1
A PERSPECTIVE ON ONLINE ADVERTISING AND MEDIA PLANNING
Heuristic
Is any approach to problem solving, learning, or discovery that employs a practical method not guaranteed to be optimal or perfect, but sufficient for the immediate goals.
1. Cognitive Dissonance
2. Confirmation bias
3. Availability bias
7
THE STATE OF DIGITAL…
…and its continued rise
$659 billion $433 billion
$74 billion $18 billion
What would happen if digital wasn’t as powerful as the investment growth
indicates ? There is a lot at stake
• 20 years experience: 120+ clients, 500+ projects
• Client base at c.£58billion revenue
Insurance
Energy Grocery Retail
DIY Retail Pharmaceutical
Automotive
Hygiene/Toiletries
Money Transfer
Charities Travel & Tourism
FMCG Entertainment
A sample of sectors with recent projects…
So we decided to look into it………
14
1,00
0,38 0,32 0,29 0,24
TV RADIO PRESS OOH DIGITAL
Ebiquity Benchmarks: Average ROI Index
3x
Source: Ebiquity database 2008-2016
Cognitive Dissonance Our beliefs might be wrong and these are hard to change.
How many of you here today feel your business would support the case to REDUCE marketing investment in digital advertising?
Hypothetical question:
0 5
15
10
25
5
40
Client AOR ATD DSP Tech/Data fees Exchange Publisher95% 80% 70% 55% 60%
VALUE REDUCTION
*WFA member survey: Oct 2014
40
20
20
Publisher Non-human traffic View ability*
c.65% c.75% Advertiser value loss
NB excludes ad blockers, out-of-target etc
But how is so much money being spent on something that isn’t working well for many
advertisers?
Confirmation Bias We look for evidence that supports
our existing view of the world
Media usage is not the same media effectiveness
Availability Bias We’re measuring the wrong things!
And it takes more effort to measure the right things
Typical Model ‘Dynamic’ Model Helps you understand the Long-Term
Base Base
Short Term Media
Price
Promotions
Base
Long Term Media The Brand Metrics which
really matter
Macro Micro Nano
Integrated modelling system
Econometric modelling
Modelled digital
attribution
Base
Broadcast media
Digital media
TV
Social
Search
Display
Macro Micro Nano
“Measurement is fabulous. Unless you’re busy measuring what’s easy to measure as opposed to what’s important”
Brand versus short-term
Business targets
Long / short-term goals
Right metrics, avoid easy measurement
Consistent framework but customised tactics (macro, micro, nano)
How to plan for media effectiveness
But whilst companies expect to invest more typically diverting spend from broadcast media,
where is the evidence that this is the right path?
0
25
50
75
100
TV Print VOD OOH DigitalDisplay
0
25
50
75
100
Radio Press TV Digital Display PPC
0
25
50
75
100
TV Press Dig Video Braodcast VOD0
25
50
75
100
TV Radio Press OOHDigital DisplayPaid Search VOD
AUTO RETAIL
TRAVEL FMCG
Source: Ebiquity Marketing Effectiveness project 2015-2017
Share of profit
62.5% Share of spend
53.6%
Outdoor Press Radio TV Display VOD TV Spons
Source: Ebiquity Marketing Effectiveness
Relative Price New
launches
Capacity
Service
Competitors
Economy
-ve/+ve PR
Weather Seasonality
Consumer trends
Sponsorship
Online
Outdoor
Press
Radio
TV
Promotion
Attribution quantifies the impact of
all the factors (not just media) to the business
outcome
Econometric modelling
‘Digital Attribution’
Macro Micro
Base
Broadcast media
Digital media
Device
Placement
Strategy
Site
Creative
Digital media
Base
Broadcast media
Digital media
Impact from TV Impact from other offline media Impact from online media Base
Digitally modelled in detail
TV
Online Media
Base
Paid Search
Direct to Site
Final Business Metric
Sales/Order Offline Media
Media channel
Media impact both direct to site and on search
Media impact both modelled on offline and online channels
Full media impact across the customer journey
Brand Advertisin
g
Brand Advertisin
g
Direct Comms
Brand Advertisin
g
Consideration
Brand Image
Brand Personalit
y
Word of Mouth
Advocacy NPS
Quality
Typical econometrics measurement Typical brand tracking measurement
Short Term Sales or Loyalty
Brand Advertisin
g
Changes in Consumer Perceptions
Short Term Sales
Long Term Consideration and Sales
Advertising
Investment
Thank you