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A New Hybrid Travel Demand Model for EMPO: Context and Applications
APA Indiana Fall Planning Conference 201110/21/2011
Aaron Keegan
Bernardin, Lochmueller, and Associates6200 Vogel Rd Evansville, IN 47715
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EMPO Hybrid Travel Demand ModelIn Final Stages
Started in Fall 2009
A New Regional Land Use Model
2012
Sustainable Evansville Area Coalition Plan
Began June 2011
CONTEXT OF MODEL DEVELOPMENT
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TOO
LS• Travel demand model update
– New modes
– New structure
– New sensitivity
– Designed with Land Use Model Interaction in Mind
NEW EMPO TRAVEL DEMAND MODEL
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– A Hybrid Tour-Based Model
– Sensitive to Land Use and Accessibility Variables in Multiple Steps
– Contains a Mode Choice Model (New to EMPO)
NEW EMPO TRAVEL DEMAND MODEL
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•Disaggregate Steps = More Sensitivity and Realism
•Aggregate Steps = Faster Run Time, Shorter Development Time, Lower Cost
TRAVEL DEMAND MODELH
YBRI
D
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HYB
RID
Network
TAZ
Flow Averaging
TrafficAssignment
Departure Time Choice
Stop SequenceChoice
Stop LocationChoice
Tour ModeChoice
Activity/TourGeneration
PopulationSynthesizer
Accessibility
Travel Times
LinkFlows
Trip ModeChoice
Variables Models
Disaggregate M
odelsA
ggregate Models
Vehicle AvailabilityChoice
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No Mode Choice Step In:– 75% of Small MPO Models– 10% of Large MPO Models (Source: TRB SR288)
– Many small MPO’s must weigh small transit/walk shares vs. the expense of mode choice model development
MODE CHOICE
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– An alternative hierarchy, well suited for small and medium urban areas, was applied in the EMPO model
– Alternative hierarchy: mode choice before destination choice
– No transit network development time/cost
– Transit and walk modes use proxy variables such as:
• % of TAZ near bus• % of sidewalks in TAZ• Activity Diversity of TAZ• Density of Intersection Approaches• Employment Accessibility
MODE CHOICE
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MO
DES
• Zonal Mode Shares
• Also sensitive to:– Gas prices
– Income
– Vehicle ownership
• Currently TAZ level results only
MODE CHOICE RESULTS
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TRA
NSI
T • System wide transit ridership forecasts
• Cannot forecast route level
• Transit ridership by zone
• Responds to: – Fares
– Route Coverage
– Headways
NEW MODES
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WA
LK• Residents’ walking/biking by zone
• Responds to:– Sidewalk Coverage
– Network Density/Connectivity
– Mixture of Uses
NEW MODES
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Multiple Travel Model Steps Are Sensitive to Land Use and Accessibility Variables
•Vehicle Availability
•Tour/Activity Generation
•Mode Choice
•Stop Location Choice
SENSITIVITY TO LAND USE
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PLANNING APPLICATIONS
Project Evaluation (TIP, LRP, AQ)
Multi-Modal Performance Measures of Access-Time and Number of Opportunities (Jobs, Schools, Activities)
Time Sequence Model Runs with the Land Use Model
•Urban Form/Mode Choice Interaction• Accessibility/Real Estate Development Interaction
A Tool for The Sustainable Evansville Area Coalition (SEAC) Plan Development Process
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• Land use data being collected (Lots Needed)
• Land use modeling will begin in 2012
• PECAS Model Framework: Production Exchange & Consumption Allocation System
– Model architecture currently being designed
LAND USE MODEL
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LAN
DU
SE • Maximize realism (Parcel Based?)
• Minimize run time (Zone Based?)
• Offer sensitivity to:
– Zoning
– Utilities
– Property & other taxes
– Multimodal access to amenities/ destinations
PRELIMINARY GOALS
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REG
ION
AL
GIS SERIES OF LAYERS
HOUSING • Parcel data• Assessor’s data• Crime statistics• School statisticsTRANSPORTATION• Bike routes• Sidewalks• TransitECONOMICS• InfoGroup data• IMPLAN I/O data• BrownfieldsENVIRONMENT• National land cover data• Arts, culture, recreation• Utilities
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LAN
DU
SE • Travel Demand Model Can Run Independently
• Land Use Model Needs Accessibility Input from Travel Model
• Land Use Model Can Provide Future Year Land Use Scenario results back the to Travel Model
TRAVEL DEMAND AND LAND USE
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A New Hybrid Travel Demand Model for EMPO: Context and Applications
APA Indiana Fall Planning Conference 201110/21/2011
Aaron Keegan
Bernardin, Lochmueller, and Associates6200 Vogel Rd Evansville, IN 47715