A Tool to Support the Development & Evaluation of State Unit of Aging
Programs & Projects
A Tool to Support the Development & Evaluation of State Unit of Aging
Programs & Projects
John A. McLaughlin
Logic Modeling:Logic Modeling:
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My Aim TodayMy Aim Today
Orient you to a different way to think about conceptualizing and telling the performance story of your State Unit on Aging (SUA) programs and projects
Provide a simple tool for creating a functional picture of how your SUA works to achieve its aims
Offer some helpful hints for framing a useful performance measurement and evaluation strategy for your SUA.
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BeliefsBeliefs
Social Advocacy
• Client/customer focus
The right to be part of a well run program
Program Staff Advocacy
• Managing for Results
Nobody gets it right the first time out!
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Themes You’ll Hear TodayThemes You’ll Hear Today
GOOD MANAGEMENT
• Relevance• Quality• Performance
Connections
Evidence
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More WordsMore Words
Goals -- Impacts Objectives
• Outcome -- changesShort-term (proximal)Intermediate (distal)
• SupportingResourcesActivitiesOutputs: productivity and reach
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PERFORMANCE MANAGEMENTPerformance management includes activities to ensure that goals are consistently being met in an effective and efficient manner. Performance management tools include logic models, performance measurement and program evaluation.
Logic Model
Tool/framework that helps identify the program/project resources, activities, outputs customers, and outcomes.
Performance Measurement
Helps you understand what
level of performance is achieved by the program/project.
Program Evaluation
Helps you understand and
explain why you’re seeing the program/project
results.
PERFORMANCE MANAGEMENT TOOLSPERFORMANCE MANAGEMENT TOOLS
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Logic Models as RecipesLogic Models as Recipes
Recipes have 3 essential components!
A good cook follows the recipe – program staff would do well to create & follow their recipe for success!
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Logic Models as MapsLogic Models as Maps
If you were going on a trip, what would be the first question you need to answer?
Then, what tool would you need?
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Recipes & Maps are used for:Recipes & Maps are used for:
Planning
Communicating
Performance Measurement and Evaluation
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Level I Logic ModelLevel I Logic Model
RESULTS / IMPACTWhy you are in
Business!
YOUR PROGRAMWhat you do to achieve your
long-term aims!
RESOURCES / INPUTSThe ingredients youneed to implement
your program!
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7651 3 42
CustomersActivities Outputs1rst Order Outcome
2nd Order Outcome
ImpactResources
Program’s Sphere of Influence
Contextual Influences
HOW WHY
Level II Logic ModelLevel II Logic Model
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Understanding the Sphere of InfluenceUnderstanding the Sphere of Influence
Ask your team to estimate their level of confidence that their program will lead to each outcome in the logic model.
• The Strategic Impact
• The Intermediate Outcomes
• The Short-term Identify Performance Partners!
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Elements of Logic ModelsElements of Logic Models Resources / Inputs: Programmatic investments available to
support the program. Objectives / Activities: Things you do– activities you plan to
conduct in your program. Outputs: Product or service delivery/implementation targets you
aim to produce. Customer: User of the products/services. Target audience the
program is designed to reach. Outcomes: Changes or benefits resulting from activities and
outputs. Outcome Structure
• Short-term (K, S, A) – Changes in learning, knowledge, attitude, skills, understanding
• Intermediate (Behavior) – Changes in behavior, practice or decisions
• Long-term (Condition) – Changes in condition External Influences: Factors that will influence change in the
affected community.
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Outputs & OutcomesOutputs & Outcomes
An annual conference disseminates the latest forage research.
Low-income families are better able to manage their resources.
Program staff teach financial management skills to low-income families.
Community volunteers have knowledge and skill to work effectively with at-risk youth.
The camp experience provides leadership development opportunities for 4-H youth.
Forage producers in Pasture County know current research information and use it to make informed decisions.
The program trains and empowers community volunteers.
Campers, aged 12-15 years of age, learn new leadership and communication skills while at camp.
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Outputs & OutcomesOutputs & Outcomes
An annual conference disseminates the latest forage research.
Low-income families are better able to manage their resources.
Program staff teach financial management skills to low-income families.
Community volunteers have knowledge and skill to work
effectively with at-risk youth.
The camp experience provides leadership development opportunities for 4-H youth.
Forage producers in Pasture County know current research information and use it to make
informed decisions.
The program trains and empowers community volunteers.
Campers, aged 12-15 years of age, learn new leadership and
communication skills while at camp.
OUTPUT OUTCOME
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VolunteersVolunteers
If the program is addressing a situation of low volunteer involvement in community affairs and the purpose of the program is to increase volunteering among community residents as a part of a larger community development initiative, then increased numbers of residents volunteering in community life would be an outcome. The outcome is expressed as a behavioral change.
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Number or type of participants who attend; number of clients served. Number or type of participants who attend; number of clients served.
If the purpose of the program is to increase use of a service by an underserved group, then numbers using the service would be an outcome. The outcome is not numbers attending or served; the outcome is expressed as use that indicates behavioral change.
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Participant Satisfaction.Participant Satisfaction.
For our purposes in education and outreach programming, client satisfaction may be necessary but is not sufficient. A participant may be satisfied with various aspects of the program (professionalism of staff, location, facility, timeliness, responsiveness of service, etc) but this does not mean that the person learned, benefited or his/her condition improved.
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Training, Research, ProducingTraining, Research, Producing
These are Outputs. They may be essential aspects that are necessary and make it possible for a group or community to change. But, they do not represent benefits or changes in participants and so are not outcomes. They lead to, result in outcomes, but in and of themselves, they are outputs.
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Steps in the Logic Model ProcessSteps in the Logic Model Process
1. Establish a stakeholder work group and collect documents.
2. Define the problem and context for the program or project.
3. Define the elements of the program in a table.4. Develop a diagram and text describing logical
relationships.5. Verify the Logic Model with
INTERNAL / EXTERNAL stakeholders.6. Then use the Logic Model to identify and confirm
performance measures, and in planning, conducting and reporting performance measurement and evaluation.
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Step 1: Establish work group & collect documents & information. Step 1: Establish work group & collect documents & information.
Convene / consult a work group
• provides different perspectives and knowledge
• attempts agreement on program performance expectations
Review sources of program or project documentation
• Strategic and operational plans
• Budget requests
• Current metrics
• Past evaluations Conduct interviews of appropriate staff
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Step 2: Define problem program addresses & context. Step 2: Define problem program addresses & context.
The ProblemProgram
Addresses
Factors leading to the Problem
123* your niche
The Program
The Context
Drivers of Success
Constraints on Success
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Step 3: Define elements of program or project in a table.Step 3: Define elements of program or project in a table.
External Influences:
Resources/ Activities Outputs Customers Short-term Intermediate Long-termInputs Reached (Change in Attitude) (Change in Behavior) (Change in (Condition)
Outcomes
WHAT & WHY HOW WHO
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Step 4: Develop a diagram & text describing logical relationships.Step 4: Develop a diagram & text describing logical relationships.
We use these resources…1.0
We use these resources…1.0
For these activities…2.0
For these activities…2.0
To produce these outputs 3.0
To produce these outputs 3.0
So that the customers can change these ways.
4.0
So that the customers can change these ways.
4.0
Which leads to these outcomes.
5.0
Which leads to these outcomes.
5.0
Leading to these results!
6.0
Leading to these results!
6.0
Draw arrows to indicate/link causal relationships between logic model elements.
Work from both directions (right-to-left and left-to-right)
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Two Important Rules to FollowTwo Important Rules to Follow
For every action identified in the Logic Model, the must be an output that connects to an outcome through a specific customer.
OR
An action must produce an output that becomes a key input to another activity.
THINK CONNECTIONS!
Logic Modeling Exercise 1
Logic Modeling Exercise 1
Brief application of logic modeling using a United Way
example
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Logic Modeling Exercise Logic Modeling Exercise
GOAL: Provide an opportunity for participants to apply the principles and practices of logic modeling in an interactive setting.
INSTRUCTIONS:
1. The group will be given a set of index cards that contain words or statements that answer the list of questions on the next slide.
2. As a group, review the questions and use the index cards to map out the logic of our case study program on your flip chart paper.
3. When the cards are placed/glued on the paper in the correct order, draw lines connecting the cards to show the logic relationships.
4. When you have completed your logic model, the cards will be ordered so that they describe the program logic and its underlying assumptions (boxes and connecting arrows).
5. Check your logic using if, then and how, why statements. When you have completed this exercise be prepared to report out to the larger group. REMEMBER THE RULES!
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Questions to Guide ModelingQuestions to Guide Modeling
What are the essential resources we need to implement program?
What programs / activities do we have to implement with these people to achieve our results?
What are the outputs of our programs?
Who / what do we need to reach to achieve these results?
What are the short-term and intermediate changes that will enable us to realize our strategic results?
What are the strategic results / long-term environmental outcomes we are aiming for?
What external influences to the program context do we have to be aware of?
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Worksheet Simple Logic Model DiagramWorksheet Simple Logic Model Diagram
EXTERNAL INFLUENCES
Short-term
Outcomes
Outputs
(representativ
e)
Intermediate
Outcomes
Long-Term
OutcomesResources
Activitie
s
Target A
udience
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Action AResources A Outcomes
Action BResources B Outcomes
Action CResources C Outcomes
Strategic Program Results!
“Z” LogicSupplier-Customer Relationship“Z” LogicSupplier-Customer Relationship
Unpacking supports more focused Performance Measurement & thus more useful evaluation, as well as better understanding & communication about how the “Program” is supposed to work!
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Materials Development
Recruitment
Training
Technical Assistance
Website
Resources
Outcomes
Short-term Intermediate Long-termActivities Customers
Developers & builders acquire new technologies & change practice
EPA
State
Local
Private
Increased awareness of harmful effects
Increased awareness of new technologies and incentives
Impact
LEVEL II LOGIC MODEL
Developers/ Builders
Reduction in NPS pollutants in waterways
Healthier Wetlands
More Fish
Clean Beaches
Clean/ Safe/ Swim-able/ Fishable Water
LEVEL I LOGIC MODEL
EPA
State
Local
Private
Improving Water
Quality Training Program
CleanSafe
SwimableFishable
Water
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Resources
Outcomes
Short-term
Intermediate Long-termActivities
Developers and builders acquire new technologies and change practice
•EPA
•State
•Local
•Private
Increased awareness of harmful effects
•Increased awareness of new technologies and incentives
Impact
Developers/ Builders Trained
Reduction in NPS pollutants in waterways
Healthier Wetlands
More Fish
Clean Beaches
Clean/ Safe/ Swim-able/ Fishable Water
LEVEL III LOGIC MODEL
Materials Development
Recruitment
Training
Technical Assistance
Website
Outputs
Materials Ready
Trainees Ready
Trainees Receive TA
Trainees/ Others aware of/using new information
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Strategic Plan Check: GoalsStrategic Plan Check: Goals
Is the goal statement outcome oriented? Does it specify the expected strategic change / impact
for a specific target group (older persons & disabled)? What evidence is available that this impact / change is
important (relevance)? Are there existing needs data? What specific roles, if any, do partners (internal &
external) play in the success of this impact? Are there missing Goals to enable the mission / vision
to be realized? What concerns you most about this goal, right now?
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Strategic Plan Check: ObjectivesStrategic Plan Check: Objectives Is the objective outcome oriented? Does it clearly specify the anticipated change for a
specific target group & why they need to be changed? Does the change relate to the goal? Will success with
this objective lead to success with the goal? (QUALITY) What evidence is available that that this change is
important? Are there existing needs data? What specific roles, if any, do partners (internal &
external) play in the success of this objective? Are there missing Objectives to enable the goal to be
realized? What concerns you most about this objective, right
now?
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Strategic Plan Check: StrategiesStrategic Plan Check: Strategies
Is there a reasonable degree of confidence that strategy will result in achievement of a specific outcome for a specific group?
What evidence is available that this strategy is the right strategy – in comparison to others – to achieve the outcome that is specified?
What specific roles, if any, do partners (internal & external) play in the success of this strategy?
Considering the strategy you’ve adopted, do you have sufficient resources on hand or available to actualize the strategy?
Are there missing strategies to enable the objectives to be realized?
What concerns you most about this strategy, right now?
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Scenario Checking What if’s!Scenario Checking What if’s!
1. Select several external forces & imagine related changes which might influence the SUA, e.g., change in regulations, demographic changes, etc. Scanning the environment for key characteristics often suggests potential changes that might effect the alliance, as does sharing the plan with stakeholders!
2. For each change in a force, discuss 3 different future SUA scenarios (including best case, worst case, & reasonable case) which might arise with the SUA as a result of each change. Reviewing the worst-case scenario often provokes strong motivation to change the SUA – forming partnerships, changing strategy.
3. Conduct likelihood / Impact assessment on each external influence.
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Scenario CheckingWhat if’s!Scenario CheckingWhat if’s!
Select most likely external changes to effect the SUA, e.g., over the next 3-5 years, identify the most reasonable strategies the SUA can undertake to respond to change. Suggest what the SUA might do, or potential strategies, in each of the 3 scenarios to respond to each change.
This process should be repeated for each element of the Logic Model• Program structure – Resources, Activities, Outputs• Outcome structure – Short-term, Intermediate,
Strategic REMEMBER – “NOBODY GETS IT RIGHT THE FIRST
TIME OUT!”
Logic Modeling Exercise 2
Logic Modeling Exercise 2
Brief application of logic modeling focusing on a typical
SUA program
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Logic Modeling Exercise Logic Modeling Exercise
GOAL: Provide an opportunity for participants to apply the principles & practices of logic modeling in an interactive setting.
INSTRUCTIONS:1. Participants will identify 1 SUA program (e.g., community
awareness, home delivered or congregate meals, education) to Logic Model as it operates currently.
2. Group will construct a Level I & Level II Logic Model.
3. After constructing the Models and checking using if, then and how, why questions, the participants should discuss who they might tweak the Model to address Choice.
4. Participants will be prepared to present their Modules to the whole group.
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Benefits of Logic Modeling Benefits of Logic Modeling
Communicates the performance story of the program or project.
Focuses attention on the most important connections between actions and results.
Builds a common understanding among staff and with stakeholders.
Helps staff “manage for results” and informs program design.
Finds “gaps” in the logic of a program and works to resolve them.
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The real value --The real value --
Most of the value in a logic model is in the process of creating, validating, and modifying the model … The clarity in thinking that occurs from building the model and the depth and breath of those involved are critical to the overall success of the process as well as the program.
Adapted from W.K. Kellogg Foundation Handbook, 1998
Logic Modeling, Performance Measurement,
& Evaluation
Logic Modeling, Performance Measurement,
& Evaluation
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Orientations for Performance Measurement & EvaluationOrientations for Performance Measurement & Evaluation
PERFORMANCE MEASUREMENT Accountability, description
• What objectives/outcomes have been accomplished at what levels?
PROGRAM EVALUATION Learning, Program Improvement, Defense
• What factors, internally and/or externally influenced my performance? (Retrospective)
• What effect will this level of performance have on future performance if I don’t do something? (Prospective)
• What roles (+/-) did context play in my performance?
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Key Questions Grantees Need to Answer About Their ProgramsKey Questions Grantees Need to Answer About Their Programs
What am I doing, with whom, to whom/what? (effort) How well am I doing it? (quality)
• Customer Feedback• Peer Review for Technical Quality• User Review for Social Validity
Is anybody (anything) better off? (effect)• Short-term• Long-term
What role, if any, did my program play in the results? What role, if any, did the context play? Were there any unintended outcomes? What will happen if I don’t do something?
Performance Measurement
Program Evaluation
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Pro
gra
m L
og
ic H
iera
rch
y
Hierarch
y of P
erform
ance M
easurem
ent D
ata
Program Logic ElementsMatching Levels of
Performance Information
7. End results
6. Practice and behavior change
5. Knowledge, attitude, and skill changes
4. Reactions
3. Participation
2. Activities
1. Resources
7. Measures of impact on overall problem, ultimate goals, side effects, social and economic consequences
1. Resources expanded; number and types ofstaff involved; time extended
2. Implementation data on what the program actually offers or does
3. The characteristics of program participants and clients; numbers, nature of involvement; background
4. What participants and clients say about the program; satisfaction; interest; strengths; weaknesses
5. Measures of individual and group changes in knowledge, attitude, and skills
6. Measures of adoption of new practices and behavior over time
Performance Measurement Hierarchy
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Two QuestionsTwo Questions
What is the right Outcome?• Short-term• Intermediate• Strategic
Am I getting at the right Outcome, the right way?• Efficiency• Effectiveness
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Types of MeasuresTypes of MeasuresCategory Definition Examples
Resources/
Inputs
Resources consumed by the organization.
Amount of funds, # of FTE, materials, equipment, supplies
Activities Work performed that directly produces core products & services.
# of training classes offered as designed; Hours of technical assistance training for staff.
Outputs Products & services provided as a direct result of program activities.
#of technical assistance requests responded to; # of compliance workbooks developed/delivered.
Customer Reached
Measure of target population receiving outputs.
% of target population trained; # of target population receiving technical assistance.
Customer Satisfaction
Measure of satisfaction with outputs.
% of customers dissatisfied with training; % of customers “very satisfied” with assistance received.
Outcomes Accomplishment of program goals and objectives (short-term and intermediate outcomes, long-term outcomes--impacts).
% in citizen understanding of sound nutrition choices; # communities adopt research-based practices; % in # community-based choices
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Work Quality Measures Work Quality Measures
Category Definition Examples
Efficiency The ratio of the amount of input to the amount of output. Focus is on operating efficiency. Relating output to some specific resource in terms of cost or time.
Cost per workbook produced; cost per meal delivered.
Productivity Measure of the rate of production per some specific unit of resource (e.g., staff or employee). The focus is labor productivity.
Number of meals delivered per volunteer.
CostEffectiveness
Measure that relates outcomes to costs.
Cost per number of persons who are elderly improving nutrient intake
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Defending your Impact ClaimDefending your Impact Claim
Did we observe a change in the anticipated outcome(s) as seen in your performance measures?
Can we connect any element of our program (what we did) to that change using your performance measures?
Are there any rival explanations (usually in the context)?
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Definitions:Definitions:
Performance Measurement:
The ongoing monitoring & reporting of program progress & accomplishments, using pre-selected performance measures.
Performance measure – a metric used to gauge program or project performance.
Indicators – measures, usually quantitative, that provide information on program performance and evidence of a change in the “state or condition” in the system.
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Definitions:Definitions:
Program Evaluation:
A systematic study that uses measurement & analysis to answer specific questions about how well a program is working to achieve its outcomes & why.
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+ DISCREPANCY
- DISCREPANCY
ACTUAL LEVEL OF PROGRAM
PERFORMANCE
STANDARD/ DESIRED LEVEL
OF PROGRAM
PERFORMANCE
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Example Example
Standard: 95% of targeted community-based treatment facilities will adopt BMPs by June 2006.
Performance: 65% of targeted community-based treatment facilities adopt BMPs by June 2006.
Managers’ Question: Should we act and if so, what should we do?
Prospective Evaluation Question:What impact on predicted longer-term impacts will this observed level of performance have?
Retrospective Evaluation Question: What programmatic or contextual factors influenced the observed level of performance?
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The Logic Model & EvaluationThe Logic Model & Evaluation
Longer term
outcome
(STRATEGIC
AIM)
Intermediate
outcome
Short term
outcomeCustomersOutputsActivitiesResources/
Inputs
WHYHOW
PROGRAMRESULTS FROM
PROGRAM
EXTERNAL CONDITIONS INFLUENCING PERFORMANCE (+/-)
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Assessing Strength of Evaluation Design for ImpactAssessing Strength of Evaluation Design for Impact
Is the population representing the counterfactual equivalent in all pertinent respects to the program population before that population is exposed to the intervention – selection bias
Is the intervention the only force that could cause systematic differences between the 2 populations once exposure begins?
Is the full force of the intervention applied to the program population, and is none applied to the counterfactual?• Implementation evaluation• Independence
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In the end Logic Models:In the end Logic Models:
Enable planners to: Develop a more convincing, plausible argument
RE how their program is supposed to work to achieve their outcomes & communicate this to funding agencies & other stakeholders.
Focus their PM/PE on the right elements of performance to enable program improvement & the estimation of causal relationships between & among elements.
Be better positioned to present & defend their claims about their program performance to external stakeholders.