A Discussion of the Technology Roadmap
for Productive Nanosystems
Presented to the World Future Society July 30, 2007
David KeenanSteven VetterHank Lederer
Roadmaps
• Semiconductor Roadmaps for example– Equipment– Materials– Processes– Market and applications
DRAM Feature Size
Source: Sematech
DRAM Technology Options Roadmap
Source: Sematech
Semiconductor Roadmap Technology Characteristics
Source: Sematech
Nanotechnology Development• Phase 1 - Passive nanoparticles
– 2000-2005– In products today
• Phase 2 - Active nanoparticles– 2005-2010– In development and demonstration
• Phase 3 - Nanosystems– 2010-2015
• Phase 4 - Molecular Manufacturing– Beyond 2015
Categories of Nanotechnology• Four categories:
– Top down, not atomically precise (like chips)– Top down, atomically precise (can’t be done)– Bottom-up, not atomically precise (like spray-on materials)– Bottom-up, atomically precise
• Highest value-added
• Lowest waste
• Most complex, multi-disciplinary
• Enables large variety of products made by molecular nanosystems
• Highly disruptive technology
• Need a Roadmap to guide R&D
TerminologyNanosystems
• Interacting nanoscale structures, components, and devices
Functional nanosystems • Nanosystems that process material, energy, or information
Advanced functional nanosystems
• Functional nanosystems that incorporate one or more nanoscale components that have atomically precise structures
Productive nanosystems
• Functional nanosystems that make atomically precise structures, components, and devices under programmable control
Atomically precise manufacturing
• Essential for advanced functional nanosystems and productive nanosystems
Summary of Roadmap Vision Elements for Productive Nanosystems Technology
• Revolutionize the chemical/materials industry by synthesizing nanostructured materials
• Aid in manufacturing platform nanomaterial building blocks to create novel nanostructured material formulations
• Require fundamental understanding of structure-property-processing relationships at the nanoscale to accelerate development
• Require a toolkit of kinetic and thermodynamic modeling capabilities and a database on key nanomaterial building block properties
• Offer new synthetic methodologies based on understanding of nanoscale physics, chemistry, and engineering principles
• Offer new approaches to manufacturing nanomaterial building blocks and nanocomposites due to its biological inspiration
• Enable high-throughput nanoscale screening reactors to create novel material solutions and reveal unique structure-property relationships
Stages of Technology Development
Roadmap Leaders
With contributions from• Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI)• NanoBusiness Alliance (NBA)• Nano Science and Technology Institute (NSTI)• Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI)• Biotechnology Industry Organization (BIO)
Steering Committee
Dr. Paul AlivasatosDr. Mauro Ferrari
Doon GibbsWilliam A. Goddard III
Dr. William A. Haseltine
Steve JurvetsonAlex Kawczak
Charles M. LieberScott Mize
John Randall
Jim RobertoNadrian Seeman
Rick SnyderDr. J. Fraser Stoddart
Ted Waitt
Roadmap Goals
• Produce a document that is “actionable”
• Articulate why APM, AFN, & Productive Nanosystems are important, and their critical impact on the development of nanotechnology in multiple timeframes
• Assess the current state of Atomically Precise Manufacturing development
• Identify enabling technologies for development of Advanced Functional Nanosystems & Productive Nanosystems
Roadmap Goals continued
• Develop scenarios of the possible development pathways
• Identify early applications to serve as drivers
• Propose “next steps” in collaborative R&D for each pathway targeted at critical enabling technologies necessary to develop prototypes
• Identify critical issues for each pathway and prioritize the shortcomings of existing enabling technology platforms
• Provide usable metrics for measuring progress
Benefits of Productive Nanosystems Technology Roadmap
• Multidisciplinary framework to shape the visions of future Industry Roadmaps
• Help companies in developing strategic technology plans, including alliance opportunities with other companies
• Basis for coordinating technology research goals and development programs across industries
• Prioritizes major unmet needs and sets technology development targets to fulfill these needs
• Aids in forecasting emerging technology platforms • Identifies emerging value growth opportunities
Estimated Multi-Industry Impact of Nanotechnology Exceeds $1 Trillion by 2015
Source: National Science Foundation
Sustainability $45 B
Healthcare $30 B
Tools $20 B
Aerospace $70 B
Chemical Manufacture $100 B
Pharmaceuticals $180 B
Materials$340 B
Electronics$300 B
Productive Nanosystems: Capabilities and Applications
Productive Nanosystems: Capabilities and Applications
Levels of Productive Capability
Some Atomically Precise Products
Some Applications
Control of monomer
sequence in a chain
Control of monomer positions
in a solid
Control of atomic
positions in a solid
designer catalysts
binders for directingself assembly
polymeric nanoparticles
ceramicnanoparticles
semiconductordevices
superstrongfibers
molecular machines
engineered membranes
smart therapeuticdevices
molecular electronicdevices
petabyte RAMchips
superstrongsmart materials
productivenanosystems
waterpurification
fuel cellmembranes
thin, flexiblesolar cell arrays
programmable cellrepair systems
nanoelectric circuits
aerospacecomposites
• advanced materials
• clean energyproduction
•clean water
• improvedhealth care
• improvedcomputation
• improvedtransportation
Percentage of Roadmap:
Horizon I Horizon II Horizon III Horizon IV
NNI and other Funding
• National Nanotechnology Initiative (NNI) has devoted an average of $1 Billion per year to US R&D since 2001
• Rest of world governments ~ $4 B/yr
Complexity vs. Cost of Phases
• Many simple nanomaterials have been developed within NNI grant budgets
• Several complex nanomaterials are being demonstrated; costs are higher, more time
• Nanosystems may involve more budget than NNI can sustain, and longer timelines
• Molecular manufacturing has received very little NNI funding, so far
Possible Pathways
• Dry – diamondoid– Nanorex, Zyvex
• Wet – DNA/RNA – life chemistry– DNA Walker / Seeman, Rothmund
• Wet/Dry – combinatorial chemistry– Rungs and ladders / Schafmeister
Indications and Implications of Nanotechnology Progress
Near and far future impacts in
• Medicine
• Energy
• Environment / Sustainability
• Manufacturing
• Security / Military
• Space Development
• Computation
Medicine / Pharmaceuticals• Gold nanoparticles
attach to cancer cells and permit non-invasive IR heating
Nanoscale Medical Devices
Nanomedicine by Robert A. Freitas Jr.
Volume I 1999Volume IIA 2003Volume IIB in progressVolume III planned
First thorough analysis of possible applications of molecular nanotechnology to medicine and medical devices
RespiriocytesArtificial mechanical red blood cell ~1 micron dia. sphereDiamondoid 1000-atm pressure vesselDeliver 236x more O2 than natural red cells18 billion structural atoms plus 9 billion O2
Clottocytes
• Artificial mechanical blood platelet
• Response time 100-1000x faster than natural system
• ~ 2 micron spheres release locally sticky mesh that traps blood cells to stop bleeding
Artificial Neurons
Energy • Batteries for
pluggable hybrid vehicles
• Hydrogen storage for fuel cells
• Solar energy
Energy MIT nanowires for Li ion batteries
Gold and cobalt oxide self-assembled on modified virus
Environment / Sustainability• Craig Venter
Synthetic Genomics minimal lifeforms– Method for modified
microorganisms plants to produce ethanol directly from cellulose
– Another to produce hydrogen directly from sunlight
Manufacturing Printing Solar Panels
• MicroFab technologies – ink jet
Manufacturing Printing Solar Panels
• Nanosolar, Inc. – direct printing
• NJIT – printing and directly painted-on
Design for Molecular Manufacturing
Modeling for Molecular Manufacturing
Source Nanorex
Desktop Manufacturing
Convergent assembly using highly parallel systems
Desktop Manufacturing• Nanorex NanoEngineer-1
• Play nanofactory.mov 5 min
Surveillance• Ubiquitous
Surveillance• Sensors/Transmitters
shrink –> smart dust• Can see what
everyone is doing – stop crime– Privacy vs. security– Who watches the
watchers?
DARPA Sensor Challenge
Security / Military
• Military Intelligence is not just an oxymoron– It provides a strong edge in
conflict
• National immune system• MIT’s ISN Institute for
Soldier Nanotechnologies• Personal enhanced
immune system• Weapons disarmament• Volatile transitions
http://web.mit.edu/ISN/
Space Development
• Materials with 80x strength/weight ratio of Al or Steel
• Private orbital craft
• Finally realize Gerard K. O’Neill’s vision of Space Settlements
Island One
Inside Island One
Larger Settlement
Space Development• Eventually, colonize other star systems• Mobile space settlement
– Constant (1-g) acceleration / deceleration– Carry portable fusion generator– Get to Alpha Centauri in about 8 years (4 subjective
years)• Alternatively, teleportation
– Move receiver/assembler to destination• Can use laser-propelled solar sail
– Analyze molecular structure of people / objects– Transmit analysis– Assemble copy
Electronics / Computation• K. Eric Drexler’s
PhD Thesis (MIT) – Nanosystems
• 1992 Computer Science book of the year
Rod Logic
Sugar-cube-size computer 1015 MIPS
Electronics / Computation• Ray Kurzweil forecasts human-level intelligence ~2020• Once achieved, “evolution” will greatly accelerate
Productive Nanosystems
New Futures in
• Medicine
• Energy
• Environment / Sustainability
• Manufacturing
• Security / Military
• Space Development
• Computation
Roadmap Status
International Technology Roadmap for Productive Nanosystems
to be unveiled
October 9-10, 2007
in Arlington, VA
For a complete program, see
www.foresight.org or
www.sme.org/nanosystems
Q & A
• Which path do you favor?
• When will we see productive nanosystems?
David Keenan – [email protected]
Steve Vetter – [email protected]
Hank Lederer – [email protected]