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Navigating the change
@The International Potato Center (CIP)
CSI 2010
Lieven ClaessensRoberto Quiroz, Reinhard Simon, Rubi Raymundo,
Adolfo Posadas, Percy Zorogastua
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The three top stories (not all new):
Crop modeling in the context of climate change
Development of potato model GeoSolanum Sweet potato crop model Pest and disease modeling Improving rainfall data in mountains Crop modelers united!
High resolution remote sensing
Stress detection with low cost airborne platforms
Environmental vulnerability assessments
Erosion mapping in the Nile Basin Landslide prediction in Uganda: communicating research results
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Crop modeling in the context of climate change:
Potato model GeoSolanum:
- Currently temperature and solar radiation based
- Water and nutrient limited simulation under development- Limited amount of potato varieties parameterized (mainly Latin American,none for Africa,.)
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Crop modeling in the context of climate change:
Potato & climate:
A. Effect of temperature on the metabolic reaction rate
Reaction Rate%
B. Effect of soil temperature on the emergency rate of
potato plantsOptimal t
Temperature ( C )
EmergencyRate
Temperature ( C )
C. Effect of temperature on photosynthesis andrespiration in potato
Respiration/photosynthesis rates(gCO2 cm
-2 hoja min -1
Totalphotosynthesis
Net
photos
ynthesis
Respiration
Air temperature ( C )
D. Relationship between total dry matter and interceptedsolar energy under different environmental conditions
CummulativeDM(
gcm-2)
Cold weather + waterB = 2.0
Warm weather + waterB = 1.2
Warm weather w/o waterB = 0.8
Intercepted solar radiation
A. Effect of temperature on the metabolic reaction rate
Reaction Rate%
B. Effect of soil temperature on the emergency rate of
potato plantsOptimal t
Temperature ( C )
Emerge
ncyRate
Temperature ( C )
C. Effect of temperature on photosynthesis andrespiration in potato
Respiration/photosynthesis rates(gCO2 cm
-2 hoja min -1
Totalphotosynthesis
Net
photos
ynthesis
Respiration
Air temperature ( C )
D. Relationship between total dry matter and interceptedsolar energy under different environmental conditions
CummulativeDM(
gcm-2)
Cold weather + waterB = 2.0
Warm weather + waterB = 1.2
Warm weather w/o waterB = 0.8
Intercepted solar radiation
Temperature Requirements:
mean daily temperatures 18 to 20C
night temperature below 15C(required for tuber initiation)
temperatures below 10C and above
30C inhibit tuber growth
Water Requirements:
500 to 700 mm for a 120 to 150 dgrowing season
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Crop modeling in the context of climate change:
Potato model GeoSolanum:
- Potential potato production:
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Crop modeling in the context of climate change:
Potato model GeoSolanum:- Potential number of growing seasons in CIP target countries:
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Crop modeling in the context of climate change:
Potato model GeoSolanum:- Productivity changes with frost tolerant potato variety:
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Crop modeling in the context of climate change:
Potato modeling with FAO EcoCrop (optimal T and R range):- Suitability changes with heat tolerant potato (25to 28) in East Africa:
Current climate2050 climate
2050 climate
Heat tolerant
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Crop modeling in the context of climate change:
Sweet Potato crop model
- Ready for 4 Latin American varieties- Destructive trials for 4 African varieties ongoing in Kiboko, Kenya
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Crop modeling in the context of climate change:
Pest and disease modeling
- For important potato pests with climate dependent life cycles/spreading:Late Blight, Bacterial Wilt, Tuber Moth, Yellow Vein Virus,
- Nothing for sweet potato yet
- Challenge: link pest model results (severity, number of sprays,..) to crop
growth simulation (yield effects).
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B
A
Crop modeling in the context of climate change:
Pest and disease modeling- Climate scenarios for potato tuber moth:
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Crop modeling in the context of climate change:
Pest and disease modeling- Risk mapping for potato yellow vein virus:
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Improving Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) rainfall estimates in mountainswith Inverse Discrete Wavelet Transform methodology
Quiroz et al., in press, Environmental Modeling and Software
Crop modeling in the context of climate change:
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High resolution Remote Sensing Stress detection:
- Low cost air-borne platforms for high resolution RS- Spectral signatures of disease symptoms
- Early warning applications (e.g. drought)
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8/9/2019 Aagw2010 June 09 Lieven Claessens Navigating the Change at Cip
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Normal irrigation
Terminal drought
0-0.10.1-0.2
0.2-0.30.3-0.40.4-0.50.5-0.6
NDVI
Fresh yield (t/ha)24
Drought detection
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Stress detection: potato yellow vein virus (distinct spectral signature)
E i l V l bili A
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Environmental Vulnerability Assessments:
- Modeling scenarios of agricultural intensification and climate change
Soil erosion in the Nile Basin (with ILRI): hotspots of vulnerability
E i t l V l bilit A t
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Environmental Vulnerability Assessments:
- Modeling scenarios of agricultural intensification and climate change
Landslide hazard mapping in Uganda:
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1st of March 2010
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1st of March 2010
?
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Navigating the change:
Crop modeling in the context of climate change Ongoing collaborations, with funding (Global Futures, CCAFS)!
High resolution remote sensing
Not limited to (sweet)potato: MP5? Environmental vulnerability assessments
Other centers doing this (e.g. IWMI flooding, CIAT-TSBF soil fertility,ICRISAT drought mapping, ILRI water productivity, )? More?
MP5?
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THANK YOU