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Attacking the
Centre of Gravity
Military Approachto
Business Planning
Graeme Davis [email protected]
13 Aug 2003
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Mission
My mission here today is to overview the
Military Appreciation Process (MAP) in
order to assist you improve yourbusiness planning.
Appreciation - estimation, judgementConcise Oxford
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References
Any good book storeCNN/FoxSun Tzu - The Art of War
Clausewitz - On Warwww.dodccrp.org/ActivitiesAustralian Infantry Magazine - April 2003Moving Mountains - LTGEN Gus Pagonis
Front Line Logistics - Supply Chain Review
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COMBINED AND JOINT
[No BSU is an Island]
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The nicest thing about not planning is
that failure comes as a complete
surprise thus avoiding months ofworry and angst.
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Some New Jargon Asymmetric Warfare
Attritionist Centre of Gravity
Commanders Intent
Critical Vulnerability Decisive Events
Directive Control
End State
Lines of Operation MAP
Mission
Situational Awareness SMEAC
SNAFU
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Situational AwarenessEye on the Ball, Finger on the
Pulse
You must live and breath
the Situation, plan within it,and then, as changes occur,
review and modify the
Plan as appropriate.
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GLOBAL
POLITICS
MEDIA PRODUCT
CLIMATE
COMPETITOR
PERSONNEL
RESOURCES
ECONOMY
CULTURE
&
RELIGION
LEGAL
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS
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Failures that plunged
UK operations into crisis
AMP chief executive Andrew Mohl
thought he understood the depth of theproblems in the UK operations ..
AFR 3 May 03
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Situational Awareness is not enoughTo achieve the Mission you must have a Plan
Military planning previously only went to H-Hour.
Now it plans toEnd State.
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Individual - Field Commander
MILITARY APPRECIATION PROCESS
Staff- Headquarters
Joint - Army/Navy/Air Force
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Intelligence
Personnel (HR)
Current Operations
Logistics
Future Operations
Communications
Civil Affairs
Public Relations
Training
Health
Legal
Chaplain
FinanceDiscipline
HQ STAFF
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Military Appreciation Process
Courses ofAction
Mission
A B
Analysis (eg Wargame)
C
Decision(Best/Modified)
Detailed Plans
Prepared
Review&
Confirm
Commanders
Intent
Execution
PurposeMethodEnd State
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Centre of Gravity
That characteristic, capability or localityfrom which a force, or nation derives
its freedom of action,strength or
will to fight
Could include weapons (eg tanks,
cargo ships, air force, satellites),
leadership (eg Churchill, Gandhi) or
national resolve (eg Viet Cong)
Both Blue and Red forces have a COG
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Corporate
Centre of Gravity What is your competitive strength ?
What worries you about your competitor ?
Could include;
key personnel (sales, IT, production)
faster and less expensive equipment
multiple sites
prepared to accept reduced margin
friendly banker
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Commanders Intent
The Commander (Board/CEO) has a vision of wherethe force (business) will be in x weeks/months/years.
The vision is expressed as Purpose, Method and End
State.
For the military it could be capture of City Y.
For a business it could be to capture 30% of the widget
market from competitor Z by designing a faster and
cheaper widget.
Commanders Intent leads to preparation of the Mission
Statement.
Mi i St t t
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Mission StatementWho, What, Where, When, Why
but not How!! Your mission Mr Phelps is to
Military - B Company is to clear Hill 123
by 1500 hours 14 August in order to protectthe right flank of the Battalion advance.
Corporate - The Marketing Department is
to prepare and execute a plan that willincrease revenue from Product AA by 15%
in order for XYZ Ltd to achieve its 30 June
profit projections.
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Critical Vulnerabilities
Determine where the Red Force is vulnerableand then attack that point.
Military example 1: The Afrika Corps had
mobility, tanks and air superiority but relied onsupplies (eg fuel) coming from Europe. The
supply chain was critical in achieving
Rommels Mission but it was vulnerable to
attack.
Military example 2 : Night Vision Goggles
enable 24 x 7 combat. Blue Force has the
advantage if Red Force does not have them.
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Corporate Vulnerabilities
Through situational awareness you identifiedyour competitors COG and where he is
vulnerable.
Vulnerabilities could include:dissatisfied key personnel (poaching)
major clients who would transfer their business
negative cashflow/profitability (sustainability)shareholders - are they happy with the dividend ?
obsolete infrastructure (competitiveness)
environmental constraints eg labour availability/cost
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The Plan
You have received Guidance from the
Commanderand you know what is happening in
the marketplace because of yourSituationalAwareness
All you have to do is prepare and execute a Plan
Lets quickly revise the MAP
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Military Appreciation Process
Courses of
Action
Mission
A B
Analysis (eg Wargame)
C
Decision(Best/Modified)
Detailed Plans
Prepared
Review&
Confirm
Commanders
Intent
Execution
WE ARE
AT
THIS
STAGE
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COURSES of ACTION (1)
You move from Current State toEnd State by
strikingat the enemies (competitors) COG while at
the same time protecting your own COG. Determine Courses of Action (COA) - options
COA should be significantly different
Each COA consists of co-ordinated and sequenceddecisive events (milestones) that progress towards
the enemys COG by the destruction or
neutralisation of their critical vulnerabilities
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AFRIKA CORPS
COG was mobility, armour and air
superiority
Critical Vulnerability was the supply chain -without fuel they were immobile
The Allied plan was to disrupt the supply
chain by using the Navy to attack convoys inthe Mediterranean and Special Forces in the
desert to blow up fuel dumps and parked
aircraft
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SECOND GULF WAR
The sea port near Basra was closed to shipping
due to a few WW1 vintage mines - Coalition
supply chain was impacted.
Coalition road convoys were attacked.
Severe dust storms restricted visibility,
movement and targeting.
Did the Coalition think the fighting would end
when the Regime (COG) was beaten ?
With the benefit of hindsight perhaps the
Coalitions End State was poorly defined.
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USS COLE Two (2) terrorists in a
rubber boat loaded with400-700kg of explosive
17 deaths and 39 injuries
$240M repair bill
14 months out of service
Example ofAsymmetric
Warfare where an
adversary pits strengthagainst a weakness,
sometimes in an
unconventional manner
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Corporate
Asymmetric Warfare
ASK YOURSELF
If I want to obtain a larger share of the
market do I attack head on (Attritionist) or
should I adopt Asymmetric tactics?
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COURSES of ACTION (2)
Having developed COA they need to be:
Tested - eg Wargame, Monte Carlo simulations,
third party/due diligence reviews, pilot launchModified if the situation has changed or a better
way is identified
Select the one most likely to succeed Obtain stakeholder (Commander) sign-off
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POLITICS
MEDIAPRODUCT
CLIMATE
COMPETITOR
PERSONNEL
RESOURCES
ECONOMY
CULTURE
&
RELIGION
LEGAL
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Military Appreciation Process
Courses of
Action
Mission
A B
Analysis (eg Wargame)
C
Decision(Best/Modified)
Detailed Plans
Prepared
Review&
Confirm
Commanders
Intent
Execution
WE ARE
AT
THIS
STAGE
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Detailed Planning & Execution
Military precision; went like clock-work;timed to the minute; or SNAFU ?
A detailed project plan needs to be prepared,
communicated and controlled.In the first Gulf War 75% ofcontainers had to be
opened on the wharf as their manifests were
unreliable
Lack ofasset tracking meant that they could not
find a misplaced dozer blade
Different religions have different Holy Days - this
has to be res ected and factored into the lan
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2003 Gulf War
New Approach to Logistics New technology and logistics capability allowed our
forces to move further and faster.. with very deadly
effectiveness Weve gotten out of the business of warehousing
huge mountains of inventories, but we still manage
small hills of critical and high-demand items
RFID and tracking technology meant the forces couldadvance much faster and further along much thinner
supply lines
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Presenting and Selling the Plan
SMEACSituation
MissionExecution
Administration
Control
I took the chart I had been briefing (Schwarzkopf) and wrote -
Logisticians will not let you or our soldiers down.
LTGEN William G Pagonis, 29 Dec 1990
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COMPETITOR REACTION !
No plan survives the first shot.US Defence Secretary Rumsfeld
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ART & SCIENCE
The MAP is a proven technique but for best
results it requires practitioners to use
both sides of their brain:
Left - Sequential Analysis
Creative Solutions - Right
G t Wh
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Go to Whoa
Current
State
End
State
Situational Awareness
Commanders Intent
Mission
Courses of Action Identified
Courses of Action Analysed
Decision
Detailed Plan (Orders) Prepared
Execution
Decisive EventsEnemy Centre of Gravity
Contingenc Lines of Operation
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With apologies to
General George Patton
It is better to develop and execute a
workable plan in a timely manner
as opposed to continuing to develop
the perfect plan on the wayto the PW cage - or bankruptcy!
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