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fibre Forum 2012 - Shanghai, 8-9 March 2012
Chart 37
thousand tons
050
100150200250300350400450
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2015
Acrylonitrile Demand - NB Copolymers
9th China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fiber Forum
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China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fibre Forum 2012 - Shanghai, 8-9 March 2012
Chart 38
thousand tons
050
100150200250300350400
2002
2003
2004
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2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Miscellaneous Carbon Precursor
Acrylonitrile Demand for Others
China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fibre Forum 2012 - Shanghai, 8-9 March 2012
AcrylonitrileSupply/Demand
Acrylonitrile Supply/Demand
9th China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fiber Forum
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China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fibre Forum 2012 - Shanghai, 8-9 March 2012
World Supply/Demand Acrylonitrile
Chart 39
thousand tons
350040004500500055006000650070007500
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Installed Capacity Speculative Capacity Demand
China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fibre Forum 2012 - Shanghai, 8-9 March 2012
Chart 40
Percent
World Acrylonitrile Capacity Utilisation
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
9th China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fiber Forum
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China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fibre Forum 2012 - Shanghai, 8-9 March 2012
World Supply/Demand Acrylonitrile
Chart 41
thousand tons
350040004500500055006000650070007500
2002
2003
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2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Installed Capacity Speculative CapacityOld Demand New Demand
China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fibre Forum 2012 - Shanghai, 8-9 March 2012
Acrylonitrile Capacity 2011 to 2015
Chart 42
� World - Confirmed = 763kt. Speculative = 360kt.
� China - Confirmed = Anqing 130kt, Qilu 23kt, Jilin 6 5kt.
� West Europe - 40kt capacity creep.
� Middle East - 200kt Saudi plant mid-2015 - Speculativ e!
� Thailand - PTT Asahi 185kt. Taiwan - CPDC - 25kt.
� USA - Ascend = 45kt increase.
� China - Speculative = 260kt. Secco/CNOOC/INEOS/Wand a?
� Korea - Tong Suh 245kt new 2013. 15kt expansion.
9th China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fiber Forum
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China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fibre Forum 2012 - Shanghai, 8-9 March 2012
Conclusions
Conclusions
China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fibre Forum 2012 - Shanghai, 8-9 March 2012
Conclusions
Chart 43
� China has become and will continue to be a massive player in the acrylonitrile and derivatives market.
� Acrylic Fibre - 2010/2011 demand stable. Our foreca st remains at 2 million tons.
� World acrylonitrile demand in 2011 was flat. 2012 is expected to see recovery and future growth looks st rong.
� ABS/SAN - 2010 growth was three times GDP. Stock bu ild downstream. 2011 correction. 2012 recovery starts .
� Acrylonitrile Capacity - Broadly balanced market sho rt term. New capacity is needed. China must build.
� Other Derivatives - Good prospects. Acrylamide stro ng. NB positive. Carbon will be big. New capacity comi ng.
9th China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fiber Forum
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China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fibre Forum 2012 - Shanghai, 8-9 March 2012
Simon GarmstonManaging Director
PCI Acrylonitrile Ltd
was presented by
Acrylonitrile& Derivatives
China & Others
China International Acrylonitrileand Acrylic Fibre Forum 2012Shanghai, China8-9 March 2012