a Global Ocean Observing System in a Global Framework for
Climate Services
Albert FischerDirector a.i., GOOS Project Office, IOC/UNESCO
24 August 2011, WMO, Geneva, Switzerland
Monitoring oceans for climate services:Timescales of climate variability and the ocean
An example from the headlines: drought in East Africa
Monitoring oceans for climate services:IPCC AR4 (2007): 100-year projections of temperature and precipitation for Africa
Famine in East Africa today:Short rains season dry at end 2010 due to negative Indian Ocean Dipole
Williams and Funk 2011, Climate Dynamics
Famine in East Africa today:New research on the role of the expanding Indian Ocean Warm Pool (long rains)
Williams and Funk 2011, Climate Dynamics
Global Framework for Climate Services
GOOS: global in situ elements built for climateclimate GOOS is ocean component of GCOSmany in situ networks implemented by JCOMM
Adequacy of satellite ocean ECVs defined by GOOS/GCOS, coordinated by CEOS, CGMS
Some critical pieces have fragile funding: sustainability is an ongoing concern
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A Framework for Ocean Observing• IOC Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO• GEO Group on Earth Observations• CEOS Committee on Earth Observation Satellites• POGO Partnership for Observation of the Global Oceans• SCOR Scientific Committee on Oceanic Research• SCAR Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research• GCOS Global Climate Observing System• GOOS Global Ocean Observing System• JCOMM Joint WMO-IOC Technical Commission for Oceanography and Marine
Meteorology• PICES North Pacific Marine Science Organization• ICES International Council for the Exploration of the Sea• CoML Census of Marine Life• IGBP International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme• WCRP World Climate Research Programme
Input(Requirements)
Output(Data & Products)
Process(Observations)
A Simple System
RequirementRequirement
What to MeasureWhat to Measure
Essential Ocean Variables Essential Ocean Variables
IssuesIssues
Structure of the FrameworkStructure of the Framework
Dat
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Dat
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Dat
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Dat
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Issu
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ObservationsObservations
ArgoArgo
VOSVOS
SatelliteSatelliteConstellationConstellationSOOPSOOP
IOOSIOOS
SatelliteSatellite
… …… …
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IMOSIMOS
Framework: Societal Driver 2010
Weather & Climate•UNFCCC/IPCC
•WCRP•WMO RRR
Regional•Regional Seas•CCAMLR
Framework: Societal Drivers Next Decade
Fisheries•FAO•RFMOs
Ecosystem services/Biology•CBD•CSD•WSSD
Real-time services•Emergency support•Ocean forecasting
Assessments•Global Marine (UN)•TWAP (GEF)•Regional
Weather & Climate•UNFCCC/IPCC•WCRP•WMO RRR•Climate services
RequirementsExpanded EOVs
Expanded observing systems and networks
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Readiness LevelsReadiness Levels
Concept:Initial articulation of ideas, and appropriatefeasibility studies. Increasing Readiness L
evels
Attributes:Peer review of ideas and studies at science, engineering, and data management community level.
Pilot: Plans evolve from draft to projects andvetted in real-world implementation.
Attributes: Planning, negotiating, testing, and approval within appropriate local, regional,
global arenas.
Mature: Requirements, systems, and data become elements of the sustained global ocean observing system.
Attributes: Products of the global ocean observing system are well understood, documented, consistently available, and
of societal benefit.
Reform of GOOS governance
• 26th Session of the IOC Assembly (22 June - 5 July 2011, Paris) ‘streamlined and strengthened’ GOOS governance– GOOS as a holistic system encompassing global, regional and
coastal observations and products– aligned with a Framework for Ocean Observing oriented to an
essential ocean variable approach– GOOS to set requirements based on the needs global conventions
and agreements in climate, natural hazards, biodiversity, safety of life at sea, marine assessment, and regional conventions
– reinforce global participation through capacity development
• new (interim) GOOS Steering Committee– 5 Member State appointed expert members, up to 10 other expert
members, representatives of relevant implementing and coordinating bodies, sponsors
GOOS in a GFCS: outlook
• GOOS is already designed to the set of requirements for climate monitoring, research, and forecasting, expressed in GCOS documents
• GOOS will animate Framework for Ocean Observing processes in setting requirements, coordinating observations (through JCOMM and other mechanisms), and coordinating data systems (also through JCOMM, IODE, and in cooperation with WIS)
• JCOMM Services also examining their contribution to GFCS• Expand the set of requirements we are feeding - Climate
Services will be potentially provide a new set of requirements, and hopefully bring new sustained support to ocean observations — we need to agree how these requirements are expressed to GOOS
Uncertainty: spread in model precipitation projectionsneed for improved monitoring, research, downscaling
Climate change in coastal systems
• Climate change will– increase vulnerability to extreme events– increase coastal erosion– add to human pressures on the coast– conflict with current paths of human development
• Adaptation costs are less than costs of inaction
Sea level rise: global mean
Sea level rise: observed regional rise
Sea level rise and adaptation: vulnerability